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    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion Megathread - August 12, 2018

    August 12, 2018

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion Megathread - August 12, 2018

    Daily Discussion Megathread - August 12, 2018

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 12:03 AM PDT

    Welcome to the Daily Discussion Megathread. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

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    submitted by /u/CryptoCurrencyMod
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    Never give up

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 06:06 PM PDT

    I doubt this is helpful, but FWIW...

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 08:03 AM PDT

    ...as an investor who began my career right before the dot-com bubble burst and invested through the Great Recession, take some comfort in the fact that this experience is providing you younger investors with the perspective necessary to be successful over the long term. If you observe early in life that that there are relatively equal forces at all times trying to make money both on the long and the short side of any asset class, it will give you more opportunity to find long-term success. It's my opinion that without losing your ass once or twice, you can't possibly become a great long-term investor.

    Take heart in the potential that is being created in you. If you keep the memory of this and use it to grow, you'll have an advantage going forward, be better attuned to risk and speculative market behavior, and you'll give yourself more opportunity to generate higher long-term returns.

    I wanted to give it all up in late 2000...but for whatever reason I stuck with it, and it was worth it. If investing has called to you as a career or hobby, that is a great thing.

    Just my 2c. Good luck out there.

    P.s. I apologize if this sounds pretentious or anything like that. Definitely not my intention.

    Edit: I really hope the following is helpful, and sorry for the crap formatting.

    TL;DR - You all know FOMO/FUD really well, and that can be used in more established markets to make solid returns. Measuring risk is as important as measuring your potential returns, always compare. People with no investment experience jumping into an asset class/tons of top-down analysis on an asset class usually means its close to a top. Your experience has value, so don't look at your bank account as the only asset you have...you've all gained experience and that has tons of value, sometimes more than you've lost in money. More investor activity doesn't always equate to more buying, but more balance/rationality, which for an overheated/risky asset can lead to more selling.

    I was asked by u/Cryptomoolah about examples of investment learnings I have gathered over the years, so here goes…

    • You guys have experienced some crazy FOMO/FUD levels, so watch for that in more established industries. People still sometimes work themselves into a frenzy over really big markets…oil/gas, financials, pharma, retail…guess what? These are gigantic markets with insanely huge infrastructure underneath them, and they end up weathering BS market sentiment over time much better than people realize, but when FUD hits these guys, look the opposite way. This worked for me well during the recession…NFW all those giant companies were going out of business, and I got some great basis in some very established names. Works same for FOMO …people think we are going to run out of oil, and price of oil goes to $150 and oil stocks skyrocket? We aren't running out of oil anytime soon, so good idea to reduce your position. Watch for frenzied thinking…you've all just graduated with a college degree in FOMO/FUD.
    • Every investment comes with an implied risk measure associated with it. I think about this absolutely every day, every time I choose to deploy capital. You think something can go up 10x? Well, if there is an equal chance it can be down 90%, then (simplistically) you are looking at a 0% risk-adjusted return…and I'd look at other opportunities. There is no such thing as a financial return that didn't have risk associated. Being a good investor means accurately assessing the risk associated with an investment, and measuring your potential return relative to that. There are complicated formulas around risk measures, but I personally like to think about it simply relative to volatility. It's just a proxy, but it works…i.e. what is the maximum this asset could fluctuate in price before I'd really be surprised? That gives you a sense of the underlying risk, and therefore how much you need it to "return" to you for it to be worth it. It's not perfect, but it can keep you out of trouble. For example, some people would say that venture investments usually have a 30-50% risk premium associated, so funds typically need to see a path to returns above that measure to have a positive risk-adjusted return
    • One of my go-to's (which again, isn't perfect but something I've seen happen) is when retail investors start pouring into an asset class, especially with margin, you are closer to a top than you realize.
    • Top-down analysis is a killer. Hearing how big the market could be and what percentage market share the product will take? That is empty analysis and it absolutely ravaged investors during the dot-com bubble. I mean annihilated. SO many investments based on that flawed thinking.
    • Business model sustainability can get lost during euphoria. Can the businesses being invested in ever really turn a profit, and sustain themselves? What happens when things get more competitive, outside capital dries up, etc?
    • To my earlier point about symmetric pressures on asset classes, one of my good friends asked for my opinion prior to the CBOE opening options trading for bitcoin. At the time, I advised him against investing, simply because options entering a "long-only" situation will pretty much 100% going to focus on shorting. I didn't do a particularly good job of convincing him though, since he went in anyway. At the end of the day, more exchanges, more funds, more volume, more investors doesn't just equate to more buying. It equates to more balance, which as the size of the asset class grows, the pressure for balance increases. Keep that in mind too with all this ETF stuff…
    • One very successful, smart PM I knew a long time ago said that if an investment you bought is down 20%, sell it regardless of how much you believe in it. What he meant was you aren't as intelligent as you think you are, and therefore sometimes mistakes you make are not visible to you right away. An investment you went into that is down 20%, in his mind, is more likely a mistake than a temporary market glitch. He's basically saying you got the risk-adjusted return wrong, so bail. I admit I have ignored this concept throughout my career, and I have usually been killed for doing so.
    • As far as making you feel better or dealing with being down big, look at it this way: Everything you have is an asset. Your money, your relationships, your reputation, your mind, your experience, your word. So you used to have $60k and now have $20k? You gained $40k of market experience. I could see betting long-term on an investor who has $10k after losing 90% of his/her original principal before I would bet on that same investor with $100k without that experience. Fact is, over the long term having a healthy respect for financial loss/down markets is absolutely necessary for long term success. Don't throw that away, but cherish it, nurture it, and weave the experience into your evolving investment philosophy.

