[Daily Discussion] Wednesday, May 30, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

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• [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, May 30, 2018
• [Altcoin Discussion] Wednesday, May 30, 2018
• Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
• Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bullish Outside Day Hints Further Recovery Ahead
• *CoinDNA Daily Re-cap*
• What do you use to check prices, volume, orders, etc?
• Portfolio tracking software (not website!)

[Daily Discussion] Wednesday, May 30, 2018 Posted: 29 May 2018 09:05 PM PDT Thread topics include, but are not limited to: General discussion related to the day's events Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post Thread guidelines: Be excellent to each other. Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above. Other ways to interact: Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group Set your flair to trade pretend money in the Flair Game Weekly threads: Newbie Mondays and Fundamentals Fridays Altcoins Discussion: Altcoin Discussion submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

[Altcoin Discussion] Wednesday, May 30, 2018 Posted: 29 May 2018 09:05 PM PDT Thread topics include, but are not limited to: Discussion related to recent events Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies General questions about altcoins Thread guidelines: Be excellent to each other. All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading. This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning. No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only. If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too. Other ways to interact: Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group and check out the #altcoins channel Daily Discussion for bitcoin only: Daily Discussion Prior Altcoin Discussion: Altcoin Discussion submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call Posted: 30 May 2018 08:43 AM PDT The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a "revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.  Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.  Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall "well below" 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution's revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:  Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.  Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different" to justify what's going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "  Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one's portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights. submitted by /u/Ivo333 [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bullish Outside Day Hints Further Recovery Ahead Posted: 29 May 2018 11:48 PM PDT As originally published via CoinLive The aggressive rebound off $7k suggests prospects of further recovery. The increased in the buy-side volume supports the move higher. The market should remain short-term bullish while above $7.2k. BTC/USDT - Access Full Scale Chart via TradingView  On the daily chart, a bullish outside day is pre-emptive of a potential extension of the bullish momentum after the vigorous rejection off a key support at $7k. The buy-side volume was slightly higher than its preceding day, suggesting an increase in the commitment by buyers. The prospects of a recovery towards the area of support-turned-resistance circa $8k should be on the cards short term. The break above Tuesday's highs shows the right bullish intent for such upward continuation.  On the hourly chart, we saw two consecutive green candles with huge volumes, allowing a $500 recovery which has found acceptance near the highs. The volume profile for Tuesday, with the majority of the volume concentrated on the upper end communicates a market that is building value at higher levels. The impulsiveness of the move up has also confirmed the formation of a first bullish cycle on the hourly, with two volume nodes acting as dynamic supports on any potential setbacks. In the short term, as long as the market can hold above the latter point of control at $7.2k, the prospects for a continuation of the bullish bias is quite possible. Footnotes: Given the discrepancies in price levels on different exchanges, in order to keep our technical studies consistent, the chart selected for analysis is generally the dominant by trading volume. Extrapolate levels to your own respective charts. The dash lines are utilized to represent the latest cycles. Markets tend to move in cycles of 3 followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. Cycles are repetitive patterns that provide both market magnitude and timing studies. The volume profile analysis tracks trading activity over a specified time period at specified price levels. The study reveals dominant and/or significant price levels based on volume. This process allows understanding market opacity. The yellow rectangles in the chart represent the areas of most interest by trading volume, and should act as walls of bids/offers that may result in price reversals. Technical analysis is subject to fundamental-led news (inter-dependent). Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term, while still respecting the most distant price references given submitted by /u/Ivo333 [link] [comments]

