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    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 05, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 05, 2018 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, May 05, 2018

    Posted: 04 May 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, May 05, 2018

    Posted: 04 May 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • Discussion related to recent events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • General questions about altcoins

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
    • This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
    • No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

    If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Major downtrend is broken, now get ready for moon

    Posted: 05 May 2018 01:21 AM PDT

    help make cryptocurrency an academic topic

    Posted: 05 May 2018 02:03 AM PDT

    As a recent blockchain and cryptocurrency enthusiast, I decided to graduate my MBA by researching ICOs and online communities. Since you are all part of one of the biggest online community interested in cryptocurrencies, please help make cryptocurrency get a better academic position by participating in the following survey: https://uvafeb.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_ba1aa388QvCSClD. This takes about 7 minutes. Thanks in advance!

    submitted by /u/Shitec
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    Moon Math Update: Noob DCA Strategy Second Edition

    Posted: 04 May 2018 03:39 PM PDT

    It's time

    Weekly BBands are tightening. Moon Math commeth.

    https://www.moonmath.win

    Let's talk about why it's time to make a thoughtful, intentional, prudent, gradual, and responsible investment in bitcoin using hourly, daily, or weekly buys.

    DCA = Dollar Cost Average

    Last time we did this our cost basis was 3,800. I know for a fact that one member of our community acquired about 2.5 BTC at that cost basis while intentionally following this series. They saw their investment of 10k grow over 50k in a few months. If they're still holding their coins, and held through the chaos, they're sitting on about 25k worth of BTC from their initial investment of 10k. They did that in 8 months. They still have nine years and four months for their investment to fully mature. They have never seen their investment go negative.

    I'm not mentioning the noob with 10k as if their story is a promise it will happen again. I'm not suggesting that the same thing can happen for you. You missed out on that investment. So, now what? The opposite could happen for you, right? Sit up and pay attention.

    Let's get started.

    Moon Math

    https://www.moonmath.win

    Observe:

    • Pretty much all Moon Math trends are are plausible and positive.
    • Today, only the 60 day performance trend is negative
    • On the 2012 trend Rainbow Chart we're just bouncing out of purple and moving into green and yellow regions (same as the last series).

    Past performance does not indicate future performance, but we can lay the groundwork for why these projections have come true and will continue to work by observing fundamentals about the market.

    Stop talking about "divergence," already

    Why?

    I'm having trouble making sense of our position in terms of divergence, but I think I've got some observations that are helping me process this position a little better after talking with a few of you guys about it.

    What I'm seeing are higher highs and higher lows from the price while also seeing lower lows and lower highs from RSI.

    Bullish divergence and hidden bullish divergence? -- /u/veltrop

    Yeah, fucking weird and confusing. Don't talk to anybody about this. In fact, lay off it in the daily. It doesn't make sense. It just means we're all confused. We're going to talk about it anyway because I have to convince you that this position is significant. I also have to mention it because this sub made it the vocab word of the month. (fucking thanks, /u/mandy7 -- seriously, though, you're a great contributor. Keep it up).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/WCbsHD13/

    Where on the 4 hour have we seen this before?

    2017 Market top

    before the bubble popped in 2017 we saw "bullish divergence and hidden bullish divergence."

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/fqyscIHt/

    This pattern shows how bears can turn low momentum into pure carnage in a heartbeat. So bearish, right?

    Well... maybe not. In that illustration there's an ascending wedge that's paired with a lot of resistance and a ton of volume that's tapering off as the price rises. That doesn't perfectly characterize our current position. We're ascending out of a ear market and the wedge starts in an area where we characterized ourselves as being in a hopeless bear market.

    Where's another example?

    2016: First ATH in three years

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ja6Y7aEw/

    So, it happened before another market top?

    Yes and no. The pattern terminated before the ATH. In fact, the price rose out of the wedge and gained nearly 20% in a couple days.

    If bears terminate this pattern with bullish momentum, I think we can nearly guarantee that A&E double bottom will be confirmed either around that time or shortly after. Considering that RSI is already trending toward oversold, in a way that neither of my examples approach, I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll observe the price surge back before the end of the month on an extended fifth wave.

    When to buy?

    Start buying now. /u/yolotrades the button.

    Go make an account at https://www.coinbase.com/, https://gemini.com/, https://www.gdax.com/ ... wherever makes you feel the most comfortable. In 10 years it isn't going to mater which exchange you bought on, or the pennies difference in price you ended up paying for your transaction. Make it fun and easy for you. You can buy with market buys on a schedule or you can set calendar reminders and do this at whatever regular interval you are comfortable with.

    Personally, I enjoy placing limit orders and watching people give me their bitcoins for no fee. So, create a trading or OTC account, transfer some cash in there, and have fun buying Bitcoin on an exchange or over the counter.

