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    Thursday, August 19, 2021

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - August 19, 2021 (GMT+0)

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - August 19, 2021 (GMT+0)


    Daily Discussion - August 19, 2021 (GMT+0)

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 05:00 PM PDT

    Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.


    Disclaimer:

    Consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

    Please be careful about what information you share and the actions you take. Do not share the amounts of your portfolios (why not just share percentage?). Do not share your private keys or wallet seed. Use strong, non-SMS 2FA if possible. Beware of scammers and be smart. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose, and do not fall for pyramid schemes, promises of unrealistic returns (get-rich-quick schemes), and other common scams.


    Rules:

    • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
    • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
    • Behave with civility and politeness. Do not use offensive, racist or homophobic language.
    • Comments will be sorted by newest first.

    Useful Links:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    We are enforcing a toughened stance on self stories

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 09:41 AM PDT

    "We know who you are. I have reported it to the admin team and they are considering taking legal action against you....Trust me, this is your first and last warning" - A PM I got from a mod after I exposed their shitcoin

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 09:41 AM PDT

    "We know who you are. I have reported it to the MoonPirate admin team and they are considering taking legal action against you. Yes, they have a lawyer who has helped every step of the way. And social media threats and mininformation make for A GREAT CASE in this day and age. Trust me, this is your first and last warning".

    3 months ago I came across a coin called MoonPirate, a coin based around rum/beer. It's a token that provided right to vote on a poll for what they should focus on next, but that's literally it.

    I exposed them for having a fake address on their website, since I looked them up on Google maps and called the business that was actually listed at that address. I also exposed the fact that the rum was selling for $200 a bottle and that the guy running the coin literally had zero prior experience making alcohol.

    I essentially just listed information from their website and got threatened with legal action.

    Best part though? The mod in question stopped posting 4 weeks ago and Moonpirate has fallen over 93% since he sent that PM.

    It sucks when people lose money. But its hard to sympathize with people who threaten legal action to stop you from sharing your opinions.

    submitted by /u/Ragefan66
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    Justice is served; Robinhood reported a net loss of $502 million

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 09:19 PM PDT

    We.. Justice is almost served! they are reporting a massive loss and shared have dropped but the users have more than doubled from last year!

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/18/investing/robinhood-earnings/index.html

    submitted by /u/marcovincitori
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    Coinbase launches in Japan

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 06:12 PM PDT

    This is ridiculous, a headline saying "Crypto market plummets below $2tn cap" and "BTC crashes to 44k". Remember we hit 28k just a month ago. Stay humble and widen your timeframe for market analysis.

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 08:04 PM PDT

    Crypto is slowly turning mainstream. The UFC signed a deal with Crypto.com and the logo is now inside the octagon at all events.

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 08:02 PM PDT

    I'm also glad that it's "Crypto.com" not something ambiguous like "BabySafeDoge" or whatever shitcoin is popular right now…

    These are the thing that will make people more aware of crypto and will invite more and more people into the market. I feel like a great idea would be if the UFC starts accepting bets using crypto. We already have something similar like how we bet on crypto prices on CoinFantasy, the UFC just has to implement it now.

    submitted by /u/jesusvsaquaman
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    Investing in crypto has made work feel like less of a burden.

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 10:38 PM PDT

    I Wake up 6am Monday-Friday and mine fiat from 7am until 3:30. Before I started investing in crypto, I couldn't care less about what I spent my money on and work was miserable. Investing in crypto made me think about my budget and all the useless stuff I was throwing my hard earned money at. I've started to watch my spending closer and saving now feels like a game. Watching my portfolio slowly gain value over the past year has been rewarding and working isn't as terrible as it used to be.

    submitted by /u/coburn24
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    Turns out they're still trying to find uses for Doge

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 08:08 PM PDT

    Spend 10 seconds imagining your phone or computer going belly up - it happens all the time. Then ask yourself, is your crypto still safe?

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    Probably not. Let's all spend a couple of minutes today checking that our crypto is safe. This is your retirement.

    For 2FA apps, turn on the backup option. In Google Authenticator, you'll have to manually export via QR codes.

    For wallets, make sure you have the seed or recovery phrase backed up at least two places.

    Good luck and stay safe.

    submitted by /u/unprotextor
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    I'm going to stop buying games and invest that money in crypto

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 01:05 AM PDT

    Hey everyone I'm new to this subreddit ,and I've decided to invest my money in crypto rather than buying games. I invest nearly $100-$200 every month in games.I wnated to know which coins should I invest in and why?

