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    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - December 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    December 09, 2020

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - December 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Daily Discussion - December 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 04:10 PM PST

    Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

    Disclaimer:

    Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

    Rules:

    • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
    • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
    • Comments will be sorted by newest first.

    To see prior Skeptics Discussions, click here.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Someone Sent $166 Million in Bitcoin for Just $1.25 in Fees

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 02:58 PM PST

    Bitcoin Has Now Spent Nine Days On Top $18k. This Is The Longest In Its History

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 09:28 AM PST

    Bitcoin Has Now Spent Nine Days On Top $18k. This Is The Longest In Its History

    Just a piece of data for any who is bullish on Bitcoin.

    Source: Coinfomania

    These are fascinating times for Bitcoin prices.

    We've never had the leading cryptocurrency trade for this long at these levels.

    Think about it. Traders will use the price movement we see in these last few days in the years ahead to draw their charts and decide what the market would do next.

    I picked out this one because of its beauty and how it is pointing to the fact that Bitcoin is becoming less volatile.

    The first stint above $18,000 barely lasted for a day and the second was already over in less than 72 hours. The last two cycles above $18,000 have happened in the current bullish market cycle, and I hope it doesn't break before I post this (lol).

    Either way, it has been an interesting ride, and we all will be closely watching for what comes next.

    With all the institutional involvement we've had this year and PayPal's involvement, one can't help but be bullish about Bitcoin going into the new year.

    And no, I'm not going to end this post by making any wild predictions or say we're never going to see $10k Bitcoin again.

    I'm just going to sit and enjoy the ride and hope you guys would all do the same.

    submitted by /u/wmredditor
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    I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov Update - Month 35)

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 08:04 AM PST

    I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov Update - Month 35)

    ​

    EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month Thirty-Four - Down -56%

    The full blog post with all the tables is here.

    tl;dr

    • MOON USE CASE: In honor of the US Elections in November, I've hidden some presidential links in the post. I'll give the first person to name the three presidents AND the actors who impersonated them some moons.
    • What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2019 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
    • November - XRP and XLM put on a show, stocks had a good month, but nowhere near the crypto's performance.
    • Overall since Jan. 2018 - Bitcoin still far ahead, now ETH is approaching its break even point.
    • Combining all three three years, Top Ten Crypto Portfolio strategy handily outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach and $100 into BTC three years ago is finally worth more than $100 into S&P.

    Month Thirty Five – Down 56%

    2018 Top Ten Summary - Still only BTC in green

    Whew, quite a month for crypto. After a modest October, the cryptocurrency market took off in November, and took off bigly. Although Bitcoin received much of the press, BTC was outperformed by most of its 2018 Top Ten Portfolio peers this month.

    Taking a look at the 2018 Experiment as a whole, after 35 months, Bitcoin remains the only crypto in the green. It is now +48% since January 1st, 2018 and is returning more than the S&P 500 over the same time period (much more on that below). Ethereum is coming up fast to the break even point as well, now down only -16% since the beginning of the experiment.

    Question of the month:

    Which crypto was ahead after the first year of the 2018 Top Ten Cryptocurrency Index Fund Experiment?

    A) Bitcoin

    B) Ethereum

    C) Stellar

    D) XRP

    Scroll down for the answer.

    Ranking and November Winners and Losers

    2018 Top Ten Rank

    Lots of movement in November: except for BTC and ETH, everyone changed rank. And mostly positive changes for this group of older coins: besides one place slips from both IOTA and Bitcoin Cash, the rest of the movement was upward and solidly so.

    XRP, ADA, LTC, NEM, Dash, and Stellar all advanced in the rankings. The highest climbers this month? Stellar climbed an impressive six spots from #17 to #11 and is once again knocking on the door of the Top Ten. With little media attention Dash quietly had a great month, also gaining five spots from #30 to #25. And NEM gained five places and regained a spot in the Top Twenty moving from #24 to #19.

    PSA for the other NEM hodlers who might be out there somewhere in the universe: there's a NEM Airdrop coming, which may have something to do with recent positive price action and rank movement. XEM holders will get 1:1 Symbol (XYM) in January 2021.

