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    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, January 13, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

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    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, January 13, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Saturday, January 13, 2018

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 08:06 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Kraken, finally back up!!!

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 03:25 AM PST

    https://www.kraken.com/

    EDIT

    • "finally back up" is an over statement.
    • Withdrawals are blocked for 12 hours
    submitted by /u/CryptoKite
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    Dear All Exchanges: Here's How Not to Pull a Kraken

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 05:03 PM PST

    Let's be clear from the beginning: There's no excuse for Kraken's downtime. From both technology and management (but mostly management), we are seeing a systematic failure to plan and to execute. I'm hoping that this post will help you and other exchanges think about how to do these kinds of rollouts in the future.

    So let's talk about how real exchanges launch major upgrades, using CME as a model. (Not that they're perfect either, but they're light years ahead of crypto exchanges.)

    First, you maintain two test environments. The "normal" environment is always available, and is primarily for the benefit of your users and the stability of your markets. This is where people test their bots and 3rd-party tools to make sure they don't accidentally go crazy. Make sure to actually populate this market with data (you can replay old captured data from your live markets). Without that replay data, it's useless for testing (I'm looking at you, Bitmex and GDAX).

    The "new release" environment is where you deploy new features before you launch. This is for the benefit of both you and your users. On your end, you'll catch bugs so that you won't have "an elusive bug that's holding up launch" and 36 hours of downtime. On your users' end, they will be able to confirm that their GUIs, third-party tools, and bots are ready to go when you move from testing to production. Again, you must actually send real data to this environment so that everyone can test appropriately.

    So now that you've tested internally and tested in the new release environment, you're ready to roll out a new version of your site, right? No! Do not roll out an upgrade to your whole site at once. You know those shitty pairs like REP/CAD that have 2 trades all day? Roll out to those first! Since all of your pairs run on separate instances of your trading engine (they do, right??) you will be able to confirm that you won't have any problems when you upgrade your major pairs.

    In the case when you're rolling out an upgrade to your market data feeds, you can't really upgrade pairs one-by-one. Instead, run your new feeds and old feeds both at the same time and give users at least a few weeks to migrate their tools and bots over to the new feeds.

    Finally, when you really screw up like this, publish a clear post-mortem. Kraken, you somehow sweet-talked your way into being one of the exchanges that the CME Futures settle against. This downtime isn't just an embarrassment to you, it's an embarrassment to the whole community and it's disruptive to the whole market. At least you can partially redeem yourself by explaining in detail what happened so everyone can learn from your mistake. Think of it as practice -- if the market was more mature, you would be explaining the bug to a regulatory body, so count yourself lucky that for now you're only explaining to the community.

    submitted by /u/hazard02
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    Latest status from Kraken: We are preparing to relaunch the site shortly. All orders have been canceled. More details to come soon. Jan 13, 09:32 UTC

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 01:40 AM PST

    Your Daily Moon Math - 2018-01-12

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 06:11 PM PST

    Looking at yesterday's post again, it's apparent that clarification is needed.

    We have Lightning. We have Segwit. We have the best development team with the most experience implementing their own vision.

    This is not a political debate.

    This is a discussion about software engineering that everyone can participate in. You can talk about it, and you can vote with your dollars. How you decide to participate in it will have financial implications no matter what you do.

    Even though this is a conversation that you are forced to participate in, it does still have a lot of nuance and complication. Segwit and Lightning aren't understood. Motivations for their creation don't seem to be understood. Their actual implementations aren't understood at all. The distinctions between Core's implementations and Altcoin implementations isn't understood. Adoption rates of Segwit aren't understood. Leaving Segwit out of the Core wallet GUI isn't understood. The rate of Segwit adoption isn't understood. The implications of doubling the rate of growth of the blockchain with a single change aren't understood... Lots of things are not understood and Core is busier solving issues than they are explaining them to people who don't understand the issues they are solving.

    That's too much to research: I don't care

    I'm trying to get people engaged in the conversation so they can find motivation to understand. I, we, need communicate with people who disagree with us to do that. I, we, want and need to hear complete and sensible arguments that make us rethink our positions and complete our perspectives. It doesn't make you right to be that person. It also doesn't make you wrong. However, we do need faith that Core knows what the hell they are doing. If we don't have that faith, then we need a good explanation, because all of them are at the very top of their field and doing the very best work.

