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    Wednesday, December 13, 2017

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 13, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 13, 2017 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 13, 2017

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

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    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Contrarian opinion: maybe you SHOULD double down on cryptos

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 06:44 PM PST

    Getting really tired of cliche bullshit "put a penny a weak in the bitcoin piggybank" grandma advice that I see around, mostly panic packaged "voice of sanity". Its old and it doesn't contribute shit. Frankly if you were under any illusion about whether you're playing with fire, then you shouldn't have ANY money in bitcoins full stop, go buy ETFs and get out with your greed/FOMO.

    Marginal utility: $10,000 is not the same to everyone, upside and downside.

    Context: I'm a young 20s guy who at one point staked 75% of my savings into bitcoin, I live in a country with one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world.

    It would take me 8 years of saving in my current frugal life style and decent paid job to get a down payment for a house here in a country with one the most expensive real estate market in the world. So with my humble savings I went all in on bitcoins at $3000 USD price at time a when people were "waiting for the dip"/"buy some shitcoins" (but guess what, good things are expensive). Yes I could have lost it all, but it wouldn't set me back nearly as much as the potential upsides I thought, I would have been another millennial renter either way. Now I've cashed out to break even, and closing in on a starter house deposit with the remainder, that will give me a massive start in life.

    The moral of the story isn't that: hey I haven't got burnt yet so you won't either, thats not true, the moral of the story is that if you're gonna "lose" without the gamble then at least take a gamble, but don't pretend you're "playing" your gamble. As the Chinese proverb goes, the barefoot don't fear those with shoes, if you can't go too much lower, double down on something with unlimited upside, if you're a serf in europe, then go to the new world, same idea.

    For the record I believe bitcoin is in a bubble, but some of you confuse a bubble AND its gonna pop soon, its a leap, EMH is not at play here, and either way you can't predict the future.

    Assess the "rewards" of a win and the "damage" of a loss its different depends on your individual circumstances, don't kid yourself there's "responsible gambling" if you only put $50 a week or some bullshit, have a entrance range and exit range with staggered points that aren't arbitrary and grow some balls to stick to it unemotionally. Go reflect which one you are, and either double down or GTFO now.

    submitted by /u/Dietsodalol
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    Your Daily Moon Math - 2017-12-13

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 09:34 AM PST

    If futures markets were supposed to introduce stability to Bitcoin, they're failing terribly. All measures of stability have decayed to their lowest observed levels in some time.

    http://bitcoinstability.github.io/bitcoinstability/#/stability

    Volume in those markets are low, and it doesn't appear to be gaining traction. If Wall Street wants to play in these waters it will need to do more than gamble on the price. They need to get skin in the game. When, not if, that happens it's going to make the last 12 months look like a vacation cruise.

    The first rainbow chart has become so steep that I needed to move the position of the entire rainbow down. I'll eventually find a better way to anchor that against the price. For now, I'm just trying to keep as much of the lower extremes in the rainbow as possible.

    The change has pushed the price action solidly into the dark orange section of the rainbow. I may need to start posting two versions of that chart. This one has heavily deviated from /u/azop 's creation, which many people use as a stable way to review and compare price performance.

    I've removed the Bull Trend charts because they've effectively become identical to the 2017 trend. However, the bands on the 2017 chart have been adjusted to match the bands on the former bull trend chart. Basically, those two charts have been fully merged. When I started making the 2017 chart the CDPR was 0.60%. That's how far we've moved the price. It only took a couple months to dwarf the performance of an already stellar year.

    The Insane Bull Run rate has been dropped from 1.4% to 1.25% and the bands have been tightened. This seems to better frame the price performance we've seen. I think we've narrowly avoided the near-term disaster scenario of sustained performance over 1.5%. /u/_chewtoy_ can sigh a sigh of relief.

    1.2% is still nuts, but we have and can continue to press on at this rate for months at a time.

