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    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - November 7, 2020 (GMT+0)

    November 07, 2020

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - November 7, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Daily Discussion - November 7, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 04:10 PM PST

    Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

    Disclaimer:

    Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

    Rules:

    • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
    • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
    • Comments will be sorted by newest first.

    To see prior Skeptics Discussions, click here.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Its a real deal

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 12:03 AM PST

    This was the market back in March. Congrats to those with steady hands!

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 01:18 AM PST

    The stock market on meme weekend be like

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 02:15 AM PST

    to the moon baby

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 01:45 AM PST

    Wanna go 5 years back to slap 2015 me

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 12:05 AM PST

    Bitcoin Is Now Bigger Than Bank of America, Netflix, and Shopify

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 04:06 AM PST

    Square Selling Bitcoin Faster Than Can Be Mined, Supply Crisis Incoming?

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 06:28 PM PST

    Meme weekends be like:

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 12:44 AM PST

    Bitcoin price jump mentioned on CNBC's Youtube channel today

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 05:54 PM PST

    Unknown developer runs away with 15 million USD scamming investors, Justin Sun might be involved

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 07:50 PM PST

    Winklevoss Twins Said to Become Billionaires Again on Bitcoin Surge

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 04:32 PM PST

    The Petrodollar Era - What is the Endgame?

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 01:39 AM PST

    After World War II, a new international monetary system called Bretton Woods was created.

    Bretton Woods established three main things:

    (1) the U.S. dollar was to be an international reserve currency,

    (2) the U.S. dollar would be backed by gold at a price of $35 per ounce, and

    (3) any country could exchange dollars for gold.

    ​

    Countries running trade surpluses with the US sought to exchange their dollars for gold, and this rapidly shrunk US gold reserves.

    This then led to the so called Nixon shock - President Richard Nixon effectively ending the Bretton Woods system in 1971.

    The world economy entered a new era: the US Dollar became the global reserve currency.

    ​

    The US made no effort to rein in deficit spending, in fact quite the opposite.

    Therefore, the US needed to continue to find ways to sell government debt (i.e. to find buyers of US Treasury Securities) without driving up interest rates.

    That is, the US needed more buyers for its debt.

    But by 1974, the enormous flood of dollars from the US into top-oil-exporter Saudi Arabia suggested a solution.

    That year, Nixon sent new US Treasury secretary William Simon to Saudi Arabia with a mission...

    The task: neutralize crude oil as an economic weapon against the US and find a way to persuade a relatively hostile kingdom to finance America's widening deficit with its newfound petrodollar wealth.

    ​

    The basic framework was simple: the US would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment.

    In return, the Saudis would plow billions of their petrodollar revenue back into US Treasuries and therefore finance America's spending.

    A win-win: the Saudis would receive protection from geopolitical enemies, and the US would get a new place to unload large amounts of government debt.

    This became known as "petrodollar recycling".

    By spending on oil, the US was creating new demand for US debt and US dollars.

    ​

    Moreover, since Saudi Arabia dominated the OPEC - the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - this dollar deal was extended to OPEC overall, which meant that the dollar became the preferred currency for oil purchases worldwide.

    And so the petrodollar era began.

    This petrodollar system has had massive implications for US foreign policy, which has essentially involved imposing 'freedom' on any major oil-exporting state that moves towards ending its reliance on dollars.

    ​

    In 2000, Saddam Hussein, then-president of Iraq, announced that Iraq was moving to sell its oil in Euros instead of dollars.

    Following a particular catalyst event in 2001, the US invaded Iraq, deposed Saddam Hussein, and converted Iraqi oil sales back to the US dollar.

    Of course, this exact pattern was repeated with Gaddafi when he attempted to create a unified African currency backed by Libyan gold reserves to sell African oil.

    Shortly after his announcement, rebels armed by the US Government and allies overthrew the dictator and his regime.

    After his death, the idea that African oil would be sold on something other than the dollar quickly died out.

    Other regimes that have called for abandoning the petrodollar include Iran and Venezuela.

    The US has called for regime change in both of these countries...

    ​

    Although they have tried to keep it under wraps, Saudi Arabia is believed to be one of America's largest foreign creditors.

    Undoubtedly, Saudi holdings of US debt and other assets are significant.

    All else being equal, the US should be growing less dependent on foreign holders of debt, certainly in terms of Saudi and OPEC-held debt, since the global role of OPEC and the Saudis has been diminishing in terms of global market share.

    But all else isn't equal, and the US has been piling on ever-larger amounts of debt in recent years.

    In 2019, for example, the annual deficit topped one trillion.

    ​

    This immense growth in debt obviously makes the US regime more sensitive to changes in demand for US debt, and ever more reliant on foreign demand for both US debt and US dollars.

