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    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, November 30, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    November 30, 2017

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, November 30, 2017 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, November 30, 2017

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Coinbase ordered to report 14,355 users to the IRS

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:53 PM PST

    Coinbase is ORDERED to produce the following documents for accounts with at least the equivalent of $20,000 in any one transaction type (buy, sell, send, or receive) in any one year during the 2013 to 2015 period:

    1. the taxpayer ID number,
    2. name,
    3. birth date,
    4. address,
    5. records of account activity including transaction logs or other records identifying the date, amount, and type of transaction (purchase/sale/exchange), the post transaction balance, and the names of counterparties to the transaction, and
    6. all periodic statements of account or invoices (or the equivalent).

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/29/16717416/us-coinbase-irs-records

    submitted by /u/modeless
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    ECB orders banks to embrace instant payments to beat bitcoin

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 07:12 AM PST

    What "buy low sell high" really mean

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 08:48 AM PST

    Investing is a simple thing which only has two real rules for success:

    • you buy low, and
    • you sell high

    It's simple math.

    What's the compexity? What people think is "high" and "low".

    For instance, Bitcoin went to $5,700 recently after a quick crash due to the SegWit2x fiasco and hit all time highs at low $8,000 levels. That was 11 days ago. Yesterday, it hit $11,500 - a 43.75% gain from the recovery and more than double from the bottom made eleven days ago.

    Apparently to some of you this wasn't a sign of "sell high".

    Lots of people expected for us to hit $10,000 - a nice round number. What did we do after we hit it? We went 15% on top of that. In a few hours. For a market cap that's almost a quarter of a trillion dollars. Apparently - again - this wasn't a sign of "sell high" to some of you.

    What's happening today? We went from $11,500 to $9,100 (I'll ignore the crash yesterday for now). That's about a 20% drop.

    The question is: do you think this is the "buy low" part of the equation or do you think we can go lower?

    For instance, if we believe low $8,000s were a reasonable level to hold then we're up about 15% from there. What could warrant this gain? More investors, CME coming in a few weeks? Yahoo/Google finance, CNBC, and even print media talk about Bitcoin on a daily basis and this is becoming more mainstream. 15% gain from this exposure which will lead to adoption not to mention investments? Sure, makes sense to me.

    So if you think this is the "buy low" then buy low. That's kind of the point.

    Just don't forget to "sell high" again.

    If you're a long-term holder then don't even go to this sub, transfer your BTC to a hardware wallet, and this is your chance for you to pick up more BTC on sale.

    submitted by /u/SsurebreC
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    [Guide] US Long-term and short-term capital gains taxes

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 12:09 PM PST

    Some people have asked about paying taxes on cryptocurrencies and I thought I'd write a post about it. Disclosure:

    • This is about US taxes only.
    • This is your money - don't let anyone tell you what to do with it and consult a professional - rather than a random person from the Internets.
    • My experience is 20 years of trading (and therefore filing taxes). My info comes from tax professionals who file my taxes so take that for what its worth. I'm not a tax person so I hope to get this right.
    • the information below should apply to most people here. If you're worth $5 billion, why are you here? This stuff doesn't apply to you.

    Do I even need to pay taxes?

    You only need to pay taxes if you sell AND make a profit. If you hold and don't sell, you don't need to pay taxes. If you sell - even if you had that cash for a fraction of a second - you still owe if you made a profit.

    IRS treats cryptocurrency as property - not currency - and capital gains taxes apply. (Citation)

    Pro tip: don't mess with the IRS. If they can get Capone, they can get you. If you're off by $5, they won't care but if you're hiding thousands - they'll come after you, find it, make you pay - with penalties and crazy interest rates. It's not worth it. Plus they'll be auditing some accounts and bank accounts with unusual activity. There was an announcement that the IRS will be auditing Coinbase accounts with transactions over $20k so you're likely on the list (I know I am).

    Capital losses

    I'm going to start with this first since it comes into play with capital gains. Capital losses is the total amount you lost during the year. If your net activity results in a loss, you have the following benefits:

    • you can write off up to $3,000 per year
    • you can continue writing it off until the entire amount is expunged. For instance, if you have $9,000 of capital gains losses, you can use the write-off for 3 years presuming you have no more capital gains or losses.
    • If you lost $9k in 2016, claimed $3k in 2016, and you have $3k in gains in 2017, you pay no capital gains taxes and you have another $3k in capital losses for 2018.
    • There is no limit to this so if you lost money in the 2008 crash, you can still claim those losses.
    • Capital gains in this context applies to stocks and cryptocurrencies. You lose money in stocks and make money in crypto? This is equivalent from a tax perspective.