*CoinDNA Daily Re-cap* Posted: 30 May 2018 09:25 AM PDT CoinDNA 05/30/18 Bitcoin Maintains Gains at $7500, IOTA Price Rallies after Trinity Beta Release The market seems to be showing some positive signs after Bitcoin dropped to a month-low price of $7,040 and held onto the gains from an earlier surge to $7500. The current surge is as a result of a volume shortage in the preceding 24 hours and could qualify for a bull-run formation, potentially taking the market up higher. This has yet to show signs of a long term recovery and appears to be a short term correction compared to the anticipated support levels of $10,000 and $12,000. The rest of the market is in a similar holding pattern as we await a catalyst for further direction. IOTA Price Surges after Trinity Wallet Receives Beta Release After the IOTA Trinity Wallet beta release, MIOTA has surged to post a double digit gain after trading in the red for the last few weeks. Over the last 24 hours the coin has traded at the $1.60 level, with significant gains of 14.90% and 9.66% against the USD and BTC respectively. The Trinity wallet is a community based project that has culminated in a more secure and robust application. IOTA users will no longer rely on third party wallets that may expose them to vulnerabilities. The new wallet client is designed for those who are not tech savvy, and will give the coin holder a better user experience that was missing on the older version. The new wallet is already live in the market and ready to use as a iOS, Android, desktop and paper wallet. This is the second major announcement for IOTA within the last few days, as they also announced a partnership the the UN to improve their technology. Currencies Direct Tests Ripple Technology Currencies Direct, a Foreign Exchange (FX) company in the United Kingdom has confirmed it is piloting the Ripple technology for its money transfer services. Currencies Direct has already confirmed it has tested the xRapid money transfer software and the transactions are seamless and have been completed in seconds. Once the feature is implemented, it will help the FX fix its customer service issues. According to the Currency Direct Chief Product Officer, Brian Harris: "Our goal is to offer the best possible service. We believe that utilizing cryptocurrencies in this way - as a transfer of value, rather than as a store of value - is the next logical step for our industry. It is, after all, the intended purpose of cryptocurrencies and we're proud to be leveraging new technology to deliver the most convenient and seamless experience for our customers." Once implemented, this will be a big boost for Ripple (XRP) as it seeks to increase its use cases and make the coin more practical in application. Court Ruling Halts Zimbabwe Crypto-Trading, Seeking Reinstatement With the ongoing regulatory requirements still cracking down hard on the cryptocurrency trading front, the Zimbabwe government has halted digital coin trading. However, Golix and Styx24, the largest exchanges in the country are still seeking reinstatement of its bank accounts to continue trading. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe previously directed exchanges to stop supporting cryptocurrency trading which resulted in Golix applying for a court order from the High Court to bar the central bank from implementing the ban. Although the ban remains in effect traders hope the high court decision will help exchanges resume operations soon. The company sent this email to its users in response to queries by traders and investors on future cryptocurrency trading: "Please do not attempt to make deposits to Golix until we announce that we have resumed trading and that it is now safe to do so. Right now we are not conducting any OTC transactions" Golix, which has an ATM in the capital city Harare and pairs BTC, ETH and other major digital currencies, stated that it's in the processes of engaging the authorities to enable its operations to resume. https://dna.coinve.st/news/articles/2018-05-30/Bitcoin-Maintains-Gains-at-$7500,-IOTA-Price-Rallies-after-Trinity-Beta-Release submitted by /u/CoinvestHQ [link] [comments]

What do you use to check prices, volume, orders, etc? Posted: 29 May 2018 03:27 PM PDT Hi folks, Newbie trader here asking for some advice. Learning TA and candle sticks. My question is, if there are many sources to check prices and orders, and if there are many different exchanges, what do you guys use to strategize? I have been using gdax and now Coinbase pro. My other question is, btc prices are about the same across exchanges, doesn't that imply there are times when prices are affected significantly on one exchange first before all other exchanges follow? If so, is it strategic to keep an eye on multiple exchanges at once to keep a pulse on the market or is that not necessary since all prices on different exchanges seem to follow each other on the most part? And if there are resources that dive deeper in this topic, please let me know! Thank you for your time! submitted by /u/WhiteHatMD [link] [comments]

Portfolio tracking software (not website!) Posted: 30 May 2018 06:48 AM PDT I'm struggling to find any crypto portfolio management software which is not a web based service or just a client of some website. At the moment I use Excel but all the API calls are through VBA which requires a PC. Is there any nice software out there, ideally for macOS X which is self-contained? (NB, I use API calls for CoinMarketCap to get stats like circulation, ticker, last price, etc) submitted by /u/opacey [link] [comments]

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