[Daily Discussion] Friday, December 15, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

Thanks for trading at Kraken, and we hope you will enjoy the new trading engine and experience that we have been planning that is soon to be deployed.

submitted by /u/kraken-jpj
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Your Daily Moon Math - 2017-12-15

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:50 AM PST

There's a new 7-day performance column today. That's going to fluctuate wildly. The results of that column are being included in the /u/nannal calculations. The new column should make higher /u/nannal percentages even harder to achieve. Today vs yesterday is a good example of that.

Yesterday the rates of the 7-day performance column were basically identical to the results of the 30-day column. Today, it's showing basically sideways movement. Why is that? The closing prices we're using today came in before the price action we're seeing, and we went sideways for a week.

This week seems to be behaving surprisingly like last week, as if last week was a test run for what we expect to see this week. I'm not sure how much stock I put in repeating weekly fractal patterns, but it has become self-evident that /u/ilovebeans23 fucks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/7jgnty/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_13_2017/dr7dcuq

I'm adding a regular blurb to the bottom of the moon math table because a number of people keep asking if they should buy bitcoin based on the Moon Math table or Azop's charts. The answer is no, you should not. You should learn to hunt. Then you should learn to avoid being hunted.

Good hunting.

Azop's Rainbow Charts

Closing Price: 16,531.08 USD
https://imgur.com/a/1YmVL

Moon Math Table

Closing Price: 16,678.89 USD

Label	7-day Performance	30-day Performance	60-day Performance	90-day Performance	2017 - Present Performance	2016 - Present Performance	2015 - Present Performance	2014 - Present Performance	2013 - Present Performance	2012 - Present Performance	2011 - Present Performance	July 2010 - Present Performance
From Date	2017-12-07	2017-11-14	2017-10-15	2017-09-15	2017-01-01	2016-01-01	2015-01-01	2014-01-01	2013-01-01	2012-01-01	2011-01-01	2010-07-18
Starting Price USD	$16,501.97	$6,635.41	$5,647.31	$3,774.27	$997.73	$432.00	$312.00	$804.00	$12.50	$5.27	$0.30	$0.09
% Change	101%	251%	295%	442%	1672%	3861%	5346%	2074%	133431%	316488%	5559631%	18532102%
Doubling in months	15.5	0.8	1.3	1.4	2.9	4.6	6.4	11.3	5.9	6.4	5.5	5.3
Doubling Period in Days	472	23	40	43	88	140	195	342	181	194	167	160
Days in period	7	30	60	90	347	713	1078	1443	1808	2175	2540	2707
Compounding Daily Periodic Rate	0.15246%	3.12010%	1.82%	1.66%	0.8150%	0.45%	0.37%	0.21%	0.40%	0.37126%	0.43%	0.45%
Daily Periodic Rate	0.15%	5.05%	3.26%	3.80%	4.53%	1.50%	0.78%	0.32%	0.90%	0.79%	1.04%	1.13%
Annual Rate of Investment	56%	1842%	1188%	1387%	1653%	549.0%	284.7%	115.3%	327.5%	286.7%	380.7%	413.2%
Over $20,000.00 on	2018-04-12	2017-12-19	2017-12-23	2017-12-24	2018-01-03	2018-05-02	2018-01-30	2018-03-08	2018-01-24	2018-01-28	2018-01-20	2018-01-24
Over $25,190.00 on	2018-09-10	2017-12-26	2018-01-05	2018-01-07	2018-02-01	2018-06-22	2018-04-02	2018-06-26	2018-03-23	2018-04-01	2018-03-15	2018-03-17
Over $31,620.00 on	2019-02-06	2018-01-03	2018-01-17	2018-01-20	2018-03-01	2018-08-12	2018-06-02	2018-10-12	2018-05-19	2018-06-01	2018-05-06	2018-05-06
Over $56,230.00 on	2020-02-19	2018-01-21	2018-02-18	2018-02-24	2018-05-10	2018-12-17	2018-11-05	2019-07-13	2018-10-11	2018-11-03	2018-09-17	2018-09-12
Over $79,430.00 on	2020-10-02	2018-02-01	2018-03-09	2018-03-17	2018-06-22	2019-03-04	2019-02-07	2019-12-24	2019-01-05	2019-02-04	2018-12-06	2018-11-28
Over $100,000.00 on	2021-03-02	2018-02-08	2018-03-21	2018-03-30	2018-07-20	2019-04-24	2019-04-10	2020-04-11	2019-03-04	2019-04-07	2019-01-29	2019-01-18
Over $1,000,000.00 on	2025-04-21	2018-04-23	2018-07-26	2018-08-16	2019-04-28	2020-09-17	2020-12-23	2023-04-11	2020-10-01	2020-12-17	2020-07-16	2020-06-15
/u/nannal 's A+ on	NEVER!!!!	2018-02-17	2018-04-05	2018-04-15	2018-09-01	2019-05-23	2019-11-08	NEVER!!!!	2019-11-08	NEVER!!!!	2019-06-23	2019-05-25
The Nannaling	75.0%		What	the shit	is this?
/u/nannal 2020	83.3%					Read about it

WARNING: Using Moon Math as a forecasting method is VERY dangerous and VERY tempting. I see no reason why we should expect to see past performance continue indefinitely. Don't make conclusion based entirely on what you see on some random post on reddit. It doesn't matter how compelling you might find this, it's one lens among many. If this isn't already obvious to you, for the love of GOD, start learning what critical thinking is.