    Capital gains

    Now the fun part. First of all, you have to remind yourself that the only reason why you're paying taxes is because you earned extra income. Congrats! Now you have to pay the piper. There are two types of capital gains taxes:

    • long-term capital gains taxes: when you hold for over a year, and
    • short-term capital gains taxes: when you hold for less than a year (obviously)

    Here are the tax rates for both.

    • long-term capital gains taxes are taxed as investment income (i.e. last column from the link called "Other investments").
    • short-term capital gains taxes are taxed as ordinary income

    Quick note: are you poor (i.e. 15% ordinary tax bracket)? If so, what the hell are you doing playing with cryptocurrency! But fine, if you are then you pay no long-term capital gains taxes.

    How to calculate your profit/loss

    There are two typical ways to count it (I'm not going to give you shady advice): FIFO and LIFO.

    • FIFO: First In First Out
    • LIFO: Last In First Out

    Since this post is already long, here is a link with examples. I use FIFO. As long as you're consistent, you won't have any problems. If you switch between FIFO and LIFO depending on transaction to try to minimize taxes, you could get in trouble for tax evasion. Best to be consistent.

    You need to create - if you haven't already - a massive spreadsheet of all your transactions and keep it on file for years. Here's what I record:

    • purchase date
    • type (ex: BTC vs. ETH, etc) - that's just for me for statistical analysis but this is in case IRS asks. For stocks, this would be the ticker of the stock
    • coin purchased (full number with all the decimals)
    • purchase price (if it was a bunch of partial orders, average out each individual purchase price)
    • purchase fee if applicable (add up the partial fees too)
    • sell date
    • sell price
    • sell fee if applicable

    Profit formula is simple: (sell price - purchase price) * coin purchased - purchase fee - sell fee. If you sell a portion of your holdings, I'd break up the original purchase in two and track separately.

    At the end of the year, add all this up (or just have a running total like me). Add capital losses to this. If the number is greater than zero then you likely owe taxes (depending on your bracket).

    ELI5: progressive taxation

    Lots of people don't quite understand how progressive taxes work - and this applies to ordinary income (not long-term capital gains taxes). Capital gains taxes are a flat percent based on ordinary income. Let's use the following assumptions for an example:

    • you're single
    • you make $100,000 per year
    • you have $25,000 in long-term capital gains
    • you have $10,000 in short-term capital gains
    • Note: I'm going to ignore all other things that make taxes lower such as state taxes, exemptions, credits, deductions, etc - especially since there's a new tax plan in the system. I'm only focusing on taxes and capital gains. This means the rate you'll pay is going to be lower.

    That said, with the above, you have $110,000 in "ordinary income" and $25,000 in long-term capital gains. Long-term capital gains: Your income puts you in the 15% investment tax bracket. $25,000 * 15% = $3,750 in taxes.

    Short-term capital gains are more complex since they're progressive:

    • First $9,325 of ordinary income is taxed at 10% = $932.50
    • Next $28,624 is taxed at 15% = $4,293.60
    • Next $53,949 is taxed at 25% = $13,487.25
    • $110,000 ordinary income minus $91,900 (top of previous tax bracket) gives us $18,100 which is taxed at 28% = $5,068

    Add them up: $23,781.35 total tax which, out of $110,000, is 21.62% tax rate while you're in the 28% tax bracket. Adding the long-term capital gains taxes give you:

    • $135,000 total income
    • $27,531.35 total taxes
    • 20.39% tax rate

    Again: in reality, you'll pay a lot less in taxes due to deductions, credits, and various other adjustments. This is just the pure rate based on the math above.

    I hope this helps and good luck - I hope all of us have had a very good year but don't forget to prepare yourself for tax season.

    submitted by /u/SsurebreC
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    RESULTS of the big reddit cryptocurrency survey!

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 03:14 PM PST

    What is this?

    One month ago I posted a survey of over 40 questions to a range of different cryptocurrency subreddits and collected just over 300 responses. Since then I have processed the data and taken a look at the different demographics, opinions and portfolios of different users as well as comparing the results from different subreddits. This post is the results of this survey!

