[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, January 08, 2022 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, January 08, 2022
- We're still in a wyckoff accumulation, keep calm. I posted this here a month ago.
- Who Bought This Dip? Circa 2014.
- [Daily Discussion] - Friday, January 07, 2022
- NYDIG Research Weekly: January 7, 2022
- The only P2P non-ID marketplace that lives up to Coinbase, E-Toro etc.....
- My Bitcoin Thesis - 2022 and Beyond
- I analyzed all RSI movements of the past 52 months and this is what I found
- BTC - $13,900 is possible.
- [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, January 06, 2022
- [Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, January 05, 2022
| [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, January 08, 2022 Posted: 07 Jan 2022 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| We're still in a wyckoff accumulation, keep calm. I posted this here a month ago. Posted: 07 Jan 2022 01:46 AM PST Over a month ago when we flash crashed and wicked down to 42k I predicted we would enter a wyckoff accumulation phase with a range-binding from 52k to 40k. I also posted it here and it's interesting to see the comments back then and the sentiment change to now: I did chart this on December 5th on Tradingview and defined the upper range to be 52k, the lower range to be 40k. The prediction held up nicely so far (click the play button on the chart: I'd love to know what the sentiment to this analysis is right now. What do you think? Is this prediction correct? Are we having a spring phase or a secondary test right now? Will we stay range bound above 40k? Personally, I stick to my predictions so I hedged (shorted) part of my portfolio at 52k and gradually unhedged my short positions down to 42k. I can see how much fear and bearish sentiment we're having right now and that's making me believe we've hit the bottom soon. Most of retail has left and institutions have little supply to accumulate. [link] [comments] |
| Who Bought This Dip? Circa 2014. Posted: 08 Jan 2022 12:14 AM PST When BTC trading was truly the wild west. Who remembers the BTC-e days? The Mt. Gox Days? Things sure have changed. Anyone who's been around long enough to remember literally being on a circadian rhythm that matched the China time zone, despite living in the US... staying up all night, sleeping during the day.... only to wake up to TeamSpeak/Google Hangouts group going nuts. I miss these days, and glad to say I still have sats that date back to these days... The sentimental sats. [link] [comments] |
| [Daily Discussion] - Friday, January 07, 2022 Posted: 06 Jan 2022 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| NYDIG Research Weekly: January 7, 2022 Posted: 07 Jan 2022 12:15 PM PST IN TODAY'S ISSUE: We take a look at what has been driving both crypto and traditional markets Turmoil in Kazakhstan highlights the importance of political stability for miners Survey reveals the top concern of institutional investors for digital assets Crypto Markets (And Traditional Markets) Fall on a Hawkish Fed On Wednesday at 2 PM, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December FOMC meeting. In the minutes, there appeared an alarming consensus that the Fed should begin raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet as soon as possible once its taper is completed as anticipated in March 2022. This degree of hawkishness had already been communicated by the Fed in several forms, and so it is perhaps surprising that investors had a strong reaction to the news. Fed dot plots from that December meeting, released immediately after the meeting, showed an anticipated three rate hikes in 2022. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech soon after the December meeting that balance sheet reduction could start in 2022. But if the information was not entirely new, investors were perhaps caught off guard by the forcefulness and level of consensus shown in the minutes. What's for certain is that investors quickly reacted, sending many traditional financial markets, as well as crypto, down. There did not appear to be any fundamental news in the crypto space and liquidations, while elevated, were not notable. We have written extensively in recent months about the increasing relationship between crypto and traditional markets, and so we will be keeping a close eye on the actions of the Federal Reserve going forward. The next FOMC meeting is January 25th - 26th and the next CPI reading is January 12th. Hash Rates Fall Amid Kazakhstan Internet Shutdown In recent days, Kazakhstan has faced significant protests, sparked by the government's decision to lift price caps on fuel amid energy shortages, leading to significant price increases. Attempting to tame the protests, the government shut down the internet. In the wake of China's ban on mining, a number of Chinese miners crossed the border into Kazakhstan. Prior to the protests, the nation controlled nearly 20% of the world's hash rate. Since bitcoin mining requires internet access to download blocks and transactions and propagate new blocks, this effectively shut down mining in the country. With the internet still down, this provides a boon to miners outside of the country who are now more likely to win blocks and collect rewards. Despite bitcoin being a supranational currency, operations that support the network still occur within national boundaries. Miners need energy, internet, and government approval to operate, and the continued provision of these interrelated needs can be suddenly stopped in nations that lack stability. When miners left China, we believe that this improved the stability of the long-term Bitcoin network (as well as its environmental profile). If miners were to leave Kazakhstan to freer and steadier nations following the latest conflagration, it would likely have a similar impact. The episode also reinforced how vital it is that network hash rate is globally distributed rather than concentrated and exposed to the whims of a few governments. Custody is Still the Top Institutional Investor Concern This week, a survey from crypto asset manager Nickel Digital Asset Management highlighted the chief concern of institutional investors in the