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    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, January 01, 2019 Bitcoin Markets

    January 01, 2019

    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, January 01, 2019 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Tuesday, January 01, 2019

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

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    [Altcoin Discussion] Tuesday, January 01, 2019

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • Discussion related to recent events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • General questions about altcoins

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • All regular rules for this subreddit apply, except for number 2. This, and only this, thread is exempt from the requirement that all discussion must relate to bitcoin trading.
    • This is for high quality discussion of altcoins. All shilling or obvious pumping/dumping behavior will result in an immediate one day ban. This is your only warning.
    • No discussion about specific ICOs. Established coins only.

    If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too.

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    Anyone know if Hong Kong based exchanges share coin to coin trading KYC info with other countries?

    Posted: 01 Jan 2019 06:57 AM PST

    I gave coinex my KYC info and I'm trying to figure out if they share trading data with US tax agencies in particular. I don't think they do, but wanted to ask around just in case.

    Before the "pay your taxes gang" trolls my post, I do pay my taxes on crypto. But for coin to coin trades it's more complicated than that. I still haven't figured out what I need to do taxwise for forked coin drops, and of course the IRS has issued no guidance at all for several years. It would be nice to know what kind of information might be shared by exchanges to help inform what kind of reporting I should do to make sure they match up.

    submitted by /u/Eric578
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    Moon Math Update: Noob DCA Strategy -- Second Edition -- Vol. 11

    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 03:31 PM PST

    https://www.moonmath.win

    The noob DCA strategy is complete. I suggest that you continue making your regularly scheduled, affordable, and responsible purchases using disposable income that you can afford to lose. If you are willing and able then look into a more aggressive strategy to double your current holdings over the next six months to a year. I'll outline a strategy that will easily do that below.

    Performance review

    We have completed 241 days in the noob DCA and there are 0 days left for you to establish your first full position in Bitcoin.

    19 out of 241 days in this DCA have closed below the current price of 3807. If you bought the closing price every day since the start of this DCA your USD cost average per BTC would be $7616.66. If you increased your buy amount as suggested then your cost average per BTC would be ~ $6115 and your total bitcoin would be about 50% greater.

    • Buying $5/day at closing price would have earned you 0.201 BTC
    • Increasing that buy as suggested would have earned you 0.387 BTC
    • Buying 0.001 BTC at closing price would have earned you 0.241 BTC
    • Increasing that buy as suggested would have earned you 0.337 BTC

    New Series: Moon Math wants a Model X

    I'm starting a more aggressive DCA/trading fund to buy a Tesla. This is an extended DCA based on USD contributions.

    A Tesla Model X starts at $84,000 and goes up to $140,000. A loan payment on something like that will run from $1500 a month to $3000 a month. I can't afford that, but we want a model X, anyway. What to do?

    Moon Math will deposit $500 that are dedicated to buying bitcoin every month until the fund has enough value to buy a model X (or equivalent) and pay US capital gains taxes.

    Opening a USD savings account and saving $500 a month I will be able to buy a model X in 13.3 years. If Bitcoin grows at the current 2012 CDPR (0.02587%) then I'll be able to afford a Tesla in about 7 years (210% gain). This assumes that I sell similar bottom-ish conditions. If I manage to sell bitcoin at the top of another bubble then we'll observe a year over year CDPR that's between 0.8 and 1.5… or higher. A lower bubble CDPR of 0.8 buys a Tesla and pays capital gains tax in about 4.5 years (3400% gain). A peak CDPR of 1.5% will produce a Model X in about 2.5 years (5500% gain).

    It's unlikely that we'll see an extended bubble that reaches over a multi-year performance of 1% CDPR at any point. I'm guessing this DCA will only cut my wait time in half or in a third. So, millage will vary. If this goes the way the Noob Series went then I'll be driving a slick new Tesla in 30 years or so.

    Also, I'm going to hold back buying sometimes. I might stop buying bitcoin if I think it's overpriced. I'll still transfer the cash to the exchange at the beginning of the month, but I may not buy BTC that month. For example, I transferred $500 to the exchange at the beginning of this month, but I haven't bought BTC with it yet. I think Bitcoin is undervalued today, but I don't believe Bitcoin will enter a bull market until after it decouples from alts more. I'll let you guys know when I start buying in the daily or as part of a series update.

    What's this about altcoins?

    Altcoins play an important role in the market by way of rehypothecation of bitcoin. Late last year we saw bizarrely large orders for Bitcoin. Those buys were leveraged positions on exchanges that support altcoins or stable coins, or both. I'm speculating that most leveraged positions are financed through comparatively low market cap altcoins and that the big winners of 2018 were gamblers who took out large leveraged short positions using capital accumulations in altcoin markets.

    I'm nervous about this market until I see the amount of leveraged trading drop as a percentage of OTC transactions. A big part of that evaluation is going to be based on bitcoin decoupling from altcoin markets, which I don't believe it has done yet.

    Good hunting.

    Previous posts in this series

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