[Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 03, 2018 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 03, 2018
- The Last Ones Standing: Reflections on a Changing Market
- This is Bitcoin on Hopium (Price Analysis)
- Shorting BTC in Europe?
- how to back up Google authenticator with no screen on phone
- Price Action Alert: Pivotal Decisions Pending
- buy-bitcoin: Buy BTC on GDAX from the command line (aka weekly buys with cron)
- IRS 1031 change regarding like-kind exchanges not in effect until 2018? [x-post /r/bitcoin]
- BREAKING: Notice for Kraken clients funding through Japan: new funding instructions coming on March 21
- Just helped a friend a few days ago but got terminated from my job just now... in need of some support.
- Bitcoin Market vs Alts Help
| [Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 03, 2018 Posted: 02 Mar 2018 08:06 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
Thread guidelines:
Other ways to interact:
[link] [comments]  |
| The Last Ones Standing: Reflections on a Changing Market Posted: 02 Mar 2018 04:14 PM PST The crypto-trading scene is in a fascinating state of flux at the moment. If the number of views and comments on the sub's daily market thread are in any way indicative of the level of market interest and participation (which I believe is a safe bet), then there's been a hell of a lot of speculation going on over this past year. It reminds me of what we saw in the dawn of the online-trading era, during the dot com boom. It was in the mid to late 90's that the world saw the birth of modern "day trading". An intense, ultimately short-lived profession. Hoards of uncouth (by traditional finance standards) speculators arrived at the market with their laptops and eTrade accounts fired-up, ready to try their luck at this potentially lucrative career. Most of these individuals were young, in or just out of college; from the middle class, and had little to no prior market experience. They learned on the job and from their peers. Similar to today, the trajectory of the times meant that it was possible to make money. They simply had to buy, anything; at almost any time and then just ride the waves of volatility generated by the collective splashing of the thousands upon thousands of other entrants who, like themselves, had jumped headlong into a vast and invisible ocean of economic activity. The situational awareness and rapid execution capabilities afforded them by the new portable computers, desktop workstations, multiple monitors, all dialed into the nascent Internet via 56k baud modems — often granted the traders a slight edge over traditional investors. Acquiring breaking-news from a BBS chatroom, or web forum, and then quickly pressing a button was certainly much quicker than waiting for the news to appear in tomorrow's WSJ and then phoning a broker. The party didn't last long. In the aftermath of the market crash, a lot of people were wiped-out in a bad way and the normally volatile ocean over time became still. Below the surface however, all was not still. Though unseen by most, a strange kind of coup fomenting. The market had become dominated by an even newer group, with extraordinarily sophisticated ways and means. Turns out Wall Street has a lot of resources. Those resources were mobilized on a grand scale, constructing infrastructure, and used for the wholesale importation of a crew of scientists. There came theoretical physicists from Germany, statistics PhD's from Paris, risk managers from India, and dour-faced C++ wizards from St Petersburg. Together they designed and built new trading systems that won by playing a different, far more objective game. The result of all of this was that the leagues of pioneering day traders gradually left the market. The fun was over. One by one, the day traders got burnt out, or simply bled money until they went broke. A rare few stayed behind and made their way in the new business of algorithmic or high-frequency trading, but the majority simply drove their ships onto the beach, climbed out, and went onto other ventures. After the SEC implemented the Pattern Day Trader Rule (PDT), the barriers to entry became too high for normal folk. The flurry of activity surrounding the 2008 financial crisis spurred a brief revival, but in the end, the profession died out. 20 years later, those times have come again. A new Pacific Ocean has been discovered. Many of the pioneers of this new front were likely still children the last time this happened. The gig will be fun for a time, because it's still easy. I'd caution to be mindful that the reason it's easy is because for now, people are still competing on a somewhat level