[Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 31, 2019 Bitcoin Markets |
- [Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 31, 2019
- [Altcoin Discussion] Thursday, January 31, 2019
- Kraken's Public WebSockets API is live
- What future is waiting for Bitcoin?
- LN and its implications on price
- Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino On Recent Data Migration, Performance Improvements + What's To Come (Futures, Social Trading)
- EXCLUSIVE LEAKED NEWS
| [Daily Discussion] Thursday, January 31, 2019 Posted: 30 Jan 2019 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
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| [Altcoin Discussion] Thursday, January 31, 2019 Posted: 30 Jan 2019 08:05 PM PST Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
Thread guidelines:
If you're not sure what kind of discussion belongs in this thread, here are some example posts. News, TA, and sentiment analysis are great, too. Other ways to interact:
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| Kraken's Public WebSockets API is live Posted: 31 Jan 2019 06:03 AM PST We have recently gone live with our Public WebSockets API which enables faster and easier access to Kraken's market data. We have also integrated it into our trading interface, Cryptowat.ch: https://twitter.com/krakenfx/status/1090711027946160128 You can find documentation on it here: https://www.kraken.com/en-gb/features/websocket-api We have answers to some common questions here: https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/360022326871-Public-WebSockets-API-common-questions Do I need to have a Kraken account to use the API? No – the websockets public API is freely available for anyone to use. Will there later be a WebSockets private API to track my orders and trades? Yes – we plan to offer this in the future but no ETA is available at this time. What are the advantages of the WebSockets public API? The main advantage is that market data will quickly stream to clients with no polling required. Clients simply use the API to establish a durable, low latency connection with Kraken's servers, then the servers will push the market data incrementally to clients as soon as an update is available. Let us know what you think and if you have any questions feel free to reach out! [link] [comments]  |
| What future is waiting for Bitcoin? Posted: 31 Jan 2019 07:26 AM PST Last year Bitcoin cost over $9000. Now it costs less than $3500. What do experts think about its future for this year? Nuriel Rubini, one of the several economists who predicted the crisis in 2008, is an outspoken critic of bitcoin. He called him "the father of all the bubbles," and last month wrote on Twitter that he and the other crypto-foreigners like Ethereum and Litecoin should be exposed in the "2018 Shame Hall." Stephen Innes, head of trading in the Asia-Pacific region of Oanda Corp., is moderately optimistic. He believes that the risk of falling still exists, but it begins to seem to him that we will see a rise to $5,000, and maybe even to $6,000. A lot of investors invested money in any company which had business with blockchain. Today this word doesn't have such a tempting sound. Nevertheless, technology turned the business, and the growth of cryptocurrency promised a future outside the traditional financial system. The blockchain has future in IT-sector of the economy. And it will save the cryptocurrency as the payment for using it. Previously, Bitcoin's price had a specular character. It is becoming brighter than its market value now. The information above cannot be considered as an investment advice and past results do not indicate future performance. \*Investors should have experience and understand the risks of losing all the initial investment* [link] [comments]  |
| LN and its implications on price Posted: 31 Jan 2019 08:15 AM PST Hello again. I made this post originally in the daily, but Mr. Moonmath suggested to post it as a self-post so here it comes ;) with a few edits here and there as many people who commented gave a good input on what I wrote: I know fundamentals is not a thing that should be discussed too much on /r/BitcoinMarkets as it's primarily about the market but as /r/Bitcoin is utterly delusional, /r/BTC is not about Bitcoin but Bitcoin Cash and /r/BitcoinDiscussion doesn't like price talks, I feel a little bit forced to write about it in here. My topic is LN and its implications on price. There are two main aspects about Bitcoin that people seem to be interested about: on the one hand it's the "Store of Value"-mentality, where Bitcoin is similar to gold, but in a digital form. On the other hand there is the "Medium of Exchange"-mentality, where Bitcoin works as a global currency. In 2017 and 2018, we pretty much peaked in terms of transaction volume. The mempool was completely clogged and transactions took 40$+ to go through. Where Bitcoin Cash and other coins try to scale the amount of processable transactions with an increased blocksize, Bitcoins solutions are, as of now, the SegWit softfork, LN and sidechains. SegWit is actually working, but has