Also, yes, a website is coming someday.

submitted by /u/jarederaj
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Are alts gonna be a valid hedge for Bitcoin?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 02:55 AM PST

In the long term, will investing in few, selected alts become a valid hedge for investing in Bitcoin?
Are they going to stop moving together with Bitcoin at a certain point?
Why yes or why not?

submitted by /u/Ridley_Reynolds
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If Someone gave you .1 BTC to purchase Alts in anticipation of 2018, what would you invest in?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 08:04 AM PST

submitted by /u/bigtreetron
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Coinbase CEO about to be on CNBC right now, potentially revealing new coin...

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 02:19 PM PST

Right now on Fast Money on CNBC the Coinbase CEO is about to be interviewed and they teased info about a new coin addition.

submitted by /u/CercleRouge
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What if the bubble never pops?

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 04:27 AM PST

People these day are only sure about one thing: Bitcoin bubble is gonna pop.
Let's think about a possible alternative reality for just one second: what if it doesn't?
Let's say it just starts going sightways, without losing or gaining too much for a whole year.
What would happen to our immortal souls in that case? Would that be better or worse?

submitted by /u/Ridley_Reynolds
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Is the whole no more net neutrality gonna cause problems with bitcoin

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:47 AM PST

submitted by /u/michaelfolia12
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Ripple help

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 07:35 AM PST

I'm looking to buy some ripple, it's cheap and I don't wanna invest much. I'm looking for advice on the best place to get it. Kramer is one but I have not heard a single good thing. Others that I can use but I'm not sure of are Bitsamp, gatehub, coinone, bit so, clinched, and korbit to name a few. Which of these would be the best one to use

submitted by /u/Broomizo
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Poloniex Margin Trading Stuck/BUG. Interest keeps accruing. Coins gone.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:30 AM PST

Guys. I think this is outside the exchange megathread. I want to warn you guys that if you do a lot of margin trading on Poloniex, there is a bug in the platform that would make your coins disappear.

I had a trade that failed but it shows up in my history. When I look at my open positions, there is nothing. I have no open orders as well. It says I borrowed certain amount of BTC but my unrealized P/L is STUCK at 0. My lending fees keep going up every hour. I contacted support. How does Poloniex fix something like this?

submitted by /u/angrycluck
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Marking up other people's ideas on TradingView

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:56 AM PST

Can you Save other people's idea charts and then add further drawings to them? I want to create a master chart of all the valuable ideas I have come across for btc on TradingView

submitted by /u/DelPrive235
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Don't be fooled by Google Trends date ranges!

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 09:29 AM PST

If you look at the last twelve months, it looks like searches for "bitcoin" are at a record high - and they are, with plot points averaged per week. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin

If you look at the last 7 days - with plot points averaged per hour - it looks like the last five days have seen continual decreases, now struggling to maintain 50% of the record high of a few days ago. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=bitcoin

submitted by /u/joshuahedlund
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Purchasing help

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 08:31 AM PST

I tried to buy some btc using my debit card again but even when I got the success message, I didn't see it in my account after 20 hours. I tried again with the same result so I sent an email to coinbase support to try to have only one of those go through. Now it's been about 12 hours since the email but I was curious if anyone else had similar issues?

My very first transaction went through immediately so I thought this was strange.

submitted by /u/ogonga
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The crypto-craze is the same psychological phenomenon that led us to the dotcom bubble and housing bubble.

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 08:10 AM PST

Call it what you want: the "greater fools" theory, the "castle in the sky", or whatever. Right now, most people only care about BTC because of its enormous price appreciation. For the vast majority of participants who are purchasing bitcoin, they expect no utility from it other than to sell their place on the blockchain for more money to some other greater fool. There is a hope that prices will stabilize at some absurd price (I have heard $1 million/BTC). That will not happen. Like gold, BTC has--at its absolute best--a long term expected return of 0%. It produces nothing (and consumes a monstrous amount of resources).

This Market is driven by greed and the psychology of speculation. It is enabled by low interest rates, a strong employment market and a bull market that won't quit. There is a confluence of events that encourage market novices to pour into crypto-currency. Namely, the unprecedented encouragement of a social media echo chamber, the excitement and psychology of speculation, the rush of dopamine received by seeing the price of bitcoin extend further, the fear-of-missing-out, the anxiety of getting-in-before-the-train-leaves-the-station, and society's vague acknowledgment that technology it doesn't truly understand can produce eye-popping investment returns. Low interests rates engender easy money, but also a search for returns. When investors can't make money on interest, they go searching for returns in all the wrong places. This is the same playbook we have seen before--particularly during the housing and dotcom bubbles.