playing field. This is going to change. First will come the vendors. The game will begin to feel more difficult, but it will be hard to pinpoint exactly why. The spreads will narrow even more, and gradually the little blips of inefficiency, that are currently someone's livelihood, will be arbitraged away. The market will become a perfectly senseless, random sea of noise. Full of statistical correlations and vague glimpses of patterns, too fleeting to take advantage of, and giving one the distinct impression that the market has transformed into a monstrous web of interconnections; whereby something happening in an asset you aren't even following has an effect on the one you're trading. It will become computers reacting to other computers until the world of crypto and the traditional financial markets unintentionally move in perfect, fluid tandem. The things that matter will be less and less news & sentiment that humans can grok, but will become more about mesoscale, micro-structure events, liquidity flows, and trades that happen at the speed of c, too fast to notice. On shorter time frames, the once wild ride will descend into a pit of hellish chop. Seemingly able to dice people up, even if it's in a strong trend. (for a glimpse into the future, go spend a day trying to manually trade E-mini S&P futures)
The human traders that survive the coming transition will primarily belong to the invading barbarian tribes: the traders of Wall Street, London, Chicago, Dubai, Singapore—whose skills have already been honed in previous battles from the pits to the screens. However, there will remain a few of the miscellaneous souls who grew up in the world of crypto, but whose innate disposition tends towards ruthlessness and cunning. Those who Nature endowed with the strange combination of icy nerves, a preternaturally acute mind, and the charming emotional gamut of a Sri Lankan carpet viper. Those traits will all be taxed to their limits.
Some day, years down the road, some of those who have persevered will open their eyes and realize that they have outlasted most of their peers. They will have survived a great upheaval in the world's markets, and in kind, their own lives. Those who remain will have toiled away long enough that they reach Valhalla; finding the elusive success they'd always half-questioned whether or not they would ever know.
They're the last ones standing.
Alright, that's enough storytime for now; smoke break's over - back to the coal mine. ~Cheers [link] [comments]  |
| This is Bitcoin on Hopium (Price Analysis) Posted: 02 Mar 2018 10:10 PM PST Background analysis from 4 days ago TL;DR: I expect $12k around March 6, when the daily cloud will kumo twist. This presents an opportunity for trend reversal to the upside. On the 4 hour timeframe, we've got A Tale of Two Falling Wedges playing out. I personally don't use pattern price targets much, but nonetheless, an approximate price target for the larger falling wedge would be ~$12.5k to ~$13.5k, as determined by the vertical height of the breakout from $9k to $11.8k and the 1.618 fib level from that breakout. On the 12h, we seem to be at the neckline for the iHS (log scale). The volume profile is a bit messy, but hopefully we can break through with volume. Again, I don't give much weight to price targets, but an approximate target would be ~$15k to ~$17k. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 12h is also of note. I use the doubled crypto settings (20/60/120/30). The edge-to-edge trade I mentioned in my background analysis comment is continuing to play out, with a price target of ~$11.6k to ~$12.5k. The daily is where I've been the most focused on. A great benefit of trading on the daily is that you can go on with your life and focus on large-scale trends 😎(who am I kidding--I'm glued to the charts and the discussion threads 24/7. Please send help. 😞) Again, here I use the Ichimoku Cloud with the doubled crypto settings. Right now, price is below the cloud, the future cloud is bearish, and the TK line is below the KJ line. We're above the TK line, but have overhead KJ resistance coming up at $11.6k. Since we're below the cloud, we have that as resistance as well--the last time price hit cloud resistance at ~$11.8k we were decisively rejected. Overall, the cloud is bearish on the daily. However, the upcoming kumo twist on ~March 6 is imho the best chance for recovery in the near future. The kumo twist is period of low resistance and can act as a "magnet" for price movement. On the weekly, the trend still seems to be bullish; price is above the EMA50 and EMA200, price is above the cloud, the TK line is above the KJ line (although it's heading for a negative