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    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, February 20, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    February 20, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, February 20, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, February 20, 2018

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 08:05 PM PST

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Reasons to be cautious - An analysis of price and volume changes

    Posted: 20 Feb 2018 05:03 AM PST

    Disclaimer: This is all based on historical data; this market has a tendency to buck trends, and will probably behave pretty randomly.

    I'm a hodler, not a trader. However, I'm interested in trend analysis, and I've done some work using an approach I've not seen before.

    I wanted to understand how well future prices correlated with recent price changes and volume changes. Some interesting trends emerged.

    Summary

    We identified the 'state' of price and volume changes over 7-, 30-, and 90-day periods, and, for the current state, compared this to previous instances:

    • Over a 7-day period, the price generally increased from the current state over the following 7 days.

    • Over a 30-day period, the price generally fell significantly from the current state over the following 30 days. This is the 'reason to be cautious!'

    • Over a 90-day period, the price generally increased from the current state over the following 90 days.

    If the market follows historical trends, this suggests, a short term rise, followed by a fairly sharp fall over the next month, before rising again by mid-May.

    Edit: Interesting note, which may be a cause for very cautious optimism. The only previous time matching the current state in all three periods is June - July 2013, which was only a few months before a huge 10x price rise.

    Methodology

    1. For a given period n, we calculated for each date available, the rolling n-day average price and volume (using data from bitcoinity.org).

    2. For each date available, we calculated the n-day percentage change in the rolling average price and volume.

    3. We separated out positive and negative changes, and, for both prices and volume, distributed these equally into b bands (i.e. so that each band contains the same number of entries).

    4. We assigned a state to each date based on band membership. Trivially, there are 2b*2b = 4b^2 possible states (positive / negative price * b * positive / negative volume * b).

    5. For each date available, we looked up the price band n days later.

    6. For each state, we counted the number of times it moved into each price band. This allowed calculation of the distribution of movements from a particular state to a particular price change.

    After some experimentation, a value of b = 3 (i.e. 36 possible states) gave a useful level of granularity for the analysis.

    7-day Analysis, n = 7, b = 3

    Bandings

    Using n=7 and b=3 generated the following bandings:

    Movement

    Movement distribution, n=7, b=3

    As may be expected, there is some indication that price increases and volume increases tend to lead to price increases. However, the correlation is not so strong that predicting price changes over 7 days is reliable (e.g. even at the highest price and volume increase state, there is a 19% chance that the price will fall over the next 7 days.

    Current State

    We see from the movement distribution that, historically, the market has moved in 7 days from the current state to the highest price increase band 42% of the time. However, there is less support for band 1 or band 2 price movements. Overall, probability of increase vs. decrease is 69% vs. 31%.

    This chart shows previous dates on which this state was reached, as well as highlighting the 90-day lead-up to that state.

    30-day Analysis, n = 30, b=3

    Banding

    Using n=30 and b=3 generated the following bandings:

    Movement

    Movement distribution, n=30, b=3

    Correlations over a 30-day period are much more focused than over 7 days. Some clear indicators emerge, for example:

    • Band (3, -1): A large average price increase, and a small drop in volume have only ever led to a medium - large decrease in price. Possibly this is a reflection of market panic?

    • Band (-3, -3): A large decrease in price and volume tend to lead to a future decrease in price a volume.

    • Band (2, 3): A medium increase in price, and a large increase in volume, almost always leads to further increases in price.

    Current State

    We see from the movement distribution that, historically, the market has moved in 30 days from the current state to the greatest price decrease band 60% of the time.

    Charting where this state has been reached previously, we see it normally occurred during during falls in price. This suggests a note of caution in treating the current market as a bull market over a 30-day period.

    90-day Analysis, n=90, b=3

    Bandings

    Using n=90 and b=3 generated the following bandings:

    Movement

    Movement distribution, n=90, b=3

    Correlations over a 90-day period are even more focused than over 30-days, but, given the time-scale, perhaps less useful. Some interesting highlights:

    • Bands (3, -1), (3, -2), (3, -3): A fall in volume over 90 days, coupled with a big increase in price, have only ever led to a big fall in price. Market correction at work.

    • Bands (1, x) vs (2, x) and (3, x): A slight increase in price (1, x) more regularly led to further increases in price than moderate or high increases.

    Current State

    We see from the movement distribution that, historically, the price has increased in 90 days from the current state 88% of the time.

    Interestingly, however, when the price has fallen from the current state, it's fallen hard.