    Thanks in advance.

    submitted by /u/Character-Growth8474
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    The Bullrun is going to continue into 2022. Here's my flawless Technical Analysis:

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 04:34 AM PDT

    The Bullrun is going to continue into 2022. Here's my flawless Technical Analysis:

    Edit: I just want to say a HUGE thanks to everyone who gave me an award... there's a lot of them!

    Love you all so much 😎

    -------------

    Hi everyone, Nutty Joe here with another epic post.

    None of us know how much longer the bull market is going to last, nor if we will reach the previous All Time Highs seen in May. However, having completed extensive research in the last few days, I can tell you with complete confidence that the bull market will continue through to New Years, and beyond!

    I present to you three points that confirm my theory:

    1. Bitcoin will hit $100k in 2021
    2. Bullish investors outnumber Bears
    3. Warren Buffet told me personally that the Bullrun will go through to 2022.

    ----- 1. Bitcoin will hit $100k -----

    Figure 1 indicates BTC's path from August 2020 to August 2021 (present), represented by the Blue Line.

    The Red Line indicates Bitcoin's path to $100k for the rest of the year. This has been determined based on weeks of research I have performed (which I will not bother to explain as I am too tired; just take my word for it).

    Figure 1. The Red Line indicates Bitcoin's price change from August 2021 to New Year's. As you can see, we will easily hit $100k by then!

    This is irrefutable evidence isn't it! What a great analyser I am. Bitcoin to $100k by the end of the year is a certainty, and therefore indicates the Bullrun will continue on strongly.

    ----- 2. Bullish investors outnumber Bears -----

    This part requires very complex calculations. I have mathematically determined that there are more Bullish investors than Bearish, through an extensive algorithm.

    This sub has 3.3 million members; all of these people are hopeful that the Bull Market will continue on to 2022. Dividing this number by the current population of Earth, 7.9 billion, gives us Figure 2:

    Figure 2. Don't worry if these calculations are too confusing. Maths can be hard!

    From this, we can see that 42% of people in the world are bullish on crypto. That's nearly half of everyone alive! Therefore, we can safely guarantee that there are more Bulls than Bears currently.

    ----- 3. Warren Buffet confirms the Bullrun will last until 2022 -----

    I managed to get a hold of Mr Buffet, a famed investor and long-term supporter of money. I sent him the following message:

    Figure 3. Thank you Mr Buffet for contributing to my epic research!

    Astonishing! Warren Buffet believes the Bullrun is going into next year. He is one of the richest people alive: therefore we must take his word for it!

    ----- Summary -----

    Thanks to my excellent research, I have determined with 99.7% accuracy that the Bullrun will continue into 2022. Please trust me on this: would I ever lie to you good people?

    Thanks for reading. Nutty Joe over and out 😎

    submitted by /u/MrNuttyJoe
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    The reason why the Bitcoin subreddit is toxic.

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 03:47 AM PDT

    Hi everyone! Hopefully you are all doing great.

    Today I got a 7 day ban from the r/Bitcoin community. And honestly, I am baffled. Here is a small summary of the events on why I got banned - and why I think that subreddit and the moderators are the most toxic in the crypto community.

    It all started with the following question I saw on my timeline. For those who don't want to click the link, the question states: "What do you guys think of Ethereum? Is it a good coin compared to Bitcoin?" OP then specified he asked this on r/ethereum but wanted to see both sides of the story.

    I answered with the following answer. Again for all of you who don't want to click links, it states from my side:

    "Different coin all along.

    Bitcoin = store of value (like gold, but with a known supply).

    Ethereum = platform to facilitate contracts & finance.

    They are both good. I own both!"

    A few minutes after, I get the following DM on my Reddit account stating I was now banned from the community for 7 days due to "shitcoin shilling" LMFAO.

    Firstly, I did not shill I believe. Secondly, as if now Ethereum is a shitcoin!?

    Anyways, rant over. For all you newbies out there, be careful with coin-focused subreddits... as you can see they tend to be very one-sided.

    submitted by /u/DanMards
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    Cardano teams up with Ergo blockchain, which uses UTXO-based accounting like Cardano&Bitcoin, to work on a stablecoin contract called Djed which is the first formally verified crypto-backed algorithmic stablecoin contract that acts as an autonomous bank

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 12:04 PM PDT

    Cryptocurrency volatility is one of the obstacles to its wider adoption. Blockchain technologies provide benefits such as transparency, data immutability, and proven security of financial operations. Yet, it is harder than fiat currencies to predict how the market will behave, or forecast the value of a digital currency. This hinders using cryptocurrencies as accounting and exchange units in daily operations.

