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    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - August 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    August 09, 2020

    Cryptocurrency Daily Discussion - August 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Daily Discussion - August 9, 2020 (GMT+0)

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 05:12 PM PDT

    Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

    Disclaimer:

    Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

    Rules:

    • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
    • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
    • Comments will be sorted by newest first.

    To see prior Skeptics Discussions, click here.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Me leaving my wife to follow my Crypto destiny.

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 08:05 PM PDT

    Alright bottle cap I’m going all in

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 07:15 PM PDT

    The hypocrisy is real.

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:28 AM PDT

    Finally Have a Lambo

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:53 AM PDT

    A historical day when a boy name Vitalik made this announcement

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 04:18 PM PDT

    Market psychology of how your favorite shitcoin's price increases

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 12:55 AM PDT

    I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? -74%

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:24 AM PDT

    I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? -74%

    ​

    EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 31 -74%

    See the full blog post with all the tables here.

    tl;dr: purchased $100 of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, repeated in 2019 and 2020, update y'all monthly. July was very strong for crypto. For 2018 Top Ten: ADA finished the month on top. ETH and XRP also very strong. Overall, BTC still waaaay in the lead and is approaching break even point. Three cryptos (IOTA,NEM, DASH) have lost over 90% of value. Over three years, cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.

    Month Thirty One – Down 74%

    Summary after 31 months

    Crypto came roaring back in July after an almost all-red June. Each crypto in the 2018 Top Ten finished July at a significantly higher value, led by ADA which ended the month +57%.

    Question of the month:

    Which member of all three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments turned 5 years old in July?

    A) Bitcoin
    B) Ethereum
    C) Bitcoin Cash
    D) XRP

    Scroll down for the answer.

    Ranking and July Winners and Losers

    Not a ton of movement for the 2018 Top Ten group this month. Cardano and XRP both climbed one position while NEM gained two, clawing itself back into the Top Thirty. Dash headed in the other direction, dropping two places in the rankings.

    Considering all that has changed in the world of crypto since the beginning of 2018, it's interesting to note that only four out of the ten cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, and newcomer CRO.

    July Winners – It was a very strong month: all cryptos made significant gains in July. But for the third month in a row ADA outperformed the field, gaining +57% in July. ETH finished a close second, up +55% followed by XRP which gained +52%.

    July Losers – Even during a good month, NEM can't catch a break. Its +23% gain made it the worst performer of the 2018 Top Ten.

    How has your favorite crypto fared over the first 31 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment?

    Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (7) but look at this: thanks to its strong 2020 including three straight monthly wins, Cardano is now right behind BTC with 6 monthly wins. Which project has the most monthly losses? NEM stands alone with 6. Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn't lost a month. It came close this month, gaining "only" +26%.

    Overall update – BTC approaching break even point, second place ETH in the lonely middle, NEM still worst performing.

    Although it wasn't able to keep pace with its peers in July, BTC continues to slowly but surely approach its break even point. It is down about $1,500 (-12%) since my purchase in January 2018. My initial investment of $100 thirty-one months ago is now worth about $88.

    Even though Ethereum has lost half of its value since the experiment began, it is all alone in second place: no other crypto is close.

    NEM seems comfortable in its usual place, down at the bottom. It has lost -94% over the life of the experiment. That initial $100 investment in NEM is now worth $5.78. Dash and IOTA join NEM as the only three cryptos in the Top Ten that have lost at least -90% of their value since January 2018.

    Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

    ​

    Total market cap since Jan 2018

    The crypto market added about $82B in July, making up a ton of ground. The last time we saw a similar level in terms of overall crypto market cap was way back in the fifth month of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment: May 2018.

    Bitcoin dominance:

    Le Bitdom since January 2018

    Since Bitcoin receives much of the attention in the press, it may surprise the casual observer to learn that Bitcoin Dominance dropped quite a bit in July, especially considering BitDom had been stuck at roughly the same level for most of 2020. This signals an interest in altcoins and a willingness to buy into riskier cryptos.

    Some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

    Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

    The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained over $70 in July 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $260, down -74% from January 2018.

    This sounds horrible but don't hang yourself with a celibate rope: the 2018 return on investment is back where it was about a year ago. Take a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:

    Yes, you may notice that the 2018 Top Ten portfolio has finished over half of the first thirty one months down at least -80%, but it's nice to see the low -70s for a change.

    So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -74%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let's take a look:

    So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line:

    After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,6965 ($260+ $1,722 +$1,713).

    That's up about +23% for the three combined portfolios, compared to -10% last month. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I added this metric this year. The previous high was +13% back in January 2020.

    Having trouble visualizing? Don't worry, I got what you need:

    Combined ROI

    So, a +23% gain by dropping $1k on whichever cryptos were in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years, fine. But what if I'd done the same with just one crypto? Bitcoin always wins, right? Thanks to Reddit user u/sebikun for the idea for a new metric and let's take a look:

    3-year club ROI

    As you can see, only five cryptos have remained in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Best one to have gone all in on at this point in the Experiment? Ethereum, which would have nearly doubled. Worst choice? If I went with XRP, I would have been down -23%.

    Comparison to S&P 500:

    I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The US economy continued to recover in July: the S&P 500 is back up to pre-COVID levels. The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $220 had it been redirected to the S&P.

    But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I've been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:

    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$220
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$310
    • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$10

    Taken together, here's the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:

    After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,540.