    Azop's Rainbow Charts

    Moon Math Table

    • Closing Price: 17,276.39 USD
    Label 30-day Performance 60-day Performance 90-day Performance 2017 - Present Performance 2016 - Present Performance 2015 - Present Performance 2014 - Present Performance 2013 - Present Performance 2012 - Present Performance 2011 - Present Performance July 2010 - Present Performance
    From Date 2017-11-12 2017-10-13 2017-09-13 2017-01-01 2016-01-01 2015-01-01 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 2011-01-01 2010-07-18
    Starting Price USD $5,716.30 $5,563.81 $3,961.27 $997.73 $432.00 $312.00 $804.00 $12.50 $5.27 $0.30 $0.09
    % Change 302% 311% 436% 1732% 3999% 5537% 2149% 138211% 327825% 5758798% 19195993%
    Doubling in months 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.9 4.6 6.3 11.1 5.9 6.3 5.5 5.3
    Doubling Period in Days 19 38 44 87 138 193 338 179 193 166 160
    Days in period 30 60 90 345 711 1076 1441 1806 2173 2538 2705
    Compounding Daily Periodic Rate 3.75553% 1.91% 1.65% 0.8300% 0.45% 0.37% 0.21% 0.40% 0.37322% 0.43% 0.45%
    Daily Periodic Rate 6.74% 3.51% 3.73% 4.73% 1.55% 0.80% 0.32% 0.91% 0.79% 1.05% 1.14%
    Annual Rate of Investment 2460% 1281% 1363% 1726% 564.3% 290.3% 117.5% 331.2% 289.5% 383.7% 416.3%
    Over $20,000.00 on 2017-12-15 2017-12-19 2017-12-20 2017-12-28 2018-05-02 2018-01-18 2018-02-17 2018-01-13 2018-01-17 2018-01-10 2018-01-14
    Over $25,190.00 on 2017-12-21 2017-12-31 2018-01-03 2018-01-25 2018-06-22 2018-03-20 2018-06-05 2018-03-12 2018-03-19 2018-03-04 2018-03-06
    Over $31,620.00 on 2017-12-27 2018-01-12 2018-01-16 2018-02-21 2018-08-12 2018-05-20 2018-09-20 2018-05-08 2018-05-19 2018-04-26 2018-04-26
    Over $56,230.00 on 2018-01-11 2018-02-11 2018-02-20 2018-05-01 2018-12-17 2018-10-21 2019-06-17 2018-09-28 2018-10-21 2018-09-06 2018-09-01
    Over $79,430.00 on 2018-01-21 2018-03-01 2018-03-13 2018-06-12 2019-03-04 2019-01-22 2019-11-26 2018-12-23 2019-01-21 2018-11-24 2018-11-17
    Over $100,000.00 on 2018-01-27 2018-03-13 2018-03-27 2018-07-10 2019-04-24 2019-03-24 2020-03-13 2019-02-19 2019-03-24 2019-01-17 2019-01-07
    Over $1,000,000.00 on 2018-03-29 2018-07-12 2018-08-14 2019-04-13 2020-09-17 2020-11-29 2023-02-26 2020-09-14 2020-11-30 2020-07-02 2020-06-02
    /u/nannal 's A+ on 2018-02-03 2018-03-26 2018-04-12 2018-08-20 2019-05-10 2019-10-14 NEVER!!!! 2019-10-14 NEVER!!!! 2019-06-06 2019-05-09
    The Nannaling 81.8% What the shit is this?
    /u/nannal 2020 90.9% Read about it
    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    Taxes report with Bitfinex and Margin trades

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 06:24 AM PST

    Hi there,

    I'm not sure this is the right place but as there are many users using this Exchange to trade and also have to report their gains for taxes, I thought it could be ok to post it. Otherwise, just bad luck for me, I'll try to get answers somewhere else :)

    Question is simple: I used Bitfinex for around a year and used Margin trading a lot.

    The issue is that if I export the trades list from my history it just shows the actual buy/sell and fees.

