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    [Daily Discussion] Friday, January 26, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    January 26, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Friday, January 26, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Friday, January 26, 2018

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 08:06 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Market may be overreacting to CME futures close

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 03:04 AM PST

    https://imgur.com/wO23Fky

    source

    How big is the CME bitcoin trade?

    Not very. As you can see from the chart above the average daily volume for the CME bitcoin futures is about 1500 contracts which is 7500btc ~ $75,000,000.

    Compare this to the larger exchanges like, coinbase, bitfinex, bithumb. Their average daily volume is near 1 billion with spikes as high as 4 billion. They dwarf the CME's bitcoin trade.

    But it is even more significant when we look at the Open Interest on the CME. This is how many contracts that are currently open. Whereas the daily volume often includes contracts that opened then closed 2 hours later, the open interest tells us what is open at the moment.

    For the CME this open interest is ~ $65 million, that's over all their contracts and after a month of trading. This means that the vast majority of the trading the happens on the CME is daytrading (maybe market makers using them for short term hedges).

    So will this affect the market

    In my opinion, NO! In fact in my opinion it doesn't even have enough volume to be able to affect the overall market.

    So how do I explain the fall around the CBOE contract end and the now the current fall around CME contract end? Bitcoin is a highly volatile market and market crashes will happen, it is my opinion that the crash around the CBOE last week was unrelated to the CBOE. But the idea that it did affect it is firmly held by a vocal amount in the community. That has led to the belief that we would see another fall today, if enough believe a fall will happen, a fall will happen.

    Also of note is the size of Bitmex compared to the CBOE and CME, their open interest is ~$315 million which makes them 6 times bigger than the CME. Also their quarterly contracts are near the start of their lifetime so that number will likely be bigger near the end. And we do not have this belief that at every close the market is manipulated.

    conclusion

    We may see a fall because of the expectation of the expiry. But the world will not end and the market will likely bounce after it doesn't end.

    Thanks for reading.

    This is copied from my steemit post

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    More posts

    If you like this post there will be more like it on my posts page, this account will be dedicated to posting about trading cryptocurrencies and maybe a bit of general stock markets.

    If that sounds good please consider upvoting, following or resteeming. If you are feeling particularly wild you could do all 3.

    Disclaimer

    Please do not invest on the advice of a stranger on the internet, only use this advice here as a starting point for your own research, and then if you choose to invest please only invest an amount that you can afford to lose.

    submitted by /u/kilmarta
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    How Bitcoin helped me support my sister who suffers from Cancer

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 11:28 PM PST

    The isn't a happy ending story, since I will lose my sister, but life is a bitch and I am just telling you my story so everyone appreciates on how good their life is and money isn't everything.

    I invested in Bitcoin in August (1.1 btc for $5150). Multiplied the invested amount by nearly 50X (56 BTC). Using that amount I am getting my sister's lung cancer (Stage 3B) treated.

    I don't have anyone else in this world, my parents left this world 2 years back (Car accident), and I was left with my little sister who is still in school. We were recovering from the loss really well, and then one day she got unconscious in school and was hospitalized. They diagnosed her and later found out she is suffering from Lung cancer (Stage 3A). She used to cough and had shown symptoms of weight loss and others but both of us it was due to our parents loss. It was a shock to me but doctors said it can be treated and I cashed out 10 BTC and started her treatment. She was being provided the best treatment but her condition was only deteriorating and I moved her to the best hospital in the country, I cashed out another 25 BTC which was all used up to pay her bills and her condition was improving, I was so happy.

    Meanwhile, I had 21 BTC that I was using to marginal trade and I was going long when BTC started dipping from 16k in January. I kept increasing my position while it dipped from 16k to 12k and then my position got liquidated when the price dipped below 9940 (I remember this number because it changed my life forever).

    1 week forward, I have some money to pay the bills for another 2 weeks, but I have no clue on what I will do after that. We used to live on our rented house, our parent's property was illegally overtaken by our relatives. I have lost hope, and there is nothing I can do now. I haven't even told my sister and how could I even tell her that she will die as her brother has failed.

    Life gets sorted in the end is something everyone says. But it isn't true, I have lost so much and the last thing I love will be snatched from me soon. Life is a bitch but I will continue to live it but as a person who is dead from inside.

    submitted by /u/NotLegend1
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    Bitcoin is at the critical support level.

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 01:46 AM PST

    https://twitter.com/YarrPiratez/status/956824837330173952 Do you think it will dump even more or is it going to move up from here? See the chart in the twitter. :)

    submitted by /u/RealHeroTV
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    Decentralised Hiring Network - Own your work experience & reputation on the blockchain. Then earn CVTokens by sharing it. (http://rblock.co)

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 09:37 AM PST

    Anonymous hiring network: Interact in a network with no prejudice. No longer will central platforms own your skills or experience data. You decide who you share them with and when.

