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    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, March 03, 2021

    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, March 03, 2021


    Daily Discussion, March 03, 2021

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 05:27 AM PST

    Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

    If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

    Join us in the r/Bitcoin Chatroom!

    Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

    submitted by /u/rBitcoinMod
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    Due Diligence on Bitcoin

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 01:26 PM PST

    Due Diligence on Bitcoin

    Hi everyone,

    I've been trying to evaluate on my own whether bitcoin is worth buying and holding long term and wanted to present to you some basic findings. This is not financial advice but my own research analysis and I am open to being corrected as I am still new. I see a lot of DD for stocks but not as much here so I am hoping we can also get some more quality content here to share knowledge. I am someone who has bought and sold bitcoin at a loss back in 2017-2018, and then again 2020-2021. Yes, I saw all the "HODL" posts, but I was only in it for attempted financial gain. I've only recently spent the time to look into bitcoin and become a believer.

    Supply: First, Bitcoin has a fixed supply. Right now there are 900 bitcoins mined per day. Every four years the number of Bitcoins produced per block (created every 10 minutes) are cut in half. Currently the mining reward is 6.25 Bitcoin per block. In 2024 it will drop to 3.125 BTC per block. So we are beginning to see something we learned in our high school Economics class called Scarcity.

    https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.html?pos=T

    Demand: Next is demand. It doesn't matter if there's less of a resource no one wants. There is a lot to look at here (i.e. Bitcoin ATM installations increased by +85% in 2020 to 11,798 terminals, outpacing the previous year's near +50% rise by a significant margin, according to data source Coin ATM Radar). But the big one we are all most excited about is the change in institutional money flowing in. For those that don't know Metcalfe's Law, it holds that as the number of its users grows linearly, a network's value (or, by inference, the bitcoin price) grows geometrically. In other words, there is a cascading effect where more and more institutions begin exponentially buying in worldwide. Right now 30% of all U.S. buyers are institutions. This is a big deal because institutions have more money than you, and that means if they keep buying, our clock window to buy at our current price is now ticking.

    https://ir.citi.com/peFJTnzeEoMSIAEFlwH12VeM5d%2BCckWNrsO9lxpmyWezrz5V%2Bx%2FfRvm0gv6cWRpDHGWtIk7sTME%3D

    Indicators: The first decade was marked by speculation and pushback. And Bitcoin prices reflected that. I know for a lot of us, me included, we want indicators to show that prices will go up. But something I'd like to propose for your consideration also: The maturation of an ecosystem tends to result in fresh consolidation. Because we are still in a stage of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), this is good news for you - it means we are only now beginning to exit the early adaptor stage. It's not too late to buy. As more and more people have bitcoin, it will begin its slow inevitable march towards mainstream as a dependable store of value. This is why the next chart I want to show you is not just money, but people. More and more people are bitcoin owners. More and more people start talking and googling and investing. Metcalfe's Law, remember?

    https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1-btc/

    Inflation/Depreciation: When I was a kid I remember reading a book called "Rich Dad Poor Dad" where the premise was to put your money in assets that make more money, not less. Putting your money in things that depreciate (i.e. a car) loses you money over time, while things that appreciate (i.e. a house) make more money. A popular Bitcoin valuation chart is called the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) pricing model. Notice how as Bitcoin becomes more scarce due to halving's, it exponentially grows. Next, notice how your hard earned U.S. Dollar has depreciated by 99% the past hundred years to gold, which has been traditionally the "gold standard" of storage. Guys, this is seriously starting to look like a no brainer to me.

    https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4366155-u-s-dollar-devalues-99-vs-gold-in-100-years-gold-price-crosses-2067

    Regulation: This something not completely known to any of us. Despite the price volatility, what if the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Securities or Exchange Commission (SEC) tried to in some way limit or outright ban Bitcoin? I take comfort that institutions are adopting and even big retail investors are adding Bitcoin as part of their overall asset portfolio. Regulation is not always bad and can provide us a layer security from a "Mt. Gox" happening to us again. There is a stable coin called Tether that is being investigated and other legitimate FUD concerns. But with Coinbase's soon IPO, and large positions on the news from the likes of Tesla, there is more safety and certainty. Do understand that your faith is currently paid to you at a premium. Once all FUD and volatility from Bitcoin is removed, it's skyrocketing price will reflect that.