    But with margin trading and the multiple wallet system, there is more happening. Especially the settlements.

    I have multiple thousand of trades, mostly on BTC but that doesn't matter.

    If I opened a long and sold at loss (let say a loss of $500) then this -500 is removed automatically from my wallet, this isn't a trade, it's like just removed by Bitfinex.

    Also the margin fees (borrowing fees) can get quite high over time and they do not appear (correct me if I'm wrong of course) in the trade list.

    Let say I have a long opened for 5 days with ~$2 margin fees per day. Those will be also removed from my wallet in the ledger.

    So, is there anyone here who managed to do it in a "simple" way?

    I wanted to use Cointracking but they admitted to me via email that they can't manage Bitfinex margin trades because on how Bitfinex works (via API or CSV it doesn't matter, they just can't deal with it)

    I know that in the ledger of each coin and USD, there are all details, but it's just a big mess to sort out.

    So yeah, if anyone found out a simple way to export the data to calculate those gain and losses, I'll take it

    Thanks

    submitted by /u/Necka44
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    HOW TO SURVIVE THE GREAT BITCOIN SEDUCTION

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 10:55 AM PST

    A friend asked the other day "Should I buy Bitcoin with my life savings of $20k?"

    NO! DO NOT RISK YOUR SAVINGS, SALARY OR RENT ON BITCOIN!

    Take a breath. It's frustrating. Bitcoin has doubled this month alone. Everyone else is getting rich! How did you not see this coming? If only you had jumped in with both feet last month when you were tempted you'd have $40k now!

    THE NEXT SENTENCE IS IMPORTANT, READ IT TWICE

    Do not confuse a winning bet with a smart bet.

    AGAIN

    Do not confuse a winning bet with a smart bet.

    Would you risk $20k on Red or Black at the Roulette table?

    "But I thought you supported crypto?"

    I do. I also think that jumping in with two feet will lead to financial ruin. In fact, I guarantee it.

    "What if I only invest $10K?"

    Again, can you trust yourself not to double down on a losing bet when the market dumps 50% or more? It happens time and time again. The end result is always the same. Financial ruin.

    ONCE MORE

    Do not risk your savings on Crypto. Rather, save towards a meaningful investment in crypto.

    It is more probable to accumulate a meaningful or even life changing amount of crypto assets over time, with small amounts and lots of patience. Repeat the mantra...

    INFINITE PATIENCE PRODUCES IMMEDIATE RESULTS

    So how could you put this plan in motion?

    Take a piece of paper and write the following:

    1. Your day of birth.

    2. An amount you could easily spend on a monthly cellphone or TV subscription. Say $50 a month.

    3. Write down

    BTC (Bitcoin), BCH (Bitcoin Cash), ETH (Ethereum), LTC (Litecoin), XRP (Ripple), FOM (flavour of the month coin)

    1. Write down a tangible asset you are saving for. Something reasonable between $1000 and $20000. It could be a car. It could be a holiday. It cannot be credit card debt. If you have credit card debt, focus on paying that off first. Crypto will still be around when you're free and clear. So will the opportunity. Don't believe me? Ok, how many of the websites created before 1995 do you recognise today?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/…/List_of_websites_founded_before_…

    Facebook wasn't a thing until 2006! You have time. Clear the debt first.

    Be specific. Take a screenshot of the exact item and the exact price. I'll explain the importance of this later.

    This piece of paper is the basis for your crypto investment plan. Keep it safe. Stick it to your refrigerator or bathroom mirror.

    Beginning next month, January 2018, on the day of your birth, spend $50 on the first coin on the list (BTC). In February 2018, same day, spend $50 on BCH. In March, $50 on ETH. And so on. In June you get to chose any other coin to buy. It is important to make the plan as mechanical as possible to remove ego and emotional burden from the process.

    Here's the important part. Write this at the bottom of your paper. When it rolls round to buying BTC (Bitcoin) again in July 2018...

