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    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 04, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 04, 2018 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 04, 2018

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Bitcoin Manipulation Theory

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 05:49 PM PST

    I have a pretty crazy theory that I want to share but hopefully I won't break the record for downvotes in the process.

    I have been thinking for a while that something seems suspicious about the way the market has been moving lately. Isn't it strange how most of the coins pumping are all "cheap" as in they are less than $10 per coin? Isn't it strange how the crypto market cap grew by $58 billion today, but Bitcoin's market cap did not change at all? Then I had a realization. What if everyone is being played by a greater power. If you don't like conspiracy theories stop reading now.

    Everyone has been justifying the altcoin surges as Bitcoin taking a rest and dumb money chasing "cheap coins", but what if it is actually institutional investors using alt coins in order to accumulate Bitcoin. It makes a lot of sense. If you look at the dates the surges started

    • XRP - December 8
    • XLM - November 27
    • IOTA - November 6
    • ADA - November 27
    • XEM - December 8

    The futures trading press release went out on December 1, but what if some people knew that it would be approved ahead of time? If you are an investor with deep pockets you have a problem. You want to be able to bet on Bitcoin's future price, but you don't own enough Bitcoin to be able to manipulate the market (it is much easier to gamble when you control the outcome). You need a way to accumulate. Articles start to hit the press about how a small group of whales control a huge amount of the supply of Bitcoin and that makes it dangerous, etc. Big players are trying to convince people that Bitcoin is not a safe investment. Lots of bubble talk spreads. Jim Cramer says you are better off going to Vegas than buying Bitcoin. It doesn't scare the public away.

    These investors are usually the ones who get first stab at new assets. They get to invest early in companies, they get first stab at IPO shares when a company goes public, but with Bitcoin they are late to the party. How are they going to accumulate? They aren't stupid. They realize that driving the price of Bitcoin down too much to buy cheaper will scare people away from the market, and there is a limited amount of downside (it can only go as low as $0), but there is an infinite amount of upside. They also don't own enough Bitcoin to crash the market that far. So what do they do?

    The answer is: find alt coins that are "cheap". They know that if someone has to choose between a $15,000 dollar coin and a $1 coin they will choose the $1 coin every time. It is a psychological thing. Everyone just looks at the price and believes that $1 coin can also go to $15,000 one day. So if institutional money starts to buy up huge amounts of these "cheap coins" and gets the general public on board, they can then accumulate huge amounts of Bitcoin without the Bitcoin price changing at all because alt coins trade against Bitcoin! If you want to quadruple the amount of Bitcoin you have, it is much easier to pump up a smaller coin and sell it, than it is to drive down the Bitcoin price 4x to accumulate more for the same amount of USD.

    Take a look at some of the headlines lately. I suspect the press releases are also coordinated:

    • RIPPLE to become the new BITCOIN? Surge in new cryptocurrency as banks FAVOUR it
    • Bitcoin latest: Ripple's XRP is best-performing cryptocurrency with 380-fold increase in 2017
    • Bitcoin price WARNING: The cryptocurrency will burn out in SPECTACULAR CRASH
    • Bitcoin is Akin to Gambling, Causing Egypt to Ban It

    In addition to these alt coin surges, every time Bitcoin looks like it is going to break out a new sell wall appears and some market selling into the buys begins to drive the price back down. To me this is a very well executed effort to hold down Bitcoin's price while accumulating more by pumping alts. I noticed earlier today a $1 million buy wall on XLM that was moving up as the price increased. Is that how a normal person would buy up XLM? It is possible, but I doubt it.

    I know it seems wild, but if this theory is correct then it means at some point there will be a pretty fantastic dump with alt coins and a giant surge for Bitcoin.

    Of course, I could also just be thinking crazy thoughts.

    Also on steemit: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ccampbell/bitcoin-manipulation-theory

    submitted by /u/craigc123
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    Funny how quickly FOMO goes to FOLIA once you actually invest.

