[Daily Discussion] Sunday, April 01, 2018 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Sunday, April 01, 2018
- How do we make money in the Crypto Bear Market?
- Did we hit the “death cross” everyone was so worried about a few days ago?
- Any recommendations on leveraged broker? JAFX? SimpleFX? AVA Trade? I've read mixed reviews ...
- Log graph today of bitcoins price from 2010 to March 2018 - ? catch a falling knife?
- What’s your bottom price prediction and time frame?
- Coinfloor increases GBP withdrawal minimums 666 times
- Bitcoin Monthly Trends
- Glitchfinex: Anyone else having had problems during the short squeeze?
- Market Psychology And Price Action - An Analysis and Projection
- COINFLOOR INCEASES MINIMUM FIAT WITHDRAWAL FROM GBP 15 TO GBP 10000, WITHOUT A SINGLE DAYS' NOTICE. IS THIS A HOAX?
- Questions about arbing LakeBTC
- Exchanges are designed for 1 thing - to steal your money
- BTCC Organizing First-Ever March for Crypto to Make Litecoin the Official Global Currency
- Shorting literally is the new paradigm now
| [Daily Discussion] Sunday, April 01, 2018 Posted: 31 Mar 2018 09:06 PM PDT Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| How do we make money in the Crypto Bear Market? Posted: 31 Mar 2018 11:30 PM PDT |
| Did we hit the “death cross” everyone was so worried about a few days ago? Posted: 31 Mar 2018 06:37 PM PDT I'd check myself, but I'm too dumb to know how to pull up the 200 and 50-day MA on tradingview and at this point I'm too afraid to ask. [link] [comments]  |
| Any recommendations on leveraged broker? JAFX? SimpleFX? AVA Trade? I've read mixed reviews ... Posted: 01 Apr 2018 08:31 AM PDT Looking for a leveraged broker to trade the big 3. I already have a bitfinex account, and am wondering the experience people have had with other leveraged brokers such as the ones in my title or other ones - specifically with withdrawing funds. I've heard horror stories on facebook about JAFX and AVA Trade where they 30 days+ to get your funds out., Is that still the case? [link] [comments]  |
| Log graph today of bitcoins price from 2010 to March 2018 - ? catch a falling knife? Posted: 01 Apr 2018 12:03 AM PDT https://imgur.com/gallery/nD4rH That $6.9K price today at the bottom looks tempting, if you believe bitcoin will follow the long term growth line on this chart which to my eye would put it at a cool $1 million per bitcoin in ~ 6 years - say 2024! Unless the whole thing crashes and burns of course. But honestly I can't see that happening with increasing use and ownership of bitcoin worldwide, and with a team of 200 top developers working on stellar improvements so it's ready for worldwide adoption rates of 5-10% up from the 0.5-1% of us who own it now! What do others think bitcoins long term growth rate will be, or not be? -And what are your price predictions for 2024 looking at the chart? And hey anyone buying at $6.9K? They say 'don't try to catch a falling knife' so I'm waiting and watching. [link] [comments]  |
| What’s your bottom price prediction and time frame? Posted: 31 Mar 2018 04:17 PM PDT |
| Coinfloor increases GBP withdrawal minimums 666 times Posted: 31 Mar 2018 01:18 PM PDT ...that is, from 15 to 10000. Users with balances under 10K have 7 days to withdraw everything: https://coinvigilance.com/coinfloor-to-make-fiat-withdrawal-minimum-666-times-higher/ [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 01 Apr 2018 10:01 AM PDT |
| Glitchfinex: Anyone else having had problems during the short squeeze? Posted: 01 Apr 2018 09:55 AM PDT |
| Market Psychology And Price Action - An Analysis and Projection Posted: 01 Apr 2018 08:56 AM PDT Part 1: Market Price Evolution Mechanisms Part 2: Future Bitcoin Price Part 3: Market Psychology First of all, we know that like for Gold, also for Bitcoin, by far the biggest part of the market price is due to speculation. People may (and do) argue if it amounts to 90%, 99%, 99.9% or even more, but this is not so important here. For the sake of simplicity and illustration, I will assume 99% in the sequel (i.e. just 1% of the Bitcoin price is "fundamental"), without loss of generality - replace it by your own number if you like. As long as your own number is greater than say ca. 90%, the argument works regardless. This means, if people were only buying the respective commodity (i.e. Gold or Bitcoin) for the sake of its actual use (which both of them undoubtedly have), the price would be much lower. Only Gold smiths or companies manufacturing electronic or medical components would buy gold, and the world production could easily keep up with this demand. Gold price would be pretty low. Likewise, only people who want to do real transactions would buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin would "flow" and circulate instead of sitting unused in digital vaults, and hence relatively few bitcoins would be enough to generate a huge turnover in actual trade activities, reaching multiple times its actual market value within a few days. Each of you reading this, if you do not believe me, shall ask yourself: "How much bitcoin (a) do I own today as a matter of fact, and how much bitcoin (b) would I own if only for the purpose of actual use (be it actual transaction of value to buy goods or services, or proof-of-existence transactions to secure the copy-rights of your song, or alike)?" Note that "hodling" (= hoarding, i.e. keeping Bitcoin for a longer time) is forbidden in this scenario by definition, as holding is a speculation activity that is ruled out for this thought experiment. So knowing this, we also know that positive evolutions in the Bitcoin ecosystem, as we do see them right now happening with