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    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 01, 2018 Bitcoin Markets

    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 01, 2018 Bitcoin Markets


    [Daily Discussion] Thursday, February 01, 2018

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 08:05 PM PST

    Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

    • General discussion related to the day's events
    • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
    • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

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    • Be excellent to each other.
    • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

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    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Current thoughts on BTC and ETH

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 05:31 AM PST

    Hi again, it's been a while since I've chatted with this sub. How have you guys been? I haven't followed this sub at all, but wanted to drop in and have a conversation.

    RE: BTC

    Here is what I think triggered the most recent pull-back:

    An amazing bull run led to plain and simple profit taking, right at the moment futures started trading, causing uncertainty for traders. January saw it get worse as people realize profits between two calendar years for tax purposes. That is, people like me waited to sell the first week of January instead of the last week of December. It was made worse by exchanges momentarily holding up new account creation. Price actioned weakened inflows, and then the narrative changed. Lots of newbs lost money on ripple cause they didn't understand what they were buying. And have likely sworn off crypto for a bit.

    BTC's 5th bubble is behind itself now. Lets look forward to the next, shall we? What comes next?

    Lows so low that suicide hotlines will make front page of r/Bitcoin. So many coworkers and inlaws laughing "I told you so". It will sting. Put your ego aside.

    But, like all bubbles in BTC that have come before, a ton of people got off their ass, submitted the paperwork to open an account, and bought a trivial amount of bitcoin. Just like the first time we all did. 10, 100, maybe 1000 bucks.

    They learned how to find Andreas's "exit sign".

    During 2018 and 2019, the ecosystem is going to mature even more. Lightening or something similar will give bitcoin new utility. I don't care if it doesn't get embraced by starbucks. Some people will find some business model, that works, with LN or equivalent. The market doesn't care if it looks like hub and spoke or a mesh net. Neither will users. There will be a land grab to earn fees by staking on LN. New forms of data will be collected on users. Suddenly, there will be a headline "LN marketcap reaches 1B, is bitcoin useful again?" Then somebody will "stress test" or try to attack LN. It may or may not fall to this. The narritive will turn to "if LN can solve these problems. .." and people will start to speculate again.

    At that point, all the people who bought 10/100/1000 worth during this bubble, now have an account open and be ready to impulse buy 1000s of dollars worth, in one more glorious bull run.

    Exactly ZERO of them have forgotten the 100k price targets that made them dabble in the first place. At this point everybody on the planet will know at least one person who can answer basic questions.

    You are not going to want to sit out the next bull run by trying to catch the bottom, this month or quarter.

    I don't know when we see new highs, but BTC's story is not over yet.

    RE: ETH

    10s of thousands of developers are now funded. They all need ETH to scale. Whenever they figure that out, and they will, real world applications will start to pop up. Only next time, they won't clog the network. Whenever this starts to happen, sky is the limit.

    Institutions like OMERS are triggering FOMO at an institutional level. People with money talk to other people with money. Mike Novogratz, is not wrong. Coibase will enable institutions to buy easily, just like they did for individuals. The herd is coming. I think institutions will FOMO into ETH, I don't they will for BTC unless its to earn a a yield on LN. This has not even started yet.

    Am I wrong? If so, why? Thanks in advance.

    submitted by /u/Just2AddMy2Cents
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    Hard times and perspective

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 09:35 AM PST

    I know many of you are stressing due to the crypto market. Completely understandable. I have about 75% of my life savings tied up in crypto, underwater, so I can relate. I had spent the last several months obsessing over the market, teaching myself TA, and neglecting the love of my life. 2018 has had the most difficult start to any year of my life. When it rains, it pours. My bestfriend/gf left me because I had become increasingly distant, I've lost the comfort of our home, blocks from the beach, and a lot else has begun to unravel. I do not want sympathy, that is not the purpose of this post. I have spent the majority of my life regretting past choices, and worrying about the outcome of the future, and in the process I never learned to live in the moment. I have had very little inner peace. Now, I have much, much less than I did, mere weeks ago, but in the process of losing so much I have been taught a valuable lesson. The lesson is gratitude. Gratitude has been a virtue I have been lacking for far too long; I suspect many others are lacking in it as well. Trust me, learn to be grateful, sooner rather than later. It can shift your entire frame of mind. Perspective is everything. Don't get caught up in what was or what could be. Make the most of what you have in this very moment, in the breath you are currently breathing. Be sure to show those close to you that they are important, and that they are loved. Do something selfless and find something to be grateful for, not tomorrow, today. Don't overinvest in things with no cosmic value, like I have. Invest in yourself, invest in those you care about. Money comes and goes, my friends; it means so little in the grand scheme of things. Take care, and always look at the bigger picture.

    submitted by /u/theycallmetatz
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    Is my 7K lost?

