[Daily Discussion] - Monday, January 04, 2021 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] - Monday, January 04, 2021
- Moon Math Update: cycling through time
- Is there a way of tracking institutional BTC accumulation?
- Bitcoins Endgame
- Bitcoin Parabolic Price Rise and Crash History – Plus the next 10X move up
- Discreet notification app (uses the pro CoinMarketCap.com API) - A good tool to have along other crypto helpers
- Exchange reserves (amount of BTC parked on exchanges) are at a low. What's your take?
- How to sort TradingView watchlist by the time a ticker was added?
| [Daily Discussion] - Monday, January 04, 2021 Posted: 03 Jan 2021 09:00 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| Moon Math Update: cycling through time Posted: 03 Jan 2021 12:53 PM PST This market is unreasonable.It's worth remembering where we were In the first week of 2017. Bitcoin was ascending, but only to the ATH and then bouncing off it for a 40% correction. Bitcoin wasn't making a new ATH, and significant market pressure kept it from even approaching that. The entire month of January 2017 was a compromise; the remaining month clawing, slowly, back to the ATH. The first ATH in 3 years was set in the middle of February, and through that period many people in this subreddit did not believe bitcoin would ever recover. 6 weeks of extreme volatility for a new ATH that triggered yet another 40% correction. The bull we're seeing today didn't emerge in 2017 until the middle of April that year. 7 weeks of relentless bull PA saw the price of bitcoin more than double before the price retraced 40%, again, over 5 weeks. We keep looking at PA and expecting a painful retrace because that's what bitcoin has always done in the past. Bitcoin will retrace. We do not know when or how and we are past due. The big one will come. We should expect several of them. It's also possible that the ceiling on this is higher than any of us is willing to say. No sleep until 50k. Where Pull Back?We should see a pull back here, and we're just not. I see hammers forming all the way down, and we're already headed back up over 33k as I write this. Bitcoin should pull back, and it just isn't doing that. Supply is gone. I can point to some places like this, and I will. 2012 Bull Run: Round 1https://www.tradingview.com/x/iY3VNpsT/ Supply dries up and serious money starts flowing into Bitcoin for the first time. Previously, Not even drug dealers were aware of bitcoin. The community is a wreck and unprepared. Supply just isn't there, and silk road is on fire. 2013 Bull Run: Round 2https://www.tradingview.com/x/qurPPRxj/ Silk road is destroyed and brief panic tanks the market. Supply is bought back up almost immediately and early investors realize that bitcoin is being used for more than drugs and human trafficking online. Willy bot pushes Bitcoin to new highs. China FUD and MtGox being absolute shit are real, but not generally known or accepted. 2016 Bull Run: Round 3https://www.tradingview.com/x/mKGcYAho/ Altcoins develop inflated value and rush into bitcoin, pumping the price as a safe haven from artificially high valuations for ridiculous projects. Each round of altcoin pump and dumps pushes bitcoin to new heights. Nobody is really able to see the impact that alts are playing in the market, but BTCs limited supply and recent halving make it a place to escape to when dumping digital assets. Altcoiners believe that if they trade into bitcoin then they don't have to pay taxes on the trade. People do debate if alt sales are going into BTC or cash. 2017 Bull Run: Round 4https://www.tradingview.com/x/XBBn4Uev/ Decentralized and international exchanges allow speculation on altcoins to get out of hand. Coinbase isn't able to function under the load for sign up requests and regularly goes down when trading volume is high. Gemini is announced. ETF rumors abound (obviously, it never happens). So what?Bull markets are becoming more condensed and sell-offs shorter and of smaller magnitude. It's possible that we're not going to see sustained pullback for months, if at all in 2021. here's what I mean: Round 1 & 2 combined: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pkx7vcjy/ Round 3 & 4 combined (without retraces): https://www.tradingview.com/x/BFoBuJaf/ Irresponsible speculation, because we all just can't wait. Precious MetalsBTC Progress vs precious metals market cap.Up Close: https://www.tradingview.com/x/T9WnUlGl/ Zoomed out: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xK9yHtRL/ Prior BubblesHalving to peak: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HzbWjlfI/ Low to high: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HgVK8Ufy/ Combined: https://www.tradingview.com/x/s94eiQ7t/ Good hunting [link] [comments]  |
| Is there a way of tracking institutional BTC accumulation? Posted: 04 Jan 2021 05:12 AM PST As we all know institutions are buying in, but is there a way of tracking just how much they're buying, and the rate at which they're buying? I saw this page (https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale) that shows how many coins Grayscale has, but I can't find the source for the data. Is the Grayscale BTC address public knowledge? The same goes for PayPal and Square and any other big institutional BTC buyers. Is there a way to track how much BTC they own and are buying? A quick google turned up nothing useful. For context, I was thinking that if I could track the rate of change of institutional buying (e.g. in terms of bought BTC per week), then a drop off in this rate might be flag that we are nearing the end of this bull run. I don't expect it to be this week or next, more like at the very earliest May/June, but it's something I'd like to keep an eye on. Hence if anyone knows how to track the increase in BTC holdings of these large companies, I'd be very grateful for any tips. Thanks! [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2021 04:02 PM PST What do you think about Bitcoins endgame price? Is it really only $500k - $1M a coin like most predictions say? Considering the price is already at $33k, is all we have left a 15-30x at best? If adoption continues and even central banks were to buy in eventually (doesn't sound as unrealistic as it used to be) wouldn't the price go way higher than $1M/BTC? [link] [comments]  |