    BUY IF THE PRICE IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS BUY

    ELSE DO NOTHING

    *NEVER EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION. EVER!

    The same rule applies to BCH and the other coins on your list. Only add to the position if the price is higher. Else do nothing.

    The biggest lie in trading is BUY LOW and SELL HIGH. You can never know what is high or what is low. Instead you will BUY HIGH and eventually SELL HIGHER. With this approach you could participate in a multi-year rising trend.

    As soon as you reach the amount required to buy your tangible item, close your positions and purchase the item. It greatly helps if the item has utility value. Something you will use daily. You'll get accustomed to driving your new car, and won't likely trade it in a week later to jump back into Bitcoin.

    If you successfully reach this stage, then you can start the investment regime again. Same rules apply. Consider raising the monthly amount, within reason.

    Once more

    DO NOT RISK YOUR SAVINGS ON CRYPTO.

    SAVE TOWARDS AN INVESTMENT IN CRYPTO.

    Thank you for reading. Your questions are always welcome.

    Remember the most important assets are family and health. It costs nothing to compliment your partner, Skype your parents or take the kids to the park. Don't allow the mania of the crowd distract you from what truly matters.

    john.hall@coinagogo.com

    submitted by /u/coinagogo
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    Anyone have success with Gekko or other bot traders

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 08:23 AM PST

    Hey Guys, Not looking for your strategy's, more of has anyone been successful with Gekko? what type of % were/are you getting how often do you have to update your strategy ? And if not there are obviously a lot of other bots out there anybody have any success with them ?

    submitted by /u/Russ915
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    Is there an exchange that allows me to trade BTC/USD without identifying myself?

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 10:23 PM PST

    (Besides wex.nz)

    submitted by /u/nothingduploading
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    Speculation on the cause of this? We were testing a run to new ATH a few hours ago, FUD following the fact it didn't break? Nervous people trying to cash out at the top?

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 10:06 AM PST

    Strategy to regain initial investment distributed across multiple coins?

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 09:07 AM PST

    I've just about reached 100% ROI, so it's time for me to take a good convert a good % of my crypto back to USD. However I own about 12 coins, most with pretty solid growth, and so I don't want to take too much from any one coin, BUT I also want to avoid fees from doing multiple small transactions (aka taking 30% from each coin)

    Any thoughts on how to strategically take money in order to maximize future gains and minimize fees?

    If it helps my positions are roughly: 20% btc, 15% eth, 15% ltc, 10% xmr, 10% eos, 10% req, neo 5%, 15% between iota, fun, adx, gnt, omg As an aside, any thoughts on these??

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/Traitortrader
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    This is where we were a year ago, folks.

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 02:37 PM PST

    Total market cap under $20billion. Amazing

    submitted by /u/Mortimer452
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    Share your crypto portfolio community - what would be a good name? :)

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 07:39 AM PST

    I'm developing a platform where users can register and have their portfolios tracked and visualised in a top list. Best investors every week get a badge and there will be numerous other competitions. Actual value of portfolios is not public, only change and relative holdings.

    What would be a good name for this service?

    submitted by /u/c0bra_
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    reputable alternatives to gdax?

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 07:06 AM PST

    I have set up a gdax account and my deposit is taking days to process. Any suggestions for an alternative? I would also like to invest in monero as well so any market offering more than ETH, BTC, & LTC would be great.

    submitted by /u/wisdomwantedplz
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    [POOL] Exchange Preferences

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 08:30 PM PST

    Quick question traders if you have a moment, this will help a lot:

    1. Which exchange interface do you like the most (UI) ? Why ?
    2. Which exchange chart do you like ? Why ?
    3. Which exchange do you use / trust more ? and again, why ?

    Feel free NOT to support your answer with an argument. Your opinion (even if not popular) can help a lot in this study.

    I appreciate your participation.

    submitted by /u/balaos14
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    Best Kraken alternative for EUR withdrawals?