    How do you know that Core is best in class

    I read the commit history and the commit logs, and you can too. I read the source code, and you can too. I see the bug reports, and you can too. I review the conversations they have, and you can too.

    No other blockchain project I'm aware of is operating at this high of a level. If you disagree with that, I need to see you reference these sources. Otherwise, your disagreement is just your opinion. Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. Do your homework. Point at the specific problems you're observing. It's not enough to have an opinion; you need to have a reason why.

    Why is Core leveraging economic pressure onto the community adopt their scaling solutions?

    The central premise of the blockchain as a solution for the Byzantine General's Problem is that the collective we can continue forcing future generations to store and re-record the transactions of the past. There are mathematically proven realities that force design choices onto software developers who are aware of this. One rule is that you cannot have or imply a rate of storage that grows at a logarithmic rate.

    You can argue that the rate of growth for the blockchain is irrelevant because storage density increases with Moore's Law, Logarithmically or exponentially. That argument does negate the above first rule. However, Bitcoin Core devs are following the implications that they see when they make design choices, and not just what is shown when they write out the implications of their choices using Big O notation.

    What does it mean or imply when you say that Core is looking at more than just the Big O notation?

    Doubling the rate of growth of the blockchain implies a logarithmic increase in the size of the blockchain through an analysis using Big O notation against the source code. Big O notation only shows a linear change. Objectively, the blockchain will only grow at a linear rate.

    However, we see that a logarithmic change is implied. The logarithmic rate of growth is observed outside of the source code. We can see pieces of it in the issues that are filed in GitHub and the conversations devs have about the changes they want to make. What we see when we're observing the software from the outside is a singe change that doubles the rate of growth of the blockchain.

    Big O says it's linear change, but we observe an exponential change. Why?

    If we accept that the only way to increase the transaction limit is to increase the required size of the storage medium, that's what we'll do. After some period the blocks will fill up again and we'll be back to where we started. Economic pressure will again force developers to increase the block size. So, to meaningfully change it they double the block size again. This scaling problem will increase at some regular interval. That shows exponential growth in the size of the block chain.

    The block size proposal is not a solution to the scaling problem, it's capitulation to the problem. That's the solution you see implemented by most blockchains today, and it's why they'll all eventually fail.

    So, if you can't safely solve the problem by increasing the block size then how do you solve it?

    You solve it by sharing the responsibility with other block chains and optimizing the way you store information in the block space you already have. That's Segwit and Lightning. There may be, and probably will be, more solutions that don't require increasing the block size in the future.

    Why is everyone bitching about it, then?

    The problem with these solutions are that they require the community to participate in the process. It forces people who are economically rewarded by their participation, to make changes in how they interact with Bitcoin.

    I must pay to transfer my coins to a Segwit wallet that utilizes lightning if I want free transactions. That's going to cost money and be a pain in the ass.

    Coinbase must hire developers to implement these solutions. Then it must pay people to maintain them. Obviously, they'd rather not do that. So, they tried to pass that responsibility off to everyone else. Finally, today, they capitulated. They were successfully forced to participate by contributing directly to the Bitcoin ecosystem instead of relentlessly and freely profiting from it.

    Conclusion

    The economic pressure Core is placing on vendors is part of the software solution to the scaling problem, and it's working. Today, Brain Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, announced that Coinbase is working on Segwit, and possibly Lightning.

    https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/951869357931425792

    The implications are clear. When Coinbase implements Segwit the transaction backlog will be substantially reduced.

    I keep saying that the realization that Core was always right will come in waves. This is wave one. The following waves will negatively impact all alts, save maybe one or two.

    Mainstream acceptance isn't just allowing Bitcoin to exist, buy, and hodl. Mainstream acceptance is integrating directly into a single established backbone via software and networks. Bitcoin is establishing a long-term presence as a financial backbone. That's lightning, and Coinbase, along with others, who will implement a viable business model on top of a single tool that outcompetes all banks and institutions that are trying to implement this, badly, for themselves.

    How many alts are going to have Segwit and lightning, and then have Coinbase integrate their business model into that? Not a lot. How many banks will do that? None, today. The question, rather, is which one, and which open blockchain will they choose to do that with?

