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    [Daily Discussion] Friday, February 02, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    February 02, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Friday, February 02, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Friday, February 02, 2018

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 08:06 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

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    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    You heard it here first: The correction is over

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 06:20 AM PST

    As I managed to buy all of the bigger corrections since May 2017, and always just 10%-15% above the bottom, I thought I would put together a little "bottom-guide" (sounds hot) for you.

    The following are the indicators that a bottom is in. Keep them in mind for the next time:

    1. Price: All the coins double-digit in the red. If you know a bit about technical targets, that knowledge is helpful as well. In the current correction, the savvy traders knew that $8,000 was the target. We got around $7,600 in the end.

    2. Strong Bounce: You want to look for an ultimate sharp fall that washes out the last week hands; and then an immediate strong rebound. The first part was a bit atypical this time, as we didn't get that steep last part of the fall; maybe because the bears were completely exhausted (all the weak hands washed out already). We saw the steep initial rise though from $7,600 to $8,400 or so. You want to look for something like a 10% rise there, and this is exactly what we got.

    3. Sentiment: Read the posts on reddit, and also on bitcointalk, and remember the overall feeling: This is what a bottom looks like. Many desperate people, many people projecting the current trends (downside) into the future, which the human mind always tends to do. And even the experienced people sound a bit down; they are not thinking about selling, but they are getting ready to wait for a long time till it goes up again. Remember this sentiment and recognize it next time around!

    4. Volume and shorts: Two more important indicators, although I haven't been watching them lately. Look for high volumes at the turning points, and look for way more futures shorts than longs. That means the market has become very pessimistic - which is always a bullish sign.

    With a bit of experience, it becomes quite obvious when the bottom is in. Look at these signs, and you can profit from buying low.

    PS: Obviously, this is just my personal opinion. Make up your own mind, nobody has a crystal ball.

    submitted by /u/DrBitgood
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    Psychology of Hodling

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 04:38 AM PST

    Ladies and Gents, there are few Bitcoin things that suck as much as watching helplessly as your hodlings drop in value as valued in your national currency. I've seen several significant retracements over the past 3.5 years, and when I first bought in the Fall of 2014 I spent almost a year underwater.

    Some of the retracements have happened while I was underwater, and others while I've been in the black. All of them had some common psychological effects on me and I wanted to share some lessons learned.

    1) Crypto is risky. Have a plan A for taking care of your short, medium, and long term financial / life goals that don't include Bitcoin going to $1,000,000+ per coin. Anything you invest in this space, you should at least ask "am I ok if this goes to zero?" It won't go to zero, but ask the question; it'll steel your nerves.

    2) It does help to be up several thousand percent when a correction happens, but not as much as you'd think. If your net worth is largely in crypto, watching it go down is stressful, regardless of if you're up a lot of money.

    3) Selling a portion of your hodlings at key price points has helped me mitigate the effect of Bitcoin's volatility when its heading down. Once you sell for your initial fiat investment (or a little more) it gets a lot easier to put your crypto in a mental box and say "anything this is worth is just icing on the cake. I'm lucky to have gotten in this space early." It's still early for Bitcoin.

    4) You'll second guess your decision to hodl often. The best way to mitigate this is have a portion you "never" would sell in cold storage. Choose your method, but ensure it's secure.

    5) Constantly watching the price is exhausting. If you're in for the long game, set a couple price alarms and walk away. Check the news and price every now and then, but don't overdo it. For me, I check about once a week and try to read up on the major things going on.

    6) Money matters, but it's not everything. Put the best way I've ever heard it, "money won't buy you happiness, but a lack of money will probably make you miserable." Keep your perspective and pursue your goals outside the joy of winning big by scoring big on Bitcoin speculation. Hopefully you're not 100% exposes to Bitcoin.

    7) If you're a Bitcoin believer, take the time to learn what you can about it and the rest of the Crypto universe. Do some research, have a critical eye, learn some technical skills, or figure out how to contribute. It may not work out, but you'll gain some knowledge in the process, stay busy, and may even contribute to the community.

    Hope you find this helpful. Good luck out there. Try and keep your perspective.

    submitted by /u/Osowp95
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    Most Bitcoin-friendly countries

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 01:19 AM PST

    A year ago, most countries simply ignore the existence of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. But in mid-2017 by "Buy Bitcoins" requests Google went on millions, and the capitalization of digital cash exceeded the cost of many well-known brands, and to not notice about cryptocurrency became difficult.

