[Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 20, 2018 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 20, 2018
- [Altcoin Discussion] Thursday, December 20, 2018
- Update on Long-Term Pattern
- [CONTEST] Where do you think bitcoin will be in a year?
- Self-education is the only way to cryptocurrency trading
- Do you use sentiment & market breadth for trading? What other data do you use?
- Trade level look at the BTC rise on Bitfinex
- Uber Founder/Ex-C.E.O of E-Trade Steve Ehrlich is opening a cryptocurrency exchange and wants to give you $25 in Bitcoin just for joining. (US Only)
- Bitcoin: A Bearish Close
| [Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 20, 2018 Posted: 19 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Thursday, December 20, 2018 Posted: 19 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
Thread guidelines:
If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too. Other ways to interact:
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| Posted: 19 Dec 2018 11:00 AM PST Link to original post I made almost 2 years ago. Link to first update from 15 months ago Link to second update from 9 months ago Since mid-2014, I've maintained a personal chart for Bitcoin's historical price. Even at that time, it was interesting to me to see similar trends in stability followed by quick jumps in price. Perhaps this is Elliott Wave behavior? Anyway, I thought I'd share the updated chart The blue line is the price history (Gox before they fell, Stamp after that). For the red line, it's a rough trace of the first 1x box. The second and third portions are the same pattern stretched wider by a 2.3x factor - as Elliott waves would suggest fractals. Yes, I picked today to post the update because it fits the chart. Just note that I didn't change the projection. For those interested, link to my thoughts on why this behavior exists As the sidebar says, this isn't trading advice. However, most TA is understanding that large populations of people can be "simulated" with mathematical models and then finding the one that best fits the data. [link] [comments]  |
| [CONTEST] Where do you think bitcoin will be in a year? Posted: 19 Dec 2018 05:51 PM PST In honor of the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 prediction threads, I am opening another one up. What do you think bitcoin's price will be come Dec 20th 2019 at 22:00 UTC? The winner of last years' contest thread, /u/FPCON-DELTA (link), will take worth of bitcoin, 0.001B. The three way tie for second place goes to /u/Kryai (link), /u/Jarocco (link), and /u/arldyalrdy (link). They each win 0.0008BTC. Congrats, everyone. Please share your chosen BTC address, and I'll send your price to you. I'l be honest, some stuff came up and I've had to postpone my planned purchase of bitcoin... I'll do my best to send the price within a week. Thanks for being so patient :) The gist of the contest is: I pledge to give 0.0032 BTC to the closest prediction, or whatever bitcoin is equivalent to $12 is at the moment (If you do not chose which in your prediction comment, the choice will be made for you come Dec 20th 2019 [protip, if you predict below $3800, chose the USD equivalent. If you predict above $3800, chose the BTC amount]). Any participant has to chose in the same comment they make their prediction on. Edited comments are disqualified. bitcoinaverage.com will be used to determine the winner of the contest. You can have however many predictions in your comment, but the last price on the comment will be the one that applies to the contest. In case of multiple comments, whichever comment was made first will be the applicant to the contest. Cut off date is December 20th 2018. Best of luck, everyone. Happy trading! [link] [comments]  |
| Self-education is the only way to cryptocurrency trading Posted: 20 Dec 2018 06:53 AM PST A fast glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to 'make a million' or 'beat the market' with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. Many books have been written on how investors could enhance their wealth by adopting strategies suggested by authors from varied backgrounds. These authors of best-sellers are often key figures in large financial and, to a lesser extent, academic institutions. According to these authors, specific strategies have consistently beaten the market, as evidenced by their personal experience or their own research. In spite of the obvious popular appeal of such books, the vast majority of academics, and probably many practitioners, are extremely sceptical about whether such publications have genuine merit. Purchasing books can save you time finding one that works, but trading can be made by yourself too. Many traders spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars looking for a great trading strategy, but building your own can be fun, easy and very quick. So if you want to trade but don't know where to start or want to make your own strategy read down this article. Once you get your head on straight, you can embark on learning trading, starting with these five basic steps. 