not reached the desired block-capacity of 2,4MB. Instead it's hovering in the range between 1,1-1,2MB. It's likely because only around 40% of the transactions are SegWit transactions. Sidechains are, IMHO, a double-edged sword and they didn't really deliver so far. If I'm wrong on this, please feel free to correct me ;) . And yes, I heard about liquid and how good it's supposed to be, but I have not seen a huge impact yet or hard facts. So what's left? LN, a possible block-size increase and scaling solutions that have not been developed yet. As the block-size increase needs a huge majority of the Bitcoin-participants to agree on a hardfork and its terms, this might take a very long time. We can't discuss about scaling-solutions that don't exist yet, so let's just talk about LN and some numbers. So we want to assume that Bitcoin scales up to Visa levels of transaction-capacity ( if we believe that Bitcoin is more a medium of exchange than a store of value). /u/CONTROLurKEYS pointed out that there is no real incentive to stop using your credit-card if Bitcoin really takes off. I agree to disagree on this point as I'd feel much more safe if I could decouple myself from any company(!) who tries to profit off of me doing transactions. I'd rather give my money to the miners than to banksters but that's just me. Going on: looking at the numbers, there are roughly 900 million Visa credit cards out there. Assuming that every card belongs to one person, we get 900 million visa users. For my calculations I'm going to use 1,000 million users as an approximation because it's easier to handle in calculations. If everyone of those 1 billion users wants to make micro transactions via LN, we'd need at least 1 channel for every user. That would be 1 billion channels minimum. Assuming that hubs are going to have many channels to other hubs and that there are going to be smaller hubs that don't acutally act like a user but simply as a payment processor, there are going to be many more channels. But for the sake of argument, let's assume that, to serve 1 billion people, we'd need 1 billion channels. So now let's talk about what a micro-transaction is and what the least amount inside a LN channel should be. Many people take the coffee transaction as the standard example for a micro-transaction. That example is okay'ish, but when you think about it, it's not only coffee-transactions that happen on a daily basis. People go to supermarkets, pay their bills, buy fuel for their cars and so on. Considering that we're processing around 300k transactions per day, we have to categorize those payments also as micro-payments. If everybody of the 1 billion users would clog the blockchain with their bread and butter purchases, we will get nowhere with a 1MB blocksize. So what is the worst purchase that you're doing on a daily basis when you think about the price of that transaction? My biggest day to day transaction would be buying fuel for my car. The cost for that is easily 100$. So if I want to do this payment via LN, my channel would need a balance of at least 100$ in form of BTC. 1 billion channels at 100$ would be 100 billion $. If we look at the LN capacity now, the capacity is very very small in comparison to the available supply. Let's say 10% of all BTC ever available lands inside LN channels. Yes, this is a number I pulled out of my ass, but if you compare the amount of money you have in your cash-wallet in comparison to your net worth or your savings in your bank-account, that would also be less than 10%. More like 1% or less. Let's play it through with both scenarios and let's say that only 1 million BTC is lost forever so the math gets easier. LN Capacity in % of total Bitcoin supply: 10% = 2,000,000 BTC 1,000,000,000 channels à 100$ would be 100,000,000,000$ in LN channels (which is not considering the big player money between the hubs). For this scenario to actually work, BTC price would need to be 50,000$... LN Capacity in % of total Bitcoin supply: 1% = 200,000 BTC 1,000,000,000 channels à 100$ would still be 100,000,000,000$ in LN channels (which is still not considering the big player money between the hubs). For this scenario to actually work, BTC price would need to be 500,000$..... In addition to that, the numbers I took were chosen in a way that BTC price would not look too ridiculously high. 100$ per channel for example is IMHO not that much if you really want to pay for groceries and fuel and all the other daily stuff without a need to refund the channel every few days. I track every penny I spend and earn each month and the numbers for me, if I refund my LN channel each month would be: 200$ for food + toilet paper + other consumables, 200$ for car bills + fuel, 50$ for hobbies, 100$ for other forms of transportation, 50$ for my mobilephone-bills + Amazon Prime + barber. That would be already 600$ total. I don't mind refunding my LN channel each month with that much money as the money is going to be spend on those things anyways and is in some form already tied as monthly expanses. Let's just say I pay 400$ in rent for my appartment so the numbers add up again, that would be 1,000$ in my LN channel. Yes, if you think about it, it appears dumb to pay rent via LN. But on the other hand, if 1,000,000,000 people would broadcast a blockchain-transaction for their rent each month, the blockchain would be clogged in no time again. 