cross), and the future cloud is bullish. Price is currently at the weekly kijun resistance. Hopefully we can close above it! Here, I'm using the singled crypto settings (10/30/60/30) for faster signals on this high timeframe. Moving on to the monthly, February has closed as a doji, or, as I like to call it, a Jesus Christ Cross ✝️. Pray that the Jesus Christ Cross will deliver us and save us from our sins. Finally, here's a pitchfork with anchor points in Jan 2017, June 2017, and July 2017: https://i.imgur.com/q9hBB0c.png It predicts a price of ~$25k-$35k in July. I don't know how effective the pitchfork is, but I like it because it tells me that I will make money and because it is colorful. Interestingly, the iHS, 12h e2e, pitchfork mean, and daily twist all seem to line up. So, I present to you: The Ultimate Chart on Hopium My general strategy these past few days has more or less been "trade less, make more" to avoid getting caught up in the chop. Overall, I'm leaning (cautiously) bullish. Of course, this is all just my personal opinion and is not advice. Trade responsibly! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2018 08:56 AM PST Due to the recent price hike, I am wanting to open a short but cannot find a decent exchange to do so other than kraken, which from what I have read would be best to avoid. Any recommendations for btc/eur exchanges to short on or alternate methods through tether maybe?? [link] [comments]  |
| how to back up Google authenticator with no screen on phone Posted: 03 Mar 2018 02:16 AM PST Hej guys! my phone is working, but the screen is not , I by heart switched on internet and my personal hotspot, so I have connection on my pc IS THERE a way to backup my google authenticator via pc? Ty Edit: Ok, so I just need to find that 16 digit code and I could transfer or turn on 2fa on my new phone. [link] [comments]  |
| Price Action Alert: Pivotal Decisions Pending Posted: 02 Mar 2018 11:38 PM PST Just did a full TA breakdown of what I'm seeing in current prices. Didn't want to post in the main sub but thought you guys may get some mileage from it. There were a lot of charts and not a great way to include them here so I left a link at the bottom of the post. This is the full text of that analysis though. Hope it helps. Price Action Alert: Pivotal Decisions Pending Bitcoin Markets showing signs of life. Heads up, this could be a mover. Patterns saying upside but have bears really flatlined? Only one way to find out. EMAs
Still showing big divergence on the 1D 100/200 EMAs. Going to take a lot more than that to see these cross. Building support even by this measure. Expect a test of the 02/20 high and support at the 1D 100 EMA to confirm upside continuation.
Pushing for the first 4H golden cross since the ATH. When I looked back on these back in BTFD (Vol 2), about ~16% led to a false signal and do not develop into a trend. The confirmed 4H golden crosses, however, did result in massive upside opportunities. Even in consideration of the 16% fakeouts, this pattern expectancy has paid well over time. Even on conservative expectations, percentage moves up from here could be massive in dollar terms.
Looking to 1H EMAs for leading indicators on the 4H, we see more potential reversal confirmation. The 1H has a lot more noise on EMA expectancy. You can see we've had recent 1H crosses that looked more like fakeouts than breakouts. For example, the January 1H golden cross didn't stick and turned right back into extended down. The first February golden cross held longer but again didn't stick before crossing down. Interestingly though, the last death cross also failed to stick and EMAs have now crossed back above. Very interesting to note this occurring right in advance of the 4H cross. 1H saying all systems go on the 4H golden. Will find out short term if these crosses gets confirmed, and if so, could be bigtime upside coming up. Channels
You can see on both the daily and weekly scale, consecutive closes above Dec channel resistance and the ATH bearish inflection. Interesting to see price breakout then test support at resistance. We rode it down for a good week plus but did not break back down. Putting in the first extended period above these descending patterns now. Again, if we print a higher high above $11,788, that could be all she wrote on the Dec channel and inflection.
June channels also hitting pivotal territory. Support bang on the lows, and now consolidating the upper band resistance of the higher June channel. Failed to hold extended dailies above there last time but only made it halfback before pushing back up to resistance. If we start closing dailies above here again, look out.