    A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency pegged to a basket of fiat currencies or a single currency (eg, USD or EUR); commodities like gold or silver; stocks; or other cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins include mechanisms that maintain a low price deviation from their target price and so are useful to store or exchange value, as their built-in mechanisms remove the volatility.

    Some stablecoins lack transparency and liquidity of their reserves, which compromises their price stability. To address these challenges, IOG has teamed up with Emurgo, another of the three founding partners of Cardano, and the Ergo blockchain, which uses UTXO-based accounting like Cardano, to work on a stablecoin contract called Djed. Djed is based on algorithmic design. This means it uses smart contracts to ensure price stabilization, and that the coin will be useful for decentralized finance (DeFi) operations.

    How stablecoins work

    Different mechanisms contribute to the stability of the coin's value and help eliminate price variations. These mechanisms are underpinned by the economic principles of supply and demand.

    A common mechanism is backing the stablecoin by a reserve of the currency used as the peg. If demand is higher than the supply of sell or buy orders, this supply should be increased to avoid fluctuations in the price. Typically, stablecoin reserves are not stored in cash. Instead, they are kept in interest-bearing financial instruments such as bonds. The returns on these provide revenue for the operator.

    As long as the stablecoin is fully backed by reserves in the currency to which it is pegged – and the operator can react quickly to variations in demand – price stability is maintained.

    Common risks

    Stablecoin reserves are commonly associated with investments. The lack of liquidity of these investments may prevent the operator from reacting quickly to demand. This compromises stability in the short term.

    A drawback of fiat-backed stablecoins is that they require trust in the entities keeping the reserves. Lack of the reserves' transparency or of the 'full-backing' claim, combined with inefficient stabilization measures, have already caused Tether stablecoin (USDT) to fall below $0.96, as shown in Figure 1.

    Issues of transparency do not arise when the backing asset is a cryptocurrency on a public blockchain. Furthermore, the use of smart contracts ensures efficient and reliable execution of stabilization measures due to its automated and secure mechanisms.

    Enhanced stabilization mechanisms of Djed algorithmic stablecoin

    Djed is a crypto-backed algorithmic stablecoin contract that acts as an autonomous bank. It operates by keeping a reserve of base coins, and minting and burning stablecoins and reserve coins. The contract maintains the peg of stablecoins to a target price by buying and selling stablecoins, using the reserve, and charging fees, which accumulate in the reserve, as shown in Figure 2. The ultimate beneficiaries of this revenue stream are holders of reserve coins, who boost the reserve with funds while assuming the risk of price fluctuation.

    The Djed stablecoin is designed as an asset pegged to a fiat currency (USD), along with a governing algorithm. This approach provides a stable means of exchange. But Djed is not limited to being pegged to the dollar. It can work with other currencies, as long as there are oracles providing the contract with the corresponding pricing index.

    The first formally verified stablecoin protocol

    Djed is the first formally verified stablecoin protocol. The use of formal methods in the programming process has greatly contributed to the design and stability properties of Djed. Using formal techniques, the properties are proven by mathematical theorems:

    • Peg upper and lower bound maintenance: the price will not go above or beyond the set price. In the normal reserve ratio range, purchases and sales are not restricted, and users have no incentive to trade stablecoins outside the peg range in a secondary market.
    • Peg robustness during market crashes: up to a set limit that depends on the reserve ratio, the peg is maintained even when the price of the base coin falls sharply.
    • No insolvency: no bank is involved, so there is no bank contract to go bankrupt.
    • No bank runs: all users are treated fairly and paid accordingly, so there is provably no incentive for users to race to redeem their stablecoins.
    • Monotonically increasing equity per reserve coin: under some conditions, the reserve surplus per reserve coin is guaranteed to increase as users interact with the contract. Under these conditions, reserve coin holders are guaranteed to profit.
    • No reserve draining: under some conditions, it is impossible for a malicious user to execute a sequence of actions that would steal reserves from the bank.
    • Bounded dilution: there is a limit to how many reserve coin holders and their profit can be diluted due to the issuance of more reserve coins.

    Djed versions

    There are two versions of Djed:

    • Minimal Djed: this version is designed to be as simple, intuitive, and straightforward as possible, without compromising stability.
    • Extended Djed: this more complex version provides some additional stability benefits. The main differences are the use of a continuous pricing model and dynamic fees to further incentivize the maintenance of the reserve ratio at an optimal level.