    Back to our regularly scheduled program…

    Drop outs: After thirty-five months of this experiment 40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, LINK, and most recently, DOT.

    November Winners – XRP easily outperformed its 2018 Top Ten peers, finishing the month +175% and wrestling the #3 position away from Tether.

    I was curious last time XRP had such a good year, so I went back through three years of data for you, dear reader. When was the last time in the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment XRP had such a good month?

    Never.

    The closest it got to November 2020's outsized gains was when it finished +65% in September of 2018, over two years ago.

    Stellar was on fire as well, up +156% and nearly breaking back into the Top Ten.

    November Losers – BCH was up +18% for the month, making it the worst performing crypto of the group by far. A bit of a tough luck loss for Bitcoin Cash, but it simply couldn't keep up with the rest of the field. Second worst performing was IOTA (+39%) followed by Bitcoin at +43%

    For the overly competitive nerds, below is a tally of the winners of the first 35 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (9) and Cardano in second place with 6 monthly wins. NEM has lost 8 months, the most out of this group.

    Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn't lost a month yet since January 2018.

    2018 Top Ten Monthly Ws/Ls

    Overall update – BTC returns surpass S&P, ETH in distant second, portfolio nears -50%, IOTA in last place.

    It's taken nearly three years, but it's happened: for the first time since the Top Ten Experiment began, I can report that putting $100 into Bitcoin on January 1st, 2018 has returned more than the US stock market as measured by the S&P 500. After finally breaking even in October (BTC ended October +4%, the first time it finished in positive territory), it significantly increased its gains in November, ending the +48%. While this monthly performance failed to keep up with the rest of the 2018 Top Ten in November, it was more than enough to surpass the gains of the S&P, which is up +35% over the same time period.

    To sum up: $100 into Bitcoin on January 1st, 2018 is currently worth $148 compared to $135 had it been redirected to the S&P on New Year's Day, 2018.

    ETH is still a distant second place, but made significant gains in November and is within striking distance of the break even point, now down only -16% since January 2018.

    The 2018 Top Ten portfolio as a whole? Down -56%. If you're just finding these posts now, that sounds horrible, but actually represents the highest point since May 2018. More details and a summary table below.

    Thanks to a strong month, Dash has narrowly escaped the bottom, replaced by IOTA which has lost -90%. The initial $100 invested in IOTA 35 months ago is worth $9.74 today.

    Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

    2018 Market Cap - finally higher than when it started 35 months ago

    Another first for the 2018 Top Ten portfolio: after gaining a massive $182B in November, the overall crypto market is now at a higher level than when the Experiment started nearly three years ago. It's only up +1% but definitely a milestone. It's been a tough road back though: you get a pretty good sense of the journey by looking at the table above.

    Bitcoin dominance:

    2018 Bit Dom tracking

    After a big leap last month, BitDom fell about one percentage point in November, signaling altcoin gains. For context, BitDom was 68% earlier in the year and since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

    Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:

    2018 Top Ten ROI

    The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $171 bucks in November and is getting tantalizingly close to the halfway back point. If I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $435, down -56% from January 2018.

    For newcomers, welcome.

    Also, yes, being down -56% on crypto in nearly three years sounds bad (and it is), but for some perspective it might be helpful to take a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:

    2018 Top Ten Monthly ROI

    Looking at the table, you can see that returns are trending in a positive direction and -56% is a level that hasn't been seen since May 2018. The absolute worst month to hold the 2018 Top Ten? Back in January 2019 when it was down -88%.

    So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -56%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Enough beating around the bush, let's take a look:

    So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line:

    After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭5,154‬ ($435+ $2,432 +$2,287).

    That's up about +72% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +18% just last month.

    Not a bad month for the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments!

    Here's a table to help visualize:

    Combined Three Year Top Ten ROI

    That's a +72% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years.

    But surely I would have done even better if I went all in on one crypto, right?

    Let's take a look. Only five cryptos have begun each of the last three years in the Top Ten: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Which one wins?

    Three Year Club

    Ethereum. Going all in on ETH with $3,000 USD (dropped in $1k chunks on January 1st three times in a row since New Year's Day 2018) I would be up +237%, turning that $3k into over $10k. Going all in on Bitcoin would have yielded +216%.