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 01:34 AM PST

    Hey Guy & Gals, hoping for your take here... on 12/16/17 (six weeks ago), I cancelled a .4 BTC limit buy order on GDAX. However, the funds never transferred back to my USD account. I refreshed the page which has worked in the past when funds didn't immediately appear, but this time the funds simply entirely dissapeared. The website was acting glitchy that day....I immediately filed a support ticket (called, etc) w/ GDAX and haven't heard back. My question (if I ever get a response), will they be able to "roll back the tape", to see that I actullay placed & then cancelled a buy order w/ the funds never crediting back, or am I screwed? Thanks for any advice...

    submitted by /u/Ffirgburg
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    How deep can we dip? Suggestions?

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 07:15 AM PST

    Bithumb Being Investigated for Last Years Hacks - News From Korea

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 03:40 AM PST

    The largest crypto exchange in Korea, Bithumb, had visitors today as 10 officials from the Korean Cyber Investigation Unit took materials relation to hacking, and hacking victims. Bithumb was hacked twice last year and due to this 3,1506 users info was stolen and 4918 website account information was stolen. It was found that of these accounts, 266 had cryptocurrency stolen directly from them. The police using this information in order to conduct an investigation into the hacking methods as well as the identity of the hackers.

    If it is found that Bithumb security measures were lacking, then there could be liabilities related to compensation for the hacked accounts.

    These, in addition to the recent investigation by Korean government officials into money laundering at Korean exchanges seems to be creating a trend of Korean officials increasing pressure on any form of criminal activity related to cryptocurrency. This does seem to be having a slightly negative effect on the market, as volumes in Korea have been consistently decreasing for the last week.

    Previously, it was been discovered that Bithumb was placing personal information in an unencrypted file on a personal computer in addition to not keeping software up to date. For this Bithumb paid 100 million Korean won (approx. 3 Million USD) as compensation to the users.

    Source: FN News http://www.fnnews.com/news/201802011830207775

    https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jnem/bithumb-being-investigated-regarding-hacks-last-year

    submitted by /u/jnembit
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    It's either Early 2013 ($250 peak) or Late 2013 ($1200 peak) again

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 07:34 AM PST

    Looking at the bitcoin price from a historical perspective I think it's clear that bitcoin will react in one of two ways moving forward:

    Early 2013 ($250 peak): This mirrors the latest bull run the closest in terms of % gain before the crash. Bitcoin rose from its low of around $2 all the way up to the gigantic bubble of $250 in early 2013, a rise of over 100x. The ensuing crash however was very sharp and quick, down to about $60 and then stabilising at $100 where it stayed until the next bull run... If this is the scenario we can expect BTC to stay around $8-12k for a while until another run to ATH anywhere from $50k-$100k in 2018.

    Late 2013 ($1200 peak): This run up happened relatively quickly after the early 2013 rally to $260 and resulted in a 5x "peak to peak" value, making this less like the most recent bull run we have just had. However, this crash was more similar to the most recent crash, with a more gradual decline truncated by mini recoveries before it grinds down further. If this is the scenario then we can expect the price of BTC to grind down over 2018 and potentially 2019 to anywhere from $1k-$5k at the bottom before completing another mind bending rally to anywhere from $100k-$400k in 2020.

    Either way, despite there being a good chance of the price continuing to go down, I think it's far too dangerous to sell all your stash at current prices.

    submitted by /u/throoooogh
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    Form 1099K Question: How Can you determine how much tax you will pay from it?

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 08:33 PM PST

    It's not really clear what the 1099K means for Coinbase users. If you have a six figure total for example, how do you determine the tax? I mean, you could have a six figure transaction total, but have taken a loss, right?

    submitted by /u/TravelPhoenix
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    Is this theory too absurd?

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 10:01 AM PST

    I feel that since big hands/institutions/whatever came in, thex only wanrsd to Crash this whole crypto Thing with taking as much Profit before as possible

    1.it cant bei a coincidence that the crazy december Pump peaked with Start of First Futures, which ended right when BTC dropped right before that to almost half.

    1. Why would they ever want it to rise up there? All the Players with enough Money to pump it where it was have already done so, now its regulated/restrictded as fk and they can Just Profit on shorting this Thing to the ground. Most funny thing would be shorting it to Zero followed by total illegalization so nobody can Pick Up the cheap coins.

    2. Be honest, the market is completely Controlled by Bots and big hands now; the ones who really believe in this tech and built this are just balles being tossed around.

