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    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 30, 2020 Bitcoin Markets

    December 30, 2020

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 30, 2020 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Wednesday, December 30, 2020

    Posted: 29 Dec 2020 08:04 PM PST

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    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    [Altcoin Discussion] Wednesday, December 30, 2020

    Posted: 29 Dec 2020 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • Discussion related to recent events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • General questions about altcoins

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    • Be excellent to each other.
    • All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
    • This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
    • No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

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    MoontMath: The Bottoms Update

    Posted: 29 Dec 2020 03:28 PM PST

    MoontMath: The Bottoms Update

    https://www.moonmath.win

    Seeing some chatter about the range of what we can expect in this bull cycle and I have some thoughts on this. So, I'm making a slightly longer than usual comment. And, since we're talking about something that's totally speculative and fanciful I'm wrapping it up with Moon Math.

    The framing of this question comes from u/biggunsg0b00m

    We've heard everyone's posit on what our next ATH is, but i haven't heard anyone mention what they think the next bear cycle will take us down to.

    Do we need a high before we can predict that?

    I seem to recall that once a new bull run has begun btc has never gone below the previous ATH, but I'm wondering if that's a firm rule in most trading analysis?

    This question is excellent. Focusing on the bottom lets you think rationally about the top. Unfortunately, pondering this question has me contemplating the bottom as a function of the top... and really about the structure of the whole bull market.

    When I think about bitcoin and the CC ecosystem that it has spawned I keep watching a video of a concentric wave singularity over and over:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9N7iMyLEJA

    I worked on an experiment down the street from that lab after University, and the work they did always had bizarre ineffable relevance to my own career.

    When I think about bitcoin and CC I'm considering the movement of the paddles, and the feedback from waves moving back against paddles; paddles and waves working together and producing progressively more powerful concentric wave forms. Each paddle is an altcoin and the value of the whole ecosystem is height, from peak to trough, of the waveform that is produced.

    /u/biggunsg0b00m 's question is focused on the trough of that wave form. They ask "what is the base value of bitcoin after the irrational spike is over?"

    Waves displace water, so the larger the wave the deeper the trough, but a tide is still a tide.

    duh fuq is with this metaphor?

    1. The price of bitcoin is influenced by participants in the space. Fewer participants means less water and smaller waves; less value AND less volatility.
    2. Bigger paddles with more power = bigger waves.
    3. PA can happen that is disproportionate to the number of participants; real value.
    4. We can create a value singularity like we saw in 2013 and 2017 that kills the market for years. Distinct forces create them each time. We can watch them pumping the market in real time.
    5. We have a tide in the form of the halving and new market participants. The tide is the tide regardless of the waves

    The fucking question is about the bottom, yeah?

    Getting there. We can't predict the bottom because we don't really know how much the market is going to increase. I think we all believe that the amount of water in our wave tank is increasing thanks to institutions, and that these institutions have giant fucking paddles. However, we also know that institutions are more likely to exercise restraint in their decision making.

    Regardless, new institutions raise the level of the water.

    Numbers, bitch?

    It is not possible to acquire even 5% of all bitcoin, no matter how much money you have. If you attempt to buy 5% of all bitcoin it will drive the price up substantially beyond affordability for any institution or person to afford. Michael Saylor increased the price of bitcoin by perhaps 25% - 50% by acquiring less than 1% of all bitcoin over 8 months.

    Bitcoin just went over 500 billion in market cap. 5% is 25 billion. If you were to try to buy 25 billion in bitcoin you can look forward to driving the price of bitcoin up over 500% and you would acquire, perhaps, 2% of all bitcoin. You hit 2/5ths of your target and made a big ass wave.

    You need about 33 billion dollars invested in bitcoin every year to support 100k. That's just to cover the cost of mining. So, you pumped the price of bitcoin to 125k with your 25 billion and then the market crashed because that 25 billion in cash doesn't cover the cost of mining.

    You need to add more water if you want to meaningfully raise the bottom of the wave

    To hold bitcoin in this range we need to ensure that 22 million is available to miners every day. That's something like eight and a quarter billion bucks a year. Fuck me, right? But, that's just 7 more Michael Saylors. Grayscale covers that without taking any other institutions, businesses, exchanges, governments, or individuals into consideration.

    Sell pressure, you fucking idiot

    Yeah, yeah. There is a pool of coins that's just waiting to hit their price target, too. So, you're making millionaires all along the way, too. Those folks are putting pressure on the market and actually stabilizing it. When we make new millionaires it keeps the concentric wave singularity from happening.

    The pool of sellers is incredibly important for market stability, but they also add to the underlying cost of the network. However, I don't believe they contribute substantially to the trough of our concentric waves.

    The most important thing to consider is the depth of the water

    Yeah, dummy. The wave shit just happens on the surface, but when you look at that concentric wave singularity it shoots up out of the water three times higher than the depth of the pool.

    Oh fuck

    So what's the bottom? I don't fucking know, but I do think it's a substantially higher place than where we are now. Not, just 2x or 3x above the previous ATH. If we have big players entering these waters we aren't just getting more water; we're getting a bigger fucking tank.

    Also, institutions might be smart enough to prevent a concentric wave singularity, but they're still adding water. The bottom could be 10x or 100x from here. We just don't know how fast or how many of the big kids are going to get into the pool.

    Also, alts, OTC, and degenerate gamblers are still making god damned waves.

    Charts

    1. Nearterm upside possibilities
    2. Long-term upside Possibilities
    3. Projecting Bottom of 40k (all bull cycles)
    4. Projecting Top of 1mil (all bull cycles)

    Good hunting.

    submitted by /u/jarederaj
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    Binance vs. Coinbase

    Posted: 29 Dec 2020 06:43 PM PST

    I've had my small holdings in binance and I've traded a little. When I logged in today it said I needed to make a new account in binance-us within the next 14 days since I am in the US. Is there any reason I shouldn't move to coinbase since they have a mobile app I can actually use? I appreciate any input.

    submitted by /u/tjg9778
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