[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, February 13, 2021 Bitcoin Markets |
| [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, February 13, 2021 Posted: 12 Feb 2021 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| Bitcoin Storm Tracker: Feb 13th Weekly Recap and Projection Posted: 13 Feb 2021 09:13 AM PST TL;DR: Last week's predictions have played out as expected so far. Couldn't predict Tesla's big announcement, but in retrospect it was inevitable. 40k euro resistance is futile! -Pullback expected after a local top around $60k at the beginning of March. This has not changed since last week. -The bull cycle model predicts we will not go below $40k until this cycle is over with 99.73% confidence (3 standard deviations). If price breaks below this level model is invalidated. -The predicted crash dates are moving further back as predicted, indicating the current price action is healthy. Current critical date bull cycle end is end of August 2021 (pushed back from end of June 2021 last week). -Other adoption analysis from @woonomic combined with my analysis suggests the fundamental price floor may rise faster than expected (possibly 90x price in ~5 years?). -At writing time, the LPPL-autoregressive model predicts we're at $47.2k, in the expected price range of $43.8k-$51.0k. The true price was $47.1k. The model predicts an expected price range of $44k-$56k tomorrow, and $51.5-$66.8k this time next week. In the post I talk a bit more about the LPPL model, the assumptions it makes, and link to other analysis made during the 2017 bull run that used LPPL and predicted the date of the top. I would like to remind readers this post is a purely educational exercise. I'm fitting models based on data and am probably wrong. Don't construe this analysis as investment advice, I am not an investment advisor and you should seek one out before making decisions with your money. See the full post here: https://numbermath.substack.com/p/bitcoin-storm-tracker-feb-13th-weekly [link] [comments]  |
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