    Implementations

    IOG, Ergo, and Emurgo teams have been working on the implementation of the Djed algorithmic stablecoin contract earlier in 2021 to test different models.

    The first implementation of a Djed stablecoin contract was SigmaUSD on Ergo. This was the first algorithmic stablecoin deployed on a UTXO-based ledger in Q1 2021. It had a fee of 1% for buying or selling operations, and an oracle that updated the exchange rate every hour. This initial version was subject to a reserve draining attack by an anonymous user who owned a large number of ERGs (Ergo's native coin). The attack was ultimately unsuccessful, and it is estimated that the attacker lost $100,000.

    To further discourage such attacks, this initial deployment of Minimal Djed was replaced by a version where the fee was set to 2%, the oracle updated every 12 minutes, and every oracle update was allowed to change the price by at most 0.49%, unless the price difference was greater than 50%. This provided stronger resilience against reserve draining attacks.

    Djed has also been implemented by the IOG team in Solidity. One version uses the native currency of the Ethereum blockchain as a base coin, and another uses any ERC20-compliant token as a base coin. So far, these implementations have been deployed to testnets for Binance Smart Chain's testnet, Avalanche's Fuji, Polygon's Mumbai, Ethereum's Kovan, Ethereum's Rinkeby, and RSK's testnet.

    Djed: Cardano implementation

    The Alonzo update to Cardano will enable smart contracts using Plutus. Plutus is powered by Haskell, which guarantees a safe, full-stack programming environment.

    Draft implementation of an earlier version of Minimal Djed is available in the Plutus language. In this implementation, stablecoins and reserve coins are native assets uniquely identified by the hash of the monetary policy that controls their minting and burning according to the Djed protocol. This implementation also assumes that oracle data such as the exchange rate is provided as signed data directly to the transactions, instead of being posted on-chain.

    There is also an ongoing OpenStar implementation. OpenStar is a framework for private permissioned blockchains developed in Scala. The implementation of Djed using OpenStar follows the idea of off-chain smart contract execution to have a stablecoin on Cardano that does not depend on smart contracts executed on-chain.

    To find out more about Djed stablecoin, see the recently published research paper or check out the presentation by Bruno Woltzenlogel Paleo, IOG technical director, at Ergo summit 2021.

    We'd like to thank and acknowledge Bruno Woltzenlogel Paleo for his input to this article and support throughout the process of its creation.

    https://iohk.io/en/blog/posts/2021/08/18/djed-implementing-algorithmic-stablecoins-for-proven-price-stability/

    submitted by /u/cascading_disruption
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    London school of economics joins Hedera Hashgraph governing council

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 01:09 AM PDT

    The biggest use case of MOONs is right in front of your eyes!

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 12:35 AM PDT

    If you've played any sort of online video games, you'd understand this in an instant.

    People are social beings and we tend to show off our individuality and achievements.

    Jewelry for example is used to show off how much money we've made. It's a status symbol.That derives most of Gold's value.

    But in the digital world, like games, social media, etc. We have "High level stats" such as level 100 Mage, Assassin etc. Recently it's replaced more by in-game cosmetic items like Weapon skins and character skins.

    In social media, we have the "verified" tick, follower count, etc.

    It sounds trivial but people assign value to all of these things.

    Now, MOONs being visible next to our usernames mean one thing and Reddit knows it. It's an indicator of how much you've participated or hold a stake of in this community. This visual representation is like a status indicator. It acts like a In-game cosmetic item.

    As the moons/karma ratio goes down every month. The value of this status will increase as it gets harder to reach higher levels.

    Since the community is large with 3.3 million subscribers, this visual status has some significance and Reddit Admins know it. That's why they probably have decided not to hide it.

    submitted by /u/ultron290196
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    Does anyone ever have that fear that Crypto all of Crypto everything around us is just one super long game scam?

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 04:30 PM PDT

    Ive been watching a few documentaries and movies lately about these criminal groups and people who just fall for their shit. And you sit there going, that scam is so obvious. And it shocks you that if some guy just a looked a little deeper or just you know read something boom all unraveled. It never gets off the ground.

    I worry someday that all of this is just some elaborate scam cooked up by some Japanese Neet named Satoshi Nakomoto. Who couldn't get out of his house to get a job so he told his parents he's working on a "digital currency" project and got em to invest so he could buy more anime. Then his otaku friend took his parents letter about the project and put in on the internet explaining bitcoin. And he was like dudr I don't have a project. And thats where the scam came about, just put randome code on the internet and people will like interpret it how they will. And then Satoshi was like what if they find me and he friend was like, no one will ever know cause you never go outside.

    Then it got popular and Hoskins and Vitalik found out who Satoshi was because they met his friend at an anime con and he was all like bragging about it. So they flew to Japan and told Satoshi were making our own crypto called Etherium. And they kidnapped him and are holding him hostage in Hoskins basement and Vitalik wants to save but Hoskins knows the secret. And they need Satoshi never to appear or it will ruin the mystery of Crypto. And were right now in the part of the movie where like Vitalik saves Satoshi and he is going to come forward in a press conference and reveal the truth. It was all scam!!!!

    I have that fear sometimes. I also have the fear that I'm going to be one of the guys at the beginning of the movie being interviewed.

    Interviewer: So crypto is a digital currency?

    Me: Yes

    Interviewer: So you were told these numbers were money

    Me: Yes

    Interviewer: You spent money on mining and buying coins from people on the internet for numbers in a "wallet"

    Me: Not your keys not your money.

    Interviewer: Thats not the point, you invested money on imaginary money.

    Me. Fiat is imaginary. My bank statement isn't real money.

    Interview But it can be turned into this. Slams a 20 on the table.

    Me. I could do that too?

    Interviewer: By converting the coin on exchange for this 20.

    Me: Yes

    Interviewer: When you already had this 20

    Me: Yes

    Interviewer: So you traded your money for magic beans?

    Me: Uhh

    Interviewer: Did anyone try to warn you this is a scam?

    Me: Everyone

    Interviewer: And?

    Me: I was told I was early.

    Interviewer: After 10 years.

    Me: Yeah

    Interviewer: Is there anyone else you want to say to Satoshi or Vitalik or Hoskins who are being sentenced today?

    Me: Yeah, where Lambo?

    submitted by /u/Mr-com999
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    Did you know that in one point in time someone owned 92 billion bitcoin?

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 12:20 AM PDT

    https://decrypt.co/39750/184-billion-bitcoin-anonymous-creator

    In August 2010, Bitcoin's source code was exploited by someone who to this day remains anonymous. Enter block 74,638, the fateful block that created 184,467,440,737.09551616 Bitcoin, with two addresses receiving just over 92 billion Bitcoin each—92,233,720,368, to be specific.

    The bug was found and patched within 5 hours, and the faulty BTC removed.

    It's actually quite amusing to know that in one point in time the person with the most bitcoin wasn't Satoshi, but some random hacker dude.

    For fun, at $64k apiece, the hacker would have a worth of $5 quadrillion worth of bitcoin.

    submitted by /u/Iiau_
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    Who else feels like whatever happens in the market right now, they don't have enough of crypto stacked?

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 01:29 PM PDT

    During all my time in crypto, I have this feeling that I should be spending and projecting more of my daily money to cryptocurrencies. This is because we see these big booms, where we make gains of like 200% or more. In the long run, this rewards HODL:ers really well and all in all people who have patience to stay in the market.

    I have this feeling of just kind of missing out if I don't accumulate more, because we are still early in this space. Things are volatile, and we all are chasing big gains. Partly it is also FOMO, but I just want to know that at least I gave my best to my generation's opportunity of a lifetime.

    Not financial advice, rant over.

    submitted by /u/TheRealJNXD
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    You don't look at your investment accounts for 5 years. You come back to find yourself a multimillion, what would you do?

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 07:05 PM PDT

    I came up with this idea after reading a lot of people who forgot about their cryptocurrency investments to come back and find themselves dirty rich. What if your obsession finally burns out, you forget and move on then 5 years later find out that you have a bit over 100 million dollars in your account? What will you do?

    submitted by /u/MachinePata
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    What are some of the Alt coins you guys think have some real utility?

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 07:44 PM PDT

    Im not talking shit coins. But real Alt coins that have some real utility? Im not asking for shills but id like to get some opinions. The only one i have is Amp.

    Im still learning so go easy. I also have some cardano but im interested in what you all think is more viable?

    OK SO IVE DECIDED TO TIP 10 MOONS TO THE TOP COMMENT AND THEN I WILL BUY SOME OF THE CRYPTO THAT WINS AND POST A SCREEN SHOT. LETS SEE WHO IS THE TOP DOG!

    WINNER WILL BE POSTED AT 9:30 ARIZONA TIME! (Which means we never change our time zone like you all you crazy other states 🤣)

    WINNER WAS JUICIESTJ. 10 MOONS COMING YOUR WAY

    submitted by /u/Stray_Gh0st
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    Robinhood Posts Q2 Loss, Says Over 60% of Customers Traded Crypto. - It’s time to get everybody off of Robinhood

    Posted: 18 Aug 2021 01:35 PM PDT

    Who else reads price predictions for 5-10 years from now...

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 02:39 AM PDT

    And calculates how much their coins will be worth in the future if the predictions come true? Haha I know I do. We're all gonna be sitting on some serious coinage if they we keep going at this rate. Hope we're all able to pay off our debt and accomplish any financial/life goals we have. I feel like crypto is our best chance to get on more of a level playing field in this uneven world we live in....even though it makes me question my financial decisions and sanity at times heh

    submitted by /u/Syntheseyez
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    The Poly Network hacker is now refusing to return the remaining funds. Wants $33 million

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 02:57 AM PDT

    Whales Move Nearly $1,000,000,000 in Ethereum As Markets Pull Back – Here’s Where the Crypto Is Going

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 12:24 AM PDT

    When The Price Drops: The Psychological Effects

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 01:48 AM PDT

    When The Price Drops: The Psychological Effects

    This post focuses on the psychological effects of a price drop. Specifically, the reinforcing roles of social media (looking at you Reddit) and news are highlighted. When you know what a price drop does to the human psyche, you might be able take advantage of this.

    There are various methods to estimate whether the price of Bitcoin (BTC) or other crypto will rise or fall. For example, you can perform technical or fundamental analyzes on your cryptocurrency to determine the expected price. In addition to these two more well-known forms of analysis, there is also a slightly less well-known alternative: sentiment analysis.

    The investor's feeling is central here. This feeling is partly determined by the share price, but is also fed by external factors such as the news and opinions of others. We'll discuss the sentiment analysis in this post, with a central focus on the psychological effect of a price decline.

    The current market sentiment

    Q1-Q3 2021

    ​​​​​​​​​This year has been a great time for the crypto world. Making a loss seemed impossible and returns of hundreds of percent seemed up for grabs. Investor sentiment peaked and euphoria set in.

    Crypto investors sprang up like mushrooms. How different this is past the month of May. The events of 2017 seem to be repeating themselves. But what consequences does this have for the price of the various cryptocurrencies? And what is the consequence for the sentiment on the stock market?

    The cryptomarket has been taken some serious blows and the burning question is, do we stay in the corner where the final blows falls? Or will the cryptomarket recover and flip the price back up like a bull?

    At the time of writing, BTC is trying to breach through the 48K resistance-level. This means that we are in what seems like a recovery phase, something we saw in the bullrun of 2013 as well.

    In itself there is nothing strange about a number of strong corrections of as much as 20 to 30% during a strong bull market. As mentioned before, this also happened during the bull run in 2017 and in 2013. If it's your first time as a crypto investor, such a ride down seems pretty scary. It is difficult to determine whether these price drops are just corrections or a crash.

    What is the current market sentiment?

    At the time of writing, there is a positve sentiment in the crypto market, as you can see in the image below. The image shows the Fear & Greed Index. The general market segment is measured via various variables. Examples of these variables are social media, research and market volume.

    https://preview.redd.it/m8mwnu6fx9i71.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a3b39553ec1440824c9dd8b477b55c1995b56d1

    The positive sentiment results in a bullish mentality among investors, due to the price of BTC (and other coins) going up strong. We're currently sitting at a greed index of 70, which is caused by the current resistance level at 48K.

    What matters now is whether the positive sentiment continues. Nowadays you even discuss crypto with the local baker or that annoying drunk uncle at birthday parties. Even Paris Hilton gave advice on crypto. If everyone in your area has an opinion about crypto and says that you achieve brilliant returns without any effort, this can be a signal that a hype is coming to an end. Of course, this does not mean that the bull run is over.

    The causes of the sharp price declines this year

    1. Bad news (FUD).
    2. The role of social media.

    Bad news

    In May 2021, the Chinese State Council released a summary of the Chinese government's plans for mining and trading Bitcoin. It stated that the Chinese government wants to stop mining and trading in Bitcoin.

    Half a day later, this news item led to a fall in the Bitcoin price of more than 10%. But not only Bitcoin had to suffer, the altcoins also experienced a drop in price. This isn't the first time China has released a similar news story.

    In addition to the bad news from China, there have been more examples of negative news lately. A similar message came a month earlier from Turkey where the Turkish Central Bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. The rationale for the ban is the risks associated with the transactions and protecting the national lira.

    The latest news came from the US, where the Senate approved the infrastructure bill, which contains stricter tax-reporting requirements for cryptocurrency brokers.

    Social media

    Elon Musk pushed the price of Bitcoin up in February 2021 by reporting that Tesla had purchased 1.5 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin and that it is possible for customers to pay with Bitcoin. Then the opposite happens. In the tweet, the 'Dogefather' said that Tesla no longer accepts Bitcoin as a means of payment. The reason for this is that mining Bitcoin is too polluting for the environment, according to Musk. This resulted in a price drop of Bitcoin.

    The psychological consequences for investors after a price drop

    Why is the crypto market reacting so strongly to these news reports and social media content? Let's first distinguish different types of investors within the crypto world. To date, there is a relatively small diversity of investors within the crypto world compared to traditional investors.

    The different types of investors explained are the early adopters, institutional investors and the lazy investors. The market cycle is then discussed and finally, the psychological consequences of a price drop are explained.

    Types of investors

    You have the early adopters, these investors got in early and know the ropes. The large price fluctuations are nothing new and the early adopters are not impressed. These investors are usually steadfast with a strong belief in the product, after all they were one of the first to get in for a reason.

    In recent years there has been an influx of institutional money. This means that investment funds, investment companies and banks are entering the market, as well as leading companies such as PayPal and Google.

    This is a change from the bull run in 2017 where the increase was mainly driven by retail investors. These new entrants have a strong capital which drives the price of cryptocurrency further up.

    Finally, there are lazy investors. These are investors who want to quickly profit from the success of the rising cryptocurrency. They step in on the advice of someone from their social circle in an upward trend. This is called the FOMO phenomenon.

    The fear of missing out takes over from rational thinking and people step in blind. These investors have done little to no analysis and are in it for the money, limiting their crypto knowledge: There is too little knowledge about technological developments, BTC price history and an investment strategy is unknown to them

    Little diversity

    A consequence of this small diversity of investors is that the chance that they use the same investment strategy increases. The investors in the crypto market tend to follow a large group (r/CryptoCurrency) and therefore also use the same decision strategy. This increases the volatility within the crypto market. When fear reigns, the investment strategy is forgotten. Potential gains evaporate and losses are taken (buy high, sell low).

    The market cycle

    A market cycle is the movement within the market with psychological causes. The different motivations within the cycle can be seen in the following figure. The upward movement is mainly driven by enthusiasm, FOMO and following other investors.

    Greed and faith play an important role in this. Rational thinking turns into irrational thinking. An overconfidence bias arises, which means that you have too much faith in the choices you have made. Risks are lost sight of and making a loss seems impossible at this stage.

    Then, when prices start to fall, greed gives way to fear, denial and panic. Moreover, the ego gets a bang because the big drop shows that your judgment was not as good as you thought.

    https://preview.redd.it/4saxsfwyu9i71.jpg?width=816&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2299b78eb6eb69210ddf8eec045f9b692c1e973

    The psychological effects of a price drop

    The crypto world lacks objective information and this results in uncertainty. There are no annual reports available as is the case on the stock exchange. In the crypto world, the value is determined by supply and demand, potential, the development team, speculations, social media and news reports.

    Moreover, many projects are still in the start-up phase where ideas are fully developed. Bad or good news can therefore do a lot to the value of a price, let alone the opinion of a very influential person involved in a tweet (Elon Musk).

    This can make the price rise tens of percent but just as easily as dropping like a brick. Early adopters are less impressed by this. But the unwitting investor develops fear which can result in a wave of sell orders. This is where the wheat is separated from the chaff. Another example is the Chinese news item mentioned earlier in this article, a similar message also came out in 2017 and 2013.

    Cognitive dissonance

    Cognitive dissonance is an unpleasant feeling that arises when making choices. Nobody likes to make the wrong choice. And certainly not when money is at stake. For example, when you purchase a cryptocurrency, you will convince yourself that this is the right choice. After all, you want to keep the good feeling and not regret your purchase. You adjust your attitude, behavior or your thoughts to avoid the bad feeling.

    You look for messages and sounds to confirm the good feeling. To avoid the bad feeling after a purchase, investors tend to herd and look for confirmation. Because if everyone else does it, then it must be good right?

    If we look at the negative tweet from Elon Musk, we see this happening. One negative tweet from a person highly regarded in the investment world resulting in a whole bunch of people wanting to sell their crypto.

