• Breaking News

    Saturday, June 2, 2018

    Home Unlabelled [Daily Discussion] Saturday, June 02, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, June 02, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    June 02, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, June 02, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, June 02, 2018

    Posted: 01 Jun 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, June 02, 2018

    Posted: 01 Jun 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • Discussion related to recent events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • General questions about altcoins

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
    • This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
    • No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

    If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    EXPERIMENT - Top 10 Crypto "Index Fund" 2018 - (Month/Episode Five - The Bears Strike Back - down 51%)

    Posted: 02 Jun 2018 12:20 AM PDT

    tl;dr - Month/Episode Five (The Bears Strike Back) - IOTA wins May and Stellar Holds the Overall Lead - Oh, and I'm Down 51% since January 1st.

    Full blog post with pretty pictures/spreadsheets here. Links to past updates at bottom of the post.

    The Experiment: Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners, a type of homemade Index Fund* for those looking to get into cryptos but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. (*without weighting and rebalancing it's not a true Index Fund - but hopefully still helpful as a sort of a proxy for the entire market).

    The Rules: Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

    Month/Episode Five (May) update: The Bears Strike Back

    After a hopeful April, May saw the cryptocurrency market take a turn for the worse. IOTA holds the honor of being the only Top Ten crypto to finish the month ahead, up a whopping .01 cent at the time writing. All cryptos included in the experiment are back to negative territory for the year.

    May Winners - IOTA alone held its value this month, moved up two positions (from 11th to 9th), and climbed back into the Top Ten - it wins May easily. Ethereum finished second, down only about -10%. Not bad for a fairly bloody month.

    May Losers - NEM and Dash were the clear losers this month, both losing -34\% of their value and both slipping down the rankings (NEM one slot from 14 to 15 and Dash two slots from 12 to 14) followed closely by Cardano down -32% in May.

    Overall update – Stellar continues to lead while NEM, Ripple, and Dash lag

    Looking at the big picture, in many ways not much has changed since last month. Although Stellar is down -6% for the year, it is still the best performing of the original Top Ten by far. A distant second is Ethereum, down -19% so far in 2018.

    After Ethereum there's a big ugly gap where it seems some of the players just fall off a cliff. There's a virtual three way tie between the absolute worst performers with NEM, Ripple, and DASH each down around -70% on the year.

    Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

    May saw a -20% drop in crypto and the total market cap shed approximately $80B. From January 1st, the market has lost -42% or about $240B in value.

    Bitcoin dominance:

    As the pattern so far this year would predict, when the overall market declines Bitcoin dominance increases as people presumably move from their alt coin positions into the more stable and well established projects. It was no different this month: Bitcoin dominance increased slightly from 37% to 38.6% in May.

    Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018: My $1000 initial investment is now worth about $487, down just over -51%.

    Implications: May was another rough month in cryptolandia, but for a little perspective just remember March was far, far worse. Stellar continues to be the project to beat in 2018 - even when it loses, it consistantly seems to lose the least. For those keeping score, IOTA's strong showing in May broke Stellar's two month streak of best performing Top Ten crypto.

    Again, focusing solely on holding the Top Ten continues to be a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -42% from January, the Top Ten are down -51% over the same period of time. This approximately 9% differential is about the same as the last two months in a row. At no point in the experiment has this kind of investment in the Top Ten outperformed the overall market.

    I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. May has continued to see volatility, but as of this post it's in the green, up about 1.2% for the year.

    Conclusion: After some nice upward movement in April, the market gave up some of its gains in May. With the political turmoil brewing in Spain and Italy at the start of June, it should be an interesting month. If regular markets react negatively to current events, will money shift into the crypto space? We'll see.

    Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you've found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.

    What do you think about the way the market is going this year and when (if ever) do you think we'll see a proper bull rally? Is June the month? What effect, if any, will current events in Europe have on the cryptocurrency market in June?

    Catch up with previous experiment updates:

    April Recap

    March/Q1 Recap

    February Recap

    January Recap Experiment Launch Video

    submitted by /u/Joe-M-4
    [link] [comments]

    Moon Math Update: Noob DCA Strategy -- Second Edition -- Vol. 6

    Posted: 01 Jun 2018 02:11 PM PDT

    Noob DCA Strategy

    https://www.moonmath.win

    The noob DCA strategy is ongoing. Continue making your regularly scheduled, affordable, and responsible purchases using disposable income that you can afford to lose.

    We have completed 28 days in the noob DCA and there are 213 days left for you to establish your first full position in Bitcoin.

    No bubbles are identical

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QsCraIAe/ Please disregard the errors in period duration in this chart. It's corrected in later charts.

    The rate of change in bubble cycles shouldn't match up day over day. Instead, we should look at indicators to signal and eventually confirm market position. The chart above is meant to illustrate a possible market bottom that is historically rare. Matching up those market bottoms and stretching data to match the peaks and valleys is more illustrative.

    So what happens when we do that?

    Projecting the two most relevant bubbles

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/tejeK3RY/ Please disregard the errors in period duration in this chart. It's corrected in later charts.

    That chart takes the only two periods in the past WHERE weekly RSI is descending to historically lows levels AND there is a 6 + week following period where Weekly BBand width is less than 40%.

    Looking at how these data overlap in the 55 week period following May of 2015 creeps me out. The similarities between then and now are... uncomfortably symmetric. 55 weeks is an arbitrary period of time that I marked on the chart. It's irrelevant other than the fact that it makes the pattern easier to see and it highlights the difference between price performance in preceding periods of price stability.

    Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. It's also hard to believe that it's the coincidence that it is.

    What happens when you stop caring about RSI and just look at extended periods of stability?

    Projecting all relevant bubbles

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/f8mMjUUt/

    You get more data points. Not a tone more, but you get more. This chart effectively recreates one of /u/azop 's stability charts, but in trading view. /r/BitcoinMarkets has a long history with projecting extended periods of stability as progenitors to bubble cycles. This is not a new concept. What distinguishes our current position is the direction and position of RSI.

    Previous posts in this series

    New TradingView chart published

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/EwsyTSJs-Projecting-From-Stability/ had to re-publish because I defined the indicator incorrectly

    Currently:

    Bitcoin is potentially in a period of consolidation at the end of a large bubble cycle. Movement will seem sideways and down until indicators signal the next wave of adoption. Sentiment will remain low. Recovery will be slow for the next 7 - 15 weeks. Bitcoin obituaries are surging and general sentiment is very low.

    A breakout through local resistance at 10k can happen as soon as mid July but may take until October. Significant price discovery is being established at the bottom of a new long-term trading range and may confirm the bottom of a new channel that should last through the next halving event, in 2020.

    The US government seems to have greenlit development of trading desks and financial tools at major.

    Crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation are just beginning to kibosh unchecked growth in alt markets. Bitcoin's market domination will likely be confirmed after G20 nations implement effective regulations against rampant gambling and illegal financial tools.

    Large leveraged positions against the altcoin markets still aren't available to most traders who operate in compliance with local laws, but they will probably be made available over the next 1 - 2 years.

    A : Medium-term consolidation

    Resistance to growth remains through June, part of July, and possibly into August. Bearish and moderate performance is accompanied by nearly unprecedented price stability. Two heavy resistance lines are broken before bullish sentiment can return.

    B : New ATH sometime between September 2018 and June 2019

    Heavy resistance is broken--drawn from the 2014 ATH and the January 2018 breakdown from our local ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for many months. A new wave of adoption from new markets is eventually identified. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous and or fraudulent Crypto assets and securities. Government crackdowns and arrests begin to pile up in altmarket ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern. Capital escapes from small alts to the top 5 - 10. There are less than 20 Cryptos with a market cap over 500 million USD.

    C :The ascending wedge drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break.

    We bounce off an ascending wedge and establish a new ATH between September 2018 and July 2019. The bottom of the channel is retested near the current ATH. Capital flight into Bitcoin from alts will eventually pushes bitcoin through the resulting falling wedge.

    Bitcoin's user base rapidly grows. It's fueled by speculation that institutional adoption and an ETF are on the way. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.

    Segwit and Lightning adoption demonstrate 1000x increase in possible transaction support while significantly decreasing transaction fees. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises Bitcoin as a tool ready or nearly ready for "Main Street." A use case for Lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.

    D : Bounce off the top of the new long-term channel by October 2019

    Speculative fever ignites again and Bitcoin hits the top of a new, yet to be formed, long-term channel for the first time since December 2017. Our new ATH is somewhere between 50k and 160k USD/BTC. The correction to the bottom of the channel triggers a fresh wave of obituaries.

    Hitting the top of the channel signals a long-term bear market and moves the price into a comparatively moderate range, well under 100K USD. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.

    E : Projecting into the future

    By the end of 2019, 1 million USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions in the United States. The halving and its market impact are discussed regularly in mainstream media outlets. Fees are so low on lightning transactions that you can still buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin at the speculative peak without noticing a substantial price difference.

    By the end of 2020, small businesses begin to use Bitcoin as a tool to manage their supply chains without debt so their payments can be sent and received in real time. Communities that exchange value this way start to out compete large organizations and a small new economy begins to form around business that exclusively use Bitcoin and smart contracts to manage and coordinate distributed workloads and resources.

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
    [link] [comments]

    Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Waiting for Reversal Confirmation

    Posted: 01 Jun 2018 04:58 PM PDT

    Bitcoin could be ready to pull up from its slide as price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on its 1-hour chart. Price has yet to test the neckline around $7,600 and make an upside break to confirm that an uptrend is underway. https://www.satoshi.press/2018/06/bitcoin-btc-price-analysis-waiting-for.html

    submitted by /u/OptimalTwo
    [link] [comments]

    Anyone else squeamish about using bitcoin?

    Posted: 02 Jun 2018 05:34 AM PDT

    I hope this isn't too offtopic here, but I'm just wondering what your thoughts are. Bitcoin is used for illegal things - never mind some silk road stuff, think CP and terrorism. Doesn't anyone who participates - doesn't matter how - indirectly support criminals? This could apply to any cryptocurrency as well though I guess?

    submitted by /u/asdfgh98976
    [link] [comments]

    Good crypto/trading RSS feeds?

    Posted: 01 Jun 2018 01:13 PM PDT

    I reckon it is a good time to replenish the RSS reader, crypto Twitter (and, cough, Reddit), whilst it has its moments sometimes doesn't offer a meaty enough read especially on slow days as we have been having a lot lately. Does anyone care to share some exceptional written feeds?

    (Also, the request is mostly for written feeds, but podcast recommendations are also welcome. If you are interested in trading in general, and not just crypto, I have found both chatwithtraders and bettersystemtrader both to be excellent podcasts, especially because both presenters ask incredibly good questions and also because of all the "big" names in trading they've managed to interview)

    submitted by /u/desGroles
    [link] [comments]
    Read more
    at

    No comments:

    Post a Comment