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    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, November 29, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    November 29, 2017

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, November 29, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, November 29, 2017

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Nasdaq Plans to Launch Bitcoin Futures in First Half 2018

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:43 AM PST

    Article URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-plans-to-launch-bitcoin-futures-in-first-half-2018-1511968313

    Archive (article is behind paywall) URL: https://archive.is/MReqP (new archive URL due to article being updated) https://archive.is/7o0KO

    From the article:

    Nasdaq Inc. and broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP are looking to join the rush on Wall Street to trade bitcoin, which powered above $11,000 on Wednesday.

    Nasdaq aims to launch bitcoin futures in the first half of 2018, according to people familiar with the situation.

    Separately, Cantor said it is seeking to launch bitcoin derivatives on an exchange it owns, also in the first half of next year. The moves come after two major Chicago exchange operators announced similar plans for the digital currency.

    (...)

    The emergence of bitcoin futures would be a big step toward maturity for the cryptocurrency, which is less than a decade old. By letting traders bet on whether bitcoin rises or falls, a futures market would make it easier for both big banks and retail investors to trade bitcoin.

    Seems like the race to launch Bitcoin futures is speeding up, with more actors entering the space quite soon. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/dnivi3
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    Why $10k bitcoin is not a bubble

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 09:20 PM PST

    $10k bitcoin might seem overwhelming to most people, Considering the average american has $4,436 in their bank account and almost half the world lives on less than $2.50 a day, its not hard to see why. However, the reality is $10k bitcoin means the same as

    • $100k = 10 Bitcoin
    • $5k = 0.5 Bitcoin
    • $100 = 0.01 Bitcoin
    • $10 = 0.001 Bitcoin
    • $1 = 0.0001 Bitcoin

    You get the point, The market cap is what matters. Bitcoin market cap is around $178,146,650,938 right now. Lets have some fun and see how it compares to some other things.

    • Coca Cola(a beverage corporation) has a market cap at $195,000,000,000 which is a lot bigger than bitcoin right now.

    • New Zealand(population of 4.693 million) GDP is around $198,043,000,000.

    • A single man Jeff Bezos(CEO of Amazon) is worth $100,000,000,000 which is around 61% of bitcoin market cap

    Now these comparisons were just for fun, the reality is bitcoin doesn't compare to any of these. Right now bitcoin is used globally in a decentralized fashion to store wealth, transact and trade for other currencies. Aka its used as a decentralized global currency.

    Now that is pretty big.

    So when you realize that its being used as a decentralized global currency but still smaller than Coca Cola, New Zealand GDP and that a single man is worth 61% of its market cap you will realize that its incredibly small!

    Everyone who is online can get involved in bitcoin within a few minutes even if they want to get involved with just a few dollars :)

    So don't let $10k bitcoin feel overwhelming, Its a red herring to the fact that you don't need much to get involved. And that bitcoin is still relativity small to how its being used right now.

    Original article: http://steemit.com/bitcoin/@freedoms/usd10k-bitcoin-seem-overwhelming-here-s-why-it-s-really-not

    submitted by /u/minisrikumar
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    Poll: Have you read the bitcoin whitepaper?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:04 AM PST

    Hi all!

    I'm always curious to know how deeply people are researching cryptos before investing in them, so I'm curious to see what level of depth people in this sub are going to.

    Please vote in the poll: http://www.strawpoll.me/14506065

    And if you haven't read it, I'll just leave this here: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/

    submitted by /u/Nickolai1989
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    Could the CME futures exchange be a bad thing?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:58 AM PST

    First off, my knowledge in this domain is fairly limited, so if I am wrong on any of this please let me know.

    I was thinking about the futures market that is starting up soon and I am starting to wonder if it could be bad for the those of us that are long on BTC. It seems that I have only heard that it is a good thing, bringing legitimacy and institutional capital etc. While I agree, there are likely to be many positive results from the institutional investments, there can also be many negative consequences that no one seems to be talking about.