    First thing first, I apologise for the wait. I made the survey over a month ago. The reason I took so long is because I foolishly made it a week before study week for my exams at University so I had to put it aside for a month until my exams were over.

    Anyway, back to the results. I will condense the main points into this post and if you want to take a look at the graphs, they can be found here in the full report, just scroll down and you will see them. If you want to read the full report I made then click the link below.

    Full results report here

    The graphs can be found on the full report.

    Condensed results for the lazy

    Key Stats:

    Section 1: Reddit and social media use

    • Two thirds of cryptocurrency subreddit users frequently browse non-crypto related subreddits.

    • Over 70% of cryptocurrency subreddit users used reddit previous to finding out about cryptocurrencies.

    • For 1 out of every 8 cryptocurrency subreddit users, reddit is the only social media platform they use to keep up with crypto.

    • 94% of cryptocurrency subreddit users check the price of their cryptocurrencies daily!

    • Over 40% of cryptocurrency subreddit users check the price of their cryptocurrencies over 10 times per day and 80% check the prices at least 3 times per day.

    Section 2: Demographics

    • 95% of cryptocurrency subreddit users are male.

    • The median age of cryptocurrency subreddit users is between 26 and 30 years old.

    • Almost 50% of cryptocurrency subreddit users are from Europe and another third are from North America.

    • Over 75% of cryptocurrency subreddit users either have a University degree or higher or are currently studying at University (University is the same thing as college for any Americans reading this).

    • More cryptocurrency subreddit users are living off money they made from crypto than there are users who work in the blockchain industry.

    • Over 20% of cryptocurrency subreddit users are students, of these students, 60% of them are at University.

    • Nearly 40% of cryptocurrency subreddit users consider themselves gamers.

    • 2 of the 331 cryptocurrency subredditors sexually identify as an attack helicopter. It is fair to say that I have learned not to add an "other" gender option in future surveys!

    Section 3: Experience and interest in cryptocurrencies

    • 70% of cryptocurrency subreddit users consider themselves HODLers.

    • Decentralisation is the main ideological reason for cryptocurrency subreddit users to be into crypto and blockchain tech.

    • 36% of cryptocurrency subreddit users got into cryptocurrencies in 2017 and 27% got into crypto in 2013.

    • 45% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have previous experience in the stock market.

    • The average cryptocurrency subreddit user is into crypto for the money but still has a significant interest in blockchain tech.

    • Most cryptocurrency subreddit users consider themselves very likely to mention cryptocurrencies to a friend.

    Section 4: Crypto Portfolio

    • The median cryptocurrency subreddit user has somewhere between $5,000 and $20,000 invested in cryptocurrencies.

    • Nearly 45% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have invested either less than 10% or more than 90% of their total savings in crypto.

    • Nearly 10% of cryptocurrency subreddit users would rather not share what price category the size of their investment in crypto fits into for this semi-anonymous survey.

    • 80% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have made a profit off their crypto investments.

    • 60% of cryptocurrency subreddit users who invested in crypto after June 30th 2017 have made a profit off their crypto investments.

    • 60% of cryptocurrency subreddit users own altcoins outside the top 10 coins by market cap.

    • 50% of cryptocurrency subreddit users own 3 cryptocurrencies or less.

    • Nearly 30% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have invested in an ICO before.

    • The average (median) cryptocurrency subreddit user is signed up for 3 cryptocurrency exchanges.

    • For just one third of cryptocurrency subreddit users, altcoins outside the top 10 coins make up more than 10% of their portfolio.

    Section 5: Cryptocurrency Knowledge

    • Most cryptocurrency subreddit users believe that they understand blockchain technology quite well.

    • More than 50% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have fully read a whitepaper.

    • Over 75% of cryptocurrency subreddit users know of Satoshi Nakamoto, Vitalik Buterin and Charlie Lee and who they are.

    Section 6: Opinion

    • Most cryptocurrency subreddit users think that 3-5 of the current top 10 cryptos will still be in the top 10 in 3 years.

    • Nearly 40% of cryptocurrency subreddit users don't support SegWit2x.

    • Just 10% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Bitcoin.

    • Nearly 70% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have a favourable opinion of Ethereum.

    • More participants have a favourable opinion of Ethereum than Bitcoin.

    • More than 55% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Bitcoin Cash.

