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    Thursday, February 8, 2018

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 08, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 08, 2018 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 08, 2018

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

    Thread guidelines:

    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

    Other ways to interact:

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    UpBit guarantees Tether will be 1:1 USD even if there's a future USDT problem.

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 07:37 PM PST

    https://twitter.com/CryptoOfKorea/status/961087459093307393

    UpBit's stance on Tether is announced:

    "We are aware that there are various suspicions related to Tether," said an UpBit official.

    "We will compensate the same amount of money to customers who have USDT on our exchange even if there is a problem."

    submitted by /u/CheslinK
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    11 Signs that everything is going to be fantastic in Crypto World

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 02:54 AM PST

    ❤️11 Signs that everything is going to be fantastic❤️

    1. Singapore just announced it has no intention of making crypto illegal.❤️

    2. The market is still 3x what it was 6 months ago❤️

    3. Australia's big 4 banks have no intention of barring people from buying crypto.❤️

    4. Banks are starting to use crypto for cross border payments.❤️

    5. The stock markets are down $1 trillion this week, crypto markets are doing better.❤️

    6. Bitcoin ATM installations are on the rise.❤️

    7. Singapore airlines wants to use block chain tech for it's loyalty program❤️

    8. Europe's Largest Utilities company is ready and willing to Sell Renewable Energy to Cryptocurrency Miners.❤️

    9. Bittrex about to reopen user sign ups and add USD trading option.❤️

    10. CFCT chair declares that the aim is to protect the consumer with a "Do no Harm" approach to regulation.❤️

    11. Everything is on sale❤️

    What the news says and what the news means can be 2 completely different things. While many people may feel that they got burnt buying bitcoin in December, the reality is that this is still a normal correction.❤️

    No one wants to ban crypto!

    Tier 1 Countries have no desire to ban crypto, the world is still preparing for mass adoption, banks are not preventing people from buying crypto, big institutions are using crypto daily, the SEC aim to protect consumers against fraud in crypto and the crypto market is still larger than what it was 6 months ago.

    What does all this mean?

    A lot of the news in recent times have painted a rather grim picture of the crypto space - there's a lot of FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) mixed in with fake news and rumours that fuel negative sentiment. Take everything into consideration from a holistic point of view rather than focussing on the scary bits.

    The one bit of news that needs clarity is the fear that banks are helping to 'ban' crypto by preventing people from buying crypto - this is simply not true.

    Banks are stopping people from buying crypto using credit cards because frankly, it doesn't make sense that people use credit to buy other money. The banks also need to mitigate credit risk and fraud by taking this stance. So now that you know, doesn't the future seem brighter and so much more exciting? Remember, it's always darkest before the dawn. Oh yeah, and everything is on sale!❤️❤️❤️

    submitted by /u/puricrypto
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    Kraken 8 months waiting

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 06:12 AM PST

    Can we please finally settle this! 8 months is way to long.. for an email change

    support number 831812 /u/Kraken-Tyler /u/kraken-jpj

    should be first in line by now

    submitted by /u/Md86
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    Nice pump OKEx. I am watching

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 03:56 AM PST

    My theory about the bull run of 2017, the crash and institutions (THEORY)

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 08:34 PM PST

    My theory is that the crypto markets, being unregulated and volatile, are just what institutional investors have been looking for. For the past few years they've been starved of volatility due to stagnant equity markets.. a common investment to have in the portfolio of a hedge fund is XIV, an ETN (exchange traded note) that increases in value as the volatility of the stock market decreases.

    The question is, how do they enter the market without causing a massive bubble and thus exposing themselves to significant risk? The crypto market cap is currently very small in comparison to other markets. They need to take control of the supply.

    Step 1 - Accumulation

    Accumulate loads of bitcoin at low prices (sub 8k), buying without making it look like you're buying/driving the price up. This is done by buying when other people are selling. e.g.

    Jamie Dimon calls bitcoin a fraud, Institutions sell off some of their stockpile to spark a sell off, 8% drop the next day, weak hands get scared and sell their crypto as well creating a snowball effect, Institutions buy back more crypto than they sold, so they have a net gain without driving the price up too much, The price of bitcoin recovers quickly

    I believe that this was repeated for most, if not every boom/bust bitcoin had in 2017, only the news each time was different. They wait for news to sell to make a crisis seem much worse than it is and to persuade retail investors to sell.