1. Trading AccountObvious thing, but very important as it will determine your success in trading sphere. Open a trading account on the safe broker. I would recommend one of the following websites: 2. Read essential booksFinancial articles. Stock market books. Website tutorials. There's a wealth of information out there, much of it inexpensive to tap. And don't focus too narrowly on one single aspect of the trading game. Instead, study everything market-wise, including ideas and concepts you don't feel are particularly relevant at this time. Trading launches a journey that often winds up at a destination not anticipated at the starting line. Your broad and detailed market background will come in handy over and over again, even if you think you know exactly where you're going right now. Here are five must-read books for every new trader:
Start to follow the market every day in your spare time. Get up early and read about overnight price action on foreign markets. News sites such as Yahoo Finance, Google Finance and CBS MoneyWatch serve as a great resource for new investors. For more sophisticated coverage, you need look no further than The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and, well, us at Investopedia.com. 3. Develop analysis skillsStudy the basics of technical analysis and look at price charts, thousands of them, in all time frames. You may think fundamental analysis offers a better path to profits because it tracks growth curves and revenue streams, but traders live and die by price action that diverges sharply from underlying fundamentals. Do not stop reading company spreadsheets, because they offer a trading edge over those who ignore them. However, they won't help you survive your first year as a trader. Your experience with charts and technical analysis now brings you into the magical realm of price prediction. Theoretically, securities can only go higher or lower, encouraging a long-side trade or a short sale. In reality, prices can do many other things, including chopping sideways for weeks at a time or whipsawing violently in both directions, shaking out buyers and sellers. The time horizon becomes extremely important at this juncture. Financial markets grind out trends and trading ranges with fractal properties that generate independent price movements at short-term, intermediate-term and long-term intervals. This means a security or index can carve out a long-term uptrend, intermediate downtrend and a short-term trading range, all at the same time. Rather than complicate prediction, most trading opportunities will unfold through interactions between these time intervals. Buying the dip offers a classic example, with traders jumping into a strong uptrend when it sells off in a lower period. The best way to examine this three-dimensional playing field is to look at each security in three time frames, starting with 60-minute, daily and weekly charts. 4. Practice TradingIt's now time to get your feet wet without giving up your trading stake. Paper trading, aka virtual trading, offers a perfect solution, allowing the neophyte to follow real-time market actions, making buying and selling decisions that form the outline of a theoretical performance record. It usually involves the use of a stock market simulator that has the look and feel of an actual stock exchange's performance. Make lots of trades, using different holding periods and strategies, and then analyze the results for obvious flaws. Investopedia has a free stock market game, and many brokers let clients engage in paper trading with their real money entry systems, too. This has the added benefit of teaching the software so you don't hit the wrong buttons when you are playing with family funds. So, when do you make the switch and start trading with real money? There's no perfect answer because simulated trading carries a flaw that's likely to show up whenever you start to trade for real, even if your paper results look perfect. Traders need to co-exist peacefully with the twin emotions of greed and fear. Paper trading doesn't engage these emotions, which can only be experienced by actual profit and loss. In fact, this psychological aspect forces more first-year players out of the game than bad decision-making. Your baby steps forward as a new trader need to recognize this challenge and address remaining issues with money and self-worth. 