    Couple other things to watch out for (not necessarily avoid, just increase the risk measure):

    • Investments where you are only investing in the quality of the "team" (happens in every market, not just crypto) but without a viable business model,
    • Investments where the business is providing a solution where there isn't a problem,
    • Investments with fundamental structural problems (no leverage over the supplier or customer, investments where revenue growth is driven dis-economically with no path to sustainability)

    Again, just my 2c. My mentor would say you never take 100% of what anyone is saying based on their own experiences, but usually in any person's experience there is always something in there that you can take that is valuable. I hope I have provided something of value to someone.

    submitted by /u/valuational
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    While we keep focus mostly on the market price, history was made. A local shop in Kenya was trading the first tomatoes on the Blockchain. This might be the answer to the economic instability and corruption the developing countries suffer from.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 11:55 PM PDT

    As the markets bleed, this happens

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 05:31 PM PDT

    If we want the ecosystem to grow, It's important to make life easier for merchants who accept cryptocurrency as a payment

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 12:19 AM PDT

    Do you think, Delta and Blockfolio are using our data against us?

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 01:54 AM PDT

    I mean, yeah, they protect our privacy. They probably anonymize our data and nobody will ever know the portfolio of person XY. So we are safe, right?

    With such a massive amount of data, even if they do not relate it directly to persons (who cares for that anyways), they can see a lot of "overalls". Which coins do most of the people hold? Which coins were recently sold by the masses? Which coins are on the watchlist of the people, meaning that pumping there could have a huge impact on the price? Did the recent dump of the promising coin X work and did only a few ppl hold onto it, so it is a candidate to buy in low now? Or did nobody sell and it is not to be considered "safe" to pump it?

    You would be the biggest fool to not use such data, if you have it. Think about it. I know that at least blockfolio is funded by private investors and they do not want to charge users for money at all (that what an admin in their telegram told me). They now charge coins directly for push notifications and stuff, but I doubt this will be their only income. Who knows what those "private investors" goal is.

    submitted by /u/TrudleR
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    We need to discuss BAKKT

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 09:01 PM PDT

    BAKKT is a platform coming in November that is owned by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) which is the owner of the NYSE.

    BAKKT is a platform designed to allow INSTITUTIONAL, merchant, and consumer participation.