    Seriously why should this ever rise up again?

    submitted by /u/LeBudSpanka
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    Cex.io registrations open again

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 08:52 PM PST

    No updates on the cex.io blog or stays pages but I managed to register without issue a few hours ago.

    submitted by /u/jpknz
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    Today i got scammed for $2500 BTC. Do you know which exchange's BTC account is this?

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 06:32 AM PST

    Here's the scammers BTC address: 1L8Wvb8FirjdairdWaPvyDAw7j1LzpECJc

    After i tracked down his transactions the payment was made to this large BTC wallet address: 12cgpFdJViXbwHbhrA3TuW1EGnL25Zqc3P

    which i believe might be an exchange. can anyone help me out here?

    submitted by /u/fahadabbaskhan
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    The heads of the SEC and CFTC about crypto regulation

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 06:25 AM PST

    The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Jay Clayton and his colleague from the Commission on the US Commodity Futures Trading (CFTC) Christopher Giancarlo co-wrote a column for the Wall Street Journal about the crypto industry problems it the field of market regulation.

    In particular, it was considered the potential application of the existing legal framework to regulate the economy of digital money.

    Clayton and Giancarlo note, many compare the blockchain technology with a steam engine and the PC, which at one time was the driving force of the economy.

    Cryptocurrency initially positioned as an alternative to fiat money to speed up payments, however, underline the leaders of market regulators, their perception and promotion with a role of investment assets have a negative impact on their native intended function.

    Clayton Giancarlo urged investors to be vigilant because of the high risk, noting that part of the market participants does get a substantial profit. They also compared crypto boom of market with dot-com bubble in the late 1990s.

    At the same time they are not in any way seek to prohibit investments in crypto industry, because they believe that regulators should maintain technological progress. However, Clayton and Giancarlo are concerned that many crypto platforms do not comply with the requirements of the current legislation and do not even registered with the CFTC.

    Most of these platforms have positioned themselves as the payment system and not subject to oversight by the SEC and the CFTC. Thus, according to officials, it is necessary to question the effectiveness of the existing regulatory framework. In addition, they are reminded of the federal legislation is applied not in all cases, which complicates regulation by the federal authorities.

    Running Bitcoin-futures on the CBOE and CME was approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has access to the data for tracking unfair practices on the market. The SEC, in turn, has focused attention on the market of ICO "intends to actively pursue those who break the law in the field of securities."

    Summing up, Clayton and Giancarlo acknowledged that blockchain can improve the performance of economic processes and lead to further technological progress in the financial sector. So, for example, is preparing to launch Safinus platform that will allow investors who have no experience in blockchain industry to invest without risk to become a victim of fraud. It will use a unique mechanism of joining the investment portfolios of experienced investors.

    In addition, the Commission intends to scrutinize the activities of companies that are "suddenly" started to be blockchain based from the traditional business sectors, then their actions demonstrated exponential growth.

    Recall, CFTC recently filed lawsuits against two companies about fraud and deception of cryptocurrency investors.

    submitted by /u/CryptoTrue
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    How is Market Making ever profitable on GDAX?

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 04:45 PM PST

    Unlike most every other exchange that at least has a bid/ask spread of a buck or two, GDAX's is almost always a penny. Market making can't possibly be profitable with a penny spread on a volatile five-figure thing... I don't see how anyone is doing it.

    submitted by /u/ViperRT10Matt
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    Python API for all exchanges?

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 06:15 PM PST

    I'm looking for a Python API that will allow me to get current prices/ price history of coins and make orders across exchanges. Does anything like this exist?

    I've looked into Coinigy but it's hard to get the current prices/price history of coins and actually execute orders

    submitted by /u/ankit77
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    South Korea has no intention to ban cryptocurrency exchanges said the finance minister!

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 11:04 AM PST

    Bitcoin BTC - Feb 1 Detailed Technical Analysis - Short-Medium Term Bear Trend To Continue

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 11:40 PM PST

    https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@philakonecrypto/bitcoin-btc-feb-1-detailed-technical-analysis-short-medium-term-bear-trend-to-continue

    Community, please consider my blog. I currently have 70,000+ followers on Youtube, Twitter, and here combined where my goal is to help improve the crypto community. I provide free TA on request and focus on teaching to improve your trading from an Elliot Wave Theory perspective with advanced strategy.

    submitted by /u/Philakone
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    FYI: Kraken's "mea culpa" zero-fee period is now over

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 04:34 PM PST

    It's 12am UTC, which is now passed. If you had some strategy running that included Kraken, time to uncomment the lines that had the fees. :-)

    submitted by /u/BEAST_CHEWER
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    Some interesting news from India: Finance Ministry "killing" Indian Bitcoin use and Modi's government "loving" blockchain, but not Bitcoin

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 03:51 AM PST

    Quartz recently published some interested reporting on the digital currency situation in India.

