[Daily Discussion] Sunday, December 16, 2018 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Sunday, December 16, 2018
- [Altcoin Discussion] Sunday, December 16, 2018
- Possible hash rate reversal
- Need help backing out valuations for Kraken $4b and Coinbase $8b
| [Daily Discussion] Sunday, December 16, 2018 Posted: 15 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Sunday, December 16, 2018 Posted: 15 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| Posted: 15 Dec 2018 02:29 PM PST Something very interesting that has happened which I haven't seen anyone comment on yet is the possible hash rate trend reversal. I've been keeping an eye on the bitcoin hash rate the last few weeks. As the price dropped I thought that with enough miners going offline there would be a chance of chain death, but watching it for 4 weeks I found my fears unfounded! However, I found it fascinating that even in this bear market, with price dropping for the past year, the hash rate still increased significantly until Oct. You can view the historical hash rate here: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#log Since October, hash rate has been going down, which I was able to find also happened in Aug - Nov 2011. The bottom of the hash rate could be argued to be 20th / 27th Nov or 13th Dec. Price bottomed out during that time 21st November (I wasn't around during that time, have only been in the space for a year and was reading a coindesk article talking about price historical price highs and lows). I've been watching hash rate for the last few weeks at this site: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Looking at the most recent hash rate, it seems we're possibly back on the way up, with a hash rate reversal. I think it's still too early to know for sure, but seems to be a strong indication of hash rate rebounding. Another 12-24 hours I think should confirm it. I am not calling the bottom, as there is no confirmed pattern here, more a hunch and some interesting metrics that are lining up, plus no one knows the future. However I am putting this forward as an interesting metric to discuss, as well as a possible reason for the increase in longs we've seen in the last few hours. Not sure if this is a lead measure or a lag measure, but worth discussing. I'd be interested to hear what other people's thoughts are! edit: Spelling and Grammar edit2: This got a bit off topic, above when saying chain death, I was referring to chain death spiral, so not using correct terminology which may have contributed to the below discussion. Would prefer to move conversation to the original observation of hashing increase though. [link] [comments]  |
| Need help backing out valuations for Kraken $4b and Coinbase $8b Posted: 15 Dec 2018 09:51 PM PST I'm doing some open brainstorming on the recent valuations in the space. I would appreciate hearing thoughts from others on these valuations, possible inputs, view of the future.
For the private companies, we don't have any information about what the valuation drivers were. We can assume revenue, which we can to some extent estimate based on publicly reported trade volumes. That doesn't tell the whole story though as volume/market making can be paid for. We don't know what net profits are, how much is being spent on R&D, etc. We don't know what the companies' assets/liabilities/investments are. There are products, services and revenue sources with no publicly available metrics. Kraken
I estimate that Kraken could have as much as $500 million in cash reserves. Other notable features, market differentiators which could play in to valuation +/-:
Coinbase
I estimate that Coinbase could have as much as $1 billion in cash reserves. Other notable features, market differentiators which could play in to valuation +/-:
Thoughts: Kraken has an advantage in consolidating the industry as it is more culturally aligned and engaged with the community of other crypto leaders. Its technical crypto expertise gives it tremendous leverage with acquisitions. Coinbase is obviously following the old playbook: raise from large, connected corporate investors, build regulatory moat, lobby for your own interests, kill rather than collaborate, IPO. It's a strategy proven to be successful. It's likely both businesses survive. Cultural differences may prevent a merger of the two companies but they may carry on as strong rivals indefinitely. Questions:
Kraken news: https://www.coindesk.com/kraken-is-seeking-war-chest-investment-at-a-4-billion-valuation Coinbase news: https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-hits-8-billion-valuation-after-300-million-funding-round [link] [comments]  |
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