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    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, January 23, 2022

    January 23, 2022

    Bitcoin Daily Discussion, January 23, 2022

    Daily Discussion, January 23, 2022

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 09:05 PM PST

    Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

    If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

    Join us in the r/Bitcoin Chatroom!

    Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

    submitted by /u/rBitcoinMod
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    My humble technical analysis for BTC ...

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 02:19 PM PST

    When you call out the bottom at 30k€, set an order for the night, but it bottomed at 30,001€...

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 01:41 AM PST

    My cousin ended up loving this cup...

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 12:54 AM PST

    Pretty accurate words to remember

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 05:43 AM PST

    Should I dump my $15k savings into bitcoin at this point?

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 04:46 AM PST

    I remember my old friend telling me back in 2012 that bitcoin was gonna be the future, he showed me what it was and how it worked. Also how he had 10 BTC and was going to hold it until it reached $50k. We haven't spoken for about 8 years but I can only imagine the small fortune he's sitting on now if he sold it @ $50k.

    I traded some in 2014 when it was about $600, but only made a small profit and haven't bought any since.

    I've seen that BTC is at a big dip again, last time it dipped it then rose again almost 120%, Is dumping all my savings into BTC at this point wise?

    submitted by /u/JFREEZY28
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    2013 BTC hodler POV

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 06:42 AM PST

    Hodlers who didn't sell. You are very special Bitcoiners.

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 05:10 AM PST

    Don't remove the laser Eyes. Instead add a Halo. The hodler Halo and laser Eyes !

    submitted by /u/Ubuntu_Swirl
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    There it is guys. The bottom signal you were looking for.

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 03:43 PM PST

    Is this going to happen???

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 03:31 PM PST

    Sell-off-fear? Do not forget that this is a race to acquire as much Bitcoin as you can…

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 02:16 AM PST

    More than 90 percent of Bitcoin has already been mined.

    With Bitcoin price dropping, hodlers continue to eat up only a bigger percentage of an asset that has a finite supply. It is similar to a company repurchasing its shares at discount prices. Holders buying now, during a crash, acquire double the amount of btc than during the all time high period. Once put away in cold storage, it s off the market.

    Do you think Michael sailor will say ; nah, I've got enough. Ofcourse not. Me neither. If btc-price drops, more Bitcoin gets bought up for an equal amount of fiat money. That same money is being printed every day, so fiat supply is unlimited.

    Don't let a sell-off scare you; the fundamental reasons why you're in Bitcoin are still intact.

    submitted by /u/PoensieWeit
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    Duh, duh, daaah! Dah dah!

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 08:05 PM PST

    Used this recent dip to buy more. Finally up to 0.1 BTC. My goal is to keep buying to eventually own a full one

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 06:23 PM PST

    F**k it. Ride or die

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 01:10 PM PST

    Listen and learn from the winners, the smart, educated and rational people. Ignore the FUD'ders, trolls, losers, haters and uninformed.

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 05:56 AM PST

    Strao up bois, bitcoins showing a reverse fuck you pattern

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 01:57 AM PST

    Turks flock to cryptocurrencies in search of stability

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 11:39 PM PST

    Extreme fear means extreme buy in crypto

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 03:06 PM PST

    Nayib Bukele is a legend

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 06:04 AM PST

    There's a lot more going on than people realise

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 09:09 PM PST

    I'm not going to ramble on in this post and go into too much depth, but basically the markets are collapsing nice and slowly, it's not just Bitcoin's price dropping.

    China's debt to GDP is above 250% and their real estate market bubble is starting to deflate. The US Federal Reserve has completely lost control over inflation despite their claims that everything is fine (40% of all USD was printed in the last 12 months, just think about that)

    Long story short, governments are slowly losing control as bubbles deflate and retail begins to wake up. Antiwork is gaining traction and everyone is sick of rich assholes and government policy.

    What does this mean for us? Honestly, things are looking extremely positive. Start paying off your debts (snowball method), keep stacking sats, and make sure to spend time with friends and family.