    In order to avoid a crisis, the US must ensure that interest rates remain low and that foreigners want to acquire both US dollars and US debt.

    ​

    Were petrodollars and petrodollar recycling to disappear, it would have a twofold effect on US government finances:

    First of all, a sizable decline in petrodollar recycling would put significant upward pressure on interest rates.

    The result would be a budget crisis for the US government, as it would have to devote ever-larger amounts of the federal budget to payments on the debt.

    (The other option would be to have the US central bank monetize the debt by purchasing ever-larger amounts of it to make up for a lack of foreign demand. But this would lead to growing price inflation.)

    Furthermore, if participants began to exit the petrodollar system (and, say, sell oil in euros instead) demand for dollars would drop, exacerbating any scenarios in which the central bank is monetizing the debt.

    This would also generally contribute to greater price inflation, as fewer dollars will be sucked out of the US by foreign holders.

    The result could be ongoing declines in government spending on services, and growing price inflation.

    The US regime's ability to finance its debt would decline significantly, and the US would need to pull back on military commitments, pensions, and more.

    Either that, or keep spending at the same rate and face an inflationary spiral.

    ​

    Or...how about another option?

    Anyone fancy a Great Reset?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjK0nRSUNgU

    ​

    ​

    CREDIT:

    Ryan McMaken

    Huge Debt Got Us Hooked on Petrodollars — and on Saudi Arabia

    submitted by /u/financeoptimum
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    We're all gunna make it (except you BSV)

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 02:06 AM PST

    Should have just bought BTC/ETH

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 01:07 AM PST

    4th isnt bad

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 03:33 AM PST

    I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct Update - Month 34)

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 08:47 AM PST

    I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct Update - Month 34)

    ​

    EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month Thirty-Four - Down -74%

    See the full blog post with all the tables here.

    tl;dr

    • I'll give the first one to find the four hidden cultural references some moons.
    • What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2019 and 2020. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here.
    • October - BTC and Litecoin had a very good month and crypto as a whole did much better than traditional markets.
    • Overall since Jan. 2018 - Bitcoin still far ahead. And, for the first time since I started this experiment back in Jan. 2018, I'm happy to report: BITCOIN HAS BROKEN EVEN!!!
    • Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos is tied with the S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

    Month Thirty Four – Down 74%

    2018 Top Ten Summary for October

    After an all-red September, it's nice to see a bit of green this month. Thanks mainly to Bitcoin, the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio finished October with modest gains overall.

    But, STOP THE PRESS, what is that!??! Green in the "Total % Change" column!?!? Yes indeed: for the first time in 34 monthly updates, I'm happy to announce that BTC ended October worth more than the price I paid for it on the 31st of December, 2017. Although only up +4% overall, it's been a long road: this small 2018 Top Ten victory is to be celebrated.

    Question of the month:

    In October, this global payment service announced it will support cryptocurrency buying, selling, and shopping through its platform.

    A) Paypal

    B) Square

    C) Stripe

    D) Alipay

    Scroll down for the answer.

    Ranking and October Winners and Losers

    Rank of 2018 Portfolio - 40% of cryptos are drop outs

    Not much movement this month, a bit strange for the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio. Only three cryptos shifted positions in October: NEM's Top Twenty hopes seem to be fading fast (it dropped from #22 to #24); XLM picked up one spot (#18 to #17); and, much to the relief of long time crypto-ers with a soft spot for the silver to BTC's gold, Litecoin was able to stop its freefall, rebounding back into the Top Ten nicely, picking up four spots (#12 to #8). Welcome back LTC.

    Drop outs: After thirty-four months of this experiment 40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, LINK, and most recently, DOT.

    October Winners – For the second month in a row, this month's W goes to Bitcoin, up +25% for the month. Litecoin finishes the month in second place, up 17% and climbing back into the Top Ten.

    October Losers – For the second month in a row, this month's L goes to NEM, down -16%. IOTA finished down -11%, the second worst performer of the month.

    For the overly competitive nerds, below is a tally of the winners of the first 34 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (9) and Cardano in second place with 6 monthly wins. With another poor performance in October, NEM now has 8 monthly losses.

    Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn't lost a month yet since January 2018.

    Ws and Ls - One coin to rule them all

    Overall update – BTC far ahead and breaks even, ETH in distant second place. Dash in last place.

    So here we are: point break even. On the 31st of December, 2017, I bought $100 worth of BTC (0.008) at $13,170. Nearly three years later that same 0.008 is worth $13,665. Although only 4%, it's a symbolic victory and one that's been a long time coming. The initial investment of $100 thirty-three months ago is now worth about $83. A distant second place, Ethereum is down -45% since January 2018.

    At this point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, Dash is at the bottom. It has lost -93%. The initial $100 invested in Dash 34 months ago is now worth $6.52.

