Cryptocurrency Weekly Skeptics Discussion thread - February 4, 2018 |
- Weekly Skeptics Discussion thread - February 4, 2018
- If you think banks/credit companies are banning crypto purchases to protect their customers, I have a bridge to sell you.
- Why I believe Seele ICO might be a Scam. Hopefully we can clear up some things.
- Want to start fresh after the crypto crash? Here is a comprehensive guide on how to invest and prosper over the long term.
- This is not a bubble. This was not a crash. This is just the beginning.
- This is me refreshing my portfolio every single second...
- Hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger, which sold over one million devices last year, has alerted its users to a major attack vector that’s recently been discovered.
- Congrats on this, seriously.
- My parents are proud of me.
- ERC20 Token "Monero Gold" Just Pulled an Exit Scam of Hundred of Thousands of Dollars by Minting Trillions of Tokens, Thanks to the Integer Overflow Problem in Ethereum's Solidity
- Huge Litecoin announcement lifts the cryptocurrency...
- Charlie Lee: LitePal a new payment processor focussed on LiteCoin payments and wants cooperate with PayPal, WesternUnion
- Daily General Discussion - February 4, 2018
- Billionaire whales have begun moving to Puerto Rico en masse for tax avoidance: aim to build crypto cities
- Davor coin gets Cease and Desist Notice from Texas State Securities Board It was one of the biggest lending platform next to Bitconnect. Why do people put money in such totally unbelievable guaranteed return schemes?
- Speculative; Mass adoption will happen when mainstream addresses blockchain as technological innovation instead of cryptocurrency as a financial innovation
- Finished my crypto clock just in time to watch Bitcoin moon.
- Aeternity Blockchain holding through the week
- Canada approves FIRST blockchain ETF fund as bitcoin price continues to tumble
- Fun fact: Slush, the creator of TREZOR and Slushpool got hacked in 2012 and lost ~3000BTC. This prompted him to create the world's first hardware wallet
- IOTA’s Tangle Protocol to Transform Taipei into a Smart City
- Vitalik Buterin Gifts $2.4 Million of Ether to SENS Research Foundation
- Russia Urges 4 Other Countries to Develop Common Approach to Cryptocurrencies
- I wonder if people that constantly make post about Nano(xrb) , brought at $35. Or $0.035
- Elastos (ELA) - Flying under the radar, but not for long
Weekly Skeptics Discussion thread - February 4, 2018 Posted: 03 Feb 2018 10:13 PM PST Welcome to the Weekly Skeptics Discussion thread. The goal of this thread is to go against the norm by bringing people out of their comfort zones through focused on critical discussion only. It will be posted every Sunday and prioritized over the Daily General Discussion thread. Guidelines:
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Thank you in advance for your participation. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 11:51 AM PST I'm legitimately blown away how many people I see defending the banks/credit companies banning crypto purchases as some type of attempt to protect their customers from a volatile market. Credit is predatory by nature. The bank doesn't care when you max your card out on alcohol, designer clothes, gambling, or any other worthless and risky commodity. Your bank doesn't give one single tiny little shit about you in any way beyond your capacity to generate revenue. You are a revenue generating unit and nothing more, end of story. They are building artificial barriers to crypto because they view it as a direct and fundamental threat to their industries... and with good reason, because it is. The reality is anyone who invests wisely in crypto right now is going to make a significant ROI over the next few years, opening up the opportunity to pay off large balances, which decreases the revenue they earn from interest. This is nothing more than a desperate attempt at self preservation. Again I would encourage anyone who has their bank or credit card company create a barrier for them to purchase crypto, to immediately end doing business with that institution and make sure they know why. If my bank halts my purchases, I'll liquidate my account and close it the same day. Same goes with my credit cards, they will get cut up and never used again. DON'T bend over for them. EDIT: Also massive downvoting of anti-banking sentiment and massive upvoting of the 'banks are looking out for you, this is a good thing' sentiment. The shill bots are out in force. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Why I believe Seele ICO might be a Scam. Hopefully we can clear up some things. Posted: 03 Feb 2018 08:09 PM PST So for people who are not in the loop, here is what happend: In their telegram they had many "Admins" at least two (@seelesupport and @nicsmith) of them did private presale deals and stole more than 2 million in ETH. https://etherscan.io/address/0xb3239ef7a0fc08d56402a44a5367b8cddaf295b8 These people got removed from the telegram group as "admins". I then looked into the website. Turns out its only a few weeks old, as you can see here: https://www.whois.com/whois/seele.pro Keep an eye on the email: yuming@YinSiBaoHu.AliYun.com IF you do some digging you find this: https://db.aa419.org/fakebanksview.php?key=113728 Check the contact email for technical/billing/admin and see who it is. Do a goolge search on YuMing@YinSiBaoHu.AliYun.com Comes up with many scam affiliated with this email address going back as 2014 Go online and search for dig (this is a DNS record lister) do a dig seele.pro https://toolbox.googleapps.com/apps/dig/ Type in seele.pro and you get seele.pro. IN A ;ANSWER seele.pro. 599 IN A 13.124.132.7 ;AUTHORITY ;ADDITIONAL there is no email server set up, you should get an MX record when there is an email (when email is involved, there is more trace of IP Addresses, signatures, relays, etc..) I would expect a project like this to be using their domain email. Instead they seem to use info@chinaUKblockchain.org which relates to website huigong.info I havnt went further into the rabbithole but please people should know this before they invest. edit: @nicsmith socially engineered @rebecca666 to become an admin https://i.imgur.com/l2HekTq.jpg [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 07:03 AM PST Well its happened, the crypto market just experienced the worst crash since 2014, the bubble has burst. The idiocy of newbies FOMO-ing into anything with low nominal value lead to endless twitter timelines like this, and now nobody has any idea where the market settles. What do you do now? In the following weeks it will be a good time to rethink your investment approach and how you arrive at your decisions. Just buying whatever is shilled on Twitter or Reddit and jumping from one crypto to another isn't going to work like it did these last two months. The good news is that we're finally back closer and closer to our long term moving average which is much more healthy for entrants, the bad news is that the fear might continue compounding if outstanding issues are not dealt with. Tether is the big concern for me personally for reasons I've stated many times, but some relief in the short term may come if the SEC and CFTC meeting on February 6th goes well. Nobody really knows where the bottom is but I think we're now past the "irrational exhuberance" stage and we're entering a period of more serious inspection where cryptos will actually have to prove themselves as useful. I suspect hype artists like CryptoNick and John McAfee will fall out of favor. But perhaps most importantly use this as a learning experience, don't try to point fingers now. The type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was rewarded in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a shillcoin, following hype..etc) could only ever lead to what we are experiencing now. Just like so many people jumped on the crypto bandwagon during the bull run, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon is to be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble. Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case will accept that they themselves with their own investing behavior were the real reason for the gross overvaluation of most cryptocurrencies, and the inevitable crash. So if you're looking for a fresh start after the massacre (or just want to get in now), here is a guide: Part A: Making a Investment StrategyThis is your money, put some effort into investing it with an actual strategy. Some simple yet essential advice that should apply to everyone, regardless of individual strategy:
First take some time to think about your ROI target, set your hold periods for each position and how much you are actually ready to risk losing. ROI targets A lot of young investors who are in crypto have unrealistic expectations about returns and risk. A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 5-10% ROI in a month to be unexciting. But its important to temper your hype and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year and how unlikely it is that we see 10x returns in the next year. What we saw recently was Greater Fool Theory in action. Those unexciting returns of 5-10% a month are much more of the norm, and much more healthy for an alternative investment class. You can think about setting a target in terms of the market ROI over a relevant holding period and then add or decrease based on your own risk profile. Example: Calculating a 2 year ROI target Lets say you want to hold for 2 years now, how could you set a realistic target to strive for? You could look at a historical 2 year return as a base, preferably during a period similar to what we're facing now. Now that we had a major correction, I think we can look at the two year period starting in 2015 after we had the 2014 crash. To calculate a 2 year CAGR starting in 2015:
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): [(18/5.5)1/2]-1 = 81% This annual return rate of 81% comes out to about 4.9% compounded monthly. This may not sound exciting to the lambo moon crowd, but it will keep you grounded in reality. You can aim for a higher return (say 2x of that 81% rate) if you choose to take on more risky propositions. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable. Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio based on your target. Risk Management Everything you buy in crypto is risky, but it still helps to think of these 3 risk categories:
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation for one, but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. The general starting point I would recommend is:
Some more core principles on risk management to consider:
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm), but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri). Rt = Rm +Ri The market risk is something you cannot avoid, it is essentially the risk that is carried by the entire market over things like regulations. What you can minimize though the Ri, the specific risks with your crypto. That will depend on the team composition, geographic risks (for example Chinese coins like NEO carry regulatory risks specific to China), competition within the space and likelihood of adoption and other factors, which I'll describe in Part 2: Crypto Picking Methodology. Portfolio Allocation Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
Think about your "Circle of Competence", your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Your ability to properly judge risk and potential is going to largely correlated to your understanding of the subject matter. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? If you don't understand anything about the tech when you read the Cardano paper, are you really able to determine how likely it is to be adopted? Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you have over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well. Part B: Crypto Picking Methodology (Due Dilligence)Do you struggle on how to fundamentally analyze cryptocurrencies? Here is a 3-step methodology to follow to perform your due dilligence: Step 1: Filtering and ResearchThere is so much out there that you can get overwhelmed. The best way to start is to think back to your own portfolio allocation strategy and what you would like to get more off. For example in my view enterprise-focused blockchain solutions will be important in the next few years, and so I look to create a list of various cryptos that are in that segment. Upfolio has brief descriptions of the top 100 cryptos and is filterable by categories, for example you can click the "Enterprise" category and you have a neat list of VEN, FCT, WTC...etc. Once you have a list of potential candidates, its time to read about them:
You can actually filter out a lot of scams and bad investments by simply keeping your eye out on the following red flags:
Step 2: Passing a potential pick through a checklistOnce you feel fairly confident that a pick is worth analyzing further, run them through a standardized checklist of questions. This is one I use, you can add other questions yourself:
The last question is the most important. This is where the riskiness of your crypto is evaluated, the Ri I talked about above. Here you should be able to accurate place the crypto into one of the three risk categories. I also like to run through this checklist of blockchain benefits and consider which specific properties of the blockchain are being used by the specific crypto to provide some increased utility over the current transactional method:
Step 3: Create a valuation modelYou don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do: Probablistic Scenario Valuation This is all about thinking of scenarios and probability, a helpful exercise in itself. For example: Bill Miller, a prominent value investor, wrote a probabilistic valuation case for Bitcoin in 2015. He looked at two possible scenarios for probabalistic valuation:
Combining those scenarios would give you the total expected market cap: (0.25% x 6.4 trillion) + (2.5% x 350 million). Divide this by the outstanding supply and you have your valuation. Metcalfe's Law Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic. We can alter this to crypto by thinking about it in terms of both users and transactions: For example, compare the Coinbase pairs:
Generally the higher the ratio, the higher the valuation given for each address/transaction. Market Cap to Industry comparisons Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry. More complex valuation models If you would like to get into more fleshed out models with Excel, I highly recommend Chris Burniske's blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto. Here is an Excel file example of OMG done by Nodar Janashia using Chris' model . You should create multiple scenarios with multiple assumptions, both positive and negative. Have a base scenario and then moderately optimistic/pessimistic and highly optimistic/pessimistic scenario. Personally I like to see at least a 50% upward potential before investing from my moderately pessimistic scenario, but you can set your own safety margin. The real beneficial thing about modelling isn't even the price or valuation comparisons it spits out, but that it forces you to think about why the coin has value and what your own assumption about the future are. For example the discount rate you apply to the net present utility formula