    At this point in the Experiment, each individual crypto has outperformed the +72% gains of the Top Ten Index Fund approach except BCH which is only up +19%.

    Comparison to S&P 500:

    I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Despite all the chaos of the US elections, the S&P 500 Index rallied significantly and set a new all time high this month: it ended November up +35% since January 2018.

    Monthly S&P since Jan. 2018

    The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1350 had it been redirected to the S&P.

    But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I've been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:

    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1350 today
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1440 today
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1120 today

    Taken together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:

    After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,910.

    That is up +30% since January 2018 compared to a +72% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.

    You can compare against five individual coins (BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC) by using the table above if you want. The key takeaway? The S&P 500 is currently underperforming the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio each of the cryptos in the Three Year Club except for Bitcoin Cash.

    Here's a table summarizing the three year ROI comparison between crypto and S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:

    Combined 3-year ROI vs. S&P

    That's seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. four monthly victories for crypto in 2020.

    But crypto has held the momentum in the second half of the year and has opened up the largest gap of the Experiment so far: an impressive +42% difference in November, even as stocks saw all time highs.

    Conclusion:

    Despite US election confusion and an explosion of new COVID cases in November, both traditional and crypto markets had a strong month. Bitcoin received the most attention, but alts did very well too, even some of the more established cryptos that make up the 2018 Top Ten portfolio. One more month to go in 2020. Are we in for a bit of a correction or can crypto climb higher before year's end? Stay tuned.

    Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you've found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

    And the Answer is…

    C) Stellar

    After the first 12 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment, XLM was firmly in the lead, down "only" -66%. Bitcoin was in second place, down -71% after year one.

    submitted by /u/Joe-M-4
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    18 months ago, this wealth manager told investors not to buy bitcoin at $5k as it was going to collapse. I wonder how his clients feel now?

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 04:17 PM PST

    Bitcoin Darknet 'Silk Road' Movie Acquired by Lionsgate to Premiere in February

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 05:04 AM PST

    If I had just kept all my Bitcoin instead of diversifying into altcoins I would have 55% greater portfolio value

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 11:27 AM PST

    As of three years to the date I am down 55% of what I could have had if I had not bought altcoins with my Bitcoin. I say this as a reminder to any newcomers to the space who may make the same potential mistakes that I have made. If you are someone new to cryptocurrencies and do not have a high tolerance for risk and loss, Bitcoin is still the winning horse and everything points towards that trend to continue. If you still want to try your hand at riskier projects I strongly encourage you to keep a minimum of 50% portfolio in Bitcoin. For anybody wishing to comment on this post please be reminded that I am not comparing the merit of Bitcoin to any other project, I am only stating it's historical performance during the past three years. I understand that some people don't like Bitcoin and that's fine. I also understand that some projects may outperform Bitcoin over the coming three years, that's fine too, there is certainly a chance.

    submitted by /u/kaosskris
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    Hundreds of millions of consumers will use digital currencies soon: Circle CEO

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 08:27 PM PST

    If you have more than 100 UNI in your wallet, then you have a $200 Christmas present!

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 03:02 AM PST

    November 2020 CoinGecko Monthly Crypto Report

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 02:29 AM PST

    Wells Fargo published a seven-page investment report devoting a full page to bitcoin: “Cryptocurrency investing is a bit like living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush. As we roll into 2021, we’ll be discussing the digital-asset space more – its upside and downside.”

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 08:31 AM PST

    Ray Dalio Calls Bitcoin 'Interesting' Alternative to Gold

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 05:42 PM PST

    Nobody else seems to be talking about how crazy the BTC-e scandal was

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 05:31 AM PST

    Has anyone read any of the coverage on this story? Alexandr Vinnik was jailed recently laundering $4 billion worth of BTC, and that made headlines pretty much everywhere, but none of these outlets are getting into the paramilitaries or oligarchs or any of that stuff. Most of that BTC came from Mt. Gox (!) and that's rarely mentioned. They're making out like Vinnik was just some money guy who broke the rules.