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 05:37 AM PST

    I think if you've got fear one way or the other you're going to have fear both ways. Probably best not to invest if it frightens you.

    submitted by /u/waltwalt
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    Your Daily Moon Math - 2018-01-03

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 04:43 PM PST

    Go to http://MoonMath.Win for Bitcoin Rainbow charts and the full Moon Math table.

    Sometimes I get asked what I mean when I say "good hunting." Sometimes I get asked how to hunt. I'm usually silent. Today, that changes a little.

    I'm not sure everyone around here will believe me if I say that I want everyone who follows this sub to be good at "hunting" and to have good hunts. I don't kind of mean that, I really mean it. It's why I post these charts and write all this stuff for you to consume. But specifically, I mean a lot of other things when I say "good hunting," too. Today I'm going to share a little more about what that means.

    You'll notice that I never say "good luck." "Good luck" is for assholes and gamblers. That's not what we're doing. Instead, we're trying to figure out how to find the best available opportunities. We're going to have method in the way we do that and we're going to be sporting about it. We're going to hunt.

    And then, out of nowhere comes all this XRP shit.

    This, the alt surge last summer and the present alt surge, all made sense when it was happening with Eth. That's not a full endorsement of Eth as an investment. It just means that it's a project that doesn't have its head up its own ass. Some people say Bitcoin has its head up its ass for various reasons... but it's simple for me to argue against them and it should be for you, too.

    Today, many users basically asked "Why all the hate on alts." Simply put, security, and it's just not "good hunting" when you win because you got lucky and made a good pick. That's just good luck and it makes you an asshole. So, shut the fuck up about your good luck. Nobody cares, and that's not what we do around here. It's not good for the game, and its' not good for your mind. Take your winnings and go to the beach, but don't hang around here and bitch at us because we don't want to talk about your lucky pick with you.

    If you're smart, and I know you are, then you're still asking, "but why?"

    I'll digress.

    Why?

    Scenario 1

    Let's talk about Bitcoin Barbra (BB). BB likes money and cracking. BB is good at it, too. To BB, Bitcoin, the protocol and the wallets that contain large sums of bitcoin, are a giant honey pot. BB doesn't have to work, because she already has a lot of bitcoin, and mining hardware. All the money just flows in, and she can do whatever she wants. Some time ago, though, BB noticed that she wasn't making any progress using her resources to crack open bitcoin. So, she decided it would be more fun and profitable to go after projects that don't know as much about what they're doing.

    Scenario 2

    While BB is cracking away on a recent litecoin fork Jamie Diamon (JD) is evaluating the blockchain for possible use at his bank. JD mulls over the technology and decides that he can create his own implementation that handles international transactions more efficiently and securely than the current banking model.

    When JD goes to his IT security guys with this one of them mentions his friend BB, who would love to snatch transactions from CHASE and pwn JD.

    JD thinks about it and says he'll "just hire the best people in the industry to pwn BB." Then the ITSec guys all say that those guys are already working on Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that those people all hate him. BB hates him too. Everyone hates JD, even his own ITSec guys.

    JD decides that Bitcoin is "fucking stupid" and bitches about it whenever someone brings it up.

    How?

    Security is maintained by the hash rate and the development teams that commit changes to the project. There aren't a lot of those resources to go around and they stay focused on the best most profitable options.

    In Conclusion

    Basically, when you buy alts, you're being an uniformed JD, in almost all cases. At least JD knows to ask his ITSec guys and to stay the fuck out of it. There are some good projects out there, but you must be relatively informed to see past the marketing and BS.

    The alt that surges next will always be a gamble, but when the reckoning comes for it there will be a storm that will never resolve itself. Research the DAO... and that's Ethereum, which I do think is a good project. None of the other alts even come close.

    That DAO shit will never happen to Bitcoin. know why? because it's best in class, by far. Bitcoin Core doesn't fuck up. It just doesn't. Last fuckup happened just after Satoshi disappeared, and that was the last one. Nobody but core ever knew enough about it, either.