It is worth pointing out again why some investors make extraordinary amounts of money. Ideally--although not always--they are serving society by allocating capital towards the most productive means. Although this is an abstract concept, it is fundamental to a capitalist, efficient, productive and wealthy society. It is also an incredibly exacting and tedious task to identify--rationally--where opportunity exists based fundamental valuations or some extraordinary market insight. Those allocations not only stand to make the investor an outsized return, the intelligent investment serves society by increasing productivity and creating wealth. Intelligent investors are ones that base their allocations on intrinsic value, or some market insight, as in the case of venture capital. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not an investment that will create wealth. Blockchain technology certainly has utility, but allocating money to bitcoin doesn't serve our society in any way. It doesn't give capital to (legal) entrepreneurs, and it won't create lasting value.

submitted by /u/Yanlii
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NOOB - Can you trade straight out of your BTC wallet?

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 06:18 PM PST

Quick question:

Currently I have my BTC at Coinbase and I was going to buy some ripple through converting BTC to XRP at Shapeshift (since Changelly doesn't have XRP anymore). However, you guys know, Coinbase is extremely slow with their transfers and thanks to that, my conversion order at Shapeshift got cancelled but Coinbase is still processing the order. Meaning it's going to Shapeshift, and they will have to send it back to BTC.

Now to my question. Because of that transaction, I pay $17 in fees to Coinbase, which I would have liked to avoid. So I was thinking if it was smarter to have some BTC in my desktop wallet or physical wallet and send it out of there, through shapeshift for example in order to avoid that $17 fee in case it doesn't go through.

Let me know your thoughts.

THANK YOU

submitted by /u/Kgroschi
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LiveEdu ICO -Bring Cryptocurrency education to the masses

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 06:12 AM PST

Unlike other ICOs that do not have a product launched and bear product development risks, LiveEdu is an existing developed product with a monetization model and seasoned team.

https://tokensale.liveedu.tv/

https://medium.com/liveedu-ico

submitted by /u/BlasiusZZuyev
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How AI and Investing are Merging

Posted: 15 Dec 2017 04:59 AM PST

https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/2017-10-11/how-ai-and-investing-are-merging

submitted by /u/SettySatt
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Let's avoid confusion and misinformation on how Futures work. Read this to educate yourself

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 01:45 PM PST

https://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/futures2.asp

There's way too much misinformation and confusion about how futures work around here. Read the above if you'd rather not be blindsided by institutional investors down the road. Not that there's any reason to worry, but it empowers you to know how contango affect the spot price, what the implications of the future expiring on Jan 17 are, etc, etc...

Be a savvy investor

submitted by /u/ptxb
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Pre-Christmas PSA: There might be some BTC in your Coinbase that you've forgotten about.

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 09:52 PM PST

(especially for the lurkers!)

A few years ago, Coinbase had this thing where if you signed up you'd get $10 of BTC deposited in your account. Of course, a few years ago BTC was under $1000, so you might have a pretty nice present for Christmas if you have a Coinbase account you've forgotten about.

submitted by /u/throwawaybankam
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If I sell bitcoin on an Australian exchange as a foreigner do I owe any tax over there?

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 05:17 PM PST

I live in Italy but have an Australian bank account (from having lived there previously) that I have the money transferred into.

submitted by /u/dialupkid
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Any good way of checking balance across exchanges?

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 07:38 PM PST

Any good way of checking my balance across exchanges at once ? I'm trading on number of different exchanges. Thanks

submitted by /u/adonisbos
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Do i limit my risk with a stop-limit sell order.

Posted: 14 Dec 2017 05:20 PM PST

Quick preface: I am relatively new to BTC as well as investing (outside of retirement and indexed funds). I am in the process of doing as much research as possible into blockchain technologies/crypto-currencies and investing/trading. I have invested a small amount in BTC as motivation to learn more and learn faster. My knowledge of the correct terms is lacking so please let me know if you need clarification. The recent volatility has made me ask this question with my current limited understanding, normally I would have researched and asked something more informed if even required.

*I have a question regarding stop-limit sell orders and how likely my order is to be filled in the event of a significant fall in price. *

Say for example I bought 1 BTC at $10K. The price rises to $11K and I am happy with my situation. I think that BTC will likely continue an upward trend, but given the recent volatility I also want to limit my risk and give myself the opportunity to buy more at a lower price if it eventuates. So, I place a limit-sell order, if the BTC price drops below $10.5K I want my order to go on the book, I want this order to be fulfilled at any price between $9.5-$10.5K.

How likely is this order to get filled given the current volatility of 10 – 20% daily?

Typing out this question I realised I have another question. Let me know if I should create another post for this.

Say for example the above stop-limit order gets fulfilled is, there a way to queue up a buy order so that if the price dips below $8.5K and then hits $9K on an upward trend, I could buy? Would this just be a stop-limit buy order? How would I set it up? Would I need a bot for this? I currently use Bittrex as my exchange and the Coinigy free trail.

submitted by /u/Tetrisranger
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Breaking News

CryptoCurrency

Friday, December 15, 2017

[Daily Discussion] Friday, December 15, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

[Daily Discussion] Friday, December 15, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

Azop's Rainbow Charts

Moon Math Table

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