    Apparently the Ukranian separatists who shot down Malaysian Flight 17 and killed like 300 people bought BTC-e when Vinnik got arrested, so they were already involved somehow. The current "owner" (the new version of the BTC-e exchange is down now, exit scam) is literally the guy handing over the black box from the crashed plane in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdxYmDOe7vE&feature=emb_title&ab_channel=LastNews.

    They're all paramilitary fighters/terrorists/whatever. They were funded by this war-mongering oligarch sanctioned by the EU for terrorism in Donbass.

    And then there's all the shit Vinnik got up to when he was active. He ended up wanted in three countries, he went on hunger strike, it seems like Russia literally invented charges just to file extradition claims so the US couldn't interrogate him for his involvement in the attacks on the Democratic National Committee.

    Seriously, what the fuck is this story?

    https://cryptobriefing.com/btc-e-saga-ends-prison-time-

    founder/https://www.rbc.ru/magazine/2018/01/5a2f1e0d9a7947f2b3ae49dc

    Why is everyone just talking about the money laundering and not the completely insane criminal cartel that seems to be running the whole show?

    submitted by /u/ChuckieOrLaw
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    Citi downgrades MicroStrategy stock after bold Bitcoin bet

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 12:41 PM PST

    France is on the verge of imposing mandatory KYC rules for all crypto transactions, industry sources say

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 12:24 PM PST

    S&P Global set to launch world's first cryptocurrency index

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 04:57 PM PST

    Mt. Gox Users Prepare to Get Back $2.6 Billion of Bitcoin..

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 11:15 AM PST

    Bitcoin: A Conversation Among Peers

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 05:02 AM PST

    Ray Dalio in his Reddit AMA today: “Bitcoin has established itself as a gold-like asset”

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 02:37 PM PST

    "I think that bitcoin (and some other digital currencies) have over the last ten years established themselves as interesting gold-like asset alternatives, with similarities and differences to gold and other limited-supply, mobile (unlike real estate) storeholds of wealth. So it could serve as a diversifier to gold and other such storehold of wealth assets. The main thing is to have some of these type of assets (with limited supply, that are mobile, and that are storeholds of wealth), including stocks, in one's portfolio and to diversify among them. Not enough people do that. As far bitcoin relative to gold, I have a strong preference for holding those things which central banks are going to want to hold and exchange value in when they are trying to transact."

    Link to the comment

    submitted by /u/dannydorrito
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    One of the World’s Oldest Banks Is Issuing a Euro Stablecoin on Stellar

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 05:34 AM PST

    Size of blockchain of some of the most popular cryptocurrencies

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 04:56 AM PST

    • Tether 388.91GB
    • Bitcoin's 313.4GB
    • Bitcoin Cash 140.5GB
    • Ethereum's 107GB
    • Monero 63.75GB
    • Dogecoin 48.55 GB
    • Litecoin 37.31GB
    • Dash 24.13 GB
    • Cardano 6.9GB
    • Nano 30GB (thanks to u/Fhelans for the correction)
    • Ripple works a little bit different. It doesn't use blockchain but uses a distributed consensus ledger using a network of validating servers and crypto tokens called XRP

    ​

    For some newbies which maybe don't know. The blockchain size depends on the number of transactions which were made during its existence. Transactions are recorded on blockchain.

    submitted by /u/Roy1984
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    New report suggests that investors are pulling out of gold to buy crypto

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 10:55 PM PST

    Ohio Bill Enabling Blockchain Use by Government Moves to State Senate - Passed the House with Overwhelming Support

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 08:22 AM PST

    Is it too late to apply for Mt Gox funds?

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 09:46 PM PST

    I had btc on Mt Gox. I have my account login/password info from 2012.

    Is it too late to join the legal challenge / distribution?

    I can't find any way of doing that.

    Would anybody know if there's an online form or offline letter/fax or something I can send to verify that I was a Mt. Gox user and to join the upcoming Dec 15 distribution?

    Thanks?

    submitted by /u/berapa
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    Michael Novogratz on CNN "Every Financial Institution Will be Forced Into This Space" - Dec 8 2020

    Posted: 08 Dec 2020 08:50 AM PST

    Another big bank edging closer to a crypto custody offering, Netherlands-based ING, spoke publicly for the first time this week about about its preliminary trials with digital assets.

    Posted: 09 Dec 2020 02:15 AM PST
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