    Good hunting.

    Principle:

    • Trust capable, motivated, and well compensated people
    • Do not participate in demagoguery

    Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts

    Label 7-day Performance 30-day Performance 60-day Performance 90-day Performance 2017 - Present Performance 2016 - Present Performance 2015 - Present Performance 2014 - Present Performance 2013 - Present Performance 2012 - Present Performance 2011 - Present Performance July 2010 - Present Performance
    From Date 43105 43082 43052 43022 42736 42370 42005 41640 41275 40909 40544 40377
    % Change $(0.18) $(0.16) $1.12 $1.38 $12.84 $30.79 $43.00 $16.93 $1,037.23 $2,621.15 $46,041.38 $160,986.35
    Daily Periodic Rate -2.64% -0.53% 1.87% 1.53% 3.42% 4.15% 3.88% 1.15% 56.46% 118.98% 1792.89% 5886.16%
    Over $25,190.00 on Never!!! Never!!! 2018-02-28 2018-03-14 2018-04-06 2018-05-18 2018-07-04 2018-11-12 2018-06-16 2018-06-24 2018-05-30 2018-05-22
    Over $56,234.13 on Never!!! Never!!! 2018-05-03 2018-06-05 2018-07-29 2018-11-06 2019-02-24 2019-12-26 2019-01-14 2019-02-04 2018-12-07 2018-11-21
    Over $1,000,000.00 on Never!!! Never!!! 2018-12-17 2019-03-30 2019-09-13 2020-07-14 2021-06-13 2024-01-01 2021-02-12 2021-04-18 2020-10-24 2020-09-06
    /u/nannal 's A+ on NEVER!!! NEVER!!! 2018-08-04 2018-10-20 2019-03-16 2020-03-19 NEVER!!! NEVER!!! NEVER!!! NEVER!!! 2020-09-08 2020-06-19

    http://moonmath.win

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    Kraken update: 'Order book data is not being displayed properly. Pausing trading while we investigate.'

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 04:11 AM PST

    Kraken is back with zero fees!

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 06:40 AM PST

    Kraken exchange is back, and as a small courtesy for failing us through the last few months, it is offering no fees for regular trading till the end of the month.

    submitted by /u/fccoelho
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    Kraken is waking up!

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 03:30 AM PST

    I just checked and https://www.kraken.com/ is not showing the maintenance announcement anymore.

    It's now showing the front page but images etc not working yet. Here's a screenshot https://imgur.com/T8hEzhk

    edit: a status update: Verifying - Systems are back online. The new trading engine is live. Withdrawals are temporarily suspended while we monitor for anomalies. Unleveraged trading is free for the remainder of the month. More details will be posted to the blog (https://blog.kraken.com/) momentarily. Jan 13, 11:30 UTC

    submitted by /u/sunndeeds
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    Why are coins moving in Kraken's wallet if they are "down for maintenance"?

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 12:31 AM PST

    Somebody posted this address as Kraken's:

    https://btc.com/1NDyJtNTjmwk5xPNhjgAMu4HDHigtobu1s

    Can anybody confirm?

    If it is in fact Kraken's, why are coins moving if they are "down for maintenance"?

    submitted by /u/arganam
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    50+ Hours is way too long for an upgrade, it seems something else could be going on at Kraken.com

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 12:56 AM PST

    I just don't see how Kraken.com can be offline for 50+ hours now. I've been in web development since 2001 and understand how things can get complicated, but this just doesn't make sense what's happening and how its being handled. I'm seriously wondering if they will ever come back online at all...

    submitted by /u/Bedroid
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    Dors anyone know the address of Kraken's office?

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 11:49 PM PST

    It's time to stand there as people did during the death of MtGox, to force the CEO to do two obvious things:

    • Revert all positions opened when they shut down their engine by surprise, making some users lose money because of Kraken's communication incompetence.
    • Relaunch the previous website very quickly (not necessarily the trade engine) to let people request withdrawals, and process them quickly.

