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    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, January 31, 2021

    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, January 31, 2021


    Daily Discussion, January 31, 2021

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 11:01 PM PST

    Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

    If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

    Join us in the r/Bitcoin Chatroom!

    Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

    submitted by /u/rBitcoinMod
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    When randoms from wallstreetbets find their way here

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 12:06 AM PST

    In less than 6hrs, BTC will have sustained $30k for 30 consecutive days.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 03:15 PM PST

    What a glorious month!

    P S - Fuck Wall St.

    submitted by /u/notyouagain2
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    Warning: Get your Bitcoin out of Robinhood while you still can!

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 05:24 AM PST

    Remember when we said, "What if Robinhood started trading paper Bitcoin without holding actual Bitcoin?". This is what happens when a dishonest company needs more capital fast and the chances of your RH BTC positions being non-collateralized have literally never been higher. Further, the chances of RH failing as a company have never been higher.

    Look into the faces of the young CEOs who made their fortunes by deceiving retail investors and selling them out via order flow. Do you really want to let these guys hold your BTC?

    For the next 24 hours I will personally answer any questions that any of you may have about liquidating your RH positions and getting into a real exchange or decentralized marketplace (like BISQ)

    Do the right thing because it's also the smart thing and because you low key always knew you should have been

    submitted by /u/JorgeJorgunsun
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    The battle for Middle Class.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 08:47 PM PST

    New subscribers to our Bitcoin subreddit - WELCOME ALL!

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 06:27 PM PST

    Conventional currency

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 02:08 AM PST

    Elon Musk’s Bitcoin timeline!

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 05:41 PM PST

    Visa May Add Cryptocurrencies to Its Payments Network, Says CEO

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 12:17 AM PST

    Saw this on Twitter, i want me one of these! ��

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 04:15 AM PST

    My theory: F2Pool stabilizes BTC price till they run out of BTC. The real bullrun starts after that.

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 02:48 AM PST

    I have been looking at the F2Pool (chinese miner) outflow in the last days:

    F2Pool outflow

    They sell a lot of BTC (more than 10000 each day) when BTC wants to go higher. They sell less, but still a lot on slower days. Basically they stabilize the price between $30000-$36000. They cannot do this for too long though, they spend 10x the daily miner rewards of the whole network each day, they will run out of BTC soon. After they run out of BTC we can have a huge bullrun. (Although I don't know how much they hold, the above chart does not contain that. Can someone help me out?)

    I am suprised that there is not more discussion about this. This is a huge force, much bigger than the Grayscale buys, which is going big in the media.

    submitted by /u/nadam60
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    You guys give me the strength to HODL

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 11:42 PM PST

    I may be bearing some Fiat loss on Bitcoin, and a past me would have panicked and exited, but a now me won't. Witnessing you guys HODL through all the thicks and thins of BTC, gives me the strength to HODL with mine.

    You have taught me how to have control over my own self, how to not take decisions impulsively, how to have patience, and how to have Diamond hands! I believe this trait will be helpful, not only with Bitcoin, but with life in all its glory. And I am grateful for this!

    submitted by /u/tothem0o0n
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    THERE IS NO BITCOIN SHORT SQUEEZE - please stop asking

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 08:31 AM PST

    Bitcoin isn't GameStop; it will never be GameStop. We aren't here for short term profits, we are here to revolutionize the world. Please stop posting wallstreetbets style posts about Bitcoin. If you are looking to get rich quick, this isn't the best subreddit for you.

    submitted by /u/MteveSiller
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    r/bitcoin has flipped r/apple. Market cap next?

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 02:14 AM PST

    2.189M members for bitcoin 2.179M for apple.

    submitted by /u/Fomodrome
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    Ask yourself: What do these people know that you don't

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 01:32 PM PST

    Bitcoin will flip Apple by market cap at $120,442

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 03:18 PM PST

    Ukraine Government To Convert Nuclear Power Plant Into Mining Data Centre - Bitcoin Maximalist

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 10:24 PM PST

    Missing hearing this BITCOIN pump anthem? Don't worry, it is coming again in Febuary.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 08:16 AM PST

    BITCOIN please go to MOON !