    1. Derivatives markets are inflationary. As we all know futures contracts are a contract to deliver a good (in this case bitcoin) at a future date at an agreed upon price. However, as we have seen in the gold futures market, the contracts are very, very rarely settled in physical gold, rather almost exclusively in fiat. In fact, the law requires you to accept settlement of a futures contract in fiat. I don't know if this law will apply to the BTC futures exchanges, but I see no reason why it wouldn't, especially if the traders lobby the regulatory agencies to implement this policy. This allows derivative markets to grow exponentially larger than the markets they purport to represent. I don't recall the exact figures, but the supply of paper gold listed on contracts, is something like 12-15 times the supply of physical gold in the world. This depresses the price, by creating excess supply. This could threaten the fixed supply of bitcoin, which is one of its main advantages. In the end, more money in the market does not mean an increased price in this case.

    2. Futures markets allows for, even rewards, market manipulation. Say, for example, a hedge fund accumulates a large BTC position gradually over a month, of say, 10,000 BTC. Once that is complete, they can take a massive short position on the market, heavily leveraged, worth, say, 10 times the value of their BTC position. They can then rapidly sell off the actual BTC at a loss, but then profit from their short position. This could trigger a panic sell off from anyone with weak hands, especially people that are new to the market and aren't used to the massive fluctuations. Once the price drop significantly, they close their short position, and start the process over.

    I would be interested to hear other people's opinions on this. Thanks.

    submitted by /u/ourstupidearth
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    Gdax (coin base) just crashed....volume must be threw the roof...

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:59 AM PST

    CME says bitcoin futures coming this year, but date not set

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 11:56 PM PST

    From the Reuters-article, dated 21st of November:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - CME Group Inc, the world's biggest futures exchange, said on Monday it still plans to launch a futures contract for bitcoin this year, but that a notice on its website stating the contract would begin trading on Dec. 11 was posted in error.

    But the notice was later removed from CME's website and Laurie Bischel, a spokeswoman for the exchange operator, said the original posting "was due to an error with the website," without giving further details.

    (...)

    As of Monday [20th of November, 2017], CME had not yet filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch bitcoin futures, a spokeswoman for the company said.

    Cboe also said it has yet to file with for a bitcoin futures contract with the CFTC, but spokeswoman Hannah Randall said the exchange operator was in active discussions with the regulator.

    Article URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cme-bitcoin/cme-says-bitcoin-futures-coming-this-year-but-date-not-set-idUSKBN1DL1QP

    So, seems like 11th of December 2017 is not the launch date of CME Bitcoin futures nor has the Bitcoin futures passed regulatory review or even been filed with the CFTC. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/dnivi3
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    Next correction predictions?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:22 AM PST

    What do you guys think? I'm conflicted, should I buy more now or should I wait?

    submitted by /u/PoisonIvy2016
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    Nasdaq Plans to Launch Bitcoin Futures in First Half 2018

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:42 AM PST

    Valuing Bitcoin Using Metcalfe's Law

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 02:48 AM PST

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-28/bitcoins-valuation-using-metcalfes-law

    Article says Bitcoin is fairly valued if you use the Price/Metcalfe value

    "Metcalfe's law states that the bigger the network of users, the greater that network's value becomes. Robert Metcalfe, distinguished electrical engineer, was speaking specifically about Ethernet, but it also applies to cryptos. Bitcoin might look like a bubble on a simple price chart, but when we place it on a logarithmic scale, we see that a peak has not been reached yet.

    submitted by /u/mosymo
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    Major Problem With GEMINI Exchange.

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:37 AM PST

    US Fed is starting to think about its own digital currency, this means that Bitcoin will keep going...

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:54 AM PST

    William Dudley, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said at a conference Wednesday that the Fed is exploring the idea of its own digital currency, according to reports from Dow Jones.

    The Fed is scared... if Bitcoin/cryptos eventually take over the role (or however small part of the role) as a functional global currency vs. the USD, then the US is fucked. No more printing money at will.

    Just wanna share this thought and see what everyone else think.

    EDIT: What I'm really trying to say is that there are very BIG nations (China, Russia) and organizations that will stand gain if BTC gains traction and the USD loses its value as a global currency. They don't care about speculators making profit off trading BTC, there is a much bigger political picture here. The fact that the Fed is rattled means something.

    submitted by /u/Volt52121
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    Mark Hulbert: The chance of a bitcoin crash is greater than 80%

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 04:59 AM PST

    Main focus is the results of a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chance-of-a-bitcoin-crash-is-greater-than-80-2017-11-27

    submitted by /u/backofthefridge
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    Got to call out BitMEX for their crappy performance

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:45 AM PST

    I've been a fan of BitMEX for a couple of years and recommend them to everyone. But going to have to stop doing that now. They can't even handle the trade volume they are getting, and you can't get an order to go through in times of heavy volatility.