    Therefore, from July to November 2017, the largest country in the world have made statements in which the face of the planet announced their relationship to cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

    As it turned out, most of the world announced a positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies. But no uniform regulations, as there is no universally accepted definition of digital money and their legal status. Today, each of the countries where cryptocurrency not prohibited, addresses this issue in its own way.

    Japan

    Land of the rising sun first and only recognized the Bitcoin full tender. They developed ATMs network and have the ability to pay for various services with Bitcoins. Today in Japan, accept Bitcoin network of electronics stores Bic Camera, Marui department stores and a number of hotels - for example, Comics & Capsule Hotel Comicap.

    According to the publication Nikkei projected 2020 turnover of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency in Japan will reach trillions of yen. However, the head of the Department of payment and settlement systems, the Bank of Japan Hiromi Yamaoka believes that in the near future in Japan Bitcoins not supersede Fiat, because "it too would change the banking system."

    Malta

    The Government of the Republic strongly supports cryptocurrency. Prime Minister Joseph Muscat is known for his statement made at the CEPS Ideas Lab Forum in Brussels: "Europe can become a Bitcoin-continent, and Malta - it is Silicon Valley ". Now Malta developing holistic blockchain strategy that will affect cryptocurrency; the first version of the document was submitted for consideration and approved in April 2017. The country also plans to legalize gambling cryptocurrency.

    Slovenia

    Slovenia is ready to compete For the title of "Europe's Silicon Valley". The country participates in European blockchain and cryptocurrency projects and also develops its own strategy. Today, Slovenia has the legal status for Bitcoin.

    Slovenia - the country with the strongest civil support of Bitcoin in the world: it operates a public organization Bitcoin Association, headed crypto enthusiast Jure Pirc. The Company aims to popularize and promote Bitcoin crypto initiatives at the state level.

    Cyprus

    Island in the Mediterranean Sea, famous for its spas, also enthusiastically accepted cryptocurrency. It happened back in 2013, when the debt crisis happened: Bitcoin in Cyprus became an alternative to bank deposits. Therefore, the digital gold in the country is in high demand. There are numerous crypto traders and blockchain start-ups, and existing projects to pay for various services.

    The legal basis for cryptocurrencies in Cyprus is in development. In particular, the directive has been published recently for companies that sell stock exchange assets using cryptocurrency.

    Switzerland

    Switzerland, which is proud of its well-functioning financial system and robust banks, making bold steps towards cryptocurrencies. So, one of the Swiss banks, Falcon Private Bank, the world's first started offering the entire range of financial services in cryptocurrency. A Swiss city of Zug has received the glory of Crypto Silicon Valley: its liberal legislation for blockchain attracts many companies.

    In Zug cryptocurrencies are commonly used as a means of payment due to the application developed by Bitcoin Suisse AG; it can be used even to pay utility bills. There is also a system for citizens verification through blockchain. Also, there is Crypto Valley Association - an organization to support and promote blockchain startups.

    At the same time in Switzerland as long as there is no common legislation against Bitcoin, so every canton (county) decides its own way.

    Conclusion:

    So, the most blockchain-friendly country in Europe - with the exception of Japan, which, as always, chose his own path. It is therefore right that Europe really soon become the center of blockchain industry, and one of that countries will be a hub of new technologies. In the near future we are waiting for countries will publish their crypto strategy and publish the laws about Blockchain technology.

    Crypto market young and not properly regulated, today investors need to take special care to protect themselves from high risks. However, in general crypto industry is growing, there are services and tools for market regulation and protection from fraud. For example, prepared to launch the Safinus platform which implements mechanisms to protect novice investors and increase profits for experienced traders and crypto funds.

    Step by step blockchain ecosystem will create the immune system against unscrupulous community members. Will not only improve the market, but also flow of investments will be distributed in favor of really useful projects for blockchain, and investors will be able to earn more and more secure and profit.

    submitted by /u/CryptoTrue
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    Manipulating the BTC Price? The CFTC can now bend you over!

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 02:41 AM PST

    A few of us posted last year, that the BTC futures rollout on CME and CBOE would result in a sharp decline in BTC in January, and spread fear in the markets, as it makes it easier for groups of futures participants to manipulate the BTC price - particularly making leveraged shorts of BTC easy.

    The CME Chairman said prior to the rollout: "We'll tame Bitcoin"

    It now appears that the (Commodity and Futures Trading Commission) CFTC 'thinks' it has jurisdiction over any manipulation of the physical BTC spot price. This is a regulatory body with a lot of clout! You'd be very courageous to mess with the CFTC.

    From the subpoena letter to Tether - according to this article:

    ...the CFTC "gained oversight over the U.S. bitcoin futures market and access to data that can facilitate the detection and pursuit of bad actors in underlying spot markets."