drastically affects the valuation, and it reflects your own assumptions of how risky the crypto is. What exactly would be a reasonable discount rate? What about the digital economy you are assuming for the coin, what levers affects its size and adoption and how likely are your assumptions to come true? You'll be a drastically more intelligent investor if you think about the fundamental variables that give your coin the market cap you think it should hold. Summing it upThe time for lambo psychosis is over. But that's no reason to feel down, this is a new day and what many were waiting for. I've put together in one place here how to construct a portfolio allocation (taking into consideration risk and return targets), and how to go through a systematic crypto picking method. I'm won't tell you what to buy, you should always decide that for yourself and DYOR. But as long as you follow a rational and thorough methodology (feel free to modify anything I said above to suit your own needs) you will feel pretty good about your investments, even in times like these. Edit: Also get a crypto prediction ferret. You won't regret it. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This is not a bubble. This was not a crash. This is just the beginning. Posted: 03 Feb 2018 02:07 PM PST Mainstream financial media's attempt to compare the January 2018 cryptocurrency correction to the 1999/2000 dot-com burst shows their naivety when it comes to Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is in its infancy, maybe its early adopter phase. If Bitcoin was being used by any significant percentage of the population I would entertain this notion of a bubble crashing. We are just starting up the very long and steep lifecycle curve. And to prove this, even after this terrible correction, year over year, Bitcoin is still up several hundred percent. The comparison between the dot-com bubble bursting and the January 2018 correction is untrue and distorts history. We have not even begun to reach bubble phase. I am holding my crypto. I'll begin selling when my niece asks me if I have any Tron so she can buy a puppy. This is just the beginning. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This is me refreshing my portfolio every single second... Posted: 03 Feb 2018 11:15 AM PST
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Posted: 03 Feb 2018 08:26 PM PST
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Posted: 03 Feb 2018 07:44 PM PST
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Posted: 03 Feb 2018 03:44 PM PST This isn't a joke. I've only been investing in crypto since last May, but in that time I've been fairly successful. ...far more successful than I ever was investing in the stock market (even with the recent downturn). Along the way I've had conversations with both of my parents about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, NEO, Cardano, and others. More with my dad than with my mom, but my mom has become more and more interested as of late. Neither of them has ever dismissed crypto as being imaginary or fake or any of the other negative things we so often hear and today when I was talking about NEO (more specifically the accumulation of GAS from one's NEO holdings) they said they were proud of me. They've said they were proud of me before. Piano recitals, roles in musical theater, etc. This felt different, though I can't pinpoint why. Anyway they both feel that blockchain tech will have a big place in the future and my mom said she'd like to buy 1 NEO so that she can start learning about this new world. It feels great to have support when there are so many others who are quick to say that this is all a scam, bubble, fraud, or whatever other ugly term they might use for it. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 07:45 PM PST
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Huge Litecoin announcement lifts the cryptocurrency... Posted: 03 Feb 2018 08:41 PM PST
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Posted: 04 Feb 2018 01:34 AM PST
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Daily General Discussion - February 4, 2018 Posted: 03 Feb 2018 10:13 PM PST Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating. Disclaimer: Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and excercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here. PnDs and brigades are not sanctioned by the mod team in any way as they violate rule III. If you discover this thread is being used for these activities, bring it to the mod teams's notice via the modmail. Guidelines:
Rules:
Resources and Tools:
Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 07:39 AM PST
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Posted: 03 Feb 2018 10:06 PM PST I never get why people put money in such scams? Source: Texas State Securities Board Sends Cease and Desist Notice To Lending Platform DavorCoin (DAV) DavorCoin (DAV) Declared Ponzi: Cease and Desist Order Sent by State of Texas [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 11:16 PM PST