    This is no way to trade and no way to run an exchange. Earlier, I was trying to buy to cover my short and could not get an order to go through and then suddenly all the market orders went through at once and pushed the price up $400 in an instant. So got a bad fill there that cost me at lot of coin.

    And this has been going on for days now and they need to fix it...invest in infrastructure very quickly. I guess they are getting flooded with new customers like every other exchange but they need to get out in front of it.

    Anyway, I'm not going to bail on them at this point but can't keep trading in that type of environment indefinitely.

    submitted by /u/PeaceHere
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    Where can I access the USDTUSD (Tether:USD) pair on Poloniex?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 06:45 AM PST

    According to Tradingview Poloniex has an USDTUSD pair (trading Tether against the US dollar) and apparently there is active trading on it and it has a daily volume of $88k:

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=POLONIEX%3AUSDTUSD

    But logging in to Poloniex I can't find this pair anywhere (and I'm verified).

    Could anyone find it? Where is it? And where can I see it's orderbook data?

    submitted by /u/PolarOne
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    Next milestone which gives the same adrenaline rush as that of 10k?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 05:53 AM PST

    What could be the next milestone which will be as crazy as today's 10k madness? CME go live , 15k, 20k or 25k?

    submitted by /u/bitkyatha
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    While asleep, how can I make my Bitcoins automatically sell if it goes under $11,000 USD, and also automatically re-buy it back if it goes back over $11,000 (repeat this cycle perpetually)?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 09:08 AM PST

    If it goes under $11,000 USD, I want it to automatically sell it the event that it will continue dipping/correcting. If it goes back over $11,000 USD I want it to automatically re-buy it so I do not lose out gains if it turns out it did not dip.

    Even if this happens 5 times (I am aware of the small fee exchanges take per trade), how can I keep this cycle ongoing?

    Is this option available and built-in exchanges, or would I need a custom script/bot?

    submitted by /u/ProTruth
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    Bitcoin over 11,500 USD in Brazil

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 10:39 AM PST

    Newcomers and huge demand driving premium above 15%. Fasten your seatbelts, guys.

    submitted by /u/duduqa
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    So right now the mempool has a lot of transactions. About 60k. This makes the fees high. I need to do some transactions. When can we expect the fees to come down?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 06:06 AM PST

    Just wanted some head up about fees coming down anytime soon? in next few hours or next few days?

    submitted by /u/hwthrowaway92
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    Will bitcoin futures actually affect bitcoin price aside from media attention?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 02:30 PM PST

    My understanding is that futures will be another layer of bets on bitcoin but will not involve these institutions in actual bitcoin purchases. If that is the case, will it really affect any btc markets or just let wall street be wall street?

    submitted by /u/blurrsequence
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    How would you go about cashing out a large amount?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 04:52 PM PST

    Say 1 million+. I wouldn't exactly feel comfortable on an exchange. How would you do it?

    (I don't have anywhere near that amount, just wondering how one might execute a big exit)

    submitted by /u/rain-is-wet
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    Coinbase will credit BCH on Jan 1, 2018. What affect will that have on BCH and BTC?

    Posted: 28 Nov 2017 02:41 PM PST

    I'm very new at this. From my very limited perspective, I could see it going both directions:

    A.) A huge number of Coinbase customers receive their BCH and immediately trade it for BTC, causing BCH to plummet.

    Or

    B.) A large number of Coinbase customers see their new BCH balance and start trading with that instead, watering down the market for both BTC and BCH.

    Are either of these scenarios feasible? Likely? What else might happen?

    submitted by /u/flunky_the_majestic
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    Why are BTC Futures a big deal?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:32 AM PST

    I must admit, I was so wrong and BTC and never expected to broke 10k this year... looks like TA dont work for bitcoin lol anyway, I am happy for BTC, I hope it will never come back to lower than 10k

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 03:56 AM PST
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