    Bitcoin is not about getting rich, Bitcoin is about becoming free. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

    (Some interesting YouTube channels to follow: Trader University, The Modern Investor, Stoic Finance, Economics Explained)

    submitted by /u/dannyningpow
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    A lot of bearishness, thought I would share a few charts and models I am looking at

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 12:25 AM PST

    A lot of bearishness, thought I would share a few charts and models I am looking at

    A lot of bearishness out there, people frustrated, angry, depressed (as they should). I hope I will share some hopium I come across and am personally monitoring closely. Sometimes what you see is what they make you see, but if we look at data, they are painting a very different picture. Not financial advise, but I can tell you I regret panic selling some of my coins in July low last year, when it went below 30K again and I just couldn't take it. And in hindsight, the market was giving you a great great chance to buy. Emotion is a big enemy in investing, in sports, in any competitions. So let's look at some data, data has no emotion. Not financial advise, just some hopium and hope that it could give us a different perspective on things.

    PlanC - no one cares about planB now so maybe you would like to look at planC, just make sure you understand that the floor bands react to on chain data (i dont know what they are) so the floor could move down (or up), but only 0.01% of bitcoin life's time is spent below the band, 4 days in more than 10 years.(credit to u/TheRealPlanC)

    ​

    ​

    PlanC Floor Price Band

    Logarithmic growth floor model, basically a line (curve) of best fit everyone can draw, if we are to go lower, the longer the time it takes to get there, the higher the floor price will be because bitcoin is an asset that grow exponentially. We don't necessarily have to touch the floor, so something like the blue line scenario could happen. notice that in March 2020 we fell below the curve and bounce right back, so, however unlikely it is, if we fell below the curve again, you know what to do, but when everyone knows what to do, it probably won't happen. (like 100K moon December and religion in 4 year cycle theory)

    Logarithmic growth floor model

    ​

    Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow. Didn't really spend much time on understanding the concept behind, but I think the chart is rather self explanatory. When the indicator reach the "green zone", it corresponse to a bottom in price. And if you buy in the green zone, you pretty much make money right away when the indicator is out of the green zone and you will be making more money the months after. Pay extra attention how the indicator screamed BUY for 6 days during the March 20 COVID crash, but only screamed buy for ONE DAY at the very bottom of the 2021 May-July China mining FUD crash, one day, the day before the big reversal to 69K ATH. And we are currently in the green zone now for over 16 days, this chart is already 2 days old. Also notice that, thanks to u/wrightology calculations, average time spent in the green zone is 24 days, median is 19 days, and longest is 55 days. credit to glassnode and wrightology on twitter

    Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow

    ​

    ​

    Where we are now? we are more oversold than China miner FUD in 2021 and nearly as oversold as March 2020 COVID crash, and referring to the above log growth curve chart you know that March 2020 was a significant deviation from long term trend and the only time we fell below it, investors took advantage of it very very quickly to restore equilibrium price. At such oversold level, a rebound is highly likely, but it does not have to happen. But this is just some context on how bearish and oversold the market is right now. credit to u/damiencrypto99 btw for the chart

    https://preview.redd.it/u6yx81ri3ed81.png?width=2880&format=png&auto=webp&s=89b15bd240c1a0d5d920b9c9cce544209f696c91

    But nasdaq keep crashing? Yes they are panicing, but according to this index, we are as bearish as Mach 2020, and this index has not factored in the 2.7% decline on Friday so panic pretty much exceeded March20. People are going net short in Nasdaq and when the rebound comes, short sellers will have to cover their positions by buying back shares from the market or risk a massive short squeeze. Can nasdaq continue to drop? Yes. Can Bitcoin decouple from Nasdaq? Also Yes.

    https://preview.redd.it/lbrdrxbf4ed81.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=4948495ffcb5f16b005a07702432b0072f439f42

    Also more hopium: Divergence in price and supply. You can see in the red box, price decline of bitcoin is consistent to amount of illiquid supply, that means long term hodlers are selling. During the consolidation phase from then till July, Illiquid supply goes up, which means people locking up their bitcoins and dont intent to move it. Look at the second green box, price is declining like May 2021, but illiquid supply continuous to go up, a "divergence" situation, suggesting some people, or many people, are accumulating and locking up their coins. They have actually been accumulating since May low of 2021 according to the data. credit to CryptoRus channel and glassnode.

