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    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 21, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 21, 2017 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 21, 2017

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Am I the only one who thinks this pullback is healthy?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 09:23 AM PST

    We have had a crazy bull run since thanksgiving, lots of FUD just because of a 20% pullback when we are up 18x this year.

    submitted by /u/ss2194
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    Your Daily Moon Math - 2017-12-21

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 08:39 AM PST

    For those who didn't catch it in the daily yesterday, the moon math site is published.

    Still needs a lot of work, but I'll post Moon Math updates that link to the site from now on. The table is there and there's one rainbow chart. It wasn't that long ago that I started doing the rainbow charts. More will make their way in as time allows.

    A lot of people have suggestions for the site. Those are all very welcome and I need to start tracking them using a ticket system. So, I'm opening up the github details for everyone to submit tickets. If you have suggestions for changes please submit them to the issue tracker. Otherwise, I'll lose all your brilliance:

    The rainbow chart colors are terrible, and there's nothing I hate more than futzing with colors and style. Please submit hex codes for me to use. Colors are 70% transparent (0.3 opacity). So, consider the color you choose after transparency on a white background is applied.

    Working through caching issues. If it seems like something is off in the data, use a hard refresh.

    • Hard refresh: hold(<ctrl/cmd><shift><r>)
    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    The problem with Ver's position

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 07:07 PM PST

    Just listened to a debate between Ver (BCH) vs. Jameson Lopp (BTC). It was fascinating.

    But the biggest issue I have with Ver's argument (which he also uses on CNBC and the media) is that he repeatedly cites the wrong cause for BTC declining in market share and I believe he knows it.

    Ver consistently cites "BTC used to be 100% of the market share but has since dropped" which is absolutely true. However, the reason he says this is, is because people are sick of slow transaction times, increased transaction costs, and a growing lack of transaction reliability.

    How many moms & pops out there investing in BTC because they heard about it at the local grocery store do you really think give a rat's ass about these issues let alone even comprehend them?

    The reason BTC has lost market share in the last few years is simply because there are hundreds more players in the space now each with their own interesting solutions to existing problems and applications. Most are entirely different from BTC and its goals. That's the reason. Not because of the transaction times or the fees.

    Sure though - there's absolutely a handful of folks who notice and are put off by these aspects of the BTC user experience in the ways Ver points out, but I really don't think there's a statistically significant contingent of investors who are like, "Dude, F these transaction times and fees! I'm going to switch to these other coins that are exactly like BTC but better/cheaper/faster." Fact is, there ARE no other coins [currently] that are exactly like BTC but better/cheaper/faster, although that's what BCH is trying to be, so that's the position Ver is taking.

    I find it in very poor taste that Ver is attempting to manipulate the non-technical public with arguments like this.

    And, unfortunately, BTC doesn't really have a consumer-oriented charismatic spokesperson to call him out on this.

    Curious to hear if anyone else agrees, or thinks I'm smoking crack.

    Thanks for reading.

    submitted by /u/sylvermyst
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    Are the whales really cutting back?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 08:44 AM PST

    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-12-21/bitcoin-whales-are-cutting-back

    "There seems to be a broader trend here. There's been a drop in the number of ultra-fat Bitcoin holdings, owned by the market whales, at exactly the time when Wall Street is desperate to play in the Bitcoin casino and ordinary punters are mortgaging their house to bet on a hot crypto tip. ... "

    Hmmmm .... Thots?

    submitted by /u/iymustwbhl
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    A lot of cryptos are taking a hit right now... this is my analysis, and advice for the future.

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 09:42 AM PST

    Pretty much all cryptos were soaring before Coinbase adopted BCH. The dips in other currencies, such as LTC, ETH and BTC, especially, seem to be inversely tied to whatever rises and falls BCH experiences.

    Various currencies are not intrinsically linked by the minute, in particular, LTC and others seem to lag a bit behind whatever BTC is doing, sometimes having wild fluctuations before aligning more properly with BTC over a slightly longer time block.

    Before going too much further into this, keep in mind that a lot of cryptos are generally following the swings of BTC... huge gains for BTC usually are mirrored, as well as falling values.

    Now, if you look at BCH, you can see something rather different. BCH, almost always, rises as BTC falls, and vice-versa. One might think this represents some kind of confidence in such a currency, or distrust when it falls, and that seems like a valid explanation, but an easier way of thinking about it is like this: BCH is literally "sucking value" out of the other cryptos, hitting BTC and then cascading down through the others.

    How much has BTC fallen since BCH hit Coinbase? Nearly the value of BCH, and then somewhat stabilized. There is a direct correlation between the value of BCH at any given time and the value of BTC, but there is also a type of lag, as is seen when other cryptos follow BTC, except for this lag can be more pronounced - as the correlation is one where, typically, the linked values are realized on the market at a slower pace.