    Transaction malleability bug is probably the last "whoopsie daisy" we'll see from core.

    When you bet on other coins you need to recognize all the risks involved. Security is almost always forgotten in that process. Also, consider that as security features are added to bitcoin vulnerabilities are exposed in alts. As this space develops the hacks against alts will increase in intensity and frequency, and the hackers will be using knowledge that has been discovered and proven by Bitcoin Core. Bitcoin doesn't face attackers armed with more knowledge than the team already possess. No other team can be sure of that. Maybe Eth, but that's more of a spectrum issue. The avenues of attack against Eth are much wider and more varied.

    Also, it's impossible to know when and which alt will implode/explode. So, just stay the hell out of it.

    Principles:

    • Buy assets with real and identifiable quality
    • Understand what it is you are buying
    • Sell assets that have no discernable quality
    • Sell things you don't understand
    • Do not trust marketing
    • Follow your plan

    Good hunting

    Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts

    Label 7-day Performance 30-day Performance 60-day Performance 90-day Performance 2017 - Present Performance 2016 - Present Performance 2015 - Present Performance 2014 - Present Performance 2013 - Present Performance 2012 - Present Performance 2011 - Present Performance July 2010 - Present Performance
    Starting Price USD $15,378.28 $11,616.85 $7,387.00 $4,322.76 $997.69 $434.46 $313.92 $770.44 $13.30 $5.27 $0.30 $0.09
    Compounding Daily Periodic Rate -0.23% 0.89% 1.20% 1.40% 0.74% 0.49% 0.35% 0.20% 0.39% 0.36% 0.42% 0.44%
    Over $20,000.00 on Never!!! 2018-02-03 2018-01-25 2018-01-22 2018-02-08 2018-02-27 2018-03-20 2018-05-18 2018-03-12 2018-03-16 2018-03-04 2018-02-28
    Over $31,622.78 on Never!!! 2018-03-27 2018-03-04 2018-02-23 2018-04-10 2018-06-02 2018-07-28 2018-12-29 2018-07-09 2018-07-20 2018-06-20 2018-06-11
    Over $100,000.00 on Never!!! 2018-08-04 2018-06-08 2018-05-17 2018-09-12 2019-01-25 2019-06-19 2020-07-16 2019-05-04 2019-06-02 2019-03-18 2019-02-26
    Over $1,000,000.00 on Never!!! 2019-04-21 2018-12-17 2018-10-28 2019-07-19 2020-05-13 2021-03-31 2023-08-20 2020-12-21 2021-02-24 2020-09-11 2020-07-28
    /u/nannal 's A+ on NEVER!!! 2018-10-20 2018-07-20 2018-06-17 2019-01-03 2019-12-03 NEVER!!! NEVER!!! 2020-12-20 NEVER!!! 2020-06-15 2020-04-01

    http://moonmath.win

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    SEC seeks public comment on Bitcoin ETF

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 07:48 PM PST

    https://www.coindesk.com/sec-publishes-cboe-etf-filing-for-public-comment/

    SEC seems to be moving fast on considering Bitcoin ETF. The world of crypto certainly moves at a faster speed than traditional investment. Since the Bitcoin Futures markets are established. I wouldn't be surprised if a Bitcoin ETF is approved soon.

    submitted by /u/firefoxadventure
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    Which of those exchanges inside the post did you hear about or have used before ? Trying to filer legit exchanges from fake/scam ones for trading.

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 06:07 AM PST

    Hey all,

    I need your help please in identifying the legit exchanges from the fake ones in the below list, I would appreciate if you could tell me (us) about your experience with any of those exchanges when you used it.

    1. gate.io
    2. binance.com
    3. yobit.net
    4. okex.com
    5. exx.com
    6. hksy.com
    7. qbtc.com
    8. zb.com
    9. acx.io
    10. hb.top
    11. shuzibi.com
    12. coincoming.com
    13. coinnest.co.kr
    14. bitafex.com
    15. btctrade.im

    Thanks in advance.