    In December 2020, the SEC announced they would allow "crypto-focused broker-dealers to operate for five years without fear of an enforcement action provided that they can verify if they have possession and control of customers' digital asset securities https://www.sec.gov/rules/policy/2020/34-90788.pdf

    Competition: Cryptocurrency is not just limited to Bitcoin, there are many "altcoins." But analysts have been pointing to Bitcoin as the "north star" of all other cryptocurrencies and welcome mainstream adaption of cryptocurrencies as a portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin helps illuminate the financial industry's path. There are new technologies and advancements being made too for the "inefficiencies" of Bitcoin. Efforts to improve Bitcoin's processing speed are underway such as a new scaling technology called the Lightning Network.

    https://ir.citi.com/peFJTnzeEoMSIAEFlwH12VeM5d%2BCckWNrsO9lxpmyWezrz5V%2Bx%2FfRvm0gv6cWRpDHGWtIk7sTME%3D

    Conclusion: Bitcoin has gone mainstream and is considered a legitimate asset class of digital gold by more and more investors. Bitcoin has a proven supply dynamic (S2F) and demand dynamic (Metcalfe's Law). With banks printing money to infinity, the question for you is:

    With all this information, is bitcoin worth a portion of your portfolio?

    If your answer is "yes" then Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) of buying and holding bitcoin appears to be a viable investment. I do not think this is an asset class to sell anymore. Notice nowhere in this writeup did I talk about getting rich quick off bitcoin's prices. I'm a firm believer that "time in the market beats timing the market," and so I will be buying and holding because I believe in the future of bitcoin.

    TLDR - Be a long term HODL and start stacking satoshis for your future's sake.

    submitted by /u/jsamwg
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    Selling Bitcoin and trying to buy back in cheaper is like getting off a train and trying to outrun it to the next station.

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 10:47 AM PST

    My brother just said that to me, thought it was a beautiful quote.

    Don't get off the train people.

    submitted by /u/Kayvesting1
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    $100k loan YOLO - 4th March update

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:49 AM PST

    With Tesla buying BTC I'm more bullish than ever. This is the beginning of a wave of institutional money. It's a matter of time before Netflix, Oracle etc announce their purchases. It's made me realise I don't have enough Bitcoin. So I've sold all my stocks (including Tesla which had a 2000% gain) and I'm all in.

    I have also invested the final $10k of the loan into BTC. I had originally kept that as an emergency buffer but I've now made enough money through my job to cover it.

    Loan update:

    Original $90k bought 3.547 BTC ($25,373 average purchase price)

    Last $10k bought me 0.207 BTC ($48,189 purchase price)

    Total $100k loan = 3.754 BTC

    Current BTC loan value = $184,434 (Current BTC price = $49,130)

    I'm up $84,434 (excluding fees and interest)

    I have not decided if I will sell some this bull cycle or wait until the next in 4 years. As I said in previous posts I can pay back the loan through income from my job comfortably. I might sell 20% if we go over $300k, undecided.

    I don't endorse anyone else following this route. My personal circumstances (no other debt, no kids, no wife etc) are different to yours. Even if they were the same, you still shouldn't do it.

    submitted by /u/BitcoinandTesla
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    IRS clarifies that buying and holding crypto doesn't require 1040 reporting

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 08:37 PM PST

    I’m addicted to crypto so I built my own ticker!

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:19 AM PST

    To the guy I used to work with

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 07:38 PM PST

    I'm sure my experience isn't super novel, but back when I was in college Bitcoin almost hit 20k. I put in $100 at the beginning of that spike and sold when it starting dipping for $122 ($22 profit!). I did zero research and I was in it because I thought I could make a quick buck. I decided I shouldn't be investing in something I don't know about, especially while I was paying for an education.

    Less than a year later, I started my first job after graduation which had an open office format. I distinctly remember a coworker saying Bitcoin was a good investment and we would regret not buying in. The response was pretty brutal as everyone was laughing at him and saying it would die out. It finally sparked me to do my own research and I hopped on board this wild ride. That week I put in $1000 which isn't a lot for some of you, but as a recent college graduate it was a big deal. Ever since then I have been trying to reach the milestone of accumulating 1 BTC and I'm almost halfway there!