Look at the 1D closing bars back inside the Aug channel. Aug support crossing through Jun channel resistance for the first time now. Going to get a good indication short term on which channel price wants to trade. Right now it's Aug channel. Will it hold? Fibs Continue to hold ridiculous range on the fib scale. Very insightful chart here to see where the daily bars have closed in these ranges. Breaking out from 4 different fibs packed into a tight range. Back into space on the Mar 2017 fibs. Big test on the Jul 361% in progress now. If that breaks, we'll be back up to halfback on the ATH pump and pushing 423% on the Jul fibs. Fib Pivot Points Interesting patterns developing here. You can see monthly range tightening and support building. Since the ATH, we only traded above the monthly pivot for a couple weeks in early January. March just opened and continues to close positive pivot range for the first time since. With the 4H EMAs about to turn golden, will we finally break the 1M R1 for the first time in 2018? Well surprise, surprise, look how the 1Y P is stacked right on top. Going to find out on both at the same time. Haven't closed many candles above the 1Y P since breaking below. Hugely important monthly and annual level to keep an eye on. We wait…
By measures observed, Bitcoin markets appear on the precipice of a massive fiat beatdown. In terms of 2018 price trends, this looks extreme. If this is a trap, prices are going to discover supply any time now. If not, it's no supply or strong demand, either way – prices going up. Huge decisions looming in background trends. Is the next wave of parabolic markup already upon us? When you look at potential percentage USD gains from here, it's silly. When it all lines up this good, we have to temper expectations. When that next ATH run does come, it's going to be one to behold. Are we really on the verge or is this perfect pattern fake out ready to dump? Either way, biggest hands in the game calling in as we speak. About to see what's what in Bitcoin markets. Price action alert. Imminent decisions on intersecting trends short term.
[link] [comments]  |
| buy-bitcoin: Buy BTC on GDAX from the command line (aka weekly buys with cron) Posted: 02 Mar 2018 03:30 PM PST buy-bitcoin: A simple command line utility to buy bitcoin. This spawned out of a desire to stop paying Coinbase' fees for a weekly buy I had running, instead opting to just run the same market buy on GDAX directly. Turned out to be pretty simple--most of the code is for user friendliness and (semi-)proper secrets management. After setting up the configuration file, it's pretty easy to use: simply run As always, the usual disclaimers apply. Verify the code yourself (or have someone you trust verify it). Don't install new versions without repeating the verification process. Protect your API credentials with proper permissions, etc. Furthermore, I take no responsibility for scripts that use this that go off the rails and execute hundreds of buys in a second... Don't do what I did and develop against the live API :) [link] [comments]  |
| IRS 1031 change regarding like-kind exchanges not in effect until 2018? [x-post /r/bitcoin] Posted: 03 Mar 2018 12:54 AM PST IRS Slams the Door on Like-Kind Cryptocurrency Swaps GOP Tax Bill to Charge Capital Gains on Cryptocurrency Income PDF-discussed on pg.192 of GOP tax bill Is anyone else confused as much as I am about this? If this recent change doesn't come into effect until the 2018 tax year, then it's completely reasonable to assume that it's permissible to report like-kind exchanges on our 2017 tax reports, correct? The reason I'm hesitant is because some people have been posting not to, do they know something the rest of us don't? [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Mar 2018 01:32 PM PST If you use our bank partner in Japan to fund your Kraken account for EUR, GBP, JPY or USD, please read this important notice. If you instead use one of our many other funding options, such as EUR SEPA payments (available in all SEPA-zone countries) or domestic USD transfers (available in most US states), or CAD (in Canada), you can safely disregard this notice. If you use our bank partner in Japan to fund your Kraken account with anything but CAD, your funding instructions will be changing soon - please check your account on March 21 for the new funding instructions. Deposits sent using the old instructions must arrive no later than 11:59 pm on March 20 Japan time (deposits arriving after this time will be returned). The new instructions will appear in your account on March 21 and will include new bank account details for sending deposits - please confirm that the bank account details have changed before sending new deposits on or after March 21. Why the change? Currently one of our banking partners in Japan services clients who reside both inside and outside Japan. Due to the strain placed on the bank by our recent exponential growth, this banking partner needs to narrow the scope of supported clients to maintain good quality of service. As of March 21 this banking partner will only service residents of Japan. Japan residents will send deposits to a different account at the same bank. Clients outside Japan will use a new bank. The new bank integration is still being finalized and this process may not be