| [Altcoin Discussion] Friday, November 27, 2020 Posted: 26 Nov 2020 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to: - Discussion related to recent events
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| [Moved from /r/Bitcoin] Price predictions are nonsense, here's mine. Posted: 26 Nov 2020 10:34 AM PST In response to a comment by /u/slippyjke in which he says 'we're headed down, so how far?' I wrote most of this and then realized it's just too long for a comment reply. Nobody knows. Nobody knows how far down, or up. That said, seriously? BTC held over $10,000 since August. That in itself is huge. If anything at all above $10,000 is true support we have entered a new era. Heading down? It's been like 12 hours and a rejection of 19,500 and break of 18,000 support. A few weeks ago 11,000 was a reason to celebrate. Seriously, calm thine tits. As for price predictions I won't Mcafee my right hand's boyfriend but I've been right with 80% of my guesses and here's what I've been saying since the 10k breakout. Temper these with the news that some people are saying Mnuchin is going to try to impose greater restrictions on non-verified wallets getting remittances from exchanges, which I haven't thought deeply enough about yet and which might be contributing to the 19.5 rejection: - Holding above 10k support was and remains huge. It shows a low more promise and interest and I hope it stays this way. It's mainly psychological but it also means that 1 bitcoin is now above the mandatory reporting minimums to the IRS in dollar amounts when deposited to a bank. In other words it "seems" that the community is more comfortable with being held tax accountable every day BTC is above 10k. Yes, everyone knows you can buy / sell / send as much or little BTC as you like. Not the point. To some, appearance is reality.
- Big moves have big corrections. Back in the ancient days, the hairy days, the blood and glory days of twenny ought 17 when men were men and Hodlers were bodler (I swear to god, Oliver, if you steal this writing like you did my other memes I will pound you like you wish Adam Driver would) I knew this but didn't heed my own advice. I bought my second BTC on the famed bull run at 11k. This was a small mistake. I did not sell at $20k. This was a bigger mistake. If I had done so I could have bought 6 BTC when it hit $3,000 and had money left over. Intellectually I knew it would have to correct but I didn't listen to my brain. And I made the other stupid mistake: Trying to time the market. My incorrect prediction, to myself, was that it would bounce and rise and then continue to rise soon. But... soon didn't come until this August, did it? Do yourself a favor and don't listen to the gifs. Buy BTC because you believe in it or don't buy it, a weak hand won't help you and these gifs and the memes and nonsense are just one bit jackass yelling BITCONNEEEEEEEEEECT. Seriously: They try to sell the sizzle but you need to buy the steak.
- What happened yesterday is called a rejection of a double bottom. It's basically a failed bounce and it shows weak support at a given price level. Everyone knew $20,000 is an historic ceiling. It's a big resistance level to approach, let alone break. Many speculators, traders and Hodlers were watching it and ready to sell at that price or to GTFO just before it to reduce their risk basis from when they bought in 2017. Probably tons of limit orders in the book SINCE then! The 18.5 temporary support was, largely, people betting on a breakout. A lot of those people lost faith in that breakout when 19.5 was rejected and, foop, the floor fell out. It's not a big deal. I, for one, am MORE than satisfied if BTC trades between $10,000 and $20,000 for now. A $10,000 floor is a big win. Now people are going to tell you technical analysis is bullshit and nonsense and reading tea leaves. OK, well, make up your own mind. You can see exactly how many trades happened at a given price at a given time and all the trades so if you can't read into that I guess it'll seem mysterious and magical malarkey to you. But if you can look at the chart and see that people were more than willing to buy and sell BTC at 17,000 today when they were only buying and selling it at this volume for 8,000 a couple months ago I think that fall from 19,000 might just not seem quite so intimidating.
- Many people were waiting for the run to end. I wish I weren't asleep for it, I'd have sold and rebought this morning. Might should have and made a few thousand bucks. But simply put when everyone is watching the big red light and standing with one foot out the door there's a predictable result. But, hold up, it's Thanksgiving day and the price has fallen three thousand bucks and... it's bouncing a little already? Not a huge deal. Maybe it continues down week over week but I don't see a big problem.
So, my predictions and we'll see if I can improve my 80% success record! - I am watching the $15,000 zone as a support indicator. It seems to be a good retracement point and if BTC doesn't draw out a new floor above it ($16,000 seems likely) and $15,000 creates a good bounce I think there's a damn good chance this is a hickup on the way back up to $20,000. I really think $15,000 will set the mood if $16,000 doesn't.
- I'm strongly considering buying back in at $13,000. Typically I'll want to catch an uptrend so this is hard with so many predicting $13,000/$13.5 as a hard floor right now but with all the froth in BTC it's not hard to see it go to 12.5 before a bounce. If the price falls under $15,000 and bounces before $13,000 it'd have to be a pretty strong bounce to convince me to buy back at that time. You can say I'm dumb but if you're a super-bull then what's the difference if I have one less BTC? Moon is moon, babe. My reason for selling on this run up was this exact situation (oh shit, 85% now!).
- My bull case is BTC holds above $13,000 and climbs (relatively) slowly past $20,000 and continues to climb, watching short term corrections at every thousand dollar level before 20 and $500 after 20. My bear case is BTC breaks $13,000 support and slowly falls under $10,000 and seeks a floor in the high $8,000's before correlating with the stock market or opposite of inflation. I'm watching $15,000 to see which is more likely. The strength of hands is what's important. If we consolidate above $15,000 for the long weekend I am more than a happy camper.
- Looking at the order book on coinbase it's quite clear the big wall here is just $20k. It's a climb, but it's not at all unlikely to get there. My super-bull case is some upcoming news regarding institutional buyers and the dwindling supply causing a great surge in demand and strong hands refusing to sell. My extreme long-term price for BTC has no upper limit, I see it growing in price for my entire life or until something is able to replace it. I find a replacement very unlikely simply because, seeing how disruptive it is and how much gov'ts wanted to shut it down, I expect they'll put the kibosh on anything with similar qualities that begins to emerge.
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