    Anyway, I just want to thank that guy I used to work with and hope you're still HODLing. I sometimes feel like the crazy guy you were painted as, but I think people just haven't opened their eyes yet!

    submitted by /u/EatBranflakes
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    [Documentary] When Bitcoin Hit $100: CNBC's 2013 Coverage

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 12:42 PM PST

    Actual footage of whales trying to buy my bitcoin

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:48 AM PST

    Bitcoin Selling Pressure

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:42 AM PST

    Most of the selling pressure since mid-Jan has come from F2Pool (largest Chinese mining pool) affiliated wallets and it is now becoming clear why. The Inner Mongolia region of China is banning bitcoin mining. This region is responsible for 9% of the world's BTC mining. It's a coal powered region however, which is the problem. Beijing has come down on them for not meeting carbon neutrality targets. They have until end of April to shut down, but it would appear they first got notice of this back in mid-January based on the BTC selling history. Most will likely either move to the surplus hydro power regions of China or they will sell their rigs and shut down. Apparently some will even be moving overseas. Many of these miners secured loans using their mining rigs as collateral, either to pay their bills so they didn't have to sell coin while the price was rising, or to buy more rigs or bitcoin...but either way many are forced to sell some or all of their bitcoin to pay back loans or pay for their move.

    The big question is, when will this selling stop? End of April seems like the logical answer but I suspect it will taper off well before then. Anyone moving, would have started the process by now I suspect.

    One thing I've noticed of late is that the only time BTC price goes down is when there is selling pressure from F2Pool and whenever they are not selling the price surges higher. So the big takeaway is that when they stop selling, we should see a moon shot.

    https://decrypt.co/59811/inner-mongolia-to-ban-bitcoin-mining-what-it-means-for-the-industry

    submitted by /u/Nuck16
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    Now they laugh, then they will come after our bitcoins

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 03:58 PM PST

    In the future we'll hear lots of bullshit about bitcoiners from politicians and all kinds of parasites. They will say we were lucky. They will say we were selling drugs and stolen organs to get bitcoins. They will say we don't deserve to be rich.

    They won't talk about us spending countless hours studying something new, while they were wasting their time. They won't talk about the sacrifices we made to buy bitcoins, while they were wasting their money. They won't talk about how we saw our portfolios drop in value by 80% while they were "safely" keeping their money in the bank. They won't talk about how everyone laughed at us when we said we were buying bitcoins or when we asked sellers if they accepted them as a payment method.

    We will be their target. Get ready to hear lots of bullshit about inequality and about making bitcoin illegal or stealing bitcoins from ants to "redistribute" them among grasshoppers.

    submitted by /u/Enormouslypoor
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    Demographics of Bitcoin holdlers

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 06:04 PM PST

    For my dissertation, I'm conducting a survey to better understand the demographic makeup of Bitcoin hodlers to see where they (well, we!) over and under index versus the general population.

    Because there's such a small amount of us in the world, I've resorted to, obviously, a highly targeted/concentrated audience to increase the sample size of Bitcoin hodlers.

    I'd really appreciate it if you can take a minute out of your busy day of staring at the price of Bitcoin to taking this survey about Bitcoin.

    Thanks in advance! I'll be sure to share my research when it's complete.

    Feel free to upvote this post, so it gains more traction so I can get a decent amount of responses :)

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/JVDVCZR

    submitted by /u/dabressler
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    The IRS wants you to HODL Bitcoin Forever as the Ultimate Store of Value

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 05:48 PM PST

    Selling Bitcoin means paying a government penalty that equates to ridiculous % of capital gains "taxes". They are telling you that you should never sell.

    HODL FOREVER

    submitted by /u/anon517
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    Shoutout the the people who panic sold @44k!����

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:26 AM PST

    Paper hands burn🔥

    submitted by /u/Accomplished_Dig_247
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    Paid in full (1 full BTC and some sats) instead of DCA and I think it was the right choice

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 09:30 PM PST

    Either way fuck it. Was all going in at some point

    submitted by /u/chipsandgiac
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    Proving Bitcoin Haters Wrong

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 06:11 PM PST

    I live in St. Petersburg, FL, and I was having a conversation about Tesla stock and Bitcoin with a guy I just met in a local coffee shop. I mentioned that I was looking for a restaurant that accepted Bitcoin in the city because I wanted to buy something small with it.

    The dipshit then tells me to start thinking about how Bitcoin is a currency that you can't spend, then he went on saying that Bitcoin was about to crash to 0. Then he demanded that I sell it right away. While walking out, he says sarcastically to enjoy my earnings.

    This dickhead said all this when Bitcoin was at $32k. It's $50k right now. I'd like to see this fucker when Bitcoin is at $100k.

    submitted by /u/tombnguyen
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    Kraken CEO: Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million Is 'Very Reasonable'

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:44 AM PST

    Found this bitcoin machine at the Shell station near my house. The clerk said he didn't know what it was for or why they just got it. But we all know why ����

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:58 AM PST

    Today my 97 year old grandma pulled out a limited edition $2 coin from her purse and was puzzled. She said “what is this? It looks different, it’s not a $2 coin, is it a Bitcoin? That’s what you own”.

