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1. When do you contact Bitcoin? What do you think of the blockchain industry?
I came into contact with Bitcoin in October 2013. At that time, I was making game aids, which involved the issue of collecting money from Taiwan and Southeast Asia.
The reason for cultivating the blockchain industry is that blockchain is the only industry that can provide economic freedom. The blockchain is decentralized and has no control center, so no one can eliminate it, so it provides economic freedom. The counter-example is Qvod player. Although Qvod player also has tens of thousands of nodes, it is centralized. As long as the control center is killed, the Qvod player network will die. (QvodPlayer is a Chinese-based video-on-demand playback software, using P2P technology, users can watch online film and television programs through buffering. In mainland China, QvodPlayer has a huge number of users. Due to the use of a dedicated transmission protocol, QvodPlayer is used by some users to download banned videos, such as violent or pornographic videos, and politically sensitive videos. In addition, pirated movies are rampant in QvodPlayer)
I am not a Bitcoinist. As long as other tokens provide economic freedom, I will buy them with real money. My position portfolio is BCH 40% + BTC 30% + ETH 20% + economically free innovative currency 10%, and I think that ETH is likely to exceed BTC in total market value in this bull market.
2. What is the difference between BTC, BCH and BSV?
The easiest thing to see is the difference in block size. BTC blocks have been locked at about 1MB, while BSV advocates infinite blocks. BCH advocates a moderate block size, which cannot exceed the carrying capacity of an ordinary computer. The current value is about 32MB.
Both BTC and BSV have gone to extremes. The BTC development team, Core, pursues extreme decentralization, resulting in too small blocks and high transaction fees. In the last bull market, a transaction fee was as high as hundreds of thousands of yuan, which caused a large number of BTC users to flow out to BCH, ETH and other tokens.
Some people think that BTC can rely entirely on stored-value users instead of using users to survive. This is impossible. If there are no users, there are no stored value users. For example, gold is obviously more suitable for storing value, but almost everyone has bank deposits, except for the elderly, almost no one uses gold to store value. To
People usually use paper money to store value, and naturally they also use paper money to store value. It is impossible to use paper money to store value with gold, and it is impossible to use paper money for small transactions and gold for large transactions. Currency has a scale effect, and it must be a winner takes all.
BSV has gone to the other extreme. The blockchain is enough to store transaction data, but if the blockchain is used as cloud storage, no amount of space is enough. Think about how many resources the world has to store. The result is that the performance requirements are too high, the number of nodes is drastically reduced, and the foundation of the blockchain, which is decentralization, is lost. In the end, it falls into the same fate as the Qvod player. To
Behind the different block sizes are the differences in the spirit of the three. Just like during the Opium War, the difference between Britain and China's Qing Dynasty was not a superficial weapon, but a complete political, economic, and technological gap behind it.
Both BTC and BSV are irrational and religious to a certain extent. BTC advocates a deadlock block size, and BSV advocates a deadlock protocol. The two are very similar.
In terms of rational development and serving users, BCH has won. For example, the issuance of tokens is an important function and rigid demand of the blockchain. Tokens can already be issued on BCH through several protocols such as Wormhole and SLP, while BTC and BSV cannot yet. This is a huge difference in development.
3. Under what circumstances can BCH exceed BTC?
BCH has to wait for users to slowly develop until the number of users and transactions exceed BTC. Although under normal circumstances, the currency has a scale effect, this situation is unlikely to happen, but BTC made a fatal mistake, and locked the block and locked the user.
What if BTC expands like BCH?
First of all, BTC cannot be expanded because the expansion requires a hard fork, regardless of whether it is within the community or the Core, it must adhere to 1MB, insist on extreme decentralization, and BTC must be able to run on the Raspberry Pi. The result is that the expansion advocates in BTC and Core re-hard fork.
Isn't this the plot of the hard fork of BCH from BTC in 2017? So what are these "advocates" doing hard forking again? Just go straight to BCH.
Therefore, BTC must undergo a hard fork to expand, so it cannot be expanded.
So BCH only needs to catch up, which is a fixed goal. I estimate that in this bull market, BCH can exceed the number of users. At that time, BCH had a solid foundation of users and communities. The price increase only increases the price of BCH, the value of BCH is determined by the number of users, and the price fluctuates around the value.
4. Will BCH hard fork happen? What impact will it have on us later?
The BCH community has recently had a lot of discussions on the issue of miner donations, which reflects the decentralization of BCH.
If BCH is controlled by bitmain, why it took a long time for bitmain to implement this problem? Conversely, if CSW wants to modify something on BSV, it can be passed immediately.
5. Do you think BCH is worth long-term ownership?
I often say: "Ask God in the short term, and the number of users in the long term."
The longer the time, the more worth holding BCH. BCH is developing rapidly due to the correct route. I just gave an example. There are already several schemes for issuing tokens on BCH, but neither BTC nor BSV have one. Part of it is because BSV locks the protocol and is not convenient for development. The other part It is because the BSV community has inherited the characteristics of CSW and only speaks big words and does not do practical things.
Therefore, it is definitely worth holding for 1 to 2 years, and the rate of increase is likely to be higher than that of BTC. I predict that the highest point of this round of bull market for BCH will rise from about 3.6% of BTC to 10% to 20% of BTC.
8. Free Q&A
"Will Bitcoin die due to quantum computers or other reasons?"
Certainly not, at best, replace a quantum-resistant algorithm. Looking at it now, quantum computers will not be practical for a long time. And I think quantum computers may not be able to solve the NP problem, that is, the current asymmetric encryption problem, which may not be possible mathematically.
"The impact of the proliferation of contract transactions on currency prices?"
The currency price is ultimately determined by the number of users, not by speculative users. The proliferation of futures trading has happened long ago. From 2016 to 2017, in the presence of a large number of futures trading, BTC rose 100 times.
"Will you be notified when you escape?"
I will definitely not inform. I have already made predictions. I think the bull market may end in the second half of 2021. Or conversely, this bull market may last for two to three years, and two years are more likely.
Why not notify? Most of my clients are miners, and the currency price directly affects the income of the miners. If the currency price drops due to my notification, the interests of my clients will be damaged.
"Recommended regular investment in 2019, what strategy is recommended in 2020?"
This year's bull market has begun, and it must be a full position investment. The cost of regular investment to buy coins later is very high.
"Is it better to speculate or to mine now?"
Most people can't insist on holding the token from start to finish. Most people are in the middle of the bull market, or even sell it at the beginning, and then miss the entire bull market.
Only miners, no matter what level of miners, will hold the token from beginning to end. During the entire bull market, miners are very profitable. Miners will certainly not sell the goose that lays golden eggs like mining machines in the bull market, so miners tend to make more. The earliest miners are basically still active in the market, and their wealth is free, while the earliest holders of coins are almost gone.
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