    Next phase - the mark up

    Once they have accumulated enough crypto, they start to really pump up the price - Bullish news comes out - e.g. bitcoin futures rumoured to be launching in December - Institutions start pumping the price, mainstream media covers the rise, new investors get involved, this causes the price to go parabolic to 20k

    At this stage, the big investors are sitting on a pile of bitcoins, with a cost average of probably way under 10k per coin. Yet, they still have a small percentage of the overall number of bitcoins in existence. To lock in profits, bitcoin futures release and they short bitcoin futures at 20k which hedges their positions without tanking the price of bitcoin.

    Distribution phase

    • They slowly sell their bitcoin without driving down the price, this is done by spreading bullish news and selling on the rallies. This is why the price increase seemed to be slowing down between 15-20k. (If you know how to interpret technical analysis, there is huge bearish divergence in the december charts which indicates that there was more selling going on than shown in the price alone)

    They then dump the majority of their bitcoins onto the market (See flash crash from 20k-10k) but of course this gets bought up as people are accustomed to 'buying the dip' on 50% flash crashes. The institutions are now net short.

    The price returns to the highs but any good trader would've been able to spot the divergence using TA and would probably sell/short at the next top (bull trap)

    Step 3- Taking control of the market

    • FUD begins to show up (south korea ban, bitfinex/tether). Every time new FUD comes out, the institutions dump some more of their coins with the intention of driving the price down. They still turn a profit on these coins as they were accumulated at low prices. This goes on until the end of Jan and people begin to panic as this doesn't feel a normal crash. People are still in denial and blame it on various reasons (christmas holidays, chinese new year, futures manipulation)

    By this point, the price of a bitcoin is approx 10-12k and the institutions have made profit twice - from shorting the futures at 20k to 10k, and from selling bitcoins between 15-20k that were bought at under 10k a coin.

    Most of the bitcoins are now in weak hands i.e. investors who got in at 20k because of FOMO. The institutions proceed to dump the rest of their bitcoins on the market and drive the price down to a range where they will once again accumulate coins (5-10k). They time the dumps so that it wrecks any technical analysis or previous trends. People are not convinced that this is a normal crash and begin to panic.

    When the 'bubble' reaches the capitulation stage (5-7k) the institutions begin accumulating again. They buy until it reaches the top of the range, and then they set up huge buy walls (support) on exchanges. They then sell into their own walls with huge market orders that scare retail investors into selling, driving the price down to the bottom of the range.

    They manage to keep the price rangebound until the strongest handed retail investors get bored/frustrated and sell their assets. At this point, the institutions have a huge share of the cryptocurrency supply and are ready another mark up phase which they coincide with news events (SEC meeting, litepay, etc) to give it the impression of a genuine recovery. This time round, they have a large share of the supply and the strongest HODLers are hungry for coins to 'buy the dips'

    Why do they need a big share of the market? Because if institutions all entered the market at once, the market cap would be in the trillions and a single bitcoin would probably be worth 100-500k. You would still have people who invested early on and had thousands of bitcoins. These people would be able to tank the market at any time just by selling a small fraction of their holdings. This is an obvious risk for institutions who wish to get involved with actual crypto, rather than crypto derivatives.

    Let me know what you think of my theory.

    submitted by /u/qualityover_quantity
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    Trading Cryptocurrency 101 - The Anatomy Of A Breakout

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 08:21 PM PST

    VIEW THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

    This weeks pattern is the breakout, a pattern that a lot of traders use to form the basis of their entire strategy. There are two main ways to trade a breakout. From a short term perspective such as trading the push that follows a breakout or using a breakout across a key resistance or support level to spot the first signs of a trend reversal.

    submitted by /u/Senorviva
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    Most Efficient Mining Technique

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 05:54 AM PST

    So I was looking at this nicehash software's list of algorithms for my gtx 1050. There's one algorithm with 1.6+ GH/s but with .0000092 BTC and another algorithm with MH/s speed but with a higher BTC of .0001343 or something like that amount. Which one is the most profitable to solve in the long run? I'm looking to solve 1 or 2 algorithms only and ditch the ones that yield the least or have a very low hash rate.

    submitted by /u/audaku
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    Another possible US govt. shutdown in next 48 hours, is this bullish news ?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 11:55 PM PST