    • Almost 75% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Bitcoin Gold.

    • 50% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Bitconnect while a further 47% don't know how they feel about it or don't know enough about it to have an opinion.

    • 45% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Ripple.

    • Nearly 55% of cryptocurrency subreddit users have an unfavourable opinion of Ethereum Classic.

    Final Section: Subreddit Comparisons

    • Over 70% or r/Bitcoin users are opposed to Bitcoin Cash while just under 20% of r/BTC users are opposed to it.

    • Over 25% of r/ETHTrader users don't have an opinion of Bitcoin Cash.

    • 80% of r/BTC users approve of SegWit2x while just 6% of r/Bitcoin users approve of it.

    • Over 50% of both r/Ethereum and r/ETHTrader users don't have an opinion of SegWit2x.

    Which Subreddit has the highest rate of ICO investment? The highest rate of ICO investment by users from r/CryptoCurrency where 38% of users have invested in an ICO.

    Which subreddit has the most compulsive price checkers? The two trading oriented subreddits (r/BitcoinMarkets and r/ETHTrader) had the most compulsive price checkers, with r/BitcoinMarkets having a significantly higher percentage of compulsive price checkers.

    Which subreddit rates their crypto knowledge the highest? r/Cryptocurrency, r/Bitcoin and r/BitcoinMarkets all have similar distributions with the same averages (median of 7 out of 10 and very similar mean values just below 7). r/ETHTrader rated their crypto knowledge the lowest with a median of 6 out of 10 and a mean just above 6 which as about 0.7 lower than the mean values of other subreddits.

    Closing Words

    That's it! If you want to read through the full report I made, I left a link near the top of this post, if you want to see the graphs. I'll leave the raw data and the spreadsheets I used to process the data below if any of you are interested.

    Finally I'd like to thank everyone who participated and especially those who gave criticisms and feedback on what I covered in the survey and how I formatted it. I'm open to any recommendations for next time and criticisms of this survey so that I can make my next survey better.

    Raw data and spreadsheets

    Want more? Check out u/LoveYouEth 's similar post on r/ETHTrader from a few months back. This post is what inspired me to do this and I built many of my questions around what he hadn't covered.

    This post took me over 20 hours of work to make so any donations are greatly appreciated, but don't feel obliged!

    Bitcoin: 3N8gWGeJnu7z4fro4WsFpvPscbFQe17RUD or QR code for BTC address

    Ether/ERC20: 0x4EE0463376B17dABbf819f963E06f6B393bE55De

    P.S. One person filled in the form within the last three days before I posted this. Too l8 m8 sorry. :P

    submitted by /u/Tricky_Troll
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    Enough of these Bitcoin Future crashing Bitcoin posts...

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 01:31 PM PST

    Its really sad that we have people here who are investing probably for the very first time and have no idea how the markets work. I assume that most people here never even bought stocks before in the past.

    I keep seeing posts that. Hedge funds buys BTC, later will sell BTC and short the futures. This is reddik.

    First of all they would need a massive amount of BTC to do that. Even if they had a massive amount of BTC, what makes them think price would crash? The dip could of been bought up. And then they've made nothing. They lost their BTC and their short position net them $0.

    They can short BTC on the future markets without a hedge and want happens if it keeps going up and up everyday? Their entire capital firm would go bankrupt.

    The way that Wall Street plans to make money with Bitcoin is not by crashing it. One of the ways is by market making; where they profit off the spread. Another is by volume, where the exchange and broker make money by commissions.

    If they crashed it all the way to $0 at once, what would they get out of it? Just a quick buck and that's it. You need to think about the future.

    Bitcoin will most likely trade in corrolation to Gold and be a primarily risk-off type of market. It will go down when the stock market goes up, and it will go up when the stock market goes down.

    The major big difference will be that volatility will be more stable. None of these 25-35% daily swings in price. And freezing every bitcoin exchange and people can't get their order thru.

    submitted by /u/sebastianlivermore
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    Will my bank have an issue if I wire a substantial amount of USD to my account from an OTC broker?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 09:26 PM PST

    I'm planning on selling a portion of my BTC holdings in the near future and am planning to exchange it for USD via an OTC firm. The amount in question will probably be around $200,000.