    The first article is about how India's Finance Ministry has stated that they are working to "discontinue" the use of Bitcoin and other digital currencies in India.

    Article URL: https://qz.com/1195316/budget-2018-busts-bitcoin-arun-jaitley-has-just-killed-indias-cryptocurrency-party/

    Some nuggets from that article:

    It appears to be the end of the road for cryptocurrencies in India.

    Finance minster Arun Jaitley, in his budget speech today (Feb. 01), stated that the government will do everything to discontinue the use of bitcoin and other virtual currencies in India. He reiterated that India does not recognise them as legal tender and will instead encourage blockchain technology in payment systems.

    "The government does not recognise cryptocurrency as legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate the use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payments system," Jaitley said.

    The other article is about how India's government loves blockchain, but wants to "kill" Bitcoin.

    Article URL: https://qz.com/1148361/budget-2018-indias-government-wants-to-kill-bitcoin-but-it-loves-blockchain/

    Some extracts from that article:

    The Narendra Modi government is looking to oust cryptocurrencies from India but has a lot of affection for blockchain.

    The distributed ledger technology is becoming a hot favourite in Asia's third-largest economy for solidifying information, alerting all stakeholders, and preventing tampering. So much so that, in his budget speech on Feb. 01, finance minister Arun Jaitley announced plans to adopt blockchain technology.

    "The government will explore use of blockchain technology proactively for ushering in the digital economy," Jaitley said.

    Most commonly known as the technology underpinning the likes of bitcoin and Ether (of Ethereum-fame), blockchain is a digitised and decentralised public ledger of all cryptocurrency transactions. Stripping away the financial application, blockchain is essentially a bookkeeping platform that can be accessed by anybody on the internet but is owned by nobody.

    Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/dnivi3
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    [Coinbase] Email from Track1099.com about form 1099-K is legit

    Posted: 31 Jan 2018 08:47 PM PST

    For 10 years, hackers managed to steal more than $ 1.2 billion in cryptocurrency

    Posted: 01 Feb 2018 05:43 AM PST

    Cybersecurity experts believe that cryptocurrency, wallets and blockchain infrastructure is not so well protected against hackers, as is commonly believed. Proof of what has been said is the fact that for 10 years the attackers were able to steal more than $ 1.2 billion in cryptocurrency. It is clear that a change in the course of coins may vary, but the fact remains - stolen money was enough to be able to speak with confidence about the vulnerability of the crypto industry.

    By the way, this month cryptocurrency Bitcoin turned nine years. Infrastructure of that cryptocurrency was created (as far as can be judged) to create maximum protection from external interference. In general, this plan failed - there is no successful cases of attacks on blockchain. But here's the Bitcoin ecosystem elements, including users' computers or exchanges - they are vulnerable.

    If all the stolen cryptocurrency could be counted in dollars now, the amount of actual losses would amount to tens of billions of US dollars.

    According to other experts, not just Bitcoin, but other systems, quite vulnerable to hacking. This is largely dependent on the size of the network and the number of miners, which ensure normal functioning of the whole ecosystem. Many of blockchain still small, so for the intruder, if he desired, there is no problem affect the operation of such systems. Plus, there are errors in the code. Which lead to potential vulnerabilities.In either case, use of blockchain have problems. The more of blockchains we have, the harder it is to ensure their safety. It may be reasonable to wait until the market settles down and left several leaders, so that other cryptocurrency and their infrastructure will go into oblivion.

    Security issues are also the ICO. Only in 2017 as a result of the attacks had been stolen more than $ 300 million equivalent. And it is only in the case of known attacks, many of them remained outside the attention of crypto security professionals.

    Hackers attention is now divided between crypto accounts and banks. This year, information security experts expect an increase in the number of hacking attempts both banking systems and crypto systems of different types.

    Digital currency is just beginning to gain momentum. Today, investors have to be very careful to protect themselves from high risks. However, in general crypto industry grows, there are services and tools for regulation and protection from frauders and hackers. So, for example, is preparing to launch Safinus platform that will allow investors who have no experience in crypto industry to invest without risk to become a victim of fraud. It will use a unique mechanism of joining the investment portfolios of experienced investors.

    Gradually blockchain ecosystem will create the immune system against unscrupulous community members. Market will not only improve itself, but also ICO investments flow will be distributed in favor of really useful for crypto industry projects, and investors will be able to earn more and with more secure.

    submitted by /u/CryptoTrue
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