100$/channel in comparison to 1,000$/channel adds a factor of *10 to the calculations above. Consider that every person in the world would use Bitcoin and LN? Add a factor of *8 to both scenarios. You think LN capacity will be less than 1% of total Bitcoin supply? Add another factor. You think more than 1,000,000 BTC is lost for ever so the supply is even less? Add another factor. If you take the most conservative model where 10% of Bitcoin supply at a max of 20M BTC (which is actually not going to happen bc more BTC than that are lost) would be in LN, 1/8 of the population uses LN for there daily transactions and their channels have each 100$ in it, we'd end up with a market cap of 50,000$ * 20,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000 = 1 trillion$. That's the most conservative assumption on marketcap considering that LN is going to work as promised and gets as much adoption as E-Mail got in the uprising of the internet. I'm not posting these numbers to spit moon juice all over the place but to put things into perspective. 1 trillion$ is not a small amound of money but not too big either if you think about a global digital currency. Taking 1/2 of the population, channel capacities per person of 1,000$, LN capacity at 1% of BTC available with max 1,000,000 BTC lost forever: LN Capacity in % of total Bitcoin supply: 1% = 200,000 BTC 4,000,000,000 channels à 1,000$ would be 4,000,000,000,000$ in LN channels (which is still not considering the big player money between the hubs). For this scenario to actually work, BTC price would need to be 20,000,000$ which would put the mcap to 400,000,000,000,000$ or 400 trillion$. Which is basically fifty times the mcap of all the gold in the world. What I'm trying to say is, if you guys and gals are really thinking that LN is going to work out the way everybody promises, and all the little things that are still a little bit hard like refunding channels from different parties and routing bigger amounts, Bitcoin would actually need to be priced in the range of X00,000$ - XX,000,000$. At that point you really don't need to trade it and just throw your money into this thing. So if you really believe in LN and that LN is going to be the TCP/IP of Bitcoin just go all in. I'm definitely pro Bitcoin and I also think that a very big majority of altcoins are not adding any value to the world, but the numbers and calculations above just seem utterly ridiculous. 20,000,000$/BTC? I mean come on... basically everybody in this subreddit would be a millionair if the LN-promises are going to be met. In addition to that /u/gr8ful4 pointed out, that opening 1,000,000,000 channels would need 1,000,000,000 blockchain-transactions. Let's say we process 333,333 transactions per day. That would mean that we would need 3,000 days for just opening those channels and we're not even considering closing channels and all the other transactions that are happening on-chain. If I have any logical mistakes or wrong assumptions let me know and let's discuss a little bit. The price is not doing exciting things anyways. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2019 01:27 AM PST Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino stopped by Whalepool yesterday to discuss recent developments at Bitfinex. Topics discussed include recent data migration, managing our own infrastructure, short + long-term performance improvements, as well as what to expect from Bitfinex in the comings months. Full session available here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/372334457. [link] [comments]  |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2019 07:08 AM PST This is an exclusive leaked news which I obtained today that might affect the markets in a big way. So some weeks ago, someone mentioned that a huge thing is coming to crypto space and my source is part of a huge team working for them. I spent some good money to pay for "better information" and learnt quite a lot about what is coming. But happy to leak a tiny bit of information with you guys because good guys always share. They are preparing for the official press release next month and I was told they are not supposed to talk about it. Money do wonders though, have a good fapping month ahead. https://porn.cash/mshareddocs/PR_20190218.pdf Apparently, I am not the only one who knows. The teams working on the project are huge and it is impossible to keep everyone quiet. Source: https://np.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/ak3yhp/for_bch_supporters_out_there_do_you_guys_only/ef1d3mo/ Since I know people from the inside, I am pushing them to accept bitcoin as well so wish me luck. If you appreciate this, send some bitcoin or bcash to me and I might reveal more. 1EgUZ5tvQXxxVh2xipNtJs5mFAw8Bi8GHr [link] [comments]  |
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