    My question is: will my bank (Ally) take issue with the fact that I'm receiving a wire for $200K (as that is substantially more money than I typically deal with in that account?) I'm not concerned about having to provide any additional documentation about the source of the funds if they request it, and I'm certainly planning to pay any and all relevant taxes incurred by the sale -- my main concern is that they don't immediately freeze or close the account, as I've heard horror stories about banks closing customers' accounts just for being involved in Bitcoin trading.

    If any of you have dealt with Ally for something like this or have had a related experience with OTC sales, I'd appreciate hearing about it so I know what to expect.

    Thanks for your time.

    submitted by /u/Anaxafis
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    Tradingview price difference

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 05:47 AM PST

    On mobile the Bitfinex chart is different than that one on desktop and on the Bitfinex website. On mobile yesterdays crash shows a low of 9.4k while the others show a low of 9k. Is there a setting that filters out short/low volume moves? Not the first time this happens. It's also weird because I use the same account on both devices and it syncronizes everytime I go on mobile. So it should really show the same chart.

    submitted by /u/Culi122
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    Question on Transferring BTC or ETH to USD section of Coinbase Wallet

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 09:30 AM PST

    Looking to transfer back and forth to take advantage of dips and runs... I'm wondering how this activity might effect tax status in my account?

    submitted by /u/VEGAS_VEGAS_VEGAS
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    What caused the 2013 crash? Was it gox? Are we still bullish or is this dead cat?

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 07:21 PM PST

    Be careful out there, just lost 2k$ to malware

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 11:21 AM PST

    So I went through my emails from college and ended up finding .18 bitcoin in my old circle account from when I was buying bitcoins with a credit card, and got super excited(as I'm VERY poor right now). I have been trading with play money and doing very well (+1800% last 2 weeks daytrading) so I wanted to do it with real money. I also got my unemployment check of 400$. I contacted my friend who has a lot of extra bitcoins and told him I wanted to buy some, so I venmo him the money, and go on circle and put in my BTC address, as well as sending the address to him.

    An hour later my coins haven't showed up and I start investigating. They were sent to the wrong address. I couldn't figure out where this mystery address had come from, its the one I pasted but no the one I copied. Fastforward 2 hours later, I have malware on my computer that changes the BTC address when you copy any address, to a list of addresses owned by the attacker(I assume).

    So I just lost all my money for the week, plus the chrismas surprise I found in my old account. I am so sad right now I feel like breaking my keyboard but then I won't even be able to post how stupid I am on reddit. I'm just so bummed, I haven't been excited like that in a long time, and I'm living at my parents not doing so well, and just wanted to trade with real money.

    TL;DR Watch out for bitcoin stealing malware that changes the the btc address when you copy it to your clipboard. Always verify every character of the address.

    Hope you all have a better day than I am, we broke 11k+, to the moon - were gonna beat DOGE there!

    submitted by /u/airy52
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    wallet compatible with old BTC private key for recovery BTG? (web? ios?)

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 08:09 AM PST

    Hi,

    I save my BTC and my BCH to an other wallet, with my old private key I want to get acces to my BTC Gold.
    Who know wich wallet is compatible with private key export for BTG?

    configuration : WEB or Ios | old wallet => blockchain.info

    Thanks!

    submitted by /u/SOMtimWANG
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    What expect from btg?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 01:22 AM PST

    I dont really get it.

    Is there Something to expect?

    submitted by /u/coinsenhigh
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    Questions about Stop Losses and Stop Limits

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 10:33 PM PST

    Like many of us, I'm trying to see if there's a way to protect myself from a massive sell off that happens while I'm getting my beauty sleep. The obvious answer of how to do this is some sort of STOP order. However, I'd like to pair that with some sort of order (Stop Buy maybe?) that buys back in for me should the price start rising again. But I'm not 100% certain that I'm looking at it the right way. Can somebody help?

    Here's an example to help illustrate what I'm looking to do:

    Price right now is at $10220.00 on GDAX. I'd like to put a Stop Loss in at, say $9000 in case it drops massively overnight. But, if the price starts rising again, I don't want to be left having sold low and then being forced to buy back in at a higher place once I wake up in the morning. So I'd like to place an order that automatically buys me back in if/when the price rises again.

    I think the answer might be a Stop Buy Limit order, but I'm not totally sure. I guess I'm having trouble with setting the Stop and the Limit. Should I set the stop at the same price as my Stop Loss (in this case $9000), and then a Limit at something like $9050?