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 10:11 PM PST

    Michael Saylor - "People's retracement stats for Bitcoin are completely irrelevant."

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 03:30 PM PST

    The recent fiat frenzy seems trivial for a seasoned HODLer.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 05:49 PM PST

    So in the past two weeks we've seen the most insane events unfolding before our eyes. Millions upon millions of first time traders have put their money on the line, in pursuit of something bigger than themselves - or a quick buck - but I feel that for us bitcoiners, this is like being at the zoo, looking at a bunch of gorillas freaking the fuck out with every 10% dip or increase, safe behind thick glass. so many of us have seen red for years at a time, so many of us have had consecutive months of insomnia, but we have stood firm. Bitcoin is the Deepest of Fucking Value, and we are the most diamondest of hands. I fucking love bitcoin.

    submitted by /u/Chfh1000
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    The Bitcoin moon song feat. Musk, Saylor and Back

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 04:23 AM PST

    ECDSA is 50% of the magic of Bitcoin

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 01:23 AM PST

    ECDSA is 50% of the magic of bitcoin

    People understand the private key, but don't understand the signature.

    EDCSA is the tech that allows both of these ideas to work in conjunction.

    But what is a signature?

    The sig is a very important element to understand.

    I condense the process into a concept. First I'll explain the process

    The signing process contains 4 steps,

    1: request the network to do something for you(send amount + address)

    2: Receive a green light from the network (ready to process with approval)

    3: Sign (the signature is constructed from your keys and the green light)

    4: Send sig to blockchain

    So, now for the conceptual understanding, the signature contains

    1: Keys

    2: Transaction data (indirectly. Sig encrypts with greenlight from the network as well as private key)

    as a single document.

    So that document (or signature) can be constructed totally offline, and once made, does not expose any sensitive information.

    It's an algorithmic process. The signature does not require the net. So you can and should "sign" on an airgapped machine, produce a hash code representing the sig, transfer to a hot machine by photographing a hash of the sig, and initiate from a hot machine.

    The company ngrave is building what I think to be the strongest consumer wallet made so far because they made a wallet that holds the keys forever airgapped.

    This level of security (ecdsa with solid hardware) is very hard to directly attack, and requires phishing or physical manipulation so long as the keys are stored and created on an airgapped machine. The ability to instantly verify identity opens doors for new economic depth and complexity and efficiency.

    Instead of having to register for hundreds of sites and services individually all requiring approval processing time and meticulous inputs, you can have digital ID representations that grow like cryptos, and as they gain network effect, companies start accepting them. Then when they ask for your ID, you just "sign". This can be done with all sorts of data, medical data even. Registration for a job or a service is instant under this paradigm. What we then see is, what I like to call, a "bounty hunter" economy. The uber driver can run thousands of apps at once and run them in a super app. You could legally work for a company who never knows your name.

    Decentralized computation is the other 50% of the magic, and social media will eventually take place on decentralized structures. The global decentralized effect means non-censorship and pseudonymity, robust and redundant networks. It means alternative outlets to youtube and the other AI influence platforms.

    So I see a future where everyone has a "signing device" and within it the keys to banks IDs insurance home titles intellectual property and more.

    submitted by /u/l_Thank_You_l
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    What does #Bitcoin mean to me? (A 70 year old boomer)

    Posted: 31 Jan 2021 02:57 AM PST

    What does #Bitcoin mean to me? This is directed at those older people struggling to understand the upcoming paradigm change.

    On the face of it Bitcoin appears to be an easy way to make (fake fiat) money, and, it's true if you had bought Bitcoin back in 2010, say $1000 worth, you would now be a multimillionaire. I myself spent £100 on Bitcoin in 2012, in 2017 I frittered most of it away on what we now call altcoins, which is probably the reason I now 'hate' altcoins. As Max Kaiser succinctly puts it "They (alts) are designed to steal your Bitcoin"! And I completely agree with him. Bitcoin is an ideal, it's freedom in it's purest form because it makes 'you' sovereign, you become the bank, you become the government of you! Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme, it's a don't stay poor scheme for everyone on planet Earth. To truly understand the paradigm-changing aspects of this new currency system you must do your own research, you must become 'Alice' and dive headfirst into the rabbit hole. Below are two statements I wrote, both explain how I feel about Bitcoin and its ideals. I have just turned 70 and so will probably not see the fruits of my labours within this space. But I firmly believe we can change the world for the better! So good luck on your journey.