    After you've bought

    Get a ledger nano s (https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s) trezor https://trezor.io. DO NOT BUY FROM ANYONE BUT THE MANUFACTURER I'VE LINKED TO HERE! and get your coins off exchange as it's efficient and convenient for you. You're probably not dealing with so much money that it makes your head hurt. Someday it will be. Get your coins off exchange before it gets to that point. Get them off exchange if you are impulsive, too. It should be harder to sell your coins than it is to change your mood.

    Put bitcoin wallet in a safe deposit box at a bank if you're dealing with substantial amounts of money. Otherwise, put it somewhere theft, moisture, fire, and heat proof. Alternatively, learn to make yourself a paper wallet and do the same. Make sure that paper you're printing on is appropriate for archival purposes. https://support.hp.com/us-en/document/c00740449

    Transactions are cheap, but, unlike your limit orders, they're not free. Bundle your transactions (when you're comfortable that you're doing it right) to your wallet if you're dealing with less than 100k. The exchanges I've linked to are insured like banks. They have customer support. Ask for help if you're feeling nervous with any step along the way. People are super helpful in this community. Just ask. Ask until you feel confident. There's no rush.

    When to sell

    Do not sell. Any money you have invested in Bitcoin needs to mature for at least 5 years. I recommend ten. You should target your sales for bubbles that occur after halving events and you should DCA out as you DCAed in. You must hold through at least one halving, ideally two. If you start feeling adventurous you can learn about different hedging strategies, but don't sell your cold storage stash (which is what you're building with this DCA). Risk other funds to lower your risk and pay for your loses out of your pocket for as long as that is financially viable and prudent. If you suck at hedging, don't do it.

    When to abort the DCA

    Abort !== Sell !!!!

    We've seen that there's more than one possible outcome based on our observations of somewhat similar market conditions in the past. We know the market is undecided. We've decided we're going to risk starting our long-term entry before the market breaks substantially in one direction or the other. We did that last time, too.

    Just because we're new doesn't mean that we're going to ignore indications of heightened risk. It doesn't mean we're going to run from risk, either. We don't want to buy through a massive selloff and then run out of funds at the bottom, only to be disappointed by a shit cost basis that takes months or years to recover from. Don't do that to yourself.

    Here are some obvious reasons to abort (these things could happen)

    • Abort if we break below 5.8k
    • Abort if RSI makes a lower low and the price makes a lower low
    • Abort if the weekly BBands stop contracting
    • Abort if I post an update about a Noob DCA Apocalypse... or something like that.

    We'll need to reevaluate our entry if at some point things don't go our way and the bear market looks like it's going to continue for a substantial period of time. Shit happens. Be ready for it. Until then, follow the plan.

    Moon Math Update: Noob DCA Strategy First Edition

    Read over the last Moon Math DCA Noob series for more context:

    Addendum

    Stay the hell away from alts. If you're reading this thread and making decisions about this stuff for the first time then you have no business dealing with alts yet.

    If you decide to look into alts later, then I encourage you to explore that somewhere else. If you ask me about it I'll blink at you and ask you about what you've discovered... then I'll laugh myself to sleep about whatever it is you said.

    Just... don't complicate it. If you're reading this then you're not ready to start evaluating alts. It's a minefield I love thinking about them, it's fun to trade them... an I'm convinced alts are going to hurt a lot more people than than they will help. Some alts are going to do well. You don't know what they are or how to figure that out. For now, leave it at that.

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    It was Bitcoin that allowed me to transition when I did. It may have saved my life, and I'll always be thankful. Crypto is so much more than just an investment vehicle!

    Posted: 05 May 2018 05:46 AM PDT

    Arbitrage bot profit margins?

    Posted: 05 May 2018 04:05 AM PDT

    How much profit can there be had by making/modifying an arbitrage bot? Monthly, in percentage please. I am trying to figure out if it's more profitable than buy-low/sell-high (monthly, in percentage) especially considering the high amount of possible complications, costs and risks.

    I am interested to hear from people that have done this or otherwise know real data-situations, no speculations please.

    submitted by /u/RandomThoughts27
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    Can someone clarify me on this?

    Posted: 04 May 2018 11:08 PM PDT

    I am new to margin trading. As of now i don't want to do it but i am trying to understand it.

    Suppose i have $1000 in my account , i did leverage 2x and now i have $2000 in my account. I shorted BTC but instead it reached $11k. So my question is when will i be liquidated? I will just have to pay loaning rate for the $1000 i borrowed , right?

    If anyone has an article or a guide which explains margin trading please link it below. Thanks.

    submitted by /u/Sp1nalcord
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    Can anybody enlighten me on if & why/why not this trading algorithm would work

    Posted: 05 May 2018 09:52 AM PDT

    My idea is quite simple, the algorithm buys whenever price falls (in small steps), and sells if all of those individual positions make a set % (not sure how to do the math to optimize that, must be above trading fees obv). There is no duplicate positions, and the size is big enough to cover a veery big pricerange.

