[Daily Discussion] Tuesday, July 03, 2018 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, July 03, 2018
- [Altcoin Discussion] Tuesday, July 03, 2018
- BTC Wins June, ETH and XLM take overall lead (EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - Month Six/Half-time Report - Down 66%)
- Alt coins are Crypto equivalent to money printing.
- How do we comply with FinCEN and Title 31 laws/ regulations?
- OTC Transaction That Cannot be Executed on Exchanges
- Automatic Bitcoin price channel prediction. Support and resistance levels. Updated hourly.
- Launch of Digital Asset Exchange Open Partnership Program
- Food for thought
- Setting up an OTC Desk
| [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, July 03, 2018 Posted: 02 Jul 2018 09:06 PM PDT Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Tuesday, July 03, 2018 Posted: 02 Jul 2018 09:06 PM PDT Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
Thread guidelines:
If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too. Other ways to interact:
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| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 08:33 AM PDT tl;dr: The. Pain! BTC wins June and Ethereum wins first half of 2018 (with Stellar coming in at a close second place) Full blog post can be found here. Okay, let's dive in: The Experiment: Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I'm starting to move away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018. Plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product. My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. The Rules: Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Month Six/Half-time Report - Down 66\% Ouch. June saw the continuation and acceleration of May's downturn. All cryptos included in the experiment fell at least -16% for the month and all remain in negative territory for the year. June Winners - As we've seen in past downturns, the more well known and established cryptos did the best this month. Bitcoin dominated, down -16%, followed by Ethereum and Dash, both down -23%. A pretty sad state of affairs for crypto in June if both second place finishers shed about a fourth of their value. June Losers - IOTA got hammered this month, down -44%, followed by Cardano and Stellar and down -39% and -37% respectively. Cardano has had a rough couple of months - it was down -32% in May as well. Overall update – Ethereum wins first half followed closely by Stellar while NEM fades Since this report marks the half way point in the year, let's take a second to look at where we started. Take a minute to go over to coinmarketcap.com's historical snapshot page and scroll to 31st of December, 2017 or visit my blog for the screenshot. You back? Welcome back. The big picture is glaringly obvious - there's been a massive free-fall in the cryptosphere since the beginning of the year. The worst of the worst so far has been NEM down a stunning -82%. NEM has also fallen the most in rank dropping from #8 in January to #17 today and seems to be in danger of falling out of the Top Twenty. Cardano and Ripple had a difficult first half as well, down -79% and -78% respectively. In terms of bright spots, the title of best performer of the original Top Ten goes to Ethereum (currently "only" down -37% for the year) followed closely by Stellar (down -41%). Interestingly, the first half of 2018 can be seen as a battle between two cryptos: the experiment has shown that each and every month has been won by either Stellar or Ethereum. In terms of movement, there's actually less than I anticipated. Only NEM and Dash have fallen out of the Top Ten (NEM way down at #17 and Dash at #14) having been replaced by EOS (now at #5) and Tether (currently at #10). EOS is the real story of 2018. It hasn't gained tons in value but the fact that the price is up at all in the sea of red has resulted in a move from #12 at the beginning of the year to the #5 spot now. I guess I should have done a Top Twelve experiment instead! Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector: June saw the total market cap shrink by approximately $75B. As painful as it felt, this is about the same as was lost in May and no where near the amount lost in March. Overall, from January 1st, the market has lost -55% or about $317B in value. Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin dominance has been fairly easy to predict this year. As we've seen, when the overall market declines Bitcoin dominance increases as people presumably move from their alt coin positions into the more stable and well established projects. It was no different this month: Bitcoin dominance increased significantly from 38.6% to 42.5% in June. Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018: My $1000 initial investment is now worth about $340, down -66%. This is the low point so far this year, slightly worse than March. Implications/Observations: I think many thought (or hoped) that March signaled a bottom in the crypo space. Although June has been rough (we saw many new record lows for 2018) it's important to point out that the end of the month has seen a bit of a bounce and that the total market cap is currently right around where it was in March. Not great news, but at least we're not significantly lower than we were n March. And as I've been putting together this report, July has started off well. As chaotic as the cryptocurrency market can appear, this experiment has exposed some patterns. For example, when the market drops, money predictably flows back into more well established and well known cryptocurrencies. See Bitcoin in June. Also, without exception the individual months have been won by either Ethereum or Stellar which have bested the original Top Ten all year long. And, of course, focusing solely on holding the Top Ten continues to be a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -55% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -66% over the same period of time. This approximately 11% differential continues to widen as the year progresses (for the last few months it was at 9%). At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to underperform compared to the market overall. I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Up only about 1.7% so far for the year, it's not even keeping up with inflation - but much better than being down -66%! Conclusion: In a word, the first half of 2018 has been...painful. Have we seen the true bottom? Let's see if the second half of the year will be better than the first half. The bar has been set extremely low, it shouldn't be that difficult! Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you've found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. What do you think about the way the market is going this year and when (if ever) do you think we'll see a proper bull rally? Is July the month things turn around? Catch up with previous experiment updates: May Recap: down -51% April Recap: down -37% March/Q1 Recap: down -63% February Recap: down -32% January Recap: down -20% [link] [comments]  |
| Alt coins are Crypto equivalent to money printing. Posted: 03 Jul 2018 08:25 AM PDT The preditable part of this market is that when Bitcoin rises, alts rise EVEN MORE. The proliferation of alt coins and the unbreakable link to BTC effectively means infinite money printing. Every new coin that latches on is another round of quantitative easing. For BTC to rise 10%, it has to carry 40 other coins to 20% gains, and that number is only increasing. We will NEVER see another major price rise unless this link is severed. Value increase will simply be reflected by yet more coins pegged to BTC. [link] [comments]  |
| How do we comply with FinCEN and Title 31 laws/ regulations? Posted: 03 Jul 2018 01:52 AM PDT I would like to begin trading on LocalBitcoins and similar fiat-to-crypto peer-to-peer exchanges. I am trying to find all the rules I have to follow to do this legally but from the articles I've read about people being arrested for trading on LBC, it doesn't appear to be black and white. While some of these guys were clearly breaking the law, there are some instances where a trader is arrested for "running an unlicensed money transmission business" with not much detail on exactly why or what specifically what rules were broken. Here are just a few: I'm sure there are plenty more. So far, I've summed up to morals of these stories up to the following:
Currently I'm attempting to read through the FinCEN website and Title 31 itself but they're not exactly written for laymen. Does anyone have any insight there can share on this topic? Any help or guidance at all is appreciated. [link] [comments]  |
| OTC Transaction That Cannot be Executed on Exchanges Posted: 03 Jul 2018 08:31 AM PDT Hey, I am looking to connect a large seller with funds that cannot be executed on exchanges to a buyer looking for that amount. My partner knows the buyer directly who will provide KYC/AML and Proof of Funds, as well as an intent to buy under the proper legal framework. I would love to make the connection, please let me know if you or some group you know may be interested? Mining companies and consortiums are welcome! [link] [comments]  |
| Automatic Bitcoin price channel prediction. Support and resistance levels. Updated hourly. Posted: 02 Jul 2018 10:30 AM PDT Hi all! We launched experimental tool which makes technical analysis easier. We are trying to predict support and resistance levels for different timeframes. Medium article with better formatting: https://medium.com/bitgur/automatic-price-channel-prediction-fe05dd544086 Screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/hNMOWzs.png BTC channel prediction: https://bitgur.com/coin/BTC/prediction DescriptionThis tool consists of three charts which help with technical analysis for the next 24 hours, 7 and 30 days. Each chart is based on data from three previous periods. A channel prediction for 24 hours is based on data from the last 72 hours. A channel prediction for 7 days is based on data from the last 21 days and a prediction for 30 days is also constructed. The weight of data decreases with time. Reports are updated hourly. Each chart has the following elements:1. Volume profile histogram in the left part of the chart. Volume profile histogram is based on the data from the previous three periods and is designed to determinate price channel. You may read more on how to use this type of chart in technical analysis in this article on one of the popular trading sites: https://www.tradingview.com/wiki/Volume_Profile 2. Red lines They are edges of a current price channel based on volume profile analysis. 