[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, December 02, 2021 Bitcoin Markets |
| [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, December 02, 2021 Posted: 01 Dec 2021 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| 2017 vs 2021: Periodic ATHs & Local Lows Posted: 16 Nov 2021 11:21 AM PST
These charts compare the recurring ATHs and interim dips from the 2016 halving cycle and the 2020 halving cycle. For parity's sake, both cycles are measured starting 8 months after the (July 2016; May 2020) halving dates.
2017 Data
2021 Data
A few observations:
[1] The 2021 PA is like a hybrid of 2013 (featuring a double top with a sustained lull in between) and 2017 (featuring a cycle of ATHs, dips, and new ATHs for a 9-month period). 2021 had a 5+-month… struggle… from May to late September, with periodic ATH resets prior to, and following, that time out.
[2] The dips in 2017 were not appreciably harsher than this year. Indeed, the 53% dip in May 2021 was by far the worst of either cycle. But the gains (measured by % increase of each new ATH over the prior one) were much more generous in 2017. The most recent four ATHs in 2021 saw increases of 5, 5, 3, and 2%, respectively. By contrast, the final three ATHs in 2017 included increases of 59% and 51% over the prior ATHs (set just weeks earlier).
[3] The dips were 'quicker' in 2017 - the time between a new ATH and the next local low was shorter in 2017 than this year. That is likely why the comparative percentage decreases between 2017 and 2021 might not sync with your (my!) memory of 2017 feeling WAY more out of control. It was, in this sense: The giant 52% plummet in mid April 2021 played out over 5 weeks before leveling out. By contrast, new ATHs in 2017 dropped 20, 30, or 40% in several days before pushing back to 'surface' and resuming the upward movement. The price dropped 20% in one day on Nov 30, 2017. The insane pace of new highs in 2017 is why people "remember" going straight from $5,500 in mid November to $20,000 a month later; in reality, besides the one-day Nov 30 dump, there was also a 28% drop in early December before the final run to $20K.
[4] We had 10 ATH resets between March and December 2017. Measuring from the same halving-plus-8-months point in this halving cycle (Jan 2021), we've had "only" 6 ATH resets in 2021. But this data supports an increasingly popular theory from the Daily thread, regarding a longer cycle. The 'boom' part of this halving cycle started in Dec 2020 (halving-plus-7) when the Dec 2017 ATH was taken out; we saw the most recent new ATH last week at month 18 of the 2020-21 cycle. By contrast, the 2016-17 cycle lasted 17 months from halving to peak; and the 2012-13 cycle lasted 13 months.
[5] I incorrectly (and rather rudely in tone) challenged u/jarederaj for claiming there was a 25% dip in December 2017 the week before that cycle's true ATH. He was correct. I was incorrect. I was wrong. I apologize for my poor facts and feline-distemper-level words; and I thank him for his patience and tolerance.
Source: CoinMarketCap.com [link] [comments] |
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