5. Keep learningWhile experience is a fine teacher, don't forget about additional education as you proceed on your trading career. Whether online or in person, classes can be beneficial, and you can find them at levels ranging from novice (with advice on how to analyze the aforementioned analytic charts, for example) to pro. More specialized seminars – often conducted by a professional trader – can provide valuable insight into the overall market and specific investment strategies; most focus on a specific type of asset, a particular aspect of the market, or a trading technique. Some may be academic, and others more like workshops in which you actively take positions, test out entry and exit strategies, and other exercises (often with a simulator). Paying for research and analysis can be both educational and useful. Some investors may find watching or observing market professionals to be more beneficial than trying to apply newly learned lessons themselves. There are a slew of paid subscription sites available across the web: Two well-respected services include Investors.com and Morningstar. It's also useful to get yourself a mentor – a hands-on coach to guide you, critique your technique and offer advice. If you don't know one, you can buy one. Many online trading schools offer mentoring as part of their continuing ed programs. Start your trading journey with a deep education on the financial markets, and then read charts and watch price actions, building strategies based on your observations. Test these strategies with paper trading, while analyzing results and making continuous adjustments. Then complete the first leg of your journey with monetary risk that forces you to address trade management and market psychology issues. [link] [comments]  |
| Do you use sentiment & market breadth for trading? What other data do you use? Posted: 20 Dec 2018 09:23 AM PST We have shorts that are still relatively high, another leg up inc? But....what other mkt data services do you use & for what kind of data? Screenshot of hourly update as of 12:01 NY time. https://gyazo.com/4deccab836ff2a4b55df218cbd6f3b17 Reply [link] [comments]  |
| Trade level look at the BTC rise on Bitfinex Posted: 19 Dec 2018 04:26 PM PST So i've been looking into what caused the BTC rise that started on 2018-12-17. Looks like there was a very fast rise (short squeeze i suppose) in really short amount of time on BFX which caused all other exchanges to start gong up. It's pretty interesting. Looks like BFX pumped this whole damn thing. I'm using some proprietary trade level data to drill down past candlesticks. Here's a look at 12-12-17 right when BTC started rising. The pump starts a few minutes after 12:00:08 UTC on BFX. Here is a chart i put together that looks at the trades around that time. x-axis is seconds since 12:00:08, y is price, size of the bubbles is size of the trade. Blue is market buy. https://imgur.com/a/VypQU3T . The biggest bubbles are about $270k. Here is it drilled down even further to a 10 second window https://imgur.com/a/XqX8W5K . Thats a 7% pump on in about 5 fucking seconds. Unreal. In total there was 2500 BTC traded in that 10 second window. Other exchanges followed but delayed by about a second or two. Here is those same 2 charts but on coinbase The move there on coinbase is less than 1% in that 10 second window, with 220 BTC traded. This doesnt look right to me. I hate being bearish but this just doesn't look like any real buying power outside of pumps to kick off a short squeeze. Anyones thoughts on this are welcome. Shameless plug of my data site where you can check the data out for yourself! https://www.cryptodatamart.com/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 20 Dec 2018 10:19 AM PST Uber Founder/Ex-C.E.O of E-Trade Steve Ehrlich is opening a cryptocurrency exchange by the name of "Voyager". Once it opens in Q1 2019, they will give you $25 in Bitcoin just for registering now. Voyager will also pay you $25 for every person you refer. Sign up here: https://vrlps.co/TwAjqEX/cp (U.S Only) [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 19 Dec 2018 04:32 PM PST Bitcoin today reached a high of right around $3930, a weekly level going back to the original bull run. Since then, we've done nothing but dump all day, reaching lows of $3660 as of the writing of this Idea. Closed this nasty inverted hammer/gravestone doji on the daily and we closed below the POC of this current move from $6k. We're looking pretty bearish from here, odds are we're coming back down a ways, tough to say how far right now. I'd say at least around $3500 if we wanted to see a potential bullish continuation and a higher low print and a good pullback from this high on day. Whether the low is in or not remains to be seen, but right now, my gut says it's not and we'll make another low sometime in the near future. If we do break a new low, we're targeting that $2800-3000 zone as the potential new bottom (not forever, just for now). Short term, we may see a run up to around $3750-3800 as a 'fakeout' bull trap and then come down, but right now, everything points to more downward momentum on the horizon. Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/U7M52Gaf-Bitcoin-A-Bearish-Close/ [link] [comments]  |
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