    ​

    https://preview.redd.it/vulkwz9v5ed81.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=c71a49b33cf2f407ade3b086e12e8e17778e990e

    What am I personally doing? I bought the dip at 43k range, and bought the dip again at 35k range. Will continue to buy at 28-34k range and have cash just in case of rare event that we wick down even lower. Should technical indicates show that we bottomed and start reversal, I will be averaging up till 48k. Have not sold a thing and most of my bitcoins are in my celsius wallet, which is generating as much as 6.2% on my bitcoin holdings, so every week, I am passively accumulating more bitcoins and those bitcoins will compound themselves and generate more bitcoin rewards for me. No matter how small the amount is, remember the bitcoin you earn today could double or triple and many X in price in the future, don't let your coin sit there doing nothing. There is certainly a risk involved, like leaving your coins on exchange or saving them in a cold wallet. You would have to decide how to allocate your coins. Feel free to DM for more discussion. Disclaimer, I am not connected to any of the influencers, twitter analyst, database or celsius. Good luck everyone, and also a reminder:

    ​

    https://preview.redd.it/ns0opp5fbed81.jpg?width=1029&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8429512ec9cf5ebc7a2a1928b855be6b32baec1

    https://preview.redd.it/obzhilgkded81.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4c85f5bc48192ad89abb063f25baa4e59f4f357

    submitted by /u/mew1946
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    COLDCARD Mk4 Early-Bird reservation, $40 OFF

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 05:55 AM PST

    “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” This quote is popularized & known by all for a reason.

    Posted: 23 Jan 2022 06:38 AM PST

    Anything can happen of course but whenever we're having a sell off like this, it's in times where everyone thinks it's going to be the end of the world. Where they think that everything will crash, that BTC will hit 0 etc. Of course there's much more to it than that but that's one of the things people have on their minds in times like these. During the flash crash in the stock market I was one of those people that was scared of getting in when the stock market kept going down & down & I missed out on all those possible gains. This time with experience from that & the crash from last year on BTC that got us as low as 29k I think it was, I have the conviction to go in.

    Do not buy just because of this post, do your own research & decide whether or not you will regret not buying here. BTC can hit any price, we do not know what it will hit. My investment can go to 0 & I'm okay if it does. High risk, high reward. I don't think it will hit 0, id say prob near high 20's, strong support there. This isnt financial advice. Again, please do not buy because of this post.

    submitted by /u/Profitswhere
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    We are here to tell you why the crypto market is dropping; by the way, absolutely all financial markets are dropping. Let's figure out why this happens:

    Posted: 22 Jan 2022 06:23 PM PST

    We are here to tell you why the crypto market is dropping; by the way, absolutely all financial markets are dropping. Let's figure out why this happens:
    1. Based on IMF (International Monetary Fund) data, global Debt has reached a record of $226 Trillion! In 2020, we observed the largest one-year debt surge since World War II. Global Debt rose by 28 percentage points to 256 percent of GDP in 2020, according to the latest update of the IMF's Global Debt Database.

    https://preview.redd.it/loyy1cy7lcd81.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5eac244c000a39e5fa4a7f31b4d5e772c37ebaf

    ​

    Debt is on the rise! You may ask, what does this mean? This means that against the backdrop of large debts, the world's central banks are printing a large amount of money, but countries have not begun to produce more, and the quality of life of people has not improved.

    ​

    1. All financial markets are down today (Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Cryptomarket, and even precious metals).

    Financial markets have become weak, but the FED has not even raised rates yet, only announced as much. But why have financial markets risen in past years? Most likely because the FED (Federal Reserve System) boosted them artificially.

    ​

    1. Large companies provided financial reports for Q4 2021, the results are:

    Netflix shares fell 20% due to low subscriber growth; Shares of Goldman Sachs fell 7% due to a 13% profit cut etc.

    ​

    1. Hedge funds are selling tech shares at their fastest pace.

    What will happen next? If there is no new bailout and stimulus in the US, company returns will not look good compared to previous years. One simple rule says that if a company does not achieve planned returns, then investors are paying for it. This rule describes the Shiller PE Ratio index. It shows the ratio of a company's share price to its earnings. We see that the Shiller PE Ratio index is overheated now, and usually, an overheated index leads to a fall in the markets; this is happening now.

    https://preview.redd.it/r80bgdkblcd81.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b24d2909344d89212dd0b1b368fcaea715446e07

    submitted by /u/Defy-Trends
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