    Charting where this state has been reached previously, we see it normally occurred either around the mid-point or the peak of an increasing trend. I'm not sure which we're at currently :-)

    submitted by /u/welshrarebitcoin
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    Kraken brings back stop-loss / take profit orders

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 09:35 PM PST

    https://blog.kraken.com/post/1494/kraken-enables-advanced-orders-and-adds-10-currency-pairs/

    TL;DR: Those order types are back, they added a few alts and some JPY + GBP pairs

    submitted by /u/hazard02
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    I've been loading up on Bitcoin over the past 2 weeks. Here is why. (Technical Analysis)

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 04:31 PM PST

    As some of you may know, I sold all of my BTC back in January at around $14K after getting spooked out by the irrational behavior in the market. The news flow and sentiment continued to weight on BTC after I sold. However, over the past two weeks, I've been loading up on BTC (as well as on Ethereum).

    I still believe there are a lot of irrational behavior in the market. There are still too many scams and valuation remains... challenging. However, there is no doubt in my mind that the sentiment has turned positive. I won't bore you with a recap of the recent news flow, but will instead focus on where I can add value to the community -- by analyzing the numbers.

    So without further ado, here are the reasons why I'm loading up: 1) When I sold in Jan, I warned that a 42% pullback isn't even a bear market. BTC sold off ANOTHER 60%+ since. The recent sell off can be certainly considered a bear market. The pullback was similar to 2013 when BTC pulled back around 70% from its then all-time-high before embarking on a sustained rally.

    2) BTC tested its 200-day moving average only briefly before a strong bounce. This is very bullish since this establishes the 200-day moving average as a support level rather than a resistance level, which occurred in 2014/2015. The bounce parallels the 2013 period, which as you may recall was a period of hefty returns.

    3) BTC is currently only 9.1% below its 50-day moving average. In the past, some of the biggest rallies occurred after crossing above the 50-day moving average.

    Sorry, I don't know how to add charts to Reddit. For a much more detailed argument with numbers and charts, I have it in my blog.

    Do you guys agree with my assessment? Thanks for reading!

    http://cryptoblockchainresearch.com/2018/02/20/bitcoins-rally-looks-sustainable-technical-analysis/

    submitted by /u/Keeppgoingg
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    Bitmex analysis of USDT

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 08:24 PM PST

    https://blog.bitmex.com/tether/

    The research team at bitmex seem to have found evidence of a sudden surge of deposits in PR that roughly match the total USDT outstanding, and largely debunks the claims of many of bitfinex/tether critics, although concerns remain of regulatory risks.

    Is this enough to satisfy the bitfinex/twitter critics?

    submitted by /u/BlueeDog4
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    Selling your alts for BTC before a BTC rally

    Posted: 20 Feb 2018 12:06 AM PST

    I've been watching my portfolio's Bitcoin value and since Jan 7th (the start of 2018's crash) it's actually been fairly stable in terms of BTC. This is because most of the alts I own balanced themselves in relation to BTC even though BTC was going down in USD. Skip to today and it is the first time since then that my portfolio's value in BTC is starting to go lower than Jan 7th. It seems as though it may be an indicator to sell some alts for BTC to "lock in" the earnings.

    My question: Is this an indicator that most alts will retain their USD value with the next BTC bull run (thus decreasing in value vs BTC) or do you feel we will see a more resilient altcoin market compared to the 2013 crash with more people hodling their alts and not necessarily swapping to BTC?

    submitted by /u/6_33_6
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    Where can I margin trade on altcoins (everything on Binance, really)

    Posted: 20 Feb 2018 10:25 AM PST

    I'm keen to scalp some altcoins, but I cannot find a solution. Made a 7% return in 2 hours and I wish I could leverage the same strategy.

    South African, by the way.

    submitted by /u/Ninjaicefish
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    Coins.ph exchange launched in the Philippines KYC, BTC/PHP.BCH/PHP/,XRP/PHP,LTC/PHP,ETH/PHP

    Posted: 20 Feb 2018 10:10 AM PST

    https://cx.coins.asia/

    The Coins Exchange, or CX, is a digital currency exchange product by Coins.ph. We operate in the Philippines and serve as a platform where buyers can connect with sellers and exchange digital currency at prices determined by the market. Customers can use our order-book exchange to buy digital currency with Philippine peso, at larger volumes, and for lower fees.

    Our goal is to make digital currency cheap and fast. By offering professional-grade digital financial services, we aim to reduce the cost of buying and selling digital currency in the Philippines.

    submitted by /u/marfillaster
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    Bitcoin is showing channeling into a parabolic move on 15 minutes chart over the past two days

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 08:23 PM PST

    I wish i could post an image here, but I have been tracing green lines on my charts all weekend. It's starting to tip almost vertically upwards and I think we are going moon and lambo and lgbt soon.

    edited to show this link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9HRDYWlm

    submitted by /u/TravelPhoenix
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    Is anyone else concerned that almost all posts on /r/bitfinex is about the inability to withdraw fiat funds?

    Posted: 19 Feb 2018 05:01 PM PST

    Has anyone actually received a fiat withdraw from bitfinex? People are starting to talk about getting lawyers and law enforcement involved. Just wondering how common this problem is..

    submitted by /u/mcryptofan
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