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    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 31, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    March 31, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 31, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, March 31, 2018

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 09:06 PM PDT

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

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    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Research paper on bitcoin bubbles - the bitcoin price is "decorated with accelerating log-periodic volatility fluctuations, embodying spirals of competing expectations of higher returns (bullish) and an impending crash (bearish)"

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 03:27 PM PDT

    https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05663

    The whole thing is great, here's some more excerpts

    the price exhibits a transient faster-than-exponential growth (i.e., where the growth rate itself is growing)—resulting from positive feedbacks like herding [ 24]—that is modeled by a hyperbolic power law with a singularity in finite time, i.e., endogenous ly approaching an infinite value and therefore necessitating a crash or correction before the singularity is reached

    In this paper, we have combined a generalized Metcalfe's law, providing a fundamental value based on network characteristics, with the Log-periodic Power law Singularity (LPPLS) model, to develop a rich diagnostic of bubbles and their crashes that have punctuated the cryptocurrency's history. In doing so, we were able to diagnose four distinct bubbles, being periods of high overvaluation and LPPLS-like trajectories, which were followed by crashes or strong corrections. Although the height and length of the bubbles vary substantially, we showed that, when scaled to the same log-height and length, a near-universal super-exponential growth is documented. This is in radical contrast to the view that crypto-markets follow a random walk and are essentially unpredictable.

    Focusing on the outlook for bitcoin, the active user data indicates a shrinking growth rate, which a range of parameterizations of our generalized Metcalfe's law translates into slowing growth in market capitalization. Further, our Metcalfe-based analysis indicates current support levels for the bitcoin market in the range of 22–44 billion USD, at least four times less than the current level. On this basis alone, the current market resembles that of early 2014, which was followed by a year of sideways and downward movement.

    I think they are pretty correct, we are in long term exponential growth, and metcalf's law is a component of that. Due to market herding though, we also have sigmoidal bubbles along the way. It was interesting to see the sigmoidal steps in the scatter plot of # of users against market cap.

    submitted by /u/Polycephal_Lee
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    Bitmex explained?

    Posted: 31 Mar 2018 06:53 AM PDT

    Hi guys, recently I went short on bitmex at 5x leverage. Although I closed the position at a slight profit, opened about 7039 closed about 7020. I netted about a 3.4% loss in terms of P/L still. Is it because of the rape funding fees? I don't totally understand the funding thing yet even after reading the bitmex help page, can someone help to explain it?

    submitted by /u/hellfireslain
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    I Bought the Dip for Quick Trade.

    Posted: 31 Mar 2018 02:06 AM PDT

    Hi all,

    I bought the dip at around $6600 for a quick trade.

    Here's why:

    https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@tradealert/6sdup-bitcoin-market-update

    Let me know your thoughts.

    Cheers :)

    Dan

    submitted by /u/DanJaay
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    How Much Should I Trust BitMEX?

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 02:09 PM PDT

    A while ago, I decided to partially hedge my Bitcoin cold storage with short positions on Bitmex. The value of those positions has unfortunately grown to a level that I'm not normally comfortable leaving on an exchange. The fact that I'm using a VPN to access Bitmex adds to my discomfort. I'd appreciate opinions about how much BTC an American should feel comfortable holding on Bitmex.

    [I believe the security of my account login information is very good.]

    submitted by /u/MeJaySay
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    TA

    Posted: 31 Mar 2018 07:28 AM PDT

    Best place to understand and view short and long positions

    Posted: 31 Mar 2018 12:25 AM PDT

    Hello I wanted to ask where is the best place to understand and view BTC long and short potions?

    My understanding is that if there are more short potions(people are betting for the price to go lower)

    Therefore it is likely the price will fall.

    Thank you

    Does it look like or how likely is it that price will go to 6.5k or will it go higher than 7k?

    submitted by /u/Balkrish
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    **Trading View Signal Finder Help**

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 06:14 PM PDT

    Hey guys so out of respect for your time i will keep this short and to the point.

    I am trying to setup the right indicators on the trading view signal finder tool.

    One problem i keep seeing which doesn't make sense to me is...

    When i see a coin that has a rating of "strong buy" moving aver rating is also "strong buy" pretty much everything says to buy the coin...

    When i check the graph of the coin on binance, the given coin is always at the overbought point on the RSI, and it is about to bounce off the upper bollinger band.

    In short I cant make sense of how the signal finder app is telling me to buy strongly buy something while on the graph of the coin it is at a high point and is on the way down.

    All comments and advice is much appreciated!

    submitted by /u/k_singh23
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    Where will institutional money come from ? No Fud, only serious response.

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 01:22 PM PDT

    The idea of institutional money coming to save us is told so many times. I know that big funds won't touch BTC because of these reasons: 1) Lack of transparancy, the BTC could've been owned by bad people. No serious fund will want to touch suspect BTC and get criminal charges. 2) Extremely volatile. 70% loss from ATH in 3 months is huge. Funds can't risk losing investors money. 3) Illiquidity. It's hard to cash out large amount of money. So when big investors want their money back, what happens ? The same scenario as Mg tox trustee who crashed the market. 4) Hedge funds won't necessarily long BTC, they will short the hell out of it. And they have the media and money to do it.

    Can anyone provide articles or quotes proving institutional money is coming ? Thanks for the help.

    Edit: I found an article stating that 15 funds where created in the summer of 2017, which means hedge funds are already in. This sucks. https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/07/12/crypto-boom-15-new-hedge-funds-want-in-on-84000-returns/#56958a6a416a

    submitted by /u/sak-
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    Who is the best bitcoin price predictor/chart analytic

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 08:11 PM PDT

    I would love to read more about bitcoin price analyze but didn't know where to read and whom to read from? Please refer me some source. Thank you!

    submitted by /u/kk78952
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    So you think the 1st of april paycheck can have an effect in the market?

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 12:10 PM PDT

    In many, possibly most countries, you receive the paycheck the 1st of the month. And if you go watch the charts. There is a strong correlation of the 1st day of the month with a green candle.

    Im not saying that a lot of money will go in now, but with this pure bear mania we are having, i would be very aware, market could change its momentum any second (look december). So stay safe.

    submitted by /u/C4H8N8O8
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    Catastrophic split that can lead to zero before the cancellation: BTC = 7k. Nothing going on, G20 love blockchain, Putin loves Blockchain: BTC = 6k

    Posted: 30 Mar 2018 12:06 PM PDT

    What an insane market!

    edit: Even forgot LN in the title :)

    submitted by /u/aelaos1
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