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 02:53 AM PST

    Haha made me laugh

    submitted by /u/Ok_Metal_3947
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    Bitcoin is the ultimate populist movement

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 03:25 AM PST

    Sorry for the length of the following, but just some commentary from someone who follows history and the market:

    Populism has been increasingly on the rise in the past decade. Starting with Trudeau in Canada, extending to the 5 Star Movement in Italy, Brexit in the UK, Yellow Vests in France, Trump in the US, the success of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, the protests in Russia, etc.

    First, defining populism. Populism is basically the idea that the elites have a certain level of treatment that's reserved for them, that government rules and laws are made and skewed towards their favor, and that the everyday person deserves to be treated just as fairly and equally.

    Its been fairly evident throughout history that lawmakers are biased. Why? Because lawmakers are inherently wealthy (Ted Cruz with net worth of $4mm, Romney with net worth of $250mm, even Elizabeth Warren with her net worth of $12mm). Therefore, in aggregate, the laws that are issued will naturally favor those making the laws.

    As a result of biased lawmakers, industries themselves who are governed by these laws will ultimately favor those at the top. Think private health insurance, financial services, etc. The rule of society is, those who can afford the bigger legal team wins. The GameStop debacle was the latest in a long history of inequalities which shows that the rules that are mandated to the common person don't apply to the rich.

    Enter Bitcoin, a platform where everyone is regarded equally. Where common day people can invest and grow their wealth at a disproportionate rate relative to stocks, bonds, and traditional assets that the wealthy have loaded up their yachts with. Where the average worker can break away from the traditional hierarchical pyramid, and actually start their own financial ecosystem. Effectively taking power away from those at the top, and spreading it amongst those who hold it.

    Central banks aren't stupid. They understand how technologically efficient crypto currencies are. That's why 86% of central banks around the world are experimenting with CBDCs (according to Deutsche Bank IB Research), and why China is live testing theirs as we speak. However, central banks also don't want to lose power. That's why they're extremely cautious of Bitcoin and the traction that it's garnering, and cautioning against the adoption thereof (think China bans, Yellen FUD, etc.).

    The question therefore becomes, who wins? Will the political and financial elite, who have dictated our current socio-economic constructs rise out on top like they always do and Bitcoin just fades away as a fad? Or will the average person grasp the opportunity that Bitcoin provides to show the 1% that the power of the 99% is a force to be reckoned with, and really change the financial system (and their own net wealth) for the better.

    Only time will tell. But with the continued rise of populism around the world and the idea that the average person should be treated the same as the financial and political elite, Bitcoin is the ultimate vehicle to propel that forward, and it's no wonder so many at the top are worried.

    submitted by /u/avernamethyst112
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    Blew out my account.

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 08:02 PM PST

    Today after 3 years of trading, I managed to blow out my account. I've done very well for myself in terms of picking up bitcoin. I guess the moment my family needed financial assistance, my trading strategy changed. I think it was due to the stress of having to be successful for them. Figure I'll post this, for those who was in the same boat as Im in. I believe something good will come of it. I honestly don't regret what I did. It came from a good place and I'm sure to be back on me feet again. Let's just hope Bitcoin doesn't breach 100k by then. Just a post for those who needed to hear this.

    submitted by /u/odrahn
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    How it started How it is going

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 11:24 AM PST

    SEC Chair Nominee taught “Blockchain & Money” course at MIT.

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 05:57 PM PST

    A possible sign of good things to come! You can watch the series of lectures on the MIT OCW YouTube channel.

    Really exciting to know we could have someone in such a significant role who is really keen to these technologies 👏👏👏💸🌙🌙🌙

    submitted by /u/donmulatito
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    I don’t want to hear any complaining in the future...

    Posted: 03 Mar 2021 07:17 AM PST

    Right now businesses and institutions are buying up bitcoin. Retail and individuals are selling to them in droves knowing this. Down the road when "the top 1%" and "wealthy" people own all the bitcoin, this is why. People are giving their bitcoin away and I don't want to hear any complaining later on when "the people" can't afford bitcoin or don't own any considerable amount.

    submitted by /u/tke1600
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    What’s your bitcoin pitch sound like?

    Posted: 04 Mar 2021 12:19 AM PST

    I've recently had a lot of family, friends, and coworkers ask me to explain to them what exactly bitcoin is since it's becoming more and more "mainstream". I always give them the store of value pitch, but struggle to really get into the specifics because it typically goes right over their heads.

    What's the easiest way you've found to explain bitcoin to a newbie, and what resources are your favorite to point them towards?

    submitted by /u/AWC-6969
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