    In next 48 hours another possible US govt. shutdown is a possibility https://www.reuters.com/article/legal-us-usa-congress-shutdown/u-s-senate-leaders-reach-300-billion-federal-spending-deal-idUSKBN1FS0AY

    & even Trump's ego can possibly force one more shutdown in next few days

    Trump : 'I'd love to see a shutdown' over immigration

    So basically US govt can have 2 or 3 shutdowns in 1 year & still many believe in USD

    submitted by /u/sagar6191
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    Malta, bitcoin day trader

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 03:22 AM PST

    Hi, is it possible to day trade btc/fiat and btc/alt pairs full time in malta without paying any tax, without creating any company ? (if profit goes to a foreign bank account)

    thanks

    submitted by /u/sellthetop
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    Weiss looking bullish. “Cryptocurrencies: Reward, Risk and Reason”

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 05:42 AM PST

    Could be my bias, but Weiss seems bullish on a post-February run for cryptos. Crypto Risk and Reward

    submitted by /u/eighttwosix
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    Poloniex needs verification, Where to buy/sell bitcoin without verification?

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 12:26 AM PST

    Hello. I have 2 problems:. 1. Poloniex now requires verification for Legacy accounts. I dont want to verify. Is there any exchange with simillar coins or some way to be without verification?

    1. Where can I buy and sell Bitcoins or Litecoins without verification. I am looking for small ammounts.

    Thanks.

    submitted by /u/Marekkon5
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    Federal Reserve already looking into blockchain and to decide on faster payments solution by 2020.

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 02:45 AM PST

    https://fasterpaymentstaskforce.org/wp-content/uploads/faster-payments-task-force-final-report-part-two.pdf

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=dswepaTUcrQ

    This is a PDF from the Faster Payments Task Force started by the federal reserve. The video on youtube explains the document briefly as well.

    On page 10 one of their proposals are Ripple. The fed specifically says they are implementing a new payment system by 2020. Explains why Brad himself says hes concerned about 3-5 years and not 3months.

    Big things are coming and it may not be Bitcoin that wins. how does the community feel about this?

    This is by no means about xrp its about how bitcoin can compete with it at this point.

    submitted by /u/ripple_the_kid
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    Can someone explain how the criptotrading future works?

    Posted: 08 Feb 2018 12:37 AM PST

    Specifically, bitmex.

    submitted by /u/Deavege
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    What stage is Bitcoin in?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 10:11 PM PST

    My guess is capitulation? Am I too early? What do you guys think?

    submitted by /u/young_steezy
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    ‘Hodl Nuts’ Are ‘Cyber Terrorists’ and Bitcoin Is Going to Zero: ‘Dr Doom’ Roubini

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 07:56 PM PST

    Earlier this week, Roubini — nicknamed "Dr Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis — unleashed a tweetstorm aimed a floundering Bitcoin and its defiant supporters, or in his words "HODL nuts," "Cryptocrazies," and "Cyber-Terrorists.

    submitted by /u/bitlexa
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    Trying to find a Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency analysis paper that was posted here within the last month. Can someone link me?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 10:44 AM PST

    There was a bitcoin/cryptocurrency analysis paper/pdf that was posted here within the last month or so.

    It made the argument for a good chance of Bitcoin being made into the "store of value" cryptocurrency and others competing for the payment network cryptocurrency. The paper went into detail about Bitcoin capturing a part of the gold as held as an investment market.

    It was 10-30 pages and was made by what seemed to be like a GS stock analyzer, but done on their own time. I also remember the pdf being hosted on what appeared to be an Amazon AWS link, but I assume that there are multiple links to the same pdf.

    Does anyone still have the link to this paper?

    submitted by /u/aviatoraway1
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    Which exchange is first to show a price swing?

    Posted: 07 Feb 2018 10:34 AM PST

    Has anyone done any analysis about the order of which exchange displays major price swings first, and is there a significant lag (seconds? milliseconds?) between exchanges? Logic would say that bigger exchanges get the swings first, and also that whichever part of the world (and whichever exchange is the biggest there) is currently on the sunny side and active, would drive the price?

    I remember when BTC was still only going up how some people posted prices from India and Australia as indicators of whats to come, but cant recall the exact reasoning.

    submitted by /u/Errdee
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