    We're likely going to see a sort of stabilization soon. If you're waiting for the price of BTC to go back up, be on the lookout for BCH to start falling. Sometimes the two cryptos will decline together, this is because people are losing faith in the market and converting back to fiat, or "cashing out". This could trigger a type of spiral where all cryptos lose a lot of value rather quickly: especially as some parts of the world are experiencing holidays where having fiat on hand would make sense to the average person.

    This isn't all bad news, BTC and other cryptos were due for an adjustment. You actually should look at the positive thing that is happening now, and that is that, whatever crypto you prefer, you will (soon) be able to buy back in at a much more manageable price point.

    Think about it this way, if BTC is worth $20,000 and you want to double your money, then you must wait for BTC to become worth $40,000 - which a couple of weeks ago did not seem like a bad prospect.

    Most of these cryptos WILL recover, it is inevitable. The technology has not changed, the concept has not changed, just a rogue competitor temporarily soaked up some of the value from other major cryptos. It might sustain some of that value, but once the market properly adjusts, the cryptos should go back up.

    As I am typing this, BTC and other cryptos are literally in an almost free fall state. I try to look on the positive side. If you own ten ETH or ten LTC instead of 0.1 of either, then you will be better off day trading and trying to profit off of volatility. If you've been HODL, you can keep HODL and rest assured the prices will recover. Weak hands right now are further driving the market down.

    submitted by /u/saintpetejackboy
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    Official Enigma AMA - Thursday, Dec 21, 9AM PT - Submit Questions Now!

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 09:37 AM PST

    Australian major bank temporarily (hoping) stopped allowing deposits to coinspot exchange

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 04:33 AM PST

    I am not sure whether someone had raised this before and apologies if it had been. As some of the crypto (as of now) being purchased with fiat currency will be a major threat to the financial institutions (majorly banks) survivals, don't you think banks can form a syndicate and disallow customers to send money to exchanges to buy crypto?

    submitted by /u/Ashtanya
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    Bitcoin Consensus Price Estimates

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 08:42 AM PST

    I think it would be interesting to get a consensus price forecast on various cryptocurrencies from /r/BitcoinMarkets, so I'm compiling future estimates here: (survey takes 2-3 minutes): https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc-VlNW6lHKRgmKdg7RhDU5cJjPiJj5T2f3XTFE6BJ_wnAktg/viewform?usp=sf_link#responses

    I'll publish the breakdown tomorrow.

    I also surveyed 100 people from the general public to find their understanding of blockchain, BTC, and ETH. You can see the results from the public survey, here: https://medium.com/@ajwatson/the-inaugural-cryptoasset-sentiment-survey-ade3a92ca4d0

    submitted by /u/career_redditor
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    What's the better hedge against Bitcoin? Certain alts or USD?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 08:30 AM PST

    Mod Request: No nominal insults

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 03:57 PM PST

    I came across this thread, and thought it would be a great rule to set in place:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/7j50ps/meta_seeking_user_feedback_on_insults_directed_at/

    Examples that would not be tolerated:

    • Drumpf
    • Obummer
    • Roger Vermin
    • Jihad Wu
    • Meth

    etc

    submitted by /u/jeanduluoz
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    Is there a way to graph my total exchange balance over time?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 03:59 AM PST

    I mainly use Poloniex. Is it possible to display a graph of how my total holdings have changed over time? Is there a program that can create this based on my trading history? Or, is there a program that can periodically fetch my balance from the API and plot it? If a method of doing this exists, please let me know. If not, I'll happily pay someone to manually plot my balance (if possible) or create a program that does this. Thanks

    submitted by /u/revcback
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    Best Way to withdraw from Bitfinex

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 01:23 AM PST

    Hi, im from Croatia (EU) and I've made an account on bitkonan and i want to transfer it on bitfinex and then withdraw BTC from it,what is the cheapest way to do it?

    submitted by /u/lipo2221
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    1 BTC or diversified portfolio

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 09:33 PM PST

    When I first started in cryptocurrency, 1 BTC seemed so far out of reach. So I bought cheaper coins of variety such as IOTA and LTC.

    After putting in more money every week and with the growth of the values of my coins, now I have exactly the equal value of portfolio as 1 Bitcoin. If I sell everything at the moment, I will have 1.0 BTC pretty much.

    I sort of believe Bitcoin will grow to $500,000 to $1M in the future based on what other people say publicly.

    It makes me wonder if I should hold 1 bitcoin or keep the current portfolio. I will keep investing more gradually but not in significant amount.

    If 1 BTC becomes $100K in 5 years, it will be amazing. I like the potential of Litecoin which is trading at 0.018 BTC, and LTC accounts for about 45% of my portfolio. And if LTC grows to 0.1 BTC in 5 years, assuming BTC is $100K by then, LTC will be $10K. Then my current portfolio will worth more than $200K.

    What would you do? What are your thoughts?

    submitted by /u/neomillion
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    Coinbase Refund/ Legal Action

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 06:00 AM PST

    So can I expect a refund from Coinbase akin to the ETH flash crash or do I need to join a class action in the US?