completed by March 21. Clients residing outside Japan who fund their accounts through Japan should be aware of a possible interruption in service starting March 21 (more on this below). Does this mean one of Kraken's bank accounts is being closed? No bank accounts are being closed. If you previously received an email from us talking about bank accounts closing, please disregard it since the language is inaccurate and misleading. If you reside in Japan and fund through our Japan bank partner • Your service will continue without interruption • Make sure any deposits using the old instructions arrive no later than 11:59 pm on March 20 Japan time • Make sure you start using the new deposit instructions that will be made available in your account on March 21 • You can continue to fund your account with JPY (domestic transfers) • You can continue to fund your account with USD, EUR, or GBP (international SWIFT transfers) If you reside outside Japan and fund through our Japan bank partner with anything but CAD • We are working on a replacement option for you so that you can continue to fund your account with JPY, USD, EUR and GBP transfers after March 20 • The replacement integration is not finalized yet, meaning that there could be an interruption in service before the replacement option is ready • You can continue to make deposits through our Japan bank partner until 11:59 pm on March 20 Japan time • You can continue to withdraw through our Japan bank partner until 12:00 pm on March 27 Japan time • If the replacement integration is not ready by March 21, we will contact you with another announcement, and you will have the option to withdraw your funds until 12:00 pm on March 27 Japan time if you are concerned about the possible interruption in service We want to emphasize again that no bank accounts are being closed. The story here is only about one of our many banking partners needing to narrow the scope of clients they serve to maintain good quality of service. The majority of Kraken clients, who use one of our many other funding options, are entirely unaffected by this change. We currently have a team devoted to cultivating new bank partnerships and expect to start seeing the fruits of this effort soon with new bank funding options coming online. For our clients residing outside Japan who have been using our bank partner in Japan, we expect to announce a replacement option for you soon, and will let you know if there will be any interruption in service. The Kraken Team [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Mar 2018 09:46 AM PST I'll try to summarize everything in an easy to read format for the benefit of everyone. Thank you in advance for reading. -The Summary- I'm a 35 Year old expatriate worker who just got terminated from my job recently due to the economic situation in the country I am working at. I have a wife and we are expecting a child soon, hopefully. -What happened- I was someone who thought that I had everything under control, had very little credit and had some saved for a rainy day. Last year though, there are lots of decisions made by the government in the country I'm working at that favored against Expatriates workers very badly. This lead me to use my credit card in order to balance things out. Not to mention the price of petrol multiplying by nearly 3 times, I had to make ends meet somehow. However, everything was still under control and this is still okay. A few weeks ago, a friend of mine from college got cancer and he needed help. Knowing that I was still in a faily good standing, I sent him most of what I have saved up in order to help for his treatment. I believe everything in life has a purpose and I believe that the purpose of the money I saved was for my friend. What I did not know is that I'm going to be terminated from my job. I'm a fairly hard worker, going to office 1~2 hours before our scheduled time and finishing late just to finish all my tasks. Suffice to say, I really did not expect this. It was due to the fact that my profession was one of the few that was decided that no more expatriates can hold. -A cry for help- This is only one of the few times that I'm going to ask all you anonymous out there for help. I have no where else to run to and I don't know how to feed my family and pay for my rent at this rate... I always believed that I will be the one helping people but the opposite is happening right now. You might think that I'm pretty calm when you're reading this but believe me, I really don't know what to do right now. Any help sent will be a blessing to me and my family and a promise to pay it forward somehow later on when I can... Thank you all in advance for the help and support. BTC Address 1Dt1UYAaDdBHhgWiJBbENgrRNv9qgi2jWg [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 02 Mar 2018 01:07 PM PST Hey guys so I am a bit confused and need some clarity on something. So when we are in a BTC market, why do people say alts are losing value even though their USD value is going up? Is it because you would be better off in BTC or you are actually losing money? Some clarity would help, thanks. [link] [comments]  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Sharing of ideas, tips, and strategies for increasing your Bitcoin trading profits. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment