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    [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, April 22, 2021 Bitcoin Markets

    April 22, 2021

    [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, April 22, 2021 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, April 22, 2021

    Posted: 21 Apr 2021 09:00 PM PDT

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    Some thoughts about short, medium, and long term development

    Posted: 22 Apr 2021 04:31 AM PDT

    Hi, here are some thoughts.

    Regarding overall ATH and the PI cycle, I would say it is bullshit. You should not trust it. It has three numerical parameters (350, 100, and 2) and it could fit 3 points. It is clear that in most cases you can fit 3 points with 3 parameters. In fact, you give me any other 3 points and I can most probably construct an indicator with 3 parameters that matches it.
    Thing is though, that these parameters are somewhat realistic, so it is not out of the blue to consider something similar. The stress is on *something similar*. Many other indicators could work and produce the same ,,prediction''.

    The fact that now we have a local top seems to follow from a coincidence of multiple reasons.

    1. We had slowing down momentum anyways.

    2. Too much hype around COINBASE listing, and the usual disappointment afterwards.

    3. The chinese blackout.

    All of these reasons contributed.

    My suggestions and ideas:
    Stay calm, more is to come. I think that Technical Analysis is very often just hocus pocus. However, some ingredients could be trusted. Going below certain moving averages IS a big psychological red sign for many traders. Inflow is not abundant now, and then people will just go short. Going below the 50day MA, touching the 1T market cap, approaching 50K, these are bad signs for medium term price action. I think we should not expect a quick recovery now. This will go down more.

    I can not predict whether we will bounce back from 50K or go below. But I think that we will not stop around 53K and the 50K will be tested. I think we can not know more at the present time.

    I understand that many many global indicators show the bull cycle is intact. I also think that this is not yet over. We can not call the end of the bull cycle, after just 5 days of crazy action. We would need much much more than that.

    If anything, new investors will be encouraged by a drop of 20-30%, if we establish a bottom there.

    In the medium term we should also look out for developments in the stock market. The S&P 500 seems overvalued and stressed. A correction of 10% is likely within a couple of weeks. That could drag BTC down a bit more. So I am bearish for the short and medium term PA (meaning 2-3 weeks, maybe even 2 months).

    ---

    I was wondering how this cycle could be different from other cycles. It is clear that there will be a difference. Going to different orders of magnitudes, you can not expect that the same thing will happen. For example, the next cycle will certainly not see that same PA as this cycle. Right now we are around the magnitude of the market cap of silver. So even if we go towards GOLD, there are no new magnitudes to explore. You can not expect to go to ten times the value of Gold. It is complete nonsense. So even if we reach some BTC price of 100K or even 500K or similar, the path towards it can be really different from other cycles. Simply the available room above our heads is limited. You will not grow exponentially when there is a realistic ceiling above your head.

    I understand that the market cap is not a good measure. I think the realized market cap is a good measure. Right now it still shows inflow of money, which is good. The first real bearish sign would be if we see even a slight decline in this measure within 2-3 weeks. That would be a serious problem. A slowing down does not mean much. So I really suggest to look for this quantity.

    An other thing to consider is that we might not have a blow off top this time. Now that the whole world is watching, BTC is on the brink of becoming mainstream, the dynamics could be fundamentally different. Expecting a parabolic rise and a blow off top is a good theory, but I would not count on it.

    The other thing is that now so many people are expecting a crypto winter, and a subsequent rise, that I think the winter will be less harsh, and the rise afterwards also less intense. The more people expect something, the less likely it will go as expected. I suspect that BTC will stay with us, I suspect that a winter and one more cycle will come, but less dramatic.

    The only thing which could make things go to extremes is a wide ban on crypto. I think we are not going in this direction, but this could change in the future. Thinking about the years ahead, international tensions, unexpected developments can have an effect on the ideas of governments about crypto. If hard bans start to emerge, then the winter will be cold again. We need mainstream adoption for these prices to be sustainable.

    submitted by /u/pozsi
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    Auto bot battle on dogecoin his to win

    Posted: 22 Apr 2021 09:15 AM PDT

    Need help!! BTC SCAM or just a lucky Giveaway?

    Posted: 21 Apr 2021 02:17 PM PDT

    I need help, recently my brother got this message on discord and logged in with a "promo" code onto this site: https://changebitc.com/ I am wondering if this site is legit and if the BTCs are real?

    The site support tells me I cant withdraw BTCs until I deposit at least 0.01 BTC (around 550$) which sounds really shady to me. Did anyone get a message similar to this? Any kind of info will help.

    I uploaded all the pictures to Imgur, here is the link: https://imgur.com/a/EA7oaz4

    submitted by /u/mdR1337
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