[Daily Discussion] Sunday, November 08, 2020 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Sunday, November 08, 2020
- [Altcoin Discussion] Sunday, November 08, 2020
- Relatively Small Increase in Bitcoin News
- [Daily Discussion] Saturday, November 07, 2020
- 2020 Bull Cycle Discussion
- [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, November 07, 2020
| [Daily Discussion] Sunday, November 08, 2020 Posted: 07 Nov 2020 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Sunday, November 08, 2020 Posted: 07 Nov 2020 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| Relatively Small Increase in Bitcoin News Posted: 08 Nov 2020 09:40 AM PST |
| [Daily Discussion] Saturday, November 07, 2020 Posted: 06 Nov 2020 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| Posted: 07 Nov 2020 07:10 AM PST Disclaimer: I've been HODLing bitcoin the past few years. I want to see what your guys thoughts are, I can't help but get rid of this nagging feeling I've had. I hope I'm wrong but just want to see what the community thinks. Here goes: We all want BTC to go to $100k, but I feel as though every bull cycle is becoming shorter, and the total %gain from trough to peak are becoming worse. For simplicity sake, I VERY roughly estimated the following cycles with ROI. 2010-2014: $.02-$1000 (5,000,000%) 2014-2017: $250-$19000 (7,600%) 2017-2020: $3000-$14000 (466%) 2020-current: $4000-$16000 (400%) Again, these are very rough estimates just to sketch out a picture, the exact peak-trough numbers can be debated. That being said, the picture I'm seeing is an investment that brings worse and worse ROI with each consecutive cycle. (I know this isn't rocket science and I'm sure most of you have thought about this too) There are thousands of reasons why this could be the case, but I think it mostly boils down to 2 points.
I think all of us see that in each subsequent cycle, a new hype market that draws most of the attention. 2017 was a great year for Bitcoin, but it was an amazing year for altcoins (Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.) January 2018 was just ridiculous with sh!tcoins (Tron, Neo, etc.) 2020 was a great year (after the march crash) for Bitcoin, but it was an insane year for defi. Basically, in order to create insane ROI, you really need to drive in new money and nothing does that better than newly hyped, "innovative" products. That's really hard to do for Bitcoin, now that it's matured and the market is so huge. Takes a lot more money to drive up spot prices than to drive up a random yield farming coin. I'll also comment some anecdotal experience that in 2017, I had friends, family, and random coworkers ask/discuss bitcoin with me because they all knew I was into it. This time around in 2020, not a peep from anyone. People are too busy YOLOing on r/wsb and bitcoin has taken a backseat this time around. One friend that was loosely interested in crypto asked me about defi but that was it.
Similar to equity markets, now that there are mature futures and derivatives markets, institutional and big money goes here. While recently there's been a push by some companies and funds to include actual bitcoin in their portfolio, it's not enough to move the needle 180 degrees. Most would prefer to buy OTC or in large lots through a defined seller. They ain't pushing MARKET BUY with $100,000,000 lol. Also, food for thought but while what's going on in stock prices isn't AS insane as dot-com bubble prices (but still crazy), options has done a great job of magnifying gains similar to dot-com ROI. My thinking is that futures/derivatives are having a similar impact on crypto markets. Prices don't have to reach 2017 highs for speculators/traders to make large gains. Ok, so what? Basically, I wouldn't be too surprised if $16,000 the other day was the peak of this cycle. I would love for that not to be the case, but I think bitcoin hitting around 400% ROI from peak to trough is hitting the upper limit for this market cycle. I know, an arbitrary 400% is very random and It could very well be 430% or 450%. Main point here is that the ROI from peak to trough will be less than the last cycle which was ~466%. I'm not calling the the exact top, I'm just postulating that we're near the top of this cycle if this range bound theory happens again. Yesterday, defi coins started giving one last dead cat bounce, and if anything I view that as an ominous sign that we're in the 9th inning. Whoo, sorry that was a mouthful. If you made it this far, thank you! I wanted to open up a discussion and see what some other folks think. I will always HODL bitcoin, especially with whats going on in central banks now and currencies, but I do feel as though this market cycle is wrapping up. Thoughts? [link] [comments]  |
| [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, November 07, 2020 Posted: 06 Nov 2020 08:06 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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