    For what happened: Same as that guy with the large post on r/coinbase Market buy around 4k, received coin at about 6k. That's fine, I watched the price rise to 8k in 2 minutes and hit sell. Get told it's in post only mode but watch the price fluctuate for 2-3 more minutes.

    I have a reasonable expectation that coinbase will not shut down trading on a new product less than ten minutes after launch, furthermore we should all have a reasonable expectation that this would have been announced with less than an hour's notice late in the evening.

    If I'd have bought in and watched the price immediately crash to current levels that would be my bad, and I wouldn't have a right to grievances. But I was allowed to buy but not sell coins on a live exchange by a company that is now investigating itself for insider trading.

    I have no rights to be compensated for my failures to predict price, but I do have the expectation that the mechanics should work as expected less than ten minutes in on an established exchange.

    submitted by /u/thatoneguy092
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    Is a non-witness "anyone-can-spend" still considered a valid tx on upgraded nodes?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 05:32 AM PST

    I had a question regarding how anyone-can-spend scripts work after BIP141.

    Does the latest core wallet software now consider "anyone-can-spend" transactions as invalid? Or will it still accept blocks using these scripts?

    I ask because the BIP141 proposal doesn't seem to offer this detail, other than for wallets to 'be weary' of such transactions. Is that just for old nodes? Or does that include new ones too?

    I was going to post this on r/bitcoin but on a separate note I can't see the link to make text posts over there.

    submitted by /u/DizzySoul
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    CEX.IO 2FA keeps reading invalid

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 04:29 AM PST

    I get up this morning and go to make trades, yet it says my 2FA is invalid MULTIPLE times. I've contacted support and heard nothing. Restarted my phone. nothing.

    Google authenticator

    submitted by /u/youdeserveaheart
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    BCH trade on GDAX and Coinbase?

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 04:23 AM PST

    Hi everyone, is the bch trade working on both exchanges? Doesn't seem like people are selling their bch ?

    submitted by /u/phredatox
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    Dollar cost averaging and moving coins off exchanges...

    Posted: 21 Dec 2017 12:13 AM PST

    How do you guys deal with moving coins off exchanges to say cold storage after you dollar cost average in? Say for instance I put $50 a week on an exchange, buying 40% BTC, 40% ETH and 20% alts. I see advice of "just move with a cheaper coin" but that doesn't work when you're talking about long term hodling... I can't just change BTC to LTC to move to Trezor/Nano Ledger if I want to hodl BTC. But if I'm buying $80 in BTC a month I don't want to pay $15 fee to move it to cold storage. So do you guys just wait until you have a considerable amount where the fees are negligible or what?

    submitted by /u/PM_ME_BrusselSprouts
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    BCH to BCC at Binance?

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 01:35 PM PST

    Hi guys, I have BCH and want to deposit it to binance, it says BCC under Bitcoin Cash at Binance and then the following:

    IMPORTANT: Send only BCC to this deposit address.Sending any other currency to this address may result in the loss of your deposit.

    Why is there a name differential? I really wanted to send it to binance.

    submitted by /u/youdeserveaheart
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    Sold BTC and now need to pay over 80% in taxes - looking for tax exempt country

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 05:39 AM PST

    There are no words to express my anger. I was supposed to be taxed "only" 28% capital gains but apparently since this is my only income it is considered a professional activity, therefore normal income taxes apply.

    Due to the large amount I am on the highest tax bracket of my country: 48% IRS, 5% solidarity tax, and finally 29.6% social security.

    That amounts to a staggering 82.6% in taxes. From my total cashout of 400,000 EUR I can only keep 69,600 EUR. This is absolute and complete bullshit. I feel ill, I am weak, I am in complete shock. I am being robbed. I held all these years through ups and downs, I lost sleep, I had anxiety, only to end up giving most of it away.

    My cost basis is 0 since I never actually bought BTC so all I sell is 100% profit. Don't tell me I didn't risk anything, because I did, I dedicated the last 5 years of my life exclusively to Bitcoin, I built services and websites, until recently I had near 100% of my net-worth in BTC.

    Luckily I didn't sell all my BTC. So right now I am looking to change country and get away of these pieces of shit. Don't get me wrong, I need to pay these taxes so I can forget about this money, I am not going to run away while owing taxes, but I sure as shit don't want to do it again.

    submitted by /u/chickensdemonstrable
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    THOUGHTS - Bitcoin vs Indian Stock Market Bubble

    Posted: 20 Dec 2017 02:28 PM PST

    Before you downvote this into oblivion just take a look. I'd prefer some good arguments based on logic. And remember, you may think I'm comparing apples to oranges, but the universe is fractal in nature.

    People said this same stuff in 2013, in dot com bubble, in every bubble before that. It's always different this time

    I stumbled across it anyway and thought the bitcoin log chart (left) has a striking similarity to the Indian stock market bubble (right).

    https://i.imgur.com/k6SdLqh.png

    Added: Also history of course doesnt repeat exactly. But many factors are making me consider a top of 50-60k would be a good sell point.

    submitted by /u/CarlosPedro
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