    PS: sorry for the mistake in the title.

    submitted by /u/barthib
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    Korean Arbitrage WIN - My attempts to transact $50K of crypto safely with strangers 6K+ miles away

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 09:54 PM PST

    Live Knowledge base on Korean Arb and the $50K Forex limit

    I could be wrong, but my hunch is that there are a lot of Redditors in Korea who want to profit from the arbitrage but can't due to the overwhelming counterparty risk involved in dealing with strangers overseas. In addition, there are definitely Redditors

    Alas, given the upcoming tighter regulations, this window of opportunity in arbitrage may close soon at the individual "consumer" level.

    And so, to gather together those who want to find (and share) solutions to this problem, I will collect the knowledge contributions here and document my own journey in trying to figure this out.

    Latest Updates

    2017-01-13 8:45 - Reformatted and reorganized post. Added more to the Master Plan. BTW, does anyone have suggestions on how I can edit this post to reduce downvoting? I'm witnessing like a 1:4 downvote:upvote ratio which puzzles me because I only see an upside value to the reddit community.

     

    The Master Plan

    1. Choose a medium of trust (like escrow services) to manage counterparty risk. So far, I found Bitrated to be a promising option, but I'm open to alternate suggestions. BTW, i Just created my account on Jan 1st, and after linking some accounts, am already in the top 10% of arbitrators.

    2. Find a Redditor in Korea who joins this experiment to transact with me and allow me to publicly document and disclose our process (aside from his/her username, I will only disclose information that he/she explicitly permits). We will split profits evenly.

    3. Build a network of Redditors on Bitrated who will be a core group of Escrow mediators/abritrators handling bitcoin-based transactions between Redditors. Volunteers anyone?

    4. Maintain an updated list of these Redditors here. The idea is that this post will begin facilitating more trustworthy transactions and help drastically reduce counterparty risk.

    5. I'll document this journey while highlighting any new challenges we have to deal with (like how to document and manage the tax liabilities that come from this - always pay your taxes!).

     

    The Knowledge Base (and Rumors)

    Source contributions, corrections and suggestions welcomed!

    Fact/Rumor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Update Src Contributors
    Koreans have a $50K annual Forex (cash "export") limit '17-01-12
    Koreans daily Forex limit is $2K $3K without "transmission" '17-01-13 Ringobinderr
    Koreans daily Forex limit is $2K$3K-$10K with "transmission" '17-01-13 Ringobinderr, Gasolinux
    On Jan 20, temporary ban on new exchange accounts is lifted '17-01-13 1
    Koreans can exceed limits if there is use case justification, but this isn't feasible for most people '17-01-13 Gasolinux

     

    My background

    I'm in the USA and I – like Redditors in Korea – face the same counterparty risk in transacting with foreigners. My goal is to experiment until I find a process that is repeatable and reliable – a process that let's me safely transact with multiple strangers in Korea – while at the same time providing transparency that others may find beneficial.

     

    Disclaimer

    Nothing I post here is intended as advice or recommendations. They are simply a log of my personal discoveries and experiences. Attempting to do anything in this thread is done at your own risk and peril and may expose you to tax and legal risks due to the precarious regulatory state of cryptocurrencies. :)*

    submitted by /u/samtemp
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    Blockfolio alternative for Desktop: Moonitor

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 06:24 AM PST

    I've been using blockfolio for a long time, and since their issue with their server I've decided to build my own (After trying some alternative apps too, I didn't like any at that time).

    You can check it out on https://moonitor.io

    The pro is that your data are not saved into the cloud. I'm not gonna sell data. It use exchange API directly via websocket, and save what you need on your computer hard drive. Privacy is important for me, and I don't companies selling stuff about me online.

    Hope the app app will be useful for more people. This is my first desktop app, I've work hard to get something elegant. I know there is still bugs, but which app doesn't! And tons of updates will come.

    Thank you for reading, Best.

    submitted by /u/kumakote
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    The reason why I'm not scared at Kraken going down... Is that they only have one third of my trading money.

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 01:14 AM PST

    It's as simple as that guys. Diversify.

    (also, they are VC founded, in the bay area, full of competent people [assuming you can't hire incompetent people in that area/sector], hopefully they will be back shortly and they are not piercing the corporate veil by making fake statements about it being just a bug).