    Get paid for your time & data: Workers are empowered. Earn CVTokens for sharing your R_Block profile and interacting with recruiters. Like a LinkedIn inmail fee that's re-routed directly to the worker.

    Profile becomes shareable CV: Your R_Block profile will be the last CV you'll ever need. Turn your proven skills & work history into a shareable CV. A trust protocol you own.

    For more visit: http://rblock.co

    submitted by /u/Bernarates
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    Tether fud is stupid. Heres why

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 08:55 AM PST

    If people really believed tether was going to crash to nothing then where are all the people shorting tether? If it goes to 0 you make 2x your money shorting on kraken.

    submitted by /u/raorbit
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    Cryptocurrency macOS Taskbar Tracker - CryptoCap

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 08:53 AM PST

    Hey everyone, I created a simple cryptocurrency taskbar tracker for macOS that I thought some of you might find useful. It's called CryptoCap. Allows you to save your favorite coins and create price alerts. I hope you enjoy it and would love to hear any feedback that you all have on it!

    Also, if anyone is trying to figure out how to sign an electron app for MacOS, PM me. I found the documentation pretty lacking, so I'd be happy to help.

    Mac App Store

    submitted by /u/CRodg
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    Market manipulation related to CBOE and CME futures!?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 05:42 AM PST

    Both when the CBOE future expired and today, when the CME bitcoin future is approaching settlement, there has been a significant drop in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite low volume and I would guess that they are dominated by one single liquidity provider/market maker. This market maker(probably DRW) is probably short the future and probably long the spot. At expiry, they will gain if the price is low(cash settlement) and have an edge after settlement when the price rebounds(they are now only long and got rid of the short leg in the futures expiry). Unfortunately both CME and CBOE has chosen very bad settlement procedures which are easy to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price on Gemini - an auction with very low volume most of the time. CME's model is better but still not good, VWAP on four underlying exchanges is a good thought but if that VWAP is calculated over only one minute of trading it is meaningless. With few large participants (most bitcoin trader do not even know the significance of that minute) the volume over such a short time span is very limited. Even if many large participants would have interests in any of theses settlement procedures they would most probably have the same position and benefit from the same side of market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over many hours instead(this is not a T-bill future size-wise (Yet)). The conclusion is that we probably will see a lot of strange market action around every future expiry and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!!

    submitted by /u/insignq
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    huobi.pro anybody use them?

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 11:38 AM PST

    I want to try huobi.pro for a few trades and see they have a .1btc limit per daily withdrawal. Has anybody had any experience with them? Where are they located now? Anybody have any problems with withdrawals?

    Thanks guys,

    submitted by /u/vroomDotClub
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    Bitcoin latest: Trump official says cryptocurrency is being used for 'illicit activities' and must be regulated

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 04:36 AM PST

    Real-time crypto price index - Track your portfolio, customise the UI & no 3rd party ads :)

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 10:37 AM PST

    Yo guys, check this out - www.livecoinwatch.com Use it to track your portfolio, watch prices in real-time, customise the UI & no 3rd party ads are shown! What do you think?

    submitted by /u/lewjc
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    Remember that time you said TA was bullshit?

    Posted: 26 Jan 2018 12:58 AM PST

    Remember that chart I posted yesterday?

    https://imgur.com/a/itDhY

    It couldn't fit better if I wanted it to

    https://imgur.com/gallery/WOxE6

    submitted by /u/Buhdumtssss
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    Margin trading returns on Kraken on 18:00 UTC 25-01-2017 and free trading continues through January 31

    Posted: 25 Jan 2018 03:36 AM PST

    From our latest blog post (also going out via email to all clients):

    Kraken will re-enable the ability to open new long and short margin positions at 18:00 UTC on Thursday January 25 (10am PT). This means that clients can once again use leverage to amplify trading profits and gain in both up and down markets. Kraken temporarily disabled the creation of new margin positions as a precaution following a major system upgrade that was completed on January 13 2018. The system upgrade included a new and more scalable trade engine. Note that margin will only be re-enabled for areas it was recently available prior to the system upgrade (as of January 10th).

    Margin trading works exactly as it did before, only with the system upgrade the experience will now be even smoother. Clients unfamiliar with margin trading who want to get started can begin with our video tutorial and check out our support center for more detailed information on margin trading.

    Also, free trading and reduced margin fees continue until January 31!

    • All unleveraged trades will be charged zero fees until January 31, 2018 (UTC)
    • Margin position, open, and rollover fees are reduced to 0.005% until January 31, 2018 (UTC)

    Please follow our status page, Twitter and blog for updates:

    submitted by /u/kraken-eliah
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