    Can this work? As long as there is volatility there would be gains. Only a drop to zero is a rip (normal holding gets rekt by that obv. Aswell)

    submitted by /u/S1r_Mar71n
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    Vote: Do you think BTC price will cross 50k USD in 2018?

    Posted: 04 May 2018 10:39 AM PDT

    Is It Right Time to Invest in Bitcoin?

    Posted: 05 May 2018 08:30 AM PDT

    Can it be said that now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin? Traders and investors are already looking at the medium term, expecting that the price of bitcoins will move to critical levels in the coming weeks. https://alextones.com/is-it-right-time-to-invest-in-bitcoin

    submitted by /u/wertu1
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    My friend started using HodlBot to diversify into the top 20 coins by market cap. He started with $180 in April and now he's at $358. I'd love to know if you guys have been able to beat this performance and how.

    Posted: 05 May 2018 07:54 AM PDT

    Proof

    Hey guys! I've posted about HodlBot here before but I'll just give a quick recap to those of you who don't know what it does.

    HodlBot indexes the cryptocurrency market by buying the top 20 coins by market cap and rebalancing every month. You can use it directly on your Binance account to take a passive, low-cost, and long-term approach to investing.

    In equity markets, most active traders end up underperforming the index. I'm curious to see whether this rule holds true in crypto as well.

    Here's our indexing methodology. Here's a link to the app.

    submitted by /u/haggenballs
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    First Crypto Elections

    Posted: 05 May 2018 05:09 AM PDT

    On April 12, the community of Tron received an open letter from Justin San, CEO of Tron. The letter tells about the first election of Super Representatives, which are scheduled for June 26. https://alextones.com/super-representatives-crypto-elections-of-tron

    submitted by /u/wertu1
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    Max safe leverage - trading on margin?

    Posted: 05 May 2018 04:59 AM PDT

    Bitmex offers 100x leverage on Bitcoin, its crazy amount of leverage and if used to the max you can get wiped out almost instantly Even 20x is way too high, your deposit of 5% will not hold against daily swings and your position will get closed after 2-3% dip or spike as there is minimum margin requirement.

    What is the reasonable and relatively safe level of leverage successful traders use in trading crypto

    submitted by /u/didiflex
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    does anyone know of any free trading bots we can use for learning resource?

    Posted: 05 May 2018 02:22 AM PDT

    open source, just want to use as a base example. thanks.

    submitted by /u/mwalshe89
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    Does anyone know of a simple order execution bot (for Bitmex) that is free or cheap?

    Posted: 04 May 2018 06:09 PM PDT

    I am looking for a very simple bot where I can input the amount of contracts I would like to either purchase or sell and which will place the order at the respective bid/ask price and then when the price shifts it would cancel the order and then place a new order at the new bid/ask price. It seems like there are plenty of people using such bots as whenever the mid-market price moves huge numbers of orders immediately shift to the new price. If anyone could give me a recommendation I would appreciate it. I tried searching the subreddit and couldn't find anything like this.

    submitted by /u/Seetherrr
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    Starbucks $80 @ 68% on Btc

    Posted: 05 May 2018 07:44 AM PDT

    (Obvioustly I go first as I currently low on rep)

    As mentioned uptop Starbucks $80 @ 68% on Btc or Dogecoin 70%

    submitted by /u/EliSabrina
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    US Federal Reserve May Issue Own Cryptocurrency FedCoin

    Posted: 04 May 2018 11:31 PM PDT

    The former governor of the Federal Reserve Bank Kevin Warsh believes that the creation of FedCoin "bring legal activities into a digital coin" deserves serious consideration. FedCoin Cryptocurrency can help the Federal Reserve in crisis. https://alextones.com/the-us-federal-reserve-may-issue-own-cryptocurrency-fedcoin

    submitted by /u/wertu1
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    Which lending site is more worth it for earning interest on your coins? Poloniex or Bitfinex?

    Posted: 04 May 2018 04:16 PM PDT

    Or are there other ones? Which one is more reliable you think?

    submitted by /u/box1820
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    Market Analysis – Bitcoin consolidating – other alts variable

    Posted: 04 May 2018 12:46 PM PDT

    Pretty excited, seems like a lot of big of coins are on the rise again. Hope everyone is staying calm and confident, anyone else think this is going to turn out really well?

    https://cryptodisrupt.com/market-analysis-bitcoin-consolidating-other-alts-variable/

    submitted by /u/Telemachus7
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    If Bitcoin prices Breaks 20k you can be leverage!

    Posted: 04 May 2018 10:30 PM PDT

    Don't miss such huge opportunity on BTC rise and make a move! I have a new subreddit /r/BitmexTraders which should be very helpful for traders in the near future and will even contain real analyss and signals at some point, primarily discussing Bitcoin prices and charts. I'm really looking forward to see you join our freshly made community and share your thoughts!

    submitted by /u/KiwiNetwork
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