    Everyone has always talked about institutional money entering crypto. This is literally it. How is this not insane news? Pundits are already talking about how they will overshadow coinbase instantly, and coinbase is what drew in the masses last year in the first place.

    submitted by /u/hellybeaner
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    On This Day In Crypto History

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 05:29 PM PDT

    On This Day In Crypto History

    BTC rallied towards $3500 after the BCH Hardfork

    Vitalik unveiled plans for Plasma on Ethereum

    NEO completed rebranding from AntShares

    2011: Bitcoin was 'dead' after falling from $35 to $7 - 'Adrian Covert' r/https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2011/08/the-bitcoin-is-dying-whatever/

    https://i.redd.it/1lwo6m3d4kf11.png

    submitted by /u/nugget_alex
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    Bitcoin Cash ‘Chain-Splitting’ Bug was Detected by Bitcoin Core Dev.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 04:59 PM PDT

    Scalability is Blockchain’s biggest problem but it can be resolved. In an attempt to solve these issues, IOTW has recently invented a new way of mining, known as Proof-of-Assignment (PoA).

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 12:52 AM PDT

    My sign for my sister running her half iron man race tomorrow

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 11:18 PM PDT

    Wow Kucoin responded fast to the fud!

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 10:02 AM PDT

    Comparison of developer/power-user activity for different blockchains (StackExchange submissions)

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 01:08 AM PDT

    Who doesn't hold BTC in their portfolio and why?

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 03:11 PM PDT

    I'm getting increasingly doubtful of the longevity of BTC owing mainly to how reliant it is on mining and how heavily it is influenced (controlled) by such a small number of ppl/organisations, plus of course the energy demands to verify transactions. Whilst I consider BTC as a store of value, and a leader for institutional investors in the short term, medium and long I'm consider my existing bag being redistributed accordingly. What are your own reasons for not holding BTC?

    submitted by /u/ianmd
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    KuCoin releases clarification on empty Hong Kong office rumor

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 02:22 AM PDT

    ICOs Have Sold Nearly 100,000 ETH in the Past 30 Days

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 03:14 PM PDT

    The next bull run doesn’t happen with good news, it happens when the market stops reacting to bad news.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 08:26 AM PDT

    How close we are to the bottom though, I'm not going to assume, that's up to you. Don't try to look for good news because after the amount of loss we've taken so far this year, it won't help. Try to look for no response to bad news.

    For example, if the ETF (which frankly, I don't think we need) everyone is so excited about isn't approved and the price doesn't go down more than it normally does or continues to stagnate, there's a good chance there will be a turnaround.

    submitted by /u/UndeadWolf222
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    Time to Accumulate Icon ICX (Icon ICX under $0.50?)

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 02:46 AM PDT

    A shapeshift alternative that charges no additional commission or withdrawal fees, only pay the trading fees. Currently supports Bitcoin, Vertcoin, Litecoin & DigiByte.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 11:49 AM PDT

    Governments should stay away from cryptocurrencies: Economist, Jeffrey Tucker

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 12:55 AM PDT

    Blockfolio paying games with me this morning.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 11:22 PM PDT

    I've Been Tracking my Crypto Portfolio for 9 Months! This is What it Looks Like.

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 09:28 AM PDT

    A ELASTOS POWER LIST, to remind you how big ELASTOS is

    Posted: 11 Aug 2018 02:58 PM PDT

    GSENetwork Incentive Model

    Posted: 12 Aug 2018 02:00 AM PDT

    Inbuilt usage incentive mechanism that encourages more on-chain transactions:

    • User
    • The foundation
    • Suppliers
    • GSE holders

    Network participants get rewarded for every valid transaction, naturally creating an incentive to record more activities on the blockchain. Incentives will be balanced dynamically based on the ecosystem activity, with the aim to ensure fairness across time periods Model Inbuilt usage incentive mechanism that encourages more on-chain transactions:

    Network participants get rewarded for every valid transaction, naturally creating an incentive to record more activities on the blockchain. Incentives will be balanced dynamically based on the ecosystem activity, with the aim to ensure fairness across time periods

    For more information, kindly visit https://gse.network

    submitted by /u/Saylumii
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