space, asset custody. The survey, reported in the media, said that 79% of respondents representing $108.4B in assets under management cited secure storage of digital assets as the key consideration whether to invest in the space. Our conversations with investors new to the industry echo similar concerns, which stem from the core nature of Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is technology that removes trust from a central entity and places it in the hands of the network participants: miners, node operators, and those that own bitcoin. Bitcoin has been called a "digital bearer instrument", which to us means that whoever possesses the private key, the password that allows one to move bitcoins, has the right to the asset itself. Given this technological innovation, it should come as no surprise that institutional investors are concerned with the safeguarding of their private keys. While counterparty risks exist in the traditional markets, something that was on full display during the Global Financial Crisis, losing your securities or having them stolen is not a threat historically borne by traditional market investors. We understand the concern and therefore encourage those entering the space to perform adequate due diligence on service providers. It is just as important as the investment analysis itself. Market Update market data.jpg Bitcoin fell -8.4%, with much of the losses occurring on the back of the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Equities also fell on the week, with the S&P 500 down -1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite down -4.2%. Gold fell -0.9%. Bonds decreased on the week, with Investment Grade Corporate Bonds falling -1.8%, High Yield Corporate Bonds depreciating -1.1%, and Long-Term U.S. Treasuries decreasing -3.1%. Real yields increased and inflation expectations modestly decreased. Important News This Week Investing: Bitcoin Can Reach $100K, Goldman Sachs Says – CoinDesk Bitcoin Falls as Fed Minutes Appear Hawkish – Federal Open Market Committee Crypto Security Is Biggest Concern for Institutional Investors – Bloomberg Regulation and Taxation: Mining Pool Hashrates Fall amid Kazakhstan Internet Shutdown – The Block Congress Preparing Hearing on Mining's Environmental Impact – The Block London Travel Network Cracks Down on Crypto Ads – The Block Former CFTC Chair Proposes Means for Unifying Crypto Regulation – The Block Estonia Regulator Says No Plans to Ban Crypto – CoinDesk NYDFS Hires Deputy Superintendent For Crypto – LinkedIn Companies: CSI and NYDIG to Provide Financial Institutions Access to Bitcoin – NYDIG, CSI BTCS to Offer a Dividend Payable in Bitcoin – BTCS Upcoming Events Jan 12th – U.S. CPI data release Jan 25-26th – FOMC meeting Jan 28th – Bitcoin futures and options expiry on CME [link] [comments] |
| The only P2P non-ID marketplace that lives up to Coinbase, E-Toro etc..... Posted: 07 Jan 2022 05:45 AM PST |
| My Bitcoin Thesis - 2022 and Beyond Posted: 07 Jan 2022 07:15 AM PST Note: I originally posted this on r/bitcoin. It was removed because it mentions "shitcoins". I'm not sure how that subreddit can pretend to have any meaningful discourse while simultaneously labeling everything else in the cryptocurrency industry as a "shitcoin". To me it further shows that Bitcoin investors are using more of a faith-based approach versus a pragmatic approach. I'd like to outline my thesis on Bitcoin for 2022 and beyond. I have been involved in BTC for a long time and I have been very bullish on the network in the past. However, I don't believe in falling in love with an asset. I believe in constantly reviewing your thesis, since the industry and environment are highly dynamic. So, here are my criticisms on BTC and why I think it will underperform in the short/mid term:
So there you have it. I'm sure you'll be tempted to tell me I'm an asshole, since you are probably a BTC investor. But I'd really love to hear your critical responses to my concerns. I would love to see Bitcoin succeed and continue to dominate the market. I just don't see how to get excited about the project as it is today, especially compared to its peers. [link] [comments] |
| I analyzed all RSI movements of the past 52 months and this is what I found Posted: 06 Jan 2022 03:00 AM PST I analyzed all RSI range movements (30 - 70) of BTC of the past 52 months on the daily chart and realised that each time the RSI drops near, to, or below 30 (oversold), the price of BTC reverses and rises again. Currently, BTC is at the bottom of the range again which begs the question whether the price will rise again? Check my analysis: https://preview.redd.it/zpdt4cm611a81.png?width=1900&format=png&auto=webp&s=df8169aed9214b5778b18a3038191dc729adf905 [link] [comments] |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2022 02:42 PM PST Thoughts? I'm really looking for bull-thesis to support the idea we hold the line around $41K. But I just ... am getting more pessimistic based on my results below. BTC is mirroring the change in real rate yields of 10-year bonds. The 10 year negative rate rose from -1.17 to -0.73 and BTC fell from ~68,000 to $41,800 so far....an almost exact match of about 37.6% and 38% respectively. 10-year nominal rates are expected to reach 2% to 2.25% which - while inflation remains high (assuming it doesn't change at all) will put the real rate yields near -0.49 to -0.24. Worst case scenario that we can predict is -1.17 to -0.24 or about 20.5% meaning BTC can reach $13,940 down from $68,000. I ran the numbers for February 2021 lowest rate and March 2021 highest rate, and correlated it to the drop in price as well. Real rate yields changed 53.7% and BTC changed 48.1%. I don't know why the timing was skewed but I figured it might have to do with massive FOMO and retailers and exuberance. The latest rally was more sobering and concentrated to professionals so it dropped more timely and more precisely. [link] [comments] |
| [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, January 06, 2022 Posted: 05 Jan 2022 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, January 05, 2022 Posted: 04 Jan 2022 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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