    One big reason I'm not sure if this is right is the fact that I'm worried my Stop Limit will trigger on the way DOWN, not the way UP, and then I'll have an order on the books to buy at $9050 when the market price is already down at $9000 (aka I'll be overpaying, and not necessarily when the price is on its way back up)

    Sorry that's all a bit convoluted - but anybody have ideas? Feel free to ask clarifying questions if necessary. Again, to summarize, my goal is to have one order that sells if the price drops to a certain point, but then another order that buys back in for me once the price starts rising again.

    Advice/help very much appreciated in advance.

    submitted by /u/veithernet
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    Kraken - Fiat Withdrawal Warning

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 07:02 AM PST

    If anyone else is still using Kraken (and I can't think why anybody would at this stage) I want to draw attention to my experience over the last couple of weeks.

    I tried to withdraw €490 or so from my Kraken account on Monday 13th November to my own bank account via a SEPA transfer after selling some BTC. All seemed to have gone fine and the status was set to "Sending", but, the status is still set at sending and it is now the 30th of November.

    I have sent daily emails to the support email after about 6 days after the initial withdrawal. Then further chasers via the google form they have linked here on reddit so they can look into the issue.

    They have replied, albeit slow, and their responses have ranged from "we don't see any issues" "your money is stuck at the bank" and most recently "your money is not lost it is with our banking partner". After I'd used the google form they replied on the 27th from another support account saying that it had been escalated and sent to the proper department.

    Now I'm wondering if anybody else has had similar issues as it seems like the lack of anything except vague answers here. I live in the UK and I'm using an international bank and I have never had any issues withdrawing or depositing funds to a SEPA bank at all so this just screams alarm bells at me.

    I would strongly advise if anyone has any fiat currency stored on Kraken to test the water first before completing the withdrawal. As this sounds like another one of the many, many issues that is facing this shambles of an exchange. It seems like no coincidence that this is also happening after every other issue we've been seeing, and, to be honest if I tried to log in one day and the site wasn't there any more it wouldn't shock me in the least.

    submitted by /u/jhbroch
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    Bear market for BTC is coming

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 10:05 PM PST

    Can I post a conditional stop loss?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 06:26 AM PST

    Can I set an order to go live when the price drops below x and then set the condition to sell for atleast y? This way I can sell in a downswing but dont get caught in a flashcrash.

    submitted by /u/Pragmaticdutchguy
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    Can we just be honest here

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 02:35 AM PST

    Best GDAX training videos

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 12:21 AM PST

    Any recommendations on training videos for GDAX?

    Thanks.

    submitted by /u/DCMikeO
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    How To Profit From Bitcoin Bubble

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 06:15 AM PST

    http://www.danielwilczynski.com/2017/11/29/bitcoin-price-index/

    Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bubble

    Nov 30, 2017 | 6 Min Read | 0 Comments TLDR: Sell above exponential trend line. Buy below trend line.

    The time to sell off is after Bitcoins rise above $18000. Following crash buy in slowly below $10000.

    NOTE! This is just a strategy that gives an educated guess. The strategy could be wrong. Don't hold me responsible for the results of your trading. Bitcoin price can be hard to predict.

    Using BETI To Profit From The Coming Bitcoin Bubble.

    The Bitcoin bubble and crash cycle is repeating. As price shoots up meetup attendance and exchange user numbers have also exploded. Many newcomers are looking to invest in Bitcoin or have recently invested.

    As the raising price brings more media attention to Bitcoin, causing further price rises, a mania builds that will send Bitcoin to spectacular heights. It will then crash and enter a bear market reaching possibly as low as $1000.

    This has been the pattern before and its likely to repeat again. What is hard to predict is the exact highs, lows and when the bubble will occur.

    This post explains my simple framework for estimating the price targets to sell, buy and when.

    The essence of it is when the price is significantly above the exponential trend line it's time to sell off. If it's on the trend line or below it's time to accumulate.

    Log Chart of Price

    The first graph is of the log(price) of Bitcoin. X axis is days since 31/7//2010.

    Light Blue is the line of best fit. Red is a more conservative line with lower slope assuming exponential rate will decrease as Bitcoin market cap gets larger.

    BETI Chart

    This second graph illustrates BETI (Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index). It shows how far we are from trend line. Y = ln(days-price / expected-days-price). X axis is days since 31/7/2010.

    0 means we are on trend line.

