[Daily Discussion] Saturday, February 02, 2019 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Saturday, February 02, 2019
- [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, February 02, 2019
- I have some historical order book data - would this be useful for others?
- Bitcoin will spend most of 2019 under 3k: an update.
| [Daily Discussion] Saturday, February 02, 2019 Posted: 01 Feb 2019 08:06 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Saturday, February 02, 2019 Posted: 01 Feb 2019 08:06 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| I have some historical order book data - would this be useful for others? Posted: 02 Feb 2019 10:34 AM PST Long time lurker here - I've been collecting order book data for mostly Bitcoin/FIAT pairs on the major exchanges (Bitfinex, Binance, Bitstamp, Kraken and a few more) for a while, to use for my own backtesting. I feel like this data might be useful for others as well so I wanted to gauge interest - would this be useful for you? The data I have for each exchange is the best 5 bids and asks every three seconds for the past couple of months. You can find a sample on my site at: convertcoin.co/historical-data. If you're interested in learning more, please feel free to comment here or DM me (I'm hoping that I can perhaps cover the server and maintenance costs as the size of the data is starting to grow fairly large!) [link] [comments]  |
| Bitcoin will spend most of 2019 under 3k: an update. Posted: 01 Feb 2019 03:20 PM PST So a few days ago I made this post and, after making it and reading your comments and thinking some more, I had some additional thoughts that I felt were worthy of their own post. So after reading some people saying that bitcoin hasn't gone below the 200 weekly ma and that the 200 ma should act as strong support it occurred to me that the 200 ma literally isn't the same 200 ma as it was during the previous bear market. During the previous bear market, the 200 ma took into account prices from the entirety of bitcoin's history. Now, however, the 200 ma only takes into account prices from about 40 percent of bitcoin's history. It then occurred to me that if we are going to make price predictions based on moving averages, we should look at the moving average that was equivalent to the 200 ma during the previous bear market. That moving average is the 100 week ma. The 200 week ma is about 4 years and bitcoin is 10 years old. The 100 week ma is about 2 years and bitcoin was 5 years old during the previous bear market. So I took a look at these moving averages and the results paint an eerie picture. First of all, to further establish the similarity of the 100 weekly ma to the 200 weekly ma, I want to post a chart of this moving average during the very first bear market, the one after the bubble to 32 dollars. As you can see, we did not go below it during the first bear market, and, in fact, moving averages close to the 100 weekly acted as support during the first bear market just like the 200 weekly did. And of course, during the first bubble, the 100 weekly spiked massively like the 200. So if the 200 weekly ma (an ma that acted as support when it averaged almost all of bitcoin's price history and averages the same percentages of prices now as the 100 ma did during the last bear market) acts the same as the 100 ma, then what does the 100 ma tell us will happen. Well, here's a chart. As you can see, the price broke the 100 ma and spent a year below it hovering around the 150 week ma. It thereby follows that that the price will likely spend upwards of a year or so under the 200 week ma before the bear market is over. (I also posted the rsi in that chart. More on that later.). Before I move on, I want to point out that the above chart gives us some perspective on timeframe and the size of price action. We hugged the 100 ma for over 2 months before breaking below it, then, after we did, it took almost two months to finally bottom out. Even more importantly, the price of bitcoin dropped by half over that time period, from the upper 3ks to the upper 1ks.* Thus, if we drop from 3500 to 1750, this should surprise no one, bitcoin clearly can drop by huge amounts during bear markets and if it happened before, it can happen again. Now, if bitcoin is going to act similar to the previous bear market relative to moving averages, what, then, is the equivalent of the 150 and 200 week moving averages currently? They are the 300 and 400 week moving averages, and this is where they are. So, in theory, once we break the 200 ma, we should dump to the 300 and 400 ma's which in the lower 2ks and upper 1ks. Thus, based on historical analysis of the moving averages, we should expect a bottom in the upper 1ks, with us perhaps spending several week long periods dipping above and below 2k over the course of 2019. Bitcoin only needs to drop an additional 50% for this to happen so this is certainly possible. I also want to add that sentiment supports us finding a bottom in the 1ks. In my previous thread, it is pretty clear the majority of people believe that the bottom will be in the 2ks. Thus, if we actually did bottom in the 2ks, this would surprise no one. Breaking 2ks and going into the 1ks would be a test that would really cause a lot of people to capitulate and truly flush out the weak hands. Finally I want to talk about rsi and its interesting behavior right now compared to what we are doing in the previous bear market. As I pointed out in this post, it is very rare for rsi to spend a long time in the lower 4k to upper 3k region. Indeed, it only did that in the previous bear market. Currently, we are forming a similar plateau in the rsi (just look at the charts in the previous post if you're interested). But perhaps most interestingly, when we were hovering above the 100 week moving average, we were on the first rsi plateau in 2015. We're currently hovering above an equivalent (in some ways)to the 100 week ma and are on a similar rsi plateau right now. Anyway, my point is that the moving averages and rsi are showing some very interesting similarities. They suggest that over the next 4-6 months, we will dump to the upper 1ks before finding support on one of the longer term moving averages. [link] [comments]  |
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