    The 2018 Portfolio welcomed LTC back Top Ten in October. September 2020 was the first time since I started the experiment back in January 2018 that Litecoin had fallen out of the Top Ten.

    Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

    Total market cap - back over the $400B mark for the first time in over 2.5 years

    The crypto market gained about $50B in finished October over the psychologically important $400B mark, a level we haven't seen since the end of April 2018.

    Bitcoin dominance:

    BitDom - growing

    After a few months of dipping, BitDom shot back up to 63.1% in October. A big move, but for context, it was up over 68% earlier in 2020.

    For even more context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

    Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:

    2018 Top Ten ROI

    The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $25 bucks in October. Despite BTC breaking even, the portfolio overall is still struggling: if I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $264, down -74% from January 2018.

    Down -74% sounds bad (and it is), but the overall direction lately has been encouraging and a nice break from the negative eighties. Here's a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:

    ​

    2018 Top Ten Monthly ROI - Red, red, red

    The absolute bottom was -88% back in January 2019.

    So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -76%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let's take a look:

    So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line:

    After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $‭3,537‬ ($264+ $1,660 +$1,613).

    That's up about +18% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +11% last month.

    Here's a table to help visualize:

    Combined 2018, 2019, 2020 ROI

    That's a +18% (actually +17.9%) gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years.

    But surely you'd do better if you went all in on one crypto, right?

    Depends on your choice. Let's take a look:

    Three year club: BTC and ETH tied

    Only five cryptos have started in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Knowing what we know now, which one would have been best to go all in on?

    As of this month, it's basically a tie between BTC and ETH. Both are up +121%, (although BTC is technically $21 ahead of ETH).

    So: with $3,000 USD, dropped in $1k chunks on January 1st three times in a row since New Year's Day 2018, you would be up +121%, by going all in on either BTC or ETH.

    The worst choice? At this point in the experiment, that would be XRP, down -32%.

    Comparison to S&P 500:

    I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index continued its fall from an all time high in August. It ended October up +22% since January 2018.

    ​

    Monthly S&P since January 2018

    The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1220 had it been redirected to the S&P.

    But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I've been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:

    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1220 today
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1300 today
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1010 today

    Taken together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:

    After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,530.

    That is up +17.6% since January 2018. Compared to a +17.9% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. You can compare against five individual coins (BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC) by using the table above if you want.

    Gentlemen and lady (hello lady, I see you back there) we have a tie.

    Well, not quite a tie, crypto is up .3% so crypto gets the win:

    Three year S&P vs. Top Ten Crypto Experiments Combined ROI

    That's seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. three monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P in June.

    Conclusion:

    October saw a bit of divergence between crypto and the S&P: crypto up, S&P down. That separation is nice to see when it often seems that crypto moves in tandem with traditional markets. Two more months left in the year. What more will 2020 throw at us? And how will crypto and traditional markets respond?

    Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you've found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

    And the Answer is…

    A) Paypal

    Paypal announced in October that it will allow customers to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Customers will also be able to pay with crypto at 26 million merchants on its network starting in early 2021.

    submitted by /u/Joe-M-4
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    Eth2 Dev Update #58 — “Mainnet Announced”

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 04:26 AM PST

    It's that time again

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 01:47 PM PST

    It's that time again when acquaintances, neighbours, relatives, friends of friends, old schoolmate, & colleagues ask you more about bitcoin out of nowhere because of this current price movements.

    Have you received any call/text?

    submitted by /u/alliswell19
    [link] [comments]

    Happy meme day everybody

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 04:54 AM PST

    Saturday mornings on r/cryptocurrency

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 04:52 AM PST

    I-It's gonna dip, right?

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 04:44 AM PST

    NotYourKeys.org - Why self custody is so important.

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 02:54 AM PST

    What is EIP1559, and how it could make ETH deflationary

    Posted: 07 Nov 2020 02:42 AM PST

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGemhK9t44Q

    ​

    For those wondering on how new changes could make eth deflationary this is a great explanation on what is EIP 1559 (proposed by Vitalik) and how it could make eth deflationary in times of network congestion.

    The proposal is to have an elastic base fees which goes up and down based on network activity, and reward miners through only block rewards and small tips. The base fee is burned.

    So in times of heavy network activity base fee prices get raised and more eth is burned. The fee and as a result the burn rate of eth is directly correlated with network activity, which sounds great in theory.

    submitted by /u/rockyrosy
    [link] [comments]

    Legendary investor Bill Miller says bitcoin's resilience 'gets better every day' as demand rapidly exceeds supply

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 04:25 PM PST

    Bizonacci needs to come back for 2020, his videos were a masterpiece

    Posted: 06 Nov 2020 09:47 AM PST
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