    Warmest regards, Fakhoury

    submitted by /u/Fakhoury
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    Hey! It's me again the 10 mBTC Challenge guy! And here's the update so far on what I'm doing.

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 09:53 AM PST

    Hi guys! Currently BTC is currently having a low market dominance. It's a great way to take advantage of the market and grow your BTC holdings while trading. I decided to embark on a 10mBTC challenge. My goal is to put in everything in a single trade and continuously trade until I reach 1BTC!

    I started early this year and you can find the original blog post here. The latest post can be found here.

    Feel free to provide comments and feedback regarding this. Once I reach 1 BTC, I plan on doing a raffle in my blog to share some of my earnings to some charity with the highest number of vote.

    submitted by /u/sraelgaiznaer
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    Is it more secure if I have 2FA enabled, let Chrome remember my passwords?

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 08:37 AM PST

    Yesterday there was a post about an ad for a site that was masked like Binance as the first result in google.

    I already let Chrome remember my passwords, since whoever gets them will also require the 2FA, is this more or less secure?

    submitted by /u/Vasallo7G
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    2017 taxes [USA]

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 06:12 AM PST

    I was wondering, how do you pay taxes on assets?

    Like I have about 0.8 BTC currently, but as of 12/31 it was worth more than what I had at the start of the year. I've not withdrawn it to my bank account yet, but I have moved it between exchanges and it's currently sitting in a wallet on my computer as of a week ago.

    Do I pay taxes on it even though I didn't withdraw it? Or do I wait til it's in my bank account?

    EDIT:

    More specifically, if I buy $2000 of BTC, sell for $4000, then buy again for $3980 and hold past the end of the year, how much tax do I pay, assuming no fees?

    Do I pay tax on 20$ or on $2000? Does it count as a short term gain if I put the money back into bitcoin?

    submitted by /u/stepsword
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    Mtgox records - where to get them

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 03:58 AM PST

    I bought coins back in the day on mtgox. Want to get the records for tax write offs. Anyone know where i can get them?

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/voltairestare
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    CFTC Releases Statement on Oversight of and Approach to Virtual Currency Futures Markets

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 10:05 AM PST

    http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/giancarlostatement010418

    ""Undoubtedly, virtual currency and virtual currency derivatives present both significant opportunities and challenges. As a Federal market regulator, the CFTC is cognizant of the considerable risks of virtual currencies like Bitcoin. In addition to the nascent stage of the technology itself, risks associated with virtual currencies include: operational risks of unregulated and unsupervised trading platforms; cybersecurity risks of hackable trading platforms and virtual currency wallets; speculative risks of extremely volatile price moves; and fraud and manipulation risks through traditional market abuses of pump and dump schemes, insider trading, false disclosure, Ponzi schemes and other forms of investor fraud and market manipulation."

    submitted by /u/thussprach
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    People asking me questions about crypto, daily...

    Posted: 04 Jan 2018 09:53 AM PST

    Hi there,

    I'm skywalk819, moderator here. I have a question to ask you all. Since the recent price surge in Bitcoin and since most people who know me personaly know that I'm in the bitcoin field since 2009. They all IM to ask advices on what coin to buy, how`s my investments doing, etc.

    My question here is how much would you guys charge someone to talk to you and ask questions about crypto?

    Also if you would be asked to invest for someone, how much would charge them in fees?

    A friend told me I should charge by the minute? is that even to be considered?

    Also from 2.5% to 15% fees to take care of someone portfolio?

    submitted by /u/skywalk819
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    Bitcoin Price Is Up As Cryptocurrency Markets Reach Record Valuation

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 11:09 PM PST

    A Discussion on the Implications of the Rise of Alts on BTC's Price

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 06:01 PM PST

    Hi everyone,

    I know that members on this sub tend to get angry when users talk about alts, but this is more of a conversation about the impact of fund flows and exchange pairing on BTC, so bear with me. I personally found the rise of alts over the past few weeks quite unsettling. I have never strayed from ETH and BTC, and seeing all of these 100%+ moves had me questioning whether the masses were simply seeking quick cash without any regard for a coin's devteam, value proposition, or any other rational cause for interest. I still believe this to be the case for the vast majority of coins, but I am not making this thread to thrash alt-followers. Let's get to BTC.