| Bitcoin Parabolic Price Rise and Crash History – Plus the next 10X move up Posted: 03 Jan 2021 07:52 PM PST Looking at the technical analysis of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) over time and its history of making parabolic price movements I've come up with a very interesting and specific bitcoin price forecast for 2021-2023 based on all of its historical parabolic movements. Here's a Bitcoin Parabolic Chart from 2017 that helps you see the parabolic movements visually: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KC2hlEw7-Parabolic-Curve-Bitcoin/ Given all of the new all time highs set by bitcoin in the past, they are almost always followed by a swift 30% decline in the price of bitcoin before the bearish selling momentum turns back to bullish buying again. Given the new ATH $35,000 bitcoin price, a 30% decline of $11,500 will soon bring the bitcoin price back down to ($23,500-$24,000) $24,000 is also a key resistance level above $20K that needs to be retested both technically & psychologically. Bitcoin will need to survive the $24K level crash to form a new base bottom before the next big move of BTC price can move up 10X. When looking at the 10X run in 2014 from $120 to $1,200, immediately following the 10X move up BTC price gave back 83% of its value crashing back down to $200 in 2015. 2017 saw Bitcoin go from $1,100 to $19,600 - before giving up 84% to $3150 in 2018. So, now that the shorts have been squeezed and the mania has peaked brining BTC to the recent parabolic move to $35,000, selling has already begun and the move down to $24,000 is under way now. IF bitcoin can survive the crash to $24,000 throughout trading levels in 2021 and find a bottom for itself at the $24,000 base price in 2021 then it could begin its next parabolic move of 10X up to potentially $240,000 by the end of 2023. That is the best case scenario in my analysis. However, If Bitcoin can not find a itself a new base at $24,000, then a second crash will cause the bitcoin price to then retest the $20,000 level. If that $20,000 bitcoin price fails, a swift ~33% crash would take bitcoin back down to a very solid $12,000 resistance level. There's still a fairly realistic chance that Bitcoin gives up nearly 84 % AGAIN like IT DID in after BOTH of the last 2 major parabolic moves up. It gave up 84% in the 2018 crash after the 2017 ATH $19,600 which crashed all the way down to $3,150, just like it gave up 84% of its value from $1,200 to $200. So... in 2020 Bitcoin rose ~10X from $3100 to $30,000. Could yet another 84% crash happen for a three peat? In that ultimate worst case 84% loss scenario that we've seen happen after both of the last two 10X+ moves, Bitcoin would bottom around $5,520 after a third 84% crash. In that case, a 10X move up would take bitcoin to $55,200 by the end of 2023. So what do you all think? Is a bitcoin price crash to $24,000 going to be the next big parabolic price movement? What do you think the price will likely be by the end of 2023? $55,200 or $240,000? or something else altogether and why? Hopefully it will find good support at $24,000 and go back up, however, Time alone will tell ... Congrats to all the hodlers but don't get greedy ;) Disclaimer: I'm short Bitcoin - short BTC and will be looking for a swift drop to $24,000 This is a copy of my bitcoin parabolic curve analysis post on TrustGeeky: [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2021 04:15 AM PST CMC Alert is design to keep the users informed about different crypto stats and to see the price alerts - all in a simple way.
The app is using the official PRO API from CoinMarketCap.com, and here is why you should at least try it:
Here is the Google Play link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.companyname.CMCAlert , and a demo screenshot: [https://imgur.com/a/0Vwc80x] Cheers! [link] [comments]  |
| Exchange reserves (amount of BTC parked on exchanges) are at a low. What's your take? Posted: 03 Jan 2021 12:50 PM PST Like the title says, exchanges have less and less BTC parked. Here is a graph from cryptoquant. This is a bullish sign as it indicates that less BTC is read to be sold. However, I have absolutely no idea WHY that would be the case. Can you elucidate what the reason could be that investors are pulling out their BTC? [link] [comments]  |
| How to sort TradingView watchlist by the time a ticker was added? Posted: 04 Jan 2021 12:37 AM PST I had my tradingview watchlist sorted by the time a ticker was added for most of the time and got used to it to find anything i want fast. The other day I sorted by daily % change and found out that there is no obvious way to sort them back the way they originally were, by the time a ticker was added. So is there a way to return them to that sorting or that's it? [link] [comments]  |
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