    Bitcoin is becoming far more than the sum of its parts. In the future, it will be a symbol of freedom! It will be the instrument that removed the greedy self-serving Elite from their ivory towers and, it will allow the poorest people equality that would never be available under the present fiat system.

    In order to remove the scourge, colloquially known as "The Elite and Deep State", we need to first remove their power, "Fiat Money"! To do that we need to change the paradigm by converting the world economies from a centralised fiat system to a de-centralised system. The tool that will enable us (that's we the people) to do this is already in hand. it's called Bitcoin! So the question begs? will you lot sit on your arses and watch everything you hold dear turn to shit! Or, will you do some reading and find out exactly how this would be possible?

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/1722771574553216

    submitted by /u/Nufsed007
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    2021 will be the year of bitcoin and here is why.

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 06:56 PM PST

    January 2020, bitcoin market cap: $150,000,000,000

    December 2020, bitcoin market cap: $545,000,000,000

    Market cap/monetary network/monetary energy increased nearly 400 BILLION in one year...there are only 900 bitcoin mined PER DAY.

    If every bitcoin mined for all of 2021 (900x365=320,850) is sold at $35,000. The 'market cap' of bitcoin increases ~2% by 11.5 billion...However...if the market cap were to increase by same amount as 2020 (400 billion) while every bitcoin person HODL, the price paid per bitcoin would need to be 1.1 million! (an increase of 400,000,000,000 of market cap could only be divisible by mined coins 320,850-if miners didn't decide to HODL themselves). If everyone HODL, with the same Ape like tenacity as like what is going on currently with GME. There would be supply side squeeze and mania would ensue to get in to bitcoin. By the time this would happen, bitcoin would literally become a black hole where value cannot escape as nothing else would come close as a store of future value, thus hyperbitcoinization.

    I'm not selling my BTC.

    I don't think this is actually realistic this year...but who knows? Curious if it is even possible? Please, someone shoot holes in this theory. With so much bullish news this past week including papa Musk posting on twitter about bitcoin. We could be witnessing the transformation of global (or should I say interplanetary) reserve currency before our eyes!????

    submitted by /u/Gusdogmd1
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    BTC 2021 Bull Market Outlook - A technical Perspective

    Posted: 30 Jan 2021 05:18 PM PST

    BTC 2021 Bull Market Outlook - A technical Perspective

    Hi all. I am new to Reddit but not new to Bitcoin and analyzing the BTC market. Outlining my thoughts on navigating this bull market for some of the new users to understand what we can POTENTIALLY expect over the next year.

    I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, JUST A GUY SITTING ON HIS COMPUTER IN THE BASEMENT. THIS IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. I ALSO LOST ALL MY BITCOIN PRIVATE KEYS IN A TRAGIC BOATING ACCIDENT. CEST LA VIE.

    When looking at the current bitcoin bull cycle we are in I find it's helpful to understand what previous bull cycles look like to determine what we might be in for over the coming months. The last couple days have seen a pump due to some prominent individuals who are advertising bitcoin. We have retraced all those gains and i think this is A VERY GOOD THING.

    You see this ELON candle saw a lot of weak hands get long, likely over-leveraged and most probably lost money as they were liquidated on the way down. A LOT of money is lost, counterintuitively, in bull markets due to irresponsibly leveraged bets. The organic sustainable rises in bitcoin come from folks who are buying, and holding for the long term. Storing the scarce supply of btc and leaving the demand to gobble up what's left at higher prices. But I digress...lets zoom out.