3. Orange lines They are main resistance and support levels for the chart, which were achieved in the course of past trades. They do not depend on the selected period. If more than 10 levels are found for the current price range, then 10 most significant are selected and shown on the chart. The weight of the level is based on a scale from 0 to 100. Where 100 is the weight of the global minimum or maximum (depending on which trend was stronger). The weight of the remaining levels is always less than 100 and shows how significant the minimum or maximum was. 4. Cryptocurrency price chart It's weighted price from dozens of main exchanges. Probable Use Cases1. If you do not have a short-term trading strategy and want to open or close a position in the near future, the table of current levels can help you choose the best price. 2. You have a short-term trading strategy, but it does not take into consideration all historical minimums and maximums. In this case, it will be useful for you to see levels that can significantly influence the behaviour of the market. The choice of a timeframe (24 hours, 7 or 30 days) for analysis depends on your trading strategy. LinksDespite the fact that we create prediction page for several hundreds of coins you must remember that this tool can be useful mostly for coins with large trade volume. Bitcoin: https://bitgur.com/coin/BTC/prediction Ethereum: https://bitgur.com/coin/ETH/prediction Ripple: https://bitgur.com/coin/XRP/prediction Bitcoin Cash: https://bitgur.com/coin/BCH/prediction EOS: https://bitgur.com/coin/EOS/prediction DisclaimerFirst of all, I need to tell you that this tool isn't "Magic wand" and it's unlikely that you can get your first Lambo immediately after exploring this tool. Secondly, we don't sell anything and don't promote any coins or trade signals. Thirdly, we still don't have a Nobel Prize in Economics, and this tool is just our attempt to understand market better, find trading patterns and satisfy our interest in developing high-performance analytical tools. [link] [comments]  |
| Launch of Digital Asset Exchange Open Partnership Program Posted: 03 Jul 2018 01:23 AM PDT Dear Valued Customers, After 6 months of closed development, OKEx's next-generation exchange system has been brought to testing. On 20 Jun, 2018 (Hong Kong time), OKEx officially launches the Digital Asset Exchange Open Partnership Program and begins the recruitment of "OK Partners". By sharing the fruits of OKEx's matching system, counter system, cold wallet, hot wallet, clearing system, multilingual customer support, as well as global know-your-customer and anti-laundering system cultivated for years with our OK Partners, the program is set to nurture a new generation of digital asset exchanges characterized by high autonomy, efficiency and transparency. Aspiring teams who aim to establish their own digital asset exchanges, only need to provide their domain names, logos, operation force, and to focus on the management and operations of the exchange. OKEx's global technical team, on the other hand, will provide R&D and system maintenance supports to the teams, who will share the high liquidity and advanced trading experience offered by the world-leading digital asset exchange. The 1st phase of the program offers 100 places for participating teams. Applicants are required to deposit 500,000 OKB in their accounts, excluding the amount locked for Designated Merchant, New Listing Vote, and Prime Investors. The ideal candidates for OK Partners should possess solid industry experience, quest for service excellence, and strong industry influence. The 1st phase is expected to go online in late July. Interested parties should submit their contact person's name and phone number as well as team description to okbd(at)okex.com for application. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jul 2018 12:07 AM PDT As someone who got caught up in the frenzy that was the 2017 mania.I have to say the past 6 months have been quite a disappointment.With that being said ,I decided to lookup the number of millionaires in the world right now and from a simple google search I found out there are currently 36 million millionaires.If I do a hypotherical where the available BTC was to be divided among such high worth individuals, you quickly realise the scarcity argument people make regarding BTC.As someone who is working on getting myself 1 BTC(long road ahead).It is amusing to think that my attempts to collect such a desirable amount is only available as long as the worlds millionares are deeply behind the curve in this respect.If I were to own 3 BTC's then only 5 million individuals could do so at any given time and this ignores the big whales who own hundreds or even a few thousand BTC's.It is by learning and speculating can you come to a conclusion that BTC has no where to go but up in the long run.The only question is,how long will the long run take ! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Jul 2018 10:26 AM PDT Hello, Just curious to get everyone's opinion as to where the best place to setup a virtual OTC Desk would be? Some considerations would be Regulatory restrictions, tax requirements, licensing fees, etc. I'm thinking Hong Kong would be the best place to be incorporated as it's also close to the mainland. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
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