    Also Kraken, I know you are reading this: please please please have a huge post ready for when you come back online explaining what kind of software/hardware changes you made with all the nerdy details.

    submitted by /u/2013bitcoiner
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    Kraken down 36 hours

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 10:47 AM PST

    Last TradingView data was Jan 11 0642 UTC, still down as of Jan 12 1842 UTC

    submitted by /u/mrredditor79
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    Kraken is up...

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 03:50 AM PST

    Back online after 53 hours...

    submitted by /u/mrredditor79
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    Has anyone seen the price of bitcoin diamond BCD among different exchanges?

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 07:16 AM PST

    Binance - 207$ Kucoin - 580$ Coinnnest - 127$ Average price = 33$

    Can someone explain how does this happen? Would it be possible to buy in one exchange and sell in another one that pays better?

    submitted by /u/TheClimber7
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    Korea Arbitrage Question

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 06:59 AM PST

    I have some friends/family in Korea who wants to purchase Bitcoins through me since its cheaper to purchase them in the US. They would be wire transferring funds into my bank account in the US from Korea and then I would purchase BTC or whatever coin they want and then transferring it into their wallets in Korea. There would be proof where the funds come from since they are wired from personal banks (not anonymous) in Korea when I need to file taxes but I'm afraid if there is a limit on how much I can receive from Korea without causing issues to the IRS since it would add up from multiple people requesting to purchase.

    submitted by /u/wjw88
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    Disabled Withdraws on Kraken

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 04:48 AM PST

    Limit orders don't get filled

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 04:05 AM PST

    Hello

    When placing a limit sell or buy on Bitstamp & GDAX at the current relevant Bid/Ask price as provided by the ticker API, I've found that if the price moves even 0.05% the orders will sit on the orderbook unfilled for a very long time, if getting filled at all.

    If I was to place an order at 0.05% UNDER the current Bid price or 0.05% OVER the current Ask price, would they be more likely to be filled instantly?

    Thank you

    submitted by /u/PM_ME_WELSH_STUFF
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    Kraken an exit scam? Bull shit!

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 03:44 AM PST

    It's like everywhere I hear this, and it FUDs me up so much, that I also consider withdrawing everything as soon as they get back online, given they come back.

    But what is an exit scam and could Kraken be one? Not that I can think of.

    Wikipedia: "An exit scam is a confidence trick where an established (usually illegal) business, e.g. a seller of drugs, stops shipping orders while continuing to receive payment for new orders. If the entity had a good reputation, then it can take some time before it is widely recognized that orders are not shipping, and the entity can then make off with the money paid for unshipped orders."

    So for Kraken to be an exit scam, it should trick people to send it funds, while it is still not working. Which is not the case!

    If they wanted to pull an exit scam, they would let people keep depositing, but block or impede withdrawals. That is something that I see starting at other exchanges, by making KYC very hard during withdrawals for example, but I haven't seen this at Kraken.

    Kraken needs to get its shit together and hire some professional people to manage and develope their systems, otherwise withdrawing all my funds is indeed what I need to do. But all the FUD about malicious intent, without any logic behind it or any proof, is not helping anyone!

    But hey, maybe I'm just not seeing it as clear as some others, so please drop any viable exit scam methods that could apply in the comments. I'm curious where all the rumours are originating from.

    submitted by /u/nl-x
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    Kraken is back online... finally..

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 03:40 AM PST

    Systems are back online. The new trading engine is live. Withdrawals are temporarily suspended while we monitor for anomalies. Unleveraged trading is free for the remainder of the month. More details will be posted to the blog (https://blog.kraken.com/) momentarily. Posted 8 minutes ago. Jan 13, 2018 - 11:30 UTC

    submitted by /u/smallroofthatcher
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    What's the point of "claiming" a position on Bitfinex?

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 02:38 AM PST

    As it makes you buy the coin as a market buy, can't you just achieve the same thing with less trading fees by closing the position and using the profit to buy the coins with a limit order?

    submitted by /u/Megabiquette
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    When will more exchanges give users their Bitcoin Diamond?

    Posted: 13 Jan 2018 02:21 AM PST

    Exchanges like Bitfinex or Bittrex or Poloniex did not distribute any BCD. Do you think they will? They did BTG, why would they not distribute this one?

    submitted by /u/mmm-ewww
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    Could a Chinese New Year pump be in store for us?

    Posted: 12 Jan 2018 07:35 PM PST
    Read more
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