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    Cryptocurrency Daily General Discussion - April 11, 2018

    April 11, 2018

    Cryptocurrency Daily General Discussion - April 11, 2018

    Daily General Discussion - April 11, 2018

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 11:12 PM PDT

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    Official: The European Commission will invest $370 million in projects supporting the use of blockchain and will actively support blockchain ecosystems

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 09:31 AM PDT

    "People Trust Satoshi Nakamoto More Than The Fed" - what a quote from the head of the NYSE!

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 04:31 PM PDT

    A brief history of the 2013-2015 crypto bear market, why "99% of alts die" is misleading, and what would've happened if you'd invested a week after the last crash

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 01:03 PM PDT

    I've had several recent conversations on this sub that inspired me to do some analysis. This is the result.

    TL;DR: The last bear market lasted for 17 months, during which total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by ~76% from its all-time high. If you'd invested $400 in BTC and $400 in the bottom 20 alt-coins (by market cap), then as of today's date, your investments would be worth ~$11,564 (BTC) and ~$18,740 (alts)--a total of ~$30,304--despite the fact that 16 out of the bottom 20 alts disappeared in the intervening years. I believe the lesson here is to spread your alt-coin investments out.

    What Happened in the Last Bear Market?

    This section was inspired by /u/MisterKyles 's post.

    According to CoinMarketCap, during the earlier bull market, total crypto market capitalization peaked on November 30, 2013, at ~$15.2 billion. Thereafter, a long bear market began, during which total market cap bobbed up and down for over a year, hitting its first major low of ~$3.6 billion on January 16, 2015--a ~75% drop--and then going back up to as high as ~$4.7 billion in mid-March. Finally, on April 26, 2015, the market hit bottom at ~$3.5 billion--a ~76% drop.

    This year, total crypto market cap hit an all-time high of ~$828 billion on January 7, 2018. If the current bear market were to exactly mirror the 2013-2015 bear market (and it won't, but this is still a good jumping-off point), then we would expect to see the market hit a low of ~$196 billion by mid-June 2019.

    As I write this, we're currently at ~$260 billion (i.e., down ~68.5% from ATH), having hit a low of ~$248 billion in the past few weeks (i.e., down ~70% from ATH). This suggests that we may still have a significant distance to go--both in terms of time (i.e., another ~14 months) and market cap lost (i.e., ~25% of the current market cap)--before we see the bottom of the current market. I'm personally somewhat more bullish than that, as I think any correction will be over by the end of Q3 2018, but that's what would happen if this crash were to exactly mirror the last one.

    What if You Invested Money Shortly After the Market Hit Bottom?

    This next section was inspired by a comment by /u/SlinkiesAreSpies , who wrote,

    99% of alt coins die

    We then proceeded to have a vigorous debate about it, during which I was referred to this market snapshot, from May 3, 2015--i.e., exactly one week after the market hit bottom in 2015.

    Of the top 20 coins by market capitalization, 17 are still around--that is, only three coins, or 15%, died.

    Of the bottom 20 coins (i.e., the coins ranked 522-542 on that day), 4 are still around--that is, of the worst coins from this arbitrary date, 80% are gone. That's absolutely terrible, but it's nowhere near 99%.

    So, let's look at the prices of the four survivors from the bottom 20:

    • Tigercoin (TGC; current rank: 1075): Up from $0.000125 to $0.005188--a 41x gain. Worth noting, however, that the trading volume was only $46 in the past 24 hours.

    • Dotcoin (DOT; current rank: 542): Up from $0.000034 to $0.018939--a 557x gain. Volume was not terrible, at ~$24k in the past 24 hours.

    • TrickyCoin (TRICK; current rank: 1555, apparently due to lack of data): Up from $0.000029 to $0.006463--a 222x gain. Worth noting that CoinMarketCap has very little info on this coin right now. As an aside, I'll also add that the coin's name doesn't exactly inspire confidence...

    • Coin(0) (CNO; current rank: 1061): Up from $0.000021 to $0.002807--a 133x gain. Worth noting, however, that volume was only $4 in the past 24 hours.

    So, would I buy any of the above coins today? Probably not. That said, however, let's imagine the following experiment:

    1. Put $400 in BTC on May 3, 2015. BTC has increased 28.9x since then, so you'd have $11,564 as of today's date.

    2. Put $20 in each of the bottom 20 coins on May 3, 2015. In this experiment, 16 of the coins that you purchased die, so you lose $320. However, the remaining $80, which is spread across the four coins that survived is worth $19,060. This means that your net profit is $18,740, which is $7,176, or 62% more than you would have made if you'd invested in Bitcoin.

    Finally, even assuming that you decide to count TGC, TRICK, and CNO as "dead" due to lack of trading volume/information, you've still made $11,140 from DOT alone--which is almost on-par with BTC.