Lightning, sidechains etc., only have a direct impact on the fundamental fraction of Bitcoin's price (which we assume here to be 1% of Bitcoin's price). So with all other factors unchanged, a bitcoin worth $10,000 (of which $100 is the "fundamental" part) would become worth $10,050 due to Bitcoin's fundamentals increasing by a respectable 50% (from $100 to $150). Clearly, this is just a drop in the ocean. If Bitcoin is in decay for its speculative part (the $9,900 of the $10,000), THIS decay will almost solely determine Bitcoin's actual market price. This is exactly the situation we are in right now! Although Bitcoin's fundamentals improve, market price drops. The "speculative price premium" is decreasing, and this easily more than offsets the increase of the fundamental fraction of the Bitcoin price. We'll differentiate between "sustainable" and "instable" speculative price premium further below. Note that this is not new. It happened for example throughout the years 2014/2015 - fundamentals were improving (codebase, eco-system), yet price was falling, because the previous speculative bubble was just so much too high. So how will this play out in the future? Short answer: "Hard to say." Of course, above thought experiment which assumed zero speculation in the Bitcoin price is fully theoretical. Factually, the speculation component will always be by far the biggest part in Bitcoin's price. So the question about what direction the Bitcoin price will take in the future is practically equivalent to the question what direction the speculative part in the Bitcoin price will take! So we need to know what influences its speculative part. And clearly, there are short-term and long-term drivers! Short-term drivers can (and do) have a huge impact on the Bitcoin price, and this creates the bubbles we have seen so often. If the overall mood is "pro-crypto" and "pro-Bitcoin", people buy, often without deeper understanding. The result is money flowing into all kinds of ICO tokens with absolutely zero fundamental value or pure scam schemes like BitConnect. If things like this happen, it is clear that market psychology is in "bubble mode". As the name says, short-term drivers are instable which is the opposite of "sustainable". After a while people see that the fundamental values do not justify the market valuation, people start selling, and prices crash. Long-term drivers are a pre-condition for generating a sustained speculative price premium (<-- read this sentence again!). E.g. take Gold: Gold has undoubtedly long-term fundamentals that do not go away ("inner value, industrial and jewellery usage"), and this caused a speculative price premium on the Gold price that was relatively stable for decades. If Gold had lacked these fundamentals, the bubble would have completely burst (not just deflated) long ago and(!) never come back. Similar for Bitcoin: Bitcoin does have long-term fundamentals, and only because of this it is possible that people get interested in it in the first place and give it a speculative price premium that sustains for a longer time. Only for this reason Bitcoin was able to increase in price more or less steadily for almost a decade now (see long-term log price chart). A very capable and committed development team and an ever-growing eco-system of companies, universities, startups, individuals and reputable names [neglecting the bad names that can never be avoided] is carrying it further. If Bitcoin were a scam without any fundamentals, the fraud would have been uncovered at some point, the first bubble would have popped, and it would have never recovered. Like BitConnect. Or like many failed ICOs we'll see in the future. So the fundamental inner value is exactly this - a fundament, that is able to carry a sustained(!) speculative price premium on top of itself. On top of this stable price premium we see the natural oscillations of instable price premium, carried by the same people that fall for scams and cannot differentiate good from bad. Symptomatically in the current situation, we can see for example like all the negative news on ICOs are interpreted as negative news for Bitcoin by media and traders. However, fundamentally(!), there is no reason to do so! On the contrary! Bitcoin and ICOs have nothing in common fundamentally (except a piece of the technology), and fundamentally every market action to "clamp down" [sorry for re-using this wording] on ICOs should be seen as a welcome step in giving more credibility to Bitcoin by separating it from its false friends that give Bitcoin a bad name, as Bitcoin is "the real thing" that differentiates itself from those ICOs. But markets and media are not yet able to understand this difference and start avoiding both ICOs and Bitcoin altogether. So as a result, the "instable price premium" that has formed during this hype, will bring Bitcoin back to lower values. If Bitcoin continues to improve its fundamental base (as it currently looks like it does), at some point the decay of instable price premium will come to a stop and get compensated by the growing amount of stable price premium as a result from the knowledge about solid fundamentals. That is where we'll see the bottom of the current correction. Where will the bottom be, and when? I think the current correction is yet under way and far from completed. Also market psychology points in this direction. There is a say in trading according to which the bottom is reached when the mood is negative and almost all traders expect further losses and lost hope. In such a situation, we can be quite sure that the speculative price premium over its fundamental base is at its minimum. If (and only if!) the fundamental