    The amount of capital that has flowed into cryptocurrencies recently is astounding. Over the past month, the global market cap of all cryptocurrencies has risen 118% from $340b to $740b. While a large percentage of this increase has certainly gone to alts, let's take a step back. The amount of money invested in this space has more than doubled in a month. Demand is through the roof. Now, while a large number of investors (or speculators) are seeking the highest return in alts, I have to think to myself that this phenomenon has to end in a bang for BTC. In a good way.

    Almost every exchange pairs alts against BTC or ETH. The average investor buys BTC, transfers it to an exchange, and buys up all the $0.10 coins their pockets can fill. I know there are other ways to do so, but I'm speaking in general terms because this is what is relevant for the masses. At some point, all of this capital will come back to BTC. Whether that's due to profit taking or the emergence of less attractive returns in alt-land is anyone's best guess, but either way, there is a pool of capital more than 100% bigger than it was in early December that will likely make its way through BTC (or ETH, or LTC, but you get the point). We don't need the alts to collapse for BTC to regain dominance. Some people will say, "Ok, I'll take my 1,000% return and get out", and they will cash out through bitcoin. Others will get tired/scared of risking their entire crypto portfolio on high-vol coins and redistribute their holdings to maintain a larger percentage in more stable, proven coins. In any case, the point I'm making is that we should be jumping for joy at all of this new capital in cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin is both the gate keeper and the exit door.

    submitted by /u/dummyinasuit
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    Why is everyone of my wallets on Bittrex now under maintenance ?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 06:18 PM PST

    I've deposited money to Kraken successfully but they wont update my balance?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 04:29 PM PST

    Is this a common glitch? I've used them before and usually the balance gets updated straight away. There support is awful as they ironically only replied recently about a ticket I issued a month ago over an ETH delay, and now im stuck missing gains as I see so many cryptos taking off.

    How hard can it be for a exchange to do this? Balance should be updated automatically. Its been 8 hours and the balance still has not updated even though it shows my money has been received successfully in the funding section? I contacted there twitter but nothing...

    submitted by /u/AllHailTheCATS
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    Comparing the September and December market corrections

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 10:11 AM PST

    Hey everyone! I'm relatively new to the bitcoin market and enjoy this sub so far.

    Looking back at the 1D candles from the September correction, there are definitely some similarities (and differences) with the recent December correction. Can we look at this pattern, if you can call it a pattern, to make judgments on future prices? Or is it irrelevant?

    I'm not here to give my TA/opinions, just to hear yours. Let me know what you all observe, think, predict, etc.!

    submitted by /u/N831Y
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    I feel like we've seen all this before

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 01:10 PM PST

    Comparing a 5 month window around the 2013 runup and today, on their face, the two charts look pretty dang similar.

    2013

    Now

    What happened next for the 2013-2015 timeline wasn't too exciting. Anyone else worry we're in for another long slow slide?

    submitted by /u/BrokenGlassEverywher
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    Brokers offering Crypto for USA?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 12:37 PM PST

    Setting up my Meta Trader 4 Account and while doing so I am needing to find a Broker that does Cryptocurrency at a reasonable enough spread and also offers to people in the US.. I have heard of Pepperstone, Evolve, and AVA Trader (even though AVA doesnt offer for the US..) Does anyone have any experience with this or currently use one they can recommend?

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/HOVA89
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    What are good crypto price data websites other than coinmarketcap?

    Posted: 03 Jan 2018 03:59 PM PST

    Best if there can be certain screening function

    submitted by /u/john_legend_
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