TLDR; Mainstream media has dirtied the word "cryptocurrency" with ambiguity and skepticism, when the powers that be are ready for mass adoption they will run soft news tech spotlights about "blockchain" showing off "this new chinese innovation" with a supply chain scanner making the entire concept much more tangible for viewers. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Finished my crypto clock just in time to watch Bitcoin moon. Posted: 03 Feb 2018 11:35 AM PST
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Aeternity Blockchain holding through the week Posted: 03 Feb 2018 11:31 PM PST
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Canada approves FIRST blockchain ETF fund as bitcoin price continues to tumble Posted: 03 Feb 2018 12:22 PM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 03 Feb 2018 01:49 PM PST sauce: he's saying it in this interview The interview is in Czech also this article from 2012 written by Vitalik Don't leave your private keys online, guys [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IOTA’s Tangle Protocol to Transform Taipei into a Smart City Posted: 03 Feb 2018 09:44 AM PST
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Vitalik Buterin Gifts $2.4 Million of Ether to SENS Research Foundation Posted: 03 Feb 2018 09:02 AM PST
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Russia Urges 4 Other Countries to Develop Common Approach to Cryptocurrencies Posted: 04 Feb 2018 01:38 AM PST
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I wonder if people that constantly make post about Nano(xrb) , brought at $35. Or $0.035 Posted: 03 Feb 2018 10:45 AM PST I'm probably gonna get a lot of shit for this post. But seriously, people that bought at 25 cents or under, are they still holding? Not gonna lie I wanted to buy some during the high of xrb, but the constant shilling made me not want to buy it. [link] [comments] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Elastos (ELA) - Flying under the radar, but not for long Posted: 03 Feb 2018 05:45 PM PST Elastos (ELA) is arguably the biggest coin with the brightest future that no one has heard of. Apart from a recent ad in Times Square (https://twitter.com/fayliela/status/958884043004657664), Elastos has been under the radar, but that is about to change. Elastos was founded in 2000 by Rong Chen and has recently made a blockchain breakthrough. What is Elastos? Elastos aims to create a new Internet, powered by blockchain technology. On this new Internet, people will be able to own digital assets and generate wealth from them. Today, there is a seemingly infinite supply of digital books, movies, music and games. But people do not necessarily own their digital property. You can purchase a digital book, for example, but you can't sell it to anyone else. So, do you really own it? Elastos wants to make digital assets scarce, identifiable and tradable. Property rights pave the way for wealth creation, and Elastos intends to build a new World Wide Web that respects those rights. Bitcoin = Trustworthy Ledger Ethereum = Trustworthy Ledger + Smart Contracts Elastos = Trustworthy Ledger + Smart Contracts + Monetizable Dapps and Digital Assets Who are Elastos backers/partners?
What is G3? Da Hongfei of NEO and Jihan Wu of Bitmain are both early investors and advisors to Elastos. Jihan Wu has committed to redirecting hashing power from Bitcoin mining to Elastos. G3 is a co-operation between NEO, Elastos and Bitmain who share a vision of a decentralized economy and smart web. Key features of the smart web include the virtual machine, runtime environments and trust zone, provided by Elastos and Bitmain, consensus provided by NEO and KYC provided by Ontology. G3 is meant to cooperate with Chinese government regulations and considering two of the leading figures of Chinese blockchain are involved (Jihan Wu and Da Hongfei), the likelihood that these projects will greatly succeed when the Chinese adopt crypto-friendly regulations is very, very high. China appears poised to change their cryptocurrency regulations soon: http://news.8btc.com/chinese-scholar-china-to-release-new-policy-on-cryptocurrency-and-ico-in-2018 How is the ELA token used? ELA tokens have a low coin supply, only 33 million in total will ever exist. ELA will be a staking token in later 2018. ELA holders will receive airdrops of all coins created on the Elastos ecosystem which they refer to as 'sugar dividends', there are more details to be released on this but further reading can be found in the white paper as well as: https://twitter.com/fayliela/status/959909521756848128, https://medium.com/@elastos/ecosystem-collaboration-governance-reward-mechanism-690d1adf331b Any tokens generated on Elastos will be required to lock 2-5% of their total token supply in ELA. This is huge considering dApps by companies as massive as Zapya (400m users), Huawei, Alibaba, and the unnamed massive gaming company (as well as more to come which has been hinted at many times by Elastos team) will need to generate their own tokens on Elastos or utilize ELA for transaction fees and creating digital assets on the Elastos blockchain. Resources
Where to buy? $ELA is purchasable on Huobi [link] [comments] |
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