    It seems that all these investors have blind faith in Musk and are willing to sell their crypto without a long reflection. This is due to the previously mentioned lack of knowledge and experience of investors.

    The influence of social media on the course

    Herd behavior is a fertile ground for the emergence of hypes. The crypto world is an example of this, but also think of the internet bubble or the housing market bubble. The internet and social media amplify herd behavior through the enormous reach, especially of influential people with millions of followers.

    A tweet with a maximum of 280 words can shake the entire crypto world to its foundations. For example, Mr. Musk has influenced the market several times in both a positive and negative sense. The question that arises from this is why would he do this?

    The reason he is trying to push the price up seems simple, more profit for Elon. But why would Musk want his investments to be worth less? And then buy cheaper again? Elon Musk knows the market like no other, he knows when he expresses himself negatively that a large herd follows his 'advice', causing the price to fall.

    When investors panic, it ignites other investors and investor behavior becomes predictable. This is precisely where opportunities lie for investors who keep their cool and do the opposite of the herd.

    Invest when no one dares. Don't be fooled by whales. But remember if you buy then someone else sells but for what reason? Enough profit? No more confidence? Behind the purchase and sale of this transaction is a motivation, a train of thought.

    We are looking for confirmation

    Social media is also a place where investors look for confirmation (social proof), especially with existing algorithms on social media, you will be linked to like-minded people. A danger of this is that tunnel vision arises because you are only looking for confirmation.

    The positives stand out but the negatives of the investment are ignored. The right and above all diverse sources of information help to prevent tunnel vision. This phenomenon is called confirmation bias.

    Another danger of social media is repetitive and simple information, which sticks in your memory better than complicated white papers. In addition, the search for confirmation is reinforced on certain forums, communities and Facebook groups.

    Conclusion

    Social media and news channels amplify fear and uncertainty among investors, especially inexperienced and ignorant investors. This group is more sensitive to reports than other investors such as the early adopters. Media platform forums increase the herd behavior and irrational thinking of investors during a price drop. A number of psychological consequences follow from this:

    • Tunnel vision
    • Herd Behavior
    • Social proof
    • The same decision moments
    • Panic Selling & Growing Uncertainty
    • Confirmation bias
    • Anchoring heuristic

    A cocktail of these consequences results in high volatility within the crypto market. If negative sentiment takes over, the price could decline and could end in a bear market. It is striking that after such big correction as the we saw this year, large numbers of crypto are often purchased by the so-called whales, early adopters and other parties, which gives the price a small boost. It may go against your logic to invest in a downtrend. But making money succeeds where others panic. If the majority of people sell, then there are opportunities there for the calm investor.

    submitted by /u/Fantastic-Cucumber-1
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    Worldwide adoption of crypto has increased 880% since 2020

    Posted: 19 Aug 2021 02:14 AM PDT

    Worldwide adoption of crypto has increased 880% since 2020

    A recent post of mine discussed the geographical distribution of crypto usage (Link). I'm now able to update this data for Jan 2021-July 2021.

    Geographical Distribution

    Global Crypto Adoption Index. Data = Jan 2021-Jul 2021. Source: Chainalysis. CAI is based on five metrics: (i) on-chain value received (ii) on-chain retail value received (iii) number of on-chain deposits (iv) P2P exchange trade volume (v) local exchange trade volume.

    This map shows the crypto adoption index (CAI). It's a score between 0-1 that is based upon the level of crypto-related activity within each nation.

    Since Q3 2019, the sum of all raw CAI values across the world has increased 2300% - and 881% since June 2020. This is being driven, predominately, by a surge in P2P exchange activity i.e. ordinary folks trading and using crypto.

    The Top 20:

    Nation (2021 Rankings) Change Relative to 2020
    Vietnam +10
    India +10
    Pakistan +12
    Ukraine -4
    Kenya 0
    Nigeria +2
    Venezuela -4
    United States -2
    Togo +65
    Argentina +18
    Colombia -2
    Thailand 0
    China -11
    Brazil -1
    Philippines +1
    South Africa -9
    Ghana +10
    Russia -15
    Tanzania New Entry
    Afghanistan +121*

    \Data was collected prior to US withdrawal)

    From the Top 20, we have lost the United Kingdom, South Korea, Peru, Belarus and Australia and gained Togo, Tanzania, Argentina and Afghanistan.

    Takehome message/TLDR: we're seeing a rapid uptake of crypto within poorer nations but crypto is booming everywhere regardless.

    submitted by /u/Zarkorix
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