    I think the lessons here are (1) although a majority of low-ranked alt-coins die, it's nowhere near 99%; and (2) you should probably spread alt-coin investments out.

    I'm also considering running this as an experiment with the current 522-542-ranked coins, but I probably don't have the cash right now. Feedback on this post is very much appreciated!

    Edits: Typos, fixed a link

    submitted by /u/ThaneduFife
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    A Deep Dive Into Binance Coin

    Posted: 11 Apr 2018 02:01 AM PDT

    Genesis Vision launches alpha version of its platform

    Posted: 11 Apr 2018 02:51 AM PDT

    ARK.IO - Hammers, Awesome Beard, and Solid Tech

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 11:57 PM PDT

    This screenshot was taken exactly one year ago today. So much has changed!

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 11:25 AM PDT

    Bear Market 'Largely Over,' Crypto Hedge Fund Manager Claims

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 03:27 PM PDT

    Massive Rockefeller Wealth to Invest in Cryptocurrencies

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 10:40 AM PDT

    Australia: Power plant to be reactivated for bitcoin mining

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 05:48 PM PDT

    Bitcoin industry steals top talent from banks and tech companies - brain drain continues. Top-notch talent is always a key component of any successful company/industry and top talent is flocking to bitcoin and crypto.

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 09:47 AM PDT

    Canada Proves Crypto Is Here To Stay.

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 06:31 PM PDT

    Rockefellers Go Long On Cryptocurrencies to Invest in Blockchain Startups

    Posted: 11 Apr 2018 12:46 AM PDT

    Bittrex (Crypto Exchange): Is Taking New Customers Again

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 10:20 AM PDT

    Signs that the Bears are going into hibernation

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 06:45 PM PDT

    Signs of bears going to sleep

    • Hype has well and truly settled. Google trends data We are at October 2017 levels.

    • Trading volume is low and stable. So low that /u/arsonbunny has speculated exchanges are manipulating BTC to liquidate margin traders en-masse to make profits.

    • International sentiment towards blockchain and technology development is positive. Sentiment towards true cryptocurrencies is still negative however. No government will support a currency that they are unable to control.

    • Global market cap has returned to mid-November 2017 levels, which was the period before the media frenzy started. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

    • BTC dominance is flattening out, with small-cap Alts increasing their percentage share in last 2 weeks and mid-cap Alts starting in last few days. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

    • Filing deadline for U.S. federal income tax returns coming up: Tuesday, 17 April in USA. Most large investors have taken out the relevant amount they need to put aside for their taxes.

    • BTCUSDSHORTS at a sharp ATH, looking overdue for a correction. It's almost parabolic. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDSHORTS/

    • Cryptobusinesses are relentlessly expanding. Coinbase, Binance, Bitmain, Circle+Poloniex are all developing rapidly.

    • Regulatory framework is in development.1

      • China is it's own beast, once the regulatory framework is in place the country will open up as a blockchain technology hub. Think Chinese economic reform for blockchain

    • Exchanges are moving closer towards fiat trading pairs and regulatory compliance

    • Institutional finance is entering the markets.1

    1 Will not increase the price of coins. This will promote price discovery and decrease overall volatility.

    I reckon the market will bottom out sometime between now and end of April. I'm keeping fiat ready to invest heavily when the reversal begins.

    What do you think?

    • Signs pointing towards a prolonged and continuing bear market?
    • Signs pointing towards a reversal and start of a bull market?
    submitted by /u/enozym111
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    This bear market is setting the stage for a move, unlike anything we have seen before. If Bitcoin can rise to $20,000 with little to no institutional backing, then the stage has been set for a fun ride ahead for those that hodl.

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 09:01 AM PDT

    Golem, the "Airbnb for Computers," Launches on Ethereum Mainnet in Beta

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 01:20 PM PDT

    A Blockchain Bill Has Officially Been Signed Into Arizona State Law

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 09:49 PM PDT

    Mobilink- Proof of Concept - Hong Kong -SIM card that provides unlimited talk, text and data for a single payment. No more phone bills!

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 07:11 PM PDT

    1 in 5 University Students Used Loan Money for Cryptocurrency Investments

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 11:13 PM PDT

    Golem Release Brass Mainnet on Github

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 04:32 AM PDT

    Jeffrey Sprecher, International Exchange Chairman & CEO: "People put more faith in a guy named Satoshi Nakamoto that no one has ever met, than they do in the US Fed." & "Cryptocurrency is a trend that cannot be ignored"

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 03:27 PM PDT

    The Strengths of the World Book, Liquid & QASH - Can it decouple altcoins from Bitcoin?

    Posted: 11 Apr 2018 12:58 AM PDT

    22 European countries signed a Declaration on the establishment of a European Blockchain Partnership

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 09:37 AM PDT

    IOTA: Next big thing or vaporware?

    Posted: 10 Apr 2018 04:56 PM PDT
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