    That is up over+18% since January 2018, compared to a +23% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.

    That's a 5% swing in favor of the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios! As you'll see in the table below, this is the first time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed the S&P had I taken a similar investment approach. This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just last month.

    ​

    3 x $1k crypto vs. S&P

    Implications/Observations:

    The 2018 Top Ten Cryptos have consistently under-performed when compared to the overall crypto market. This month, for example, the total market cap is down -29% from January 2018 compared to the -74% loss for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. At no point in the first 31 months of the Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the 2018 Top Ten as a group have under-performed the overall market every single month.

    This of course suggests that I would have done a bit better if I'd picked every crypto, or different cryptos: throwing that $1k on January 1st, 2018 to Bitcoin, for example, would have lost me -12% instead of -74%.

    On the other hand, this bit of diversification has served me well compared to going all in on NEM, Dash, or IOTA, all of which are down at least -90%.

    The follow-on Top Ten experiments in 2019 and 2020 have seen similar, but not identical, results. There have been a few examples of the Top Ten approach outperforming the overall market in the first 19 months of the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And up until the last few months of the most recent 2020 Top Ten Index Fund group of cryptocurrencies, this approach had outperformed the overall market 100% of the time.

    Conclusion:

    Crypto had an undoubtedly strong month in July, green across the board. Was this just a happy blip, are we in for some consolidation, or are we on the way up? Stay tuned.

    Final words: take care of each other, wear your mask, wash your hands.

    Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you've found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.

    And the Answer is…

    B) Ethereum

    Ethereum celebrated its 5 year anniversary on July 30th, 2020.

    submitted by /u/Joe-M-4
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    How blockchain exchanges are utilizing traditional exchange technology

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 11:40 PM PDT

    What is the point of Bitcoin?

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 08:47 PM PDT

    Before some of you start to tear me apart, allow me to say that I am a huge fan of cryptocurrency and I believe in its future. However when I look at bitcoin as a currency, it doesn't make much sense. For example you walk into a bar for a drink. The bitcoin transaction would most likely take an hour to get through and the fees would be at a ridiculous amount. Instead of paying $10 for a drink, it will probably be $14.95. Is this literally looked at as digital gold now? What are some alternatives out there? Which coin has instant transaction with little to no fees?

    Newbie here trying to learn more about crypto.

    submitted by /u/girlshero
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    I done did fuckup

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 03:19 PM PDT

    PSA: Crypto.com's recent debacle is a stern reminder that the teams behind a project don't owe you anything and WILL screw you up for the chance of more money.

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 01:47 AM PDT

    This is, honestly, a problem that is far too overlooked by most people investing in a "project".

    "I'm buying this token because this team has a great project and if the project succeeds I'm going to be rich af!".

    No, not really. IF the project succeeds AND the team decides to keep the token around and give some value back to it, THEN you might get some money out of it.

    But that's not a given at all: the team doesn't owe you anything. In fact, admitting they owe you something and they will give value back to the token would be admitting the token is a security, which is basically a death sentence regarding the whole US market.

    So how do you know the team will keep the token around and make sure it gains in value along with the project's success?

    You don't. However, a clear indicator is how much of the supply the team is holding. The higher percentage of the supply the team has, the more incentivized they are to keep the token price decent, especially if part of that supply is locked and only released every X months/years.

    submitted by /u/EuW_MadWard
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    Ex-Goldman Sachs Manager Says He’s ‘Irresponsibly Long’ on Bitcoin After Loading Up on Ethereum

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:30 AM PDT

    Zeus Capital half liquidated, next liquidation level at $12.80

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 09:41 AM PDT

    Bitcoin Is Now Almost As Big as Bank of America

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 02:39 AM PDT

    What it feels like to be an AMPL holder right now. (Friendly Reminder- don’t FOMO).

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:19 AM PDT

    How U.S. Limitations on Wechat Other Chinese Brands Could Encourage Crypto

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 11:51 PM PDT

    OKEx Launched the P2P Crypto Trading Platform in India

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 10:58 PM PDT

    Curve Finance Token (CRV) : Everything You Need to Know

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 12:19 AM PDT

    In December 2017 I spent $10'000 on a couple of "shitcoins"

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 04:19 PM PDT

    After the crash I left them all on the exchange, forgot my crypto stint ever happened.

    Today thanks to Chainlink I am finally green on my ""investment"". Cashing out and moving on with my life.

    Thank you to my stinky linky pile.

    submitted by /u/orvillethehermit
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    "Bitcoin fixes this, by the way."

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 07:21 AM PDT

    Insane. Basically a 10x if you bought anytime before May this year. And 22x if you bought last year around this time and held.

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 03:23 PM PDT

    Bitrue Frozen Assets but no Open Order

    Posted: 09 Aug 2020 12:38 AM PDT

    Hi everyone, I'm still pretty new to crypto and exchanges- I had no trouble putting in an order yesterday and then seeing it in the open orders. Today is different- I put in an order on the exchange and it immediately froze my XRP, fine, but I don't see it on the open orders section. I just see my assets are frozen and no order. Is this normal?

    submitted by /u/tyrsun
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    Zeus and Link

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 06:55 PM PDT

    Coinbase increases Ethereum Classic deposit confirmation time to 2 weeks!

    Posted: 08 Aug 2020 05:53 AM PDT
    Read more
    at

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