base is not damaged, it is only a question of time until the speculative price premium gets back to a healthy long-term sustainable level. And this movement can then possibly spark another bubble of exaggeration. Now many traders are wise enough to KNOW these market mechanics and vocally refer to it, e.g. here on Reddit, in their expectations that "WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM" because everyone is allegedly so negative. I am very sceptical! The very fact that traders express their opinions like this is a strong indicator to me that in fact we have NOT YET reached the bottom. I'd say: These traders whistle wishfully in the woods. By their very own behaviour they disclose their optimism, which means they did not understand what a true correction really needs. Consequently, I expect much heavier corrections to come, and they can span over a long time. I would not be surprised to see sub $2,000 levels again, this year or the next, and all this with a steadily improving situation on the fundamentals (LN, sidechains, schnorr, etc.). These fundamentals (contributing to the "1%" of price) alone cannot bring the price up (but are needed to bring price up at a later time). What it needs is that traders see theses fundamentals and find a reason to invest again. Only this increases the speculative premium, and only this can increase the price. In summary, to give a rough idea, here is my very risky price prediction, take it with a grain of salt, because price prediction is actually not possible:
All this assumes continuous improvement on Bitcoin's fundamentals in terms of protocol and eco-system development. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Mar 2018 01:35 PM PDT Today, Saturday, 31 March, Coinfloor has sent out a mail informing that as from Monday 2 April, the minimum Fiat withdrawal will increase from GBP 15 to GBP 10000. Is this a hoax? A sick April 1 joke? There are public holidays in England and Poland until Tuesday 3 April, so not a single person will be able to withdraw Fiat before this deadline. Has Coinfloor gone completely mad? When they increased the minimum Fiat deposits from GBP 1000 to GBP 2500 last year, about 30 days' notice was given. [link] [comments]  |
| Questions about arbing LakeBTC Posted: 31 Mar 2018 02:26 PM PDT Hello everyone. I'm looking into arbing between LakeBTC & GDAX. GDAX is squeeky clean for me and ready to go, but I know next to nothing about LakeBTC and haven't even begun to use it. Anyone have info on: USD Withdrawal Limits/Times/Fees BTC/ETH/LTC Deposit Limits/Times/Fees There is some massive market inefficiency that I'm ready to take advantage of here, so any relevant information would be extremely helpful. Thanks - Tony [link] [comments]  |
| Exchanges are designed for 1 thing - to steal your money Posted: 01 Apr 2018 02:52 AM PDT 90% of volume on exchanges are fake. They have a series of levers and pulleys in place to make you lose your money. If there is someone here that successfully profited and withdrew in huge amounts from exchanges please chime in. They are operating as swap bucket shops. There is a reason why Binance can't obtain a license from Japan. And in the end, they will fake a hack. [link] [comments]  |
| BTCC Organizing First-Ever March for Crypto to Make Litecoin the Official Global Currency Posted: 31 Mar 2018 05:13 PM PDT Enough is enough! After countless assaults on cryptocurrency by bumbling bureaucrats and parochial politicians, BTCC is rallying the community to stand up and fight for crypto. BTCC will hold the first-ever global March for Crypto at 4:01 AM (EST) on April 1st, 2018, at legislative buildings worldwide to demand that governments: Start taxing fiat transactions. Stop taxing crypto trades. Make litecoin the official currency of the U.S. More details: https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/980082494769737728 [link] [comments]  |
| Shorting literally is the new paradigm now Posted: 31 Mar 2018 03:51 PM PDT I'm going to spread this on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube everything everywhere. Everywhere and everyone, Short short short short short short!!!!! Short to -$0 !!! Until not even 1 penny is left and then the BTC ceo will owe me money :) Did you not hear that everyone is shorting now? Omg like shorting is brilliant! BTC will ofc go down forever. You didn't think that it would stop going down did you? Didn't you hear? $5k by end of minute, $4k by end of hour, $1k end of day, and triple digits back to sub $100 end of week!! Shorting is the best way to success!! I'm writing a book on shorting. Shorters, bears and bitmex foreverrrrrr and everrrrre!!! <3 xoxoxoxoxoxox hey guys do you like shorting? Because I like LOVE shorting! Omg I love shorting so much! I love talking about shorting the market and how much of a genius I am for posting brilliant ideas about being a silly bear and shorting hehe! I love it how shorting is backed by technology too. Shorting is a new paradigm! I'll short forever and everrrr ;) Ive been shorting BTC this whole time. I've been teaching others and I've gotten my neighbors and coworkers into shorting the market and we are all making a lot of money together shorting BTC and Ethereum. I'm really popular now among my friends because I'm making so much money from shorting the market, a lot of them are making accounts in bitmex now because of me. I can't wait for this bear market to continue for the next 5 years until I have enough money from shorting to buy a house and hopefully a nice car. Shorting is the best guaranteed way to make money in the longterm [link] [comments]  |
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