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 03:30 AM PST

    Hey, planning to take some profits. Kraken is simply unusable, getting errors all the time. Which exchange can you recommend for EUR withdrawals?

    submitted by /u/chescos
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    bought, sold, bought, sold again

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 01:33 PM PST

    Let's say I make 100k/year.

    I bought 1x BTC @ 10k, and sold it for 15k. (+5k profit)

    The market goes absolutely nowhere, and I buy 1x BTC again at 15k (wiping the initial 5k profit), and then sell it for 20k (+5k profit, again).

    Am I paying taxes on both 5ks? Did I earn 110k this year, or only 105k?

    I'm keeping track of "the final total" in my spreadsheets, but bitcoin.tax seems to only be adding up the win column, and counting it against me every time... it says I've "made" 51k this year, when my actual numbers are that I've spent 20k, and am currently up 25k (45k total in gdax).

    The only way I can see this making sense is if it's only adding up my sells, and not my subsequent buys (sometimes at a loss, sometimes at a win).

    Am I right that when it comes time to file taxes, my "net gains (excluding losses, and cost to buy in the first place)" are what will matter, and hence, be taxed?

    In this case, I would declare that I made 25k on BTC, in addition to the 100k my employer pays me, and thus should be taxed at 125k.

    submitted by /u/ixobelle01
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    Coinbase purchase without I.D.?

    Posted: 13 Dec 2017 12:18 AM PST

    I bought some bitcoin from coinbase two weeks ago without I.D. verification. I recently ran into some trouble after realizing my I.D. was expired after I tried to upload it and can no longer purchase, but I'm curious why I was able to before I had attempted to upload my I.d. Does anyone know?

    submitted by /u/kensei_ocelot
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    US taxes on margin lending on bitfinex

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 11:57 PM PST

    I'm hoping for some collective wisdom from this subreddit. When we provide margin lending on bitfinex, for say, bitcoin, we get paid back in bitcoin, not USD. Is the interest we get immediately taxable with a basis of 0 and a realized capital gain of that day's BTC price?

    Or is there some other tax treatment possible considering the speculative value of BTC until sold for fiat? Certainly US taxpayers have to pay taxes on margin lending earnings at some point....

    submitted by /u/raywal
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    Coinbase: use GDAX or shapeshift?

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 05:05 PM PST

    If we are looking to accumulate Bitcoin by exchanging into Alts, it seems obvious that simple buys and sells from Fiat in Coinbase would be bad.

    Once money is in Gdax, does it make more sense to just trade on Gdax or will a mobile app like shapeshift with my own exchange addresses be better? Will Gdax have fees out to a shapeshift address? If not, will shapeshift give me a better rate?

    Looking for those who have made this step from buying and hodling on Coinbase.

    Bought in 2013 so I'm not a n00b, but I'm looking to get advice from those who have picked their tools.

    submitted by /u/SkepticalFaceless
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    Changjelly?

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 06:57 PM PST

    Anyone had success recently I use Gemini but they dont offer LTC (as of yet?) , anyhow 3 LTC TO BTC. Its been almost an hour and its exchanging. Please post some feedback

    submitted by /u/PhilSteve
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    Who else is liquidating all bCash once Coinbase provides access?

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 12:36 PM PST

    I believe bCash will take a serious hit once Coinbase provides its users with access to their BTC forked bCash. I'd like to be part of that flood (hopefully before value is too deflated...). What are your thoughts on cashing out of bCash or tradin into more BTC?

    submitted by /u/Aa5bDriver
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    Withdrawing from Coin Base UK

    Posted: 12 Dec 2017 12:46 PM PST

    Like what seems to be many others I am having an absolute nightmare withdrawing from Coin Base to a UK bank account. I have sent a SEPA verification payment, these funds have appeared in my Euro wallet, but it still will not let me withdraw. I have sent a support ticket but have been ignored. Has anyone successfully withdrawn from the EUR wallet to a Lloyd's bank account? Is there any recommendations?

    submitted by /u/Shaunl14
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