    Bitcoin likes to close gaps, and these gaps help us figure out likely support zones and create targets for tops in the market. In 2017 when btc pulled back to $1,814 it missed the full retrace into the 2013 all time high (ATH) of $1,177 by ~35%. If you consider instead the secondary top in 2017 of $1319, it missed the retrace by ~28%.

    https://preview.redd.it/890iq7aicke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=77b997229c8485dde02697bd26dc844bb58abc38

    As of now we have pulled back to a 2021 low of $28,755, coming up short of the full retrace to the 2017 ATH of $19,764 by ~32%. this would leave a similar size gap during both bull markets...

    https://preview.redd.it/obupkuf2dke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=17ff5f8fe70f4d0eaea0d8dcbfdde3413439f0c8

    Unless we pull back to 20k at some point, I will always be worried that we will see it again (or until enough time has passed) - as I am no longer concerned we will see $1319 ever again. However, since this gap is of similar size to the one we left behind in 2017 I am confident we have seen the local low, for now. (How confident? 75%)

    So, where to from here? Let's take a closer look at the 2017 bull market as a clue. In 2017 we made a high of $3,000 before we dropped to $1,814, leaving the gap I mentioned above. After making this low, we saw another top at $5,000...a rise of 66% from the previous $3000 high:

    https://preview.redd.it/oa33oqfmeke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=18b33d06b817a74cbbf00df010b160daf5c2a1a2

    If we extrapolate a similar rise from 1st top to 2nd top for the current bull market, that will take us to a 2nd high in this cycle of ~$70k (42k*1.66)

    https://preview.redd.it/iapx3s47fke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=efc0bdad92928915b1478181d747053070e3067e

    I expect this rise to 70k to take us about 10-11 weeks - similar in time to the 3k, drop to $1,814, and move to 5k took in 2017.

    Next, we are due for our 2nd bull market correction in the cycle. 2017 was BEAUTIFUL as btc closed the gap back to 3k nearly to the dollar

    https://preview.redd.it/eu3dsquxfke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=69764cae02d86ca69336c8c215c4ecdfbd6047b0

    A pullback like this one is a phenomenal buy the dip opportunity when it occurs and will serve as support in the future, as we'll see later.

    So in this cycle - what do I expect? Best case scenario after we pull into that 70K target, we get a correction that is supported by our current ATH of 42k:

    https://preview.redd.it/hu7snkgggke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d21a0dcf874d2ca36327b2d2ebb2faa3ec1dd2a

    I expect this correction to be swift, 3-4 weeks, and really shake out some of the weaker hands.

    Once 42K, our current ATH has held as support, we are really ready for blastoff. In 2017 the move from 5k to the 2017 ATH of ~20k took 12 weeks and saw a 300% rise:

    https://preview.redd.it/04awj1e4hke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b4bd64450f23cfd937ac388220cdf990984fe3f

    So where does that leave my prediction for the blow off top in 2021? Well, I do not quite see the same level of rise that we did from 5k-20k. You see Bitcoin likes big corrections in bear cycles, and usually in the 80% range...ultimately, the 2017 bull found a low at that first ATH in 2017 around 3k (remember that ultimate support range from above?):

    https://preview.redd.it/xs6nb2umhke61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ea95bbedf7e8a1468df47dabfb56a3cfbab445a

    If my theory from above holds true for the 2021 bull cycle, and our current ATH holds as support after we hit 70K, then I also see it being the ultimate bottom once we enter our bear market territory post-this bull cycle. So, if BTC is gonna correct 80% or so from where it makes it's ATH this year, with 42k holding as support, then we can calculate the ATH at this cycle projecting at ~210k (42k / .2) . Here is what that outlook looks like on my charts:

    https://preview.redd.it/jabk9m6eike61.png?width=2267&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa5b2009b4c96ed039ef69f0bdc1812244839212

    I have the ultimate top for this cycle in late July and then a year long bear cycle that ends with the retest of the current 42k ATH. I would not be surprised if this timing does not turn out to be correct. As this amount of time for this cycle does seem rather compressed to me. As any technical analyst will do, I will change my mind which each new candle that we make as the days and weeks end. This could cause my outlook to change. For instance, if we break our current local low of $28,755 then pretty much all of this analysis will be invalidated and will need to be redone.

    To that end I will update my outlook weekly as we see where this market goes

    TO THE MOON!

    TL;DR - local low is in, 70k is next, pullback to 42k then moon to 210k. Don't over-leverage or you will lose it all.

    submitted by /u/btc_tothe_moon
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