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    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 26, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    May 26, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 26, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 26, 2018

    Posted: 25 May 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, May 26, 2018

    Posted: 25 May 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • Discussion related to recent events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • General questions about altcoins

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
    • This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
    • No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

    If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Bitcoin Block Reward Halving

    Posted: 26 May 2018 04:22 AM PDT

    The next block reward halving is estimated to occur in May of 2020.

    After this occurs there will only be 2,600,000 coins left to be distributed over the next 120 years, around 85% of all coins will have been mined, and new bitcoins will come into existance at a miniscule rate of 1.8% per year.

    Institutions know this. This bear market will be their last chance to get in. They either plan to buy the bottom of this bear market or they are just blindly hoping bitcoin dies before 2020.

    Within the next 18 - 24 months we will witness institutional buying trying to outbid the rest of the world. The smart ones are inching into their position bit by bit now as the price falls to reach their mandated portfolio percentage allocation, but the ones hoping bitcoin dies will be the ones rushing into this market at the last minute.

    Do you think the next big rally starts before or after the next block reward halving, and why?

    submitted by /u/slvbtc
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    Moon Math Update: Noob DCA Strategy -- Second Edition -- Vol. 5

    Posted: 25 May 2018 11:06 AM PDT

    Stepping Back

    I've been reflecting on the big picture and trying to get a sense of where we're at.

    How much do the last 10 months of price action reflect the trajectory and history of Bitcoin?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wqpnJENx/

    There's a red channel and a blue channel. The red channel is a bearish forecast, IMO, and the blue channel is a bullish forecast.

    Shifting perspective

    Maybe there's another way to look at long-term changes in price, though?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Gr9Pl8i/

    Another way to think about the price of bitcoin might be to think about the boom and bust cycles. Over extended periods, the price of bitcoin has always gone up, but there have been obvious long-term bear markets. The most noteworthy is probably the 2014/2015 bear market.

    Looking for patterns

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2BpkolRK/

    What stands out to me about this period is that it's the only period where Bitcoin has broken out into a new price level and then backed off to the bottom of the previous price range for an extended period.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/XNXnjkY9/

    We can see that weekly BBands never stay contracted below 50% for most of this period and that the bear market doesn't decidedly end until there's a period of consolidation where BBands stayed below 25% and the price stays range bound for months.

    Looking for exigency in technical analysis doesn't work

    The 2014/2015 bear market is a truly unique period of time in Bitcoin's price history. The market conditions that set it up and maintained it can't be summed up in a simple technical analysis. If you're curious about why the market stayed bearish for so long, and what conditions set the market up for that environment then I highly recommend you read Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money

    Consider your narrative

    I've been around since 2013. I bought very small amounts of bitcoin using a DCA strategy through my early years... and I didn't have the money to spend. My wife questioned my sanity and to this day we're embarrassed to say that we bought Bitcoin at that time. Purchasing Bitcoin was and remains a secret to our friends and family.

    To me, the 2018 bear market is nothing like the bear market we experienced in 2014/2015. I'm curious to know if there's anyone here who was buying Bitcoin at that time who feels a strong connection between that period of time and today. But, when I see comparisons to 2014 they feel mechanical; comparisons I've read aren't originating from people who lived and breath bitcoin then and now... or they don't remember it.

    Finding new beginnings

    If we're trying to understand the 2016 to present bull run, and if 2014 and 2015 aren't relevant, where should we look?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/D2eoO9AW/

    Literally, the rest of Bitcoin's price history. I've argued that you can't really look at pre-2012 price levels and draw lines that are relevant to today's prices. But, we can see what usually happens to bitcoin over an extended period of time.

    • Bitcoin goes into bubbles, establishes new price levels, ranges in the the bottom of that new price level, and then bubbles again.
    • Bull markets that push Bitcoin into new price ranges can be fast or slow, and sometimes practical price ranges are skipped over entirely, never to be revisited.
    • The duration of a bear market and a period of consolidation is unpredictable.

    Reflecting on what you know to be true

    It's not out of the question that Bitcoin goes sideways for the rest of 2018. It's also possible that it will drop into a lower range this year. But, as far as speculative bets go, I'm not sure when you'll ever find a better period of time to make a slow, careful, and financially responsible investment in Bitcoin.

    • Is it possible that bitcoin finds new lows in 2018? Yes
    • Is it likely? Nobody knows
    • Is it worth investing a portion of your real income in it? Absolutely.

    There are 220 days left in our DCA.

    Good hunting

    https://www.moonmath.win

    Previous posts in this series

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    Ruby Bittrex client with Buy/Sell orders support

    Posted: 26 May 2018 09:54 AM PDT

    Hi there,

    I had issues with most Ruby gems to use the Bittrex API, especially if I wanted to make buy/sell orders.

    So I decided to build one and to put it open source:

    https://github.com/tarraschk/bittrex_ruby

    It is fully documented, supports the full Bittrex 1.1 API, and it is also tested with Travis-CI.

    Enjoy!

    submitted by /u/tarraschk
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    ELI5: Proof of Bitcoin market manipulation on Coinbase Pro

    Posted: 26 May 2018 12:25 AM PDT

    Hi Everyone. Heard a lot recently about market manipulation where big bitcoin whales set up buy and sell walls to soak up bitcoin market movements before pushing the market in a particular direction. Link below shows stagnation in the market from these manipulators. Can someone explain ELI5 why this happens? http://cuberoot64.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-26-at-07.50.50.png

    submitted by /u/asaccin
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    Trading/Investing as an individual vs. as a one-person company?

    Posted: 25 May 2018 01:51 PM PDT

    Any ideas on which one is more favorable and makes more sense for a lone trader/investor?

    I have a freelance "company" (based in the Netherlands) which I can use for creating a corporate account at exchanges. But I have a couple of personal accounts as well. Only one of them has actual funds on it, though.

    I want to clear things up and focus on one type. So I wonder...

    submitted by /u/ernest-m
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