    Observations

    The first observation we can make is that when we leave a bear market and cross the trend line, we usually get explosive growth.

    We just recently (Nov 2017) crossed the trend line and all the indicators (google trends, user numbers etc) are rapidly growing. This suggest that we might have a cyclic top in the next 3 months.

    The dizzying high prices will not last long. BETI might reach 1.5 for a few days. It will be hard to sell at the exact top however. BETI might stay over 1 for around 2 weeks.

    Price Top Predictions

    Let's do some predictions of what could happen in the case of a cyclic bubble with the top occurring in 40 days.

    A BETI of 1.5 (all time high BETI is 1.8) in 40 days would give:

    a top of $32 200 based on line of best fit.

    a top of $22 900 based on conservative line.

    Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let's look at BETI of 1 in 40 days. This gives us a price of:

    $19 500 based on line of best fit.

    $13 800 for conservative slope line.

    We might want to start selling of slowly at a BETI of 0.8. This would mean respectively prices of:

    $16 000,

    $11 300

    When To Sell

    We do not want to sell to early and be overtaken by the long term trend line.

    Selling at $14 000 means we have 244 days from now till the best fit trend line reaches $14 000. We would want to buy back significantly before that time as we want to buy below trend line.

    Selling at $18 000. Means we have 321 days from now till the line of best fit reaches the same price level.

    As such, a good approach might be to not sell before $14000. Sell small amounts below $18 000.

    Moderate amounts below. $27 000.

    Large sell off above $27 000.

    This means anybody with current Bitcoin holdings will make significant profit and has a very good chance of selling at a very good price. They should also have plenty of opportunities to buy back at lower price over then next year.

    Cyclic Lows After Crash

    How low could Bitcoin go in the bear market following the bubble pop?

    If in 300 days we are in middle of bear market with BETI of -1.

    That gives us cyclic price low of:

    $6 200 for line of best fit.

    $3 800 for conservative line.

    If on the other hand we have a quick and gentle downturn such as the one in mid 2013 and only reach a BETI of -0.27 in 200 days, this would give us a price of:

    $9 200 for line of best fit.

    $6 000 for conservative line.

    If we have a long downturn such as the one after the late 2013 bubble and reach a have low of -1.2 in 800 days. We would have a price of:

    $25 800 for line of best fit.

    $12 000 for conservative line.

    This means we can be pretty confident that the crash will send Bitcoin at least below $10 000 dollars. After the pop I would suggest to start buying in slowly, each week we are below $10 000.

    Its possible that Bitcoin will go even lower then that though, albeit briefly. A BETI of -2 in 300 days would give us

    $2 300 for line of best fit. $1 400 for conservative line. Credits:

    The concept of BETI was taken from core dev Dr. Johnson Lau in this thread

    submitted by /u/DanielWilc
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    Bitmex Withdrawals - Every 12 Hours? 6 Hours?

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 05:57 AM PST

    As per the title - Please upvote this if you are in support of 12 or 6 hour withdrawals from Bitmex

    I for one am frustrated I withdrew over 24 hours ago (EDIT: I was exaggerating, 11 hours) now and it has still not reached an exchange on which I can sell for FIAT.

    Thanks

    EDIT: I have received a nice message from Bitmex support, who are as professional as ever, looking to help me out. To clarify: I was not criticisiing Bitmex or looking for personal support (my tx went through in their usual withdrawal round just before I made this post, and was in the exchange soon after this post).

    I am just highlighting that I think 12 hour withdrawal rounds (or sooner) would be better, if bitmex can spare the manpower.

    submitted by /u/roadkillshagger
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    Noob question about market

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 05:51 AM PST

    If in Exchange A btc price is 9200 and in Exchange B btc price is 9600

    Can I buy in exchange A and then sell on exchange B?

    Is there a name to this practice/trading?

    If yes and rentable, I imagine a lot of people do this

    submitted by /u/chamon-
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    New Site and features are live!

    Posted: 30 Nov 2017 05:33 AM PST

    Tips and advice for beginner traders

    Posted: 29 Nov 2017 11:14 PM PST

    Hey guys. Not sure if this is the right place to post this. But I am looking to get into trading. Been holding some crypto for a bit now and obviously it is do well. I want to get into trading though. I was wondering if anyone can help me with some advice and good sources to find information in trading. Any help would be appreciated.

    submitted by /u/crunkin_pillson
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