    This is an important development, as it will make any high net worth individuals or institutions think twice before shorting BTC futures and manipulating the price on the physical exchanges - by successive BTC accumulation, futures short, BTC sell plays.

    This should also mean, that if anyone sees massive descending sell walls, on any exchanges, and they suspect downwards price manipulation, outside of standard organic or event/news driven sentiment, they can now contact the CFTC to start an investigation.

    submitted by /u/urbanStigmata
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    Let's play Call The Bottom (value on Gdax and date) and and come back in a month

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 03:23 AM PST

    I call it at today's 200 Day Moving Average in two days. USD 7910 4 Feb 2018 If someone knows how to do one of those Remind Me things please set it for a month below. Ta.

    submitted by /u/the1000thtime
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    Crypto-Friendly scandinavian Bank

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 04:11 AM PST

    Hello,

    I was wondering if anyone knew any cryptocurrency-friendly scandinavian banks in which I could have a chance to create a corporate account? I've tried practically every bank in Denmark with no luck

    submitted by /u/-AceStar
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    Anyone who thinks this is "hard times" is in for a nasty surprise.

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 04:44 AM PST

    BTC is up HUGE from even just a few months ago.

    I don't think most people understand or want to understand what a true crash is.

    Hell most people here would think 1000 BTC is end of the world!

    submitted by /u/If_I_Was_Dictator
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    Time for a bounce?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 06:54 AM PST

    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29457211#msg29457211

    https://redd.it/7ptsg3

    Time for a bounce? A speculative buy order has been placed as follows...

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)

    OPEN: 8600

    CLOSE: 12058

    STOP: 7960*

    RISK: 7.5%

    REWARD: 40%

    *A hedge, not a stop-loss has been placed at 7690 as there may be a final flush to 7600 area.

    Barring any wave subdivisions, there are now a sufficient count of waves to suggest the first Primary a-wave of the crash is over.

    The a-wave decline from 06-JAN-2018 ought to be retraced by a b-wave bounce retracing up to 38.2% (11510) to 50% (12606) with the average being at 12058.

    Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter:

    "b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."

    Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave models indicative of probable price and structure, not timing as follows:

    https://i.imgur.com/s8eQNai.png

    https://i.imgur.com/3O9Hluy.png

    submitted by /u/12345abcde00001
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    Kraken Margin + Leverage

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 12:50 AM PST

    Sorry if this is a n00b question but I'm having trouble finding the answer - I'm trying to work out in what situations it would be beneficial to use lower leverage when taking a margin position.

    Assuming I've got $1000 in my account and want to take out a short position against ETH also of $1000, I could either do this with a small leverage of say 1:2 which would be a margin of $500 or with a higher leverage of 1:5 and a margin of $200.

    As I understand it, the first option would mean my position would be liquidated if I inccured a loss of ~$500 and my margin level is less than 100% whereas the higher leverage would allow for a loss of ~$800 before my margin level is less than 100% and the position is liquidated.

    Could someone explain in what situation the first option is prefereable, aside from simply minimising your exposure to higher losses.

    submitted by /u/wizzzzzyyyyy
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    The Everyone should hold 1 Bitcoin Principle

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 10:09 AM PST

    If you agree can you help spread the word on other Crypto reddit's

    This is the idea that whatever you invest in in crypto, everyone should hold at least 1 Bitcoin, or aspire to hold 1 Bitcoin.

    Whether you love it or hate it, Bitcoin is the bulwark and poster boy of crypto for the outside world. It's like Jupiter protecting the Earth by sucking up the astroids and comets. If Bitcoin prospers, then Crypto prospers. And we as holders of 1 bitcoin can do our little bit to make it strong.

    submitted by /u/CryptidCollective
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    Be careful with BitMex

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 09:21 AM PST

    So I shorted btc a few hours ago on Mex. Gave me the Kraken-vibe as it kept saying the system was overloaded, try again. I did that, saw the message over and over again til I managed to get in my orders. Come back a few hours later, all of the orders that were supposedly not getting in turned up and I ended up with 2x the position I wanted to AND to the market price back then, after it had risen a couple of hunderd bucks. What the hell?

    submitted by /u/Kristkind
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    gdax keeping us down.

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 08:05 AM PST

    I've been taking a look at cryptowat.ch and looks like all the exchanges are over $9k but only gdax keeping it $8.5k

    Bitfinex has the most realistic price so far, just between all the exchanges with the real price. The rest are just following and gdax is taking it's own path like something is happening with them.

    submitted by /u/Aceionic
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    Short term reversal

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 08:00 AM PST

    chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/kbdZCAaW/

    Not surprising bitcoin bounced off support. It's good to see a reversal candle. (this is a long wick doji, with a push low below and a close above the previous day's close). Obviously the day isn't over so it needs to hold up above $8,455 for the close.

    Now this is a mid day post, volume matters and the close matters. But I'm not convinced this is the bottom yet. Could be, but it needs to get above that green trend line and stay above $8,455. Also would like to see volume die off. A bigger volume bar than the 17th would be negative in my view.

    But as a trade it looks like a bounce is in store. I'd target about $10.5-$11k for a trade.

    submitted by /u/RLWSNOOK
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    How difficult to write API for CEX.IO if I know C,C++ ?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 07:44 AM PST

    I am tired of doing math for fraction of bitcoin I have with calculators and selling/buying for day trade. I am exhausted.!! I haven't sleep for last few weeks and my wife went to her parents house after too much argument (because I was spending too much time with CEX.IO app and calculator). Last but not least, I made some decimal place mistakes and made ~700$ loss.!! So my principal is down to 1300$ now. So, once for all I want to spend few days write an API and want to get back my life and wife. Please suggest me pages/reddit post/any blog where I can find customizable bot (free) or write my own. Thanks in advance for saving my life (and wife).

    submitted by /u/yesilovethis
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    Tidex vs Bibox

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 07:42 AM PST

    Are both of these exchanges safe? Im trying to buy wax but not sure of the best way possible

    submitted by /u/FatmanO
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    Was the January rally faked?

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 07:31 AM PST

    ""This became more and more concerning, because every time the markets went down, you have seen the same thing happen," said Joey Krug, the co-chief investment officer at Pantera Capital, which runs several virtual currency hedge funds. "It could mean that a lot of the rally over December and January might not have been real.""

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

    submitted by /u/jbabrams2
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    Co-relation of btc and gold market kind of obvious...

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 03:45 AM PST

    check 2mo frame in the gold graph, seems to me that gold bugs are rubbing their hands big time...!

    submitted by /u/tpmd911
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    My case for you to dump USD assets and BTFBD

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 05:00 PM PST

    https://i.imgur.com/3KrL0lh.png

    Bitcoin has faded since US Bitcoin Futures were introduced in December. This coincided with the US Fed beginning quantitative tightening, and Trump's Tax plan lifting bond yields, making risky assets less appealing in the US. I believe that trade is almost complete. However, the Bitcoin bull run is not complete. For it is a global phenomenon. And although the Fed has begun quantitative tightening, and the ECB is slowing their asset purchase programs, the Bank of Japan will continue their stimulus policy at 100%. Unlike in the past, when the BTC/USD pair was a majority of the market, today the Yen controls 40-50% of BTC exchange volume. This is why I believe Bitcoin will continue to rise in 2018. So dump your USD assets, and buy the fucking bitcoin dip.

    cheers

    submitted by /u/theinfiniteidea
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    BTC & ETH - the capitulation bottom is in

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 05:34 AM PST

    Positively crazy..in the last 30 mins buying is coming in BTC and ETH... both rebounding back above key support, The volume has been massive on both compared to the low back on 1-17. This feels like capitulation...the big flush.

    For BTC... the lower trendline and 61.8% retracement held and we're back above both.

    For ETH... support at the 1-17 low at 757 held.

    submitted by /u/CryptoAho
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    Kraken withdrawal "Failure" but not credited back to my account!

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 05:03 AM PST

    Still no news on my ticket.

    Ticket #1476168

    I could not make a withdrawal, as it was marked as "failure" despite me not changing any information from the ones that were on the account before. Now I was told that my account is not the good one.

    Why don't you credit back the funds to the account if the withdrawal did not take place? Please don't hold my money hostage.

    What is the issue with the withdrawal? There weren't any issues with my information until today, but now there suddenly is? What?

    /u/jespow /u/kraken-eliah /u/kraken-daniel /u/kraken-colin /u/kraken-pharah

    Come on!

    Transaction ID:

    submitted by /u/smallroofthatcher
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    Theory: while tether<1: market is dropping

    Posted: 02 Feb 2018 04:59 AM PST

    because someone has to sell coins for tether

    submitted by /u/IcyBud
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    Let's test this theory to find the bottom for $BTC

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 11:00 PM PST

    BTC - buy with both hands at 8145 and below...here's why

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 12:25 PM PST

    BTC Chart

    The lower trendline converges with the 61.8% retracement at 8145. This is where we will see a hold & reversal.

    The 61.